ARob's Tag

[adam]

The Franchise Tag's deadline is tomorrow.

The new league year starts on March 17th (next Wednesday), so the Bears will have to get under the cap by that date. 

If they tag ARob, they would have to shed a ton of salary to get under the cap in a week. The only options I see are the following:

1. Franchise Tag and renegotiate a long-term deal to lessen the cap hit in 2021.

2. Tag and trade

3. Let him go to free agency, but still work a deal with him

4. Let him go, don't pursue

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I saw some murmurs last week that the Jets and he had some level of mutual interest.  Would option 2 work best to the Bears’ favor?  I don’t like the ideal if it could mean a trade involving Darnold.

 

[adam]

I guess it will come down to the QB situation and if we can even afford ARob going forward.

[Stinger226]

 I heard today that because they have not established the cap for next year yet, they move tag deadline one week. 

[BearFan PHX]

41 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

 I heard today that because they have not established the cap for next year yet, they move tag deadline one week. 

hmmm, thanks for sharing that, I didnt know and was starting to wonder where all the tags where.

[Mongo3451]

If we can't secure a decent QB, I vote for tag and trade.

[McGowan]

16 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

If we can't secure a decent QB, I vote for tag and trade.

Agreed. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

45 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

If we can't secure a decent QB, I vote for tag and trade.

I think ultimately this is the best option.  Whether it be Wilson, Watson or top 20 draft then I'd say 'goodbye' to Robinson. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

11 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

hmmm, thanks for sharing that, I didnt know and was starting to wonder where all the tags where.

I just heard Schefter on ESPN - as of now - he is saying all indications are the league the deadline is going to stay tomorrow (Tuesday). Doesn't seem like the league wants to push things back - despite the cap uncertainty.  

[Stinger226]

17 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

If we can't secure a decent QB, I vote for tag and trade.

IF they are going for it to save their jobs, why would they tag him and trade him? There are a few good WRs out there in FA but they will cost almost as much as the tag. I was reading where they might be able to get a 2nd for him but more likely a 3rd because of the money he will cost. There is only a handful of teams with the ability to sign expensive players. Most teams have cap issues. So why wouldnt they just sign Golliday-Godwin-JuJu instead of giving up draft capital for an expensive player.

[Mongo3451]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

IF they are going for it to save their jobs, why would they tag him and trade him? There are a few good WRs out there in FA but they will cost almost as much as the tag. I was reading where they might be able to get a 2nd for him but more likely a 3rd because of the money he will cost. There is only a handful of teams with the ability to sign expensive players. Most teams have cap issues. So why wouldnt they just sign Golliday-Godwin-JuJu instead of giving up draft capital for an expensive player.

So, you want to keep Robinson and pay his high price if Foles is throwing to him.  Do you think that is "going for it"?  I don't. 

As to the last part, you have a partial point.  Robinson is better than all of those receivers.  At 27, he is in his prime for another 5 years, we least.  Also, those other receivers are going to get less money, but not way less.  I'd give up a pick if I needed a reliable number one receiver.

[adam]

So with the tag, are the Bears going to:

1. Play him under the tag? (highly unlikely due to cap hit)

2. Renegotiate a long term contract (likely due to cap hit)

3. Trade before draft (also a possibility, probably depends on QB)

[Mongo3451]

23 minutes ago, adam said:

So with the tag, are the Bears going to:

1. Play him under the tag? (highly unlikely due to cap hit)

2. Renegotiate a long term contract (likely due to cap hit)

3. Trade before draft (also a possibility, probably depends on QB)

Depends on QB.  Best case scenario is upgraded QB and four year contract.

[Stinger226]

On 3/9/2021 at 7:06 AM, Mongo3451 said:

So, you want to keep Robinson and pay his high price if Foles is throwing to him.  Do you think that is "going for it"?  I don't. 

As to the last part, you have a partial point.  Robinson is better than all of those receivers.  At 27, he is in his prime for another 5 years, we least.  Also, those other receivers are going to get less money, but not way less.  I'd give up a pick if I needed a reliable number one receiver.

