adam

There have been a few periods with 2 WRs, but never 3. Odunze is a WR1 on at least 10 teams, a WR2 on all but 5-6 teams, and the top WR3 in the NFL. That may not seem like a big deal, but if Allen or Moore miss any time, the drop off won't be massive like it normally is.

They have Stroud 10th on this list, but also have Rodgers at 8. If you look at skill position players, Stroud had Collins and Dell as his top 2 WRs where Williams has Moore and Allen AND Odunze. So Stroud's performance last year should be Williams floor to be honest.

True, but QBR is also roster-based, he is obviously producing elite numbers due to his performance with his supporting cast and coaching.

Caleb comes in at #19, between Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. This feels like a pretty fair spot to start at, though, I think he will be closer to to 10 than top 20. I think he will be better than Murray, Smith, and Lawrence at least. Lawrence at #12 seems too high for me. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2024-nfl-season

I don't know if the Bears have ever had 3 top 30 WRs on the same roster. I think Allen is probably a little low and Odunze a little high (for a rookie) but regardless, this is impressive nonetheless. #12 - Moore #22 - Allen #29 - Odunze https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-wide-receiver-rankings-top-32-ahead-of-the-2024-nfl-season

The team's track record against good/great QBs is not good. Hopefully the offense will help that, but the best QB a Flus defense ever beat was Goff. Besides Goff, in the other 6 wins, they faced Howell, Hoyer, Young, Dobbs, Murray, and Heinicke. In 2022, it was Lance, Mills, and Zappe. So in Flus' 10 wins, only Goff, Murray, and Young are still starting QBs. That scares me a little bit. Here is what this season's QBs look like: 1 - Levis 2 - Stroud #15 3 - Richardson 4 - Stafford #6 5 - Young #29 6 - Lawrence #17 8 - Daniels/Mariota 9 - Murray #22 10 - Maye/Brissett 11 - Love #9 12 - McCarthy/Darnold 13 - Goff #11 14 - Purdy #1 15 - McCarthy/Darnold 16 - Goff #11 17 - Smith #14 18 - Love #9 4 games against top 10 QBs (Purdy, Lovex2, Stafford) ----------------------------------- 6 games against QBs from 11th-22nd ----------------------------------- 1 game against bottom 10 QBs (Young) 6 games against QBs without a QBR from 2023 I know it is not that easy, but just say the Bears lose the 4 against the top 10 QBs, split the middle games, and win all at the bottom, that is still a 10 win team without having to beat an elite QB. So just say they do and beat Love at least once, now you are lookin at an 11+ win team.

I think we know the answer on both of them as neither are here. Fields did not improve last year or take the expected leap that everyone, even myself, thought he would take. The one thing that stood out to me amongst a bunch was the fact that Fields could not work with more than one WR. Mooney had 1K yards, has great rapport with Fields on and off the field in 2022, then Moore shows up and Mooney becomes a ghost. People blamed Getsy, but I think that was Fields not being able to hit Mooney if he wasn't the first read. In a weird way, Nagy got a fairly quick hook. I didn't care for his play calling, but it's interesting that he got fired with a winning record and his worst season was 6 wins (his only losing season). So Flus is in Year 3 and has yet to match Nagy's 3rd best season or in 2 seasons Flus' 10 wins is still 2 fewer than Nagy's in 2018 alone.

Here is a cool way to look at the schedule, solely based on net rest. I don't know how much it correlates to more or less success, but the Bears are tied for 8th and have 3 games with more rest and 2 games with less rest than their opponents: Games with extra rest: +7 days @WSH, +3 days @SF, +3 days @ GB Games with less rest: -7 days vs GB, -1 vs @DET The away games with less rest seems to be the worst, and the Bears only get one game that fits that criteria (@DET with 1 less day of rest), which seems positive. They also get 3 other road games with extra rest, which should help for games on the road. I don't like giving GB an extra week to prepare of us though. That one sucks. With 2 THU games late in the season, the Bears do play 6 games in 32 days (basically every 5 games), I feel like that might catch up to them in late December.

Very cool. I am glad he got over the substance abuse stuff as that stuff is sticky. Here is the article if you can't see it at the Trib: https://www.aol.com/kofi-hughes-used-football-hide-110000505.html

Locking Goff in for a top 5 QB deal is great for the entire NFC North. Once he gets hit, it's game over. I know they had no choice and the Bears would do the same thing in a heart beat, but Goff is turning 30. Injury risk increases every year and he is already a statue. The one thing the media doesn't talk about is the actual cap hit for Goff. It is relatively the same for the next two years, then balloons to over $69M in 2026 (24% of the cap), $54M in 2027, and $61M in 2028. So they really have the next two years or they will look at a restructure after two years. The problem they are going to have is St. Brown's new deal and Sewell's new deal also balloon in 2026 (to $29M and $32M respectively). So between those 3, they will have a $130M cap hit in 2026 (45% of the cap). If you add Hutchinson's 5th year option and Glasgow, those top 5 players would take up over 56% of the cap in 2026 with very little wiggle room. They are going to have to shed a ton of salary over the course of the next two seasons while basically resigning none of their current players.

