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Rookie QBs


adam
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This was not a good week for rookie QBs, all of them lost and played bad:

Fields 6-20, 68 yds, 0 TD vs CLE (0-1 as a starter)
Wilson 19-35, 160 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT vs DEN (0-3 as a starter)
Lawrence 22-34, 219 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT vs ARZ (0-3 as a starter)
Jones 30-51, 270 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT vs NO (1-2 as a starter)

Fields the only one without a INT.

BTW, KC is 1-2 and last in their division. IND is 0-3 and somehow behind HOU in their division. 

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I know there’s been countless articles written on the pros and cons of starting rookie quarterbacks. All I can offer is you really got to have a solid team around them I think; especially at the o line. If they’re running for their lives and getting sacked left and right, it won’t matter how good the receivers are.

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1 hour ago, adam said:

Lawrence and Wilson both with 7 INTs thru 3 games. On pace for 2nd most INTs thrown in a season. Essentially a historically bad start for both and they practiced with their 1s for months. Jones had 3 INTs today too. 

Fields looked worse through 1.5 games than Trubisky ever did. 

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8 hours ago, McGowan said:

Fields looked worse through 1.5 games than Trubisky ever did. 

Oh I agree. However, I think this shows you just how bad Nagy is than Fields. Could Fields have played better, absolutely, but within this offense and those play calls, I don't know how much better. We have Fields for a minimum of 4 years. Let's see what we got. Mitch got that. Nagy needs to go. Not a single play designed to help his QB out.

Mitch was also never under that type of assault. Where is the max protect, the moving pocket? Garrett and Clowney knew exactly where they needed to go on every play. 

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I don't have the stats exact but on twenty drop backs the had 5 oline only to block.  Where end two or three tight ends back there to chip, stay in protection?  Even when running the the ball.  After the first quarter they should of gone max on every play no matter what.  Did not even try moving the pocket until midway thru the 2nd qt.

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18 minutes ago, Bill said:

I don't have the stats exact but on twenty drop backs the had 5 oline only to block.  Where end two or three tight ends back there to chip, stay in protection?  Even when running the the ball.  After the first quarter they should of gone max on every play no matter what.  Did not even try moving the pocket until midway thru the 2nd qt.

Dan Orlovsky on ESPN breaking down the Bears game film says the Bears only called 2 RPOs and didn't max protect on any pass attempt and Miles Garrett said that he was surprised that Fields was not move out of the pocket and said it was easier to know where he was going to be.

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1 hour ago, lemonej said:

Dan Orlovsky on ESPN breaking down the Bears game film says the Bears only called 2 RPOs and didn't max protect on any pass attempt and Miles Garrett said that he was surprised that Fields was not move out of the pocket and said it was easier to know where he was going to be.

Like built in GPS.  Let's just meet at the spots every play.  It doesn't really mater who built the team, players on the roster, the play of everyone,, and I think they all have to change or play better.  When the HC can't scheme or call plays any better then that the HC has to be the first to go.  He's proven he can 't coach up anyone or call plays that will work no matter what the personnel is.  He can't be trusted to turn Fields into anything except another MT.

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8 hours ago, adam said:

Oh I agree. However, I think this shows you just how bad Nagy is than Fields. Could Fields have played better, absolutely, but within this offense and those play calls, I don't know how much better. We have Fields for a minimum of 4 years. Let's see what we got. Mitch got that. Nagy needs to go. Not a single play designed to help his QB out.

Mitch was also never under that type of assault. Where is the max protect, the moving pocket? Garrett and Clowney knew exactly where they needed to go on every play. 

 

2 hours ago, lemonej said:

Dan Orlovsky on ESPN breaking down the Bears game film says the Bears only called 2 RPOs and didn't max protect on any pass attempt and Miles Garrett said that he was surprised that Fields was not move out of the pocket and said it was easier to know where he was going to be.

Hmmmm

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  • 1 month later...
1 hour ago, BearFan2000 said:

The sad stat in that is that completing 7 passes of 15 yards or more in a single game hasn't happened in over 15 years.  

Ah yes, the year was 2006.  Lovie was the HC and Grossman was the QB.  The same year we last went to a Super Bowl. Those were good times.  How many "offensive genius/QB whisperer" HC's have we had since then?  

