adam

An interesting tie in with the 2025 draft is Fields' play in 2024. Also, since PIT declined his 5th-year option, he will be a free agent in 2025. So technically, the Steelers could get back a comp pick for him in 2026 if he signs a big enough deal with another team, which could negate the pick they traded to the Bears in 2025 (a year later).

They can also wait to see what they have at Center with Shelton and Bates.

OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching. It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria: HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023 DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022 CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018 Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams. Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff. The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective.

We have been talking around this for awhile, but the Bears finished 7-11 and had 3 terrible losses that they shouldn't have had. The team has improved from last year and has the last place schedule. Those factors all point to at least 2-3 more wins this year. Then I saw a tweet from OTC linking one of their articles. In this article, OTC was explaining how they were valuing future draft picks based on previous trade values. However, one interesting table got my attention that wasn't related to the subject of the article. It basically breaks down teams by last year's record, then the average increase or decrease in wins based on their draft picks. Typically worse teams improved more because they are had more room to improve, but also because they drafted better players. So why does this matter? Essentially the Bears got the value of the Panthers pick as a 2-win team AND the value of their own pick as a 7-win team. A team with 0-4.5 wins improves by 3.4 wins while a team with 5-7.5 wins improves by 0.76 wins. Just by using this formula alone, by adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears will improve by no less than 3 wins, but more than likely 4 wins when you take into account the other moves (Allen, Byard, etc). https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks Bookmark this and come back in January (again). Bears are winning 10-11 this year.

The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs. In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.

Things are really lining up for 2025 perfectly. With 3 picks in the first two rounds, the Bears can insert 3x blue chippers and bump others down. I assume that will be all in the trenches, with at least one on each line. So 3 starters from this year will be gone or in backup roles.

With $3.1M cap savings and the drafting of Amegajie, Borom seems like the odd man out. Gaining over $3M in cap space would put the Bears back in the top 10 for cap space (currently 12th) which would allow them to bring in another DT and DE with room to spare. Other roster casualties from my perspective are: Robinson, Gill, and possibly Homer and/or Velus. The last two will be ST dependent.

These seem like the most likely guys to make the 53-man roster: Brenden Bates, TE (still need a TE3) Keith Randolph, DT (still need another DT) Jamree Kromah, DE (could replace Robinson who has been ineffective so far) Theo Benedet, OL (would be a back end replacement for someone like Borom ($3.1M cap savings))

I am always surprised how some of these guys don't get drafted. 10 sacks on a top 25 team with a high RAS. What is not to like?

Yeah Getsy to Waldron is a significant improvement as well, I forgot all about Getsy.

That would be insane. There were only 4 teams to have a top 10 offense and defense last year, they finished 1, 2, 4, 5 in overall DVOA. Their average W/L was 12-5. Two of them played in the SB, and 3 of 4 played in the Conference Finals. So there is heavy correlation between top 10 DVOA and overall outcomes. BAL - 1 / 4 / 1 SF - 2 / 1 / 4 DAL - 4 / 9 / 5 KC - 5 / 8 / 7 This is how the Bears finished, but the last 12 weeks they were a top 5 defense: CHI - 22 / 22 / 17

The Bears went from Fields, Foreman, Mooney, St. Brown, Tonyan, Whitehair, and Patrick to Williams, Swift, Allen, Odunze, Everett, Bates, and Shelton in one offseason. It is hard to see this not being a top 12 offense. According to DVOA, the Bears had the 22nd best offense last year. 10 spots seems like a huge leap, but when you improve in every position group, 10 spots seems possible. If the team went 7-11 with 3 terrible losses, 10 wins seems like the floor as they should've had 10 last season. Playing the last place schedule, there are not many dominant teams on their schedule.

+1 yard in Net punting = 7 pts. Gill was dead last. Just say Taylor add 2 yds onto that number. That equates to 14 pts on the season, which would've probably added 2 wins to the team last year. Also, some are speculating that he could also be the kickoff guy if he can kick like he punts, pinning teams deep in their own zone. So we will have to see how it plays out. If he is a top 5 punter for the next decade, great pick. If he is middle of the road or worse, probably a bad pick because most of the top 10 punters are UDFAs right now.