All the signs are there for a breakout year, but it is still on paper. Injuries are going to be the most important thing. Then obviously the play of Caleb, the O-Line and the D-Line. The Bears, just like other teams, need a little luck, or most things to go right to have a great year. I think what most see that now that the QB position may not be the limiting factor, the sky is the limit. I still think they are a year away, but nothing is stopping them from having a Texans type of season with a playoff win. The crazy part for me is, if the Bears lose, I can almost guarantee you it is because the defense allowed 28+, not because the offense couldn't score 20. The Bears will be undefeated when the defense holds opponents under 20.

I was assuming the Bears would be up for several flex games later in the season. The last 8 weeks are going to be tough with 6 division games + SEA and SF. Going 4-4 in those 8 would be huge and required for the playoffs. I am hoping they can start fast and go 7-2 or 8-1, which would be crazy but very possible. I assume 7-2 and 6-3 is the most realistic, but HOU is the only really tough game. LAR is in CHI, and for IND, it would be Week 3 with Richardson coming off injury. If the Bears start 8-1 before playing GB, Williams will be the leading MVP and OPoY candidate, Flus CotY, and Poles EotY. That would be the 2023 win total in 8 games. Not playing the division games until later is a good thing for the Bears. Williams will have 9 games plus the bye before playing GB. That also means the defense will have that much more tape on Love and Co.

OK, after evaluating the first minicamp practice, my predictions for Williams are as follows: 387-574, 67.4%, 4362 yds, 7.6 Y/A, 37 TD, 7 INT Bookmark this and come back here in January. I have a feeling he is going to be a top 5 QB out the door. Comparing him to Trevor Lawrence, Williams is already months ahead in development at this point.

1 net yard on punts adds almost 2 pts per game, so there is correlation between field position and outcomes. Gill was terrible and was a bottom 3 player on the 53-man roster. It sucks they had to use a 4th to get him, but they got Booker in the 5th which sort of makes up for the reach on Taylor.

This guy is something else. I know you don't win press conferences, but man, his responses are literally night and day compared to Fields, Trubisky, Cutler. It is honestly refreshing.

How so? He seems like the 7th option on offense right now behind Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet, Everett, and Swift.

It starts today. We will finally get "real" news on our rooks. Can't wait to hear about Taylor!

DJ was at the Cubs game with him, Odunze wasnt'. DJ also lives in the area and has a family. I think it is much to do about nothing. DJ has had some of the worst QB situations since being drafted, and now he finally has a real QB. I don't think him not being everywhere Caleb is at is an issue. Keenan is also new to the area, so he clearly is taking advantage of the new fans and area.

$5M in cap savings if they cut Borom and Homer, that would bump the Bears up to $17.5M in effective cap. They always leave some operating income, so that would probably leave them to sign a guy or two up to 9-10M in total.

So a lot of people are now using AI for season projections. Here the 33rd Team has all 3 of the Bears top WRs getting over 1K yards. If you add Kmet, Everett, Swift, Herbert, Johnson, and Scott, Williams would have close to 5K passing yards. Also, as a disclaimer, AI is very accurate, so at least 50% of the time, these predictions will be 100% accurate.

So traditionally our defense has played against a bad offense in practice. Now they are going to get some real competition, which should make them even better. Another added benefit of this offseason's acquisitions.

Looking at DVOA from last year, the Bears had the 22nd offense and 17th defense for the season. Here is how the rest of the North looked: DET 5th/13th GB 6th/27th MIN 23rd/11th So just say the offense gets to 15th (right at league average), and the defense improves to a top 10 defense (they were top 5 the last 7 weeks of last year). That would put them at 15th/10th. There were 3 teams to finish in the teens in both offense and defense last year, HOU, NO, and JAX. That should be a 10-7 record. Now looking at the other teams, DET's offense looks to be exactly the same, and based on previous seasons, most teams have a dip, so I expect DET to be top 10, but not top 5, say 8th. On defense, they should be slightly better, say 12th. That would put them at 8th/12th, and probably atop the division again. This is 11-12 wins. For GB, this will be interesting. They finished with the 6th offense and 27th defense. I feel like their offense is going to come down to earth, say 10th, and their defense will be better, say 22nd. That would put them at 10th/22nd. This is 8-9 wins. Lastly we have MIN, their offense was terrible last year and now has a rookie QB. I think they will be worse on offense, say 25th, and their defense is going to stay exactly the same at 11th. So 25th/11th. This is 6-7 wins. So with the factual scientific data output, we get: Lions 11-6 #2 Seed Bears 10-7 WC1 Packers 8-9 Vikings 6-11

AZ, I am sorry for your loss. Getting old sucks. I lost my dad 10 years ago and my mom is hanging in there but getting close.

I would have liked a better option at Center, that is my only gripe right now. I am assuming they will bring in a vet Edge and DT to fill out the rotation on defense. The only position I don't like is Center with Bates/Shelton. The only saving grace is Shelton started the entire year for the Rams, so at least we know the floor.

It feels like Williams is wired differently. He doesn't give a crap about the Bears passing records, he is going for league passing records while carrying his team to the playoffs and winning often. I will say this, if the Bears make it to the playoffs, they are going to be a hard out.