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I truly believe we are lucky to have Fields. Beyond watching Fields grow (and he has grown tremendously in first 6 games) -> the next thing to watch carefully is Borom and Jenkins. If the Bears somehow hit on those 2 -> oh man, everything gets a lot better around the foundation.  I have posted this a few times and I know the record will not be good, but I am genuinely excited to watch the 2nd half of the season. 

 

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21 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I truly believe we are lucky to have Fields. Beyond watching Fields grow (and he has grown tremendously in first 6 games) -> the next thing to watch carefully is Borom and Jenkins. If the Bears somehow hit on those 2 -> oh man, everything gets a lot better around the foundation.  I have posted this a few times and I know the record will not be good, but I am genuinely excited to watch the 2nd half of the season. 

 

The young core is there and showed up on MNF. Fields, Monty, Herbert, Mooney, Kmet, and Borom all played well. If they can fix the interior (get a stud Center) and Jenkins plays as advertised. This offense is 2-3 pieces away from being dominant. Need a true WR1 and a C for sure. I would like to see James come back too but try something different at WR. Need a true slot guy that can get open in a phone booth. 

I was worried about Kmet, but in his last 4 games, he has really produced and has been a solid blocker. Last 4 games: 18-203 yds equates to an old 16 game season total of 72-812 yds. His per game average over those games is 4.5 receptions and 50 yds. If he can average that for the remainder of the season, he will end with 64-643 yds. That would put him near Hockenson and Engram's totals from last year (5th in receptions and 8th in yards). Now we need to see some additional RZ targets and TDs. I was not expecting him to be a top 5 TE, so that would be impressive if he keeps it up.

I know it is still a week away, but I like the Baltimore matchup for our offense. They are 26th in DVOA compared to PIT at 13. Baltimore's defense is on par with Miami and Jacksonville's. Their offense is very similar to SF's. The Bears offense is slowly climbing out of the ashes, now 29th in DVOA, but only 2% from 25th. On defense, the Bears have plummeted from top 10 down to 19tt but are also within 2% of 13th. So a good game against BAL would more than likely bump them up to 25th/13th respectively. If Fields can keep this offense score in the mid to high 20's, I figure they can sneak into the top 20 offensively. That would make them look a lot like TEN.

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22 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I truly believe we are lucky to have Fields. Beyond watching Fields grow (and he has grown tremendously in first 6 games) -> the next thing to watch carefully is Borom and Jenkins. If the Bears somehow hit on those 2 -> oh man, everything gets a lot better around the foundation.  I have posted this a few times and I know the record will not be good, but I am genuinely excited to watch the 2nd half of the season. 

 

I wanted the Bears to trade up to 4 (clearly not doable with the draft picks we had) to get Fields. I am a huge college guy and follow high school recruiting, I followed Lawernce and Fields in highschool. Im also an Ohio State fan so I really followed Field weekly while there. I think if you had the first pick you had to take Trevor Lawrence, behind him i had Fields number 2 but you could really put them 1A and 1B. When Fields wasn't taken with the first 3 picks i was freaking out. Each pick that didnt take Fields i got more excited. I couldn't believe he fell to 11. 

 

 

We are very lucky to have gotten him and at 11 to boot. I think he could be a very special player in the NFL. I pray the Bears do whatever it takes to develop him. 

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9 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Lol, I was thinking about how our D matches up against what Lamar does.  I'm putting money on this game if Mack is back...

 

 

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Jackson is an elite runner, he's so quick in his cuts but tonight he appeared to be less mobile.    Instead of running away from pass rushers he more often hurried his throwing motion to get rid of the ball often with poor results.  

Baltimore looked pretty bad on both sides of the ball. A 22-10 loss and they were down 6-3 heading into the 4th quarter. The combined totals for Brissett and Tua was 19-36, 304 yds and neither of them are close to Fields yet had multiple explosive plays (2 passes longer than 50, and at least 3 more longer than 20).

If the Bears can contain Andrews, I am not too worried about Bateman, Brown, or Duvernay and Jackson is their run game. Freeman was 10-35 yds and 3 catches for 23 yds as their leading back. 