We actually did pretty good. Our consensus draft got 5 correct, and 8 of 10 of the picks in the top 10. Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, and Nabers (5/10 correct) Alt, Odunze and McCarthy in top 10 (8/10 in the top 10) Turner and Bowers not in top 10 Latham and Penix in top 10

They would be awesome if Fields plays that much, but Wilson is not terrible. He would have to have a few bad games in a row before they replace him.

The 5th they got back was the one they used for Bates. So technically they now have traded a 2025 4th for Ryan Bates. With the potential of 3x 6ths, I can see them using one or two of them to move up in the 4th or 5th round (or to the back of the previous round).

I just like the fact that Williams was reaching out to the other draft picks right after they were selected.

He had more punting yards then the Iowa offense had yards last year, lol. He has some unique technique to ensure coffin corner punts pop back to the coverage team and not roll into the end zone. He is top 10 in pretty much every punting category all-time for college football. He led the nation in 2023 in punts, punt yards, and was 3rd in Average.

I have read a few articles that said he is athletic enough to slide inside. So he could compete with Jones at LT or Davis at G. Since Jenkins can play both sides. They could slide Jenkins to RG and have Amegadjie play LG (if he is better on the left). So now they have options.

Yeah he is still a work in progress, look at his tape from the Senior Bowl and what he did to Jordan Morgan (GBs new G) in the 1v1 drills. That game was in September, and he constantly improved throughout the year. In that game he had 1.5 TFL and 0.5 sacks.

Absolutely, most mocks and big boards had him in the top 100. Dane Brugler had Booker at #78 in The Beast. So to get him for a future 4th, which may end up being in the 120s range, is a great value.

He could've swapped the picks and they would've been just as good. Booker probably should've went in the 4th, but the assumption was Taylor would not have lasted into the 5th.

In the 2025 draft, with 3 picks in the first two rounds, it seems like DL and OL will be the targets. That would add 3x blue chippers to the trenches.

With the draft picks locked in for 2024, here is the before and after by position: Offense: QB - [Fields > Williams*] RB - [Foreman > Swift*] WR - [Mooney > Allen*] / [St. Brown > Odunze*] / [Taylor > Pettis] TE - [Tonyan > Everett*] IOL - [Patrick > Shelton*] / [Whitehair > Bates*] / [Feeney > Curhan*] / [X > Amegadjie] Defense: DE - [Green > Martin*] / [Ngakoue > Booker*] LB - [Cole > Ogbongbemiga*] DB - [Blackwell > Owens*] FS - [Jackson > Byard*] P - [Gill > Taylor*] Holes remaining: DT - [Jones > X] TE - [Lewis > X] It seems like Poles literally took every underperforming player and got rid of them this offseason, and replaced them with an instant upgrade. The roster really only needs a rotational DT/3T and TE3. There are probably a couple of end of the 53-man juggling, but that would be at DT4/5 and DE4/5. After that, the roster looks really solid. QB - Williams, Bagent, Rypien - both backups with starting experience RB - Swift, Herbert, Johnson, Homer, Blasingame - 2 RBs with starting experience TE - Kmet, Everett, Vet FA - TE1A and TE1B WR - Moore, Allen, Odunze, Scott, Jones, Pettis - Arguably WR1A, 1B, and 1C OT - Wright, Jones, Amegadjie, Borom - 4 out of 5 OL subs have started games OG - Jenkins, Davis, Curhan, Carter, Pryor - If they go with best 5, there is a chance Davis gets cut OC - Shelton, Bates DT - Billings, Dexter, Pickens, Cowart, Vet FA - Still could use a player or two to upgrade DT4/5 DE - Sweat, Booker or Walker, Martin, Kareem, Robinson - One vet away from being solid at DE4 LB - Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Ogbongbemiga, Hardy - Solid group CB - Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Jones, Stroman - CB6 would be only change S - Brisker, Byard, Owens, Hicks, Johnson - S4/5 would be only change here P - Taylor - Pro Bowl Punter K - Santos - Pro Bowl Kicker PS - Scales Starters in bold. My projection is adding a vet DT, DE, and TE3, with possibly a new backup S to compete with Hicks/Johnson.

Booker was a top 100 player, so getting him for next year's pick in the 120s is good value.