IF the Bears dont have a winning record this year, Pace and Nagy are probably both gone. They are trying to obtain a different QB room, whether that succeeds or not, getting a 3rd round pick for AROB  doesnt really say(going for it). I would take AROB over all but maybe Godwin being he is younger and will be around a 16-18 mil a year guy. Where as AROB will be 20-22 mil a year guy. If I was a GM, I would not have to think about that very long. (not giving up draft capital, paying less to a younger guy)

[Stinger226]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

So with the tag, are the Bears going to:

1. Play him under the tag? (highly unlikely due to cap hit)

2. Renegotiate a long term contract (likely due to cap hit)

3. Trade before draft (also a possibility, probably depends on QB)

Likely playing under the tag but depends on what they do at QB. If they can get a Winston 7-9 mil, then they may find the money to pay him. If they luck out and get a crazy trade, the money will be gone. (paying the tag or 20-22 mil on a new contract) It will have a domino affect.

[Mongo3451]

I heard that Robinson is wanting Hopkins money and will not sign the tag.  This could be ugly.  At this point, tag his ass till he's 30.

[Stinger226]

IF he signs the tag now, then if he misses any practices, he can be fined. He doesnt have to sign it until summer, so their no rush on his part. He can not like it, but this happens all the time. They say he wants 20-22 mil a year. Only a handful of teams have the money to do that. As other WRs get signed and his options disappear he will sign it. 

[Mongo3451]

41 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

IF he signs the tag now, then if he misses any practices, he can be fined. He doesnt have to sign it until summer, so their no rush on his part. He can not like it, but this happens all the time. They say he wants 20-22 mil a year. Only a handful of teams have the money to do that. As other WRs get signed and his options disappear he will sign it. 

I read 25mil.

[adam]

The tag is the max the Bears would pay for him to play, so any extended deal with have less of a cap hit, at least in 2021. So if that is the case with him wanting $25M, expect a trade before or on draft day.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The tag is the max the Bears would pay for him to play, so any extended deal with have less of a cap hit, at least in 2021. So if that is the case with him wanting $25M, expect a trade before or on draft day.

this seems likely. maybe he will play 2021 under the tag and then go, but your scenario here is at least equally likely, probably more.

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I read 25mil.

4 WRs are making over 20 mil a year.  Hopkins is making 12.5 this year and 25 mil next year.  He deserves over 20 mil but he is not in Hopkins price range. 

[Mongo3451]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

4 WRs are making over 20 mil a year.  Hopkins is making 12.5 this year and 25 mil next year.  He deserves over 20 mil but he is not in Hopkins price range. 

Completely agree.  He catches a lot of balls, but most of them are contested.  It shows he's either not getting good separation or the QB is late.  His numbers show that he's top five, but I can name more than five I would rather have.

[jason]

I'm not even sure he deserves over 20M. He's a very good possession receiver on a team with minimal receiver talent, and an easily rattled QB who zeroes in on his #1 receiver before even saying the word hike. His volume and production - third most targets in the NFL - is by default more than anything else. 

[Stinger226]

Cory Davis signed for 3-37.5 mil. He is not as good as AROB but definitely would have been cheaper. Nelson Agholor signed 2-26 mil. I can see where he wants over 20 mil a year the problem is we dont have the money. This is the part of FA you dont want to be a part of , where most are getting more money than they are worth. Out of everyone out there, I think AROB was the best option, Goloday hasnt signed yet , Goodwin got tagged, so we will see what they get.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Cory Davis signed for 3-37.5 mil. He is not as good as AROB but definitely would have been cheaper. Nelson Agholor signed 2-26 mil. I can see where he wants over 20 mil a year the problem is we dont have the money. This is the part of FA you dont want to be a part of , where most are getting more money than they are worth. Out of everyone out there, I think AROB was the best option, Goloday hasnt signed yet , Goodwin got tagged, so we will see what they get.

Davis at $12.5 doesn't even put him in the top 20 WR deals (for AAV), so that was actually a pretty solid deal for the Jets. Michael Thomas makes $19.25M, Tyreek Hill makes $18M, so the tag value of $17.98M is about right for ARob. I wouldn't mind a deal that averages $20M per year as long as this year was $15M.