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Here are the rookie QBs thru Week 9. Some of the advanced stats have shown that Fields has been the best rookie by a long shot the last few weeks. If he keeps it up, he will really close the gap on some of these stats (not that it matters).

Jones has clearly been the front runner from the get-go, he has been very consistent which was sort of expected based on his college tape. I think he is already near his ceiling where all the other guys have much higher ceilings than they have shown. Even with that terrible Cleveland game, Fields is climbing out of the QBR/Rating/DVOA blackhole of death.

1. Jones 204-300, 68.0%, 2135 yds, 7.1 AVG, 10 TD, 7 INT, 49.0 QBR, 89.8 Rating, 19-59 rushing (10 overall TDs), DVOA -6.9%
2. Lawrence 176-296, 59.5%, 1821 yds, 6.2 AVG, 8 TD, 9 INT, 36.0 QBR, 73.6 Rating, 32-136, 2 TD rushing (11 overall TDs), DVOA -15.9%
3. Mills 140-209, 67.0%, 1357 yds, 6.5 AVG, 7 TD, 8 INT, 30.1 QBR, 80.2 Rating, 7-8 rushing (7 overall TDs), DVOA -21.0%
4. Fields 111-170, 65.3%, 1198 yds, 7.0 AVG, 4 TD, 8 INT, 27.3 QBR, 69.4 Rating, 52-288, 2 TD rushing (6 overall TDs), DVOA -42.4%
5. Wilson 104-181, 57.5%, 1168 yds, 6.5 AVG, 4 TD, 9 INT, 27.9 QBR, 63.5 Rating, 8-22 rushing (4 overall TDs), DVOA -35.6%
6. Lance 25-48, 52.1%, 354 yds, 7.4 AVG, 3 TD, 1 INT, 39.6 QBR, 88.4 Rating, 27-133, 1 TD rushing (4 overall TDs), DVOA 14.6%

For Fields, I would like to see him average 240 yds for the remainder of the season, which would put him over 3K. The biggest improvement I would like to see is passing TDs. I am hoping he can get 1.5 per game for the last 8, which would give him 16 TDs, and if he can cut the INTs to 0.5 per game and end with 12, that would be a solid rookie season without playing the entire thing as the starter including the CLE debacle (3000+ yds, 65%, 7.0A, 16+ TD, 12 INT, 500+ yds rushing, 5+ TD).

If Fields averages 254 yds per game the rest of the way, he would surpass Trubisky's best year (2018) in yardage (6th best in franchise history). To get into the Bears top 10 all-time, he would only need 241 yds per game to pass Harbaugh. He would need 2.5 TDs a game to tie Trubisky (24 in 2018). 

The eye test tells me Fields is legit and the coaching, play calling and lack of playmakers is what is holding him back. The schedule is much lighter on the back half of the season with only one elite defense in Arizona (ARZ 2nd, MIN 8th x2, NYG 15th, GB 16th, SEA 23rd, BAL 26th, DET 29th) so he should continue to improve, which should be scary for opposing teams. 
 

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8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Jackson is an elite runner, he's so quick in his cuts but tonight he appeared to be less mobile.    Instead of running away from pass rushers he more often hurried his throwing motion to get rid of the ball often with poor results.  

The field conditions were horrendous so that might have had an impact. I don't like the fact that we face Jackson after he had an awful game -> he is a guy that usually bounces back very strong.  

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22 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The field conditions were horrendous so that might have had an impact. I don't like the fact that we face Jackson after he had an awful game -> he is a guy that usually bounces back very strong.  

Depending on how you look at it, he hasn't been the same since his monster game against Indy 5 weeks ago. The last 4 weeks he has thrown for 167, 257, 266, and 238. He ran for 51, 88, 120, and 39 in the last 4. 

He runs so much (more than their top 2 RBs combined), that is almost makes it easier because on any fake the odds of him getting the ball are higher than him doing anything else. 

He has 5 INTs in the last 4 games, so that's promising for a Bears defense that went cold on turnovers.

If we can get Mack back, a healthy Hicks, and figure out how to help Vildor, the defense should be better than it has in a few weeks. The offense still has the arrow pointed upwards and now gets an extra week to prep specifically for the Ravens. They may still lose but it is going to be a close on either way.  One benefit, the Bears are playing at home, which is much easier for a young QB.

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