Fields Named Starter for Season

[adam]

6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I was assured they were the best drafting team in the NFL.  

They nailed 3 drafts in a row (2010-Okung, Thomas, Tate, Chancellor; 2011-Carpenter, Wright, Sherman, Maxwell, Smith; 2012-Irvin, Wagner, Wilson, Sweezy).

That is 13 starter-caliber players in 3 years. That's how you get really good, really fast. However, of those 13, how many are left with the team.....2, Wilson and Wagner. 

In the last 9 years, they have drafted only 8 of those types of players (Lewis, Metcalf, Carson, Ifedi, Reed, Clark, Lockett, and Britt). Only Lewis, Metcalf, Carson, and Lockett are still with the team. So they have 5 original draftees as major contributors from their last 12 drafts.

From what I have seen over the years, you need at least 2 main contributors a year from the draft to remain at least competitive. Those teams stay around 7-9 to 9-7. The teams that have a franchise QB, add 2-3 wins. So you can look at teams like KC and see that even with Mahomes, they are in decline. Every year they lose someone like Fisher or Peters, who were stud draftees and replace them with very average players. Since drafting Mahomes, they only have two players that would fit that criteria, Hardman and Edwards-Helaire and even now, Hardman is borderline at best. 

 

 

[adam]

After watching some of the other rookie QBs, I am so glad we have Justin Fields.

Zach Wilson (leads NFL in INTs) playing against a terrible Atlanta team today is 5-13 for 42 yards and an INT at the half. CPat, who has 1 incompletion for the Falcons has a higher passer rating than Wilson.  This is Game 5 for Wilson with the entire preseason as QB1. The Jets traded Darnold for this.

Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence (2nd in INTs) are game managers.

Trey Lance looks more like Taysom Hill with almost an even split of carries and completions. It will curious to see how he looks as the starter this week.

It would be crazy but the last two QBs drafted may end up being the best of the crop. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 10/8/2021 at 3:59 PM, adam said:

It looks like Russell Wilson will be out 6-8 weeks (my fantasy season is over), that would be a perfect location for someone like Dalton. 

And now the Giants are without Daniel Jones for a bit with a concussion.  Their backup?  Mike Glennon.  ??

Maybe they’ll be in the market for Dalton or Foles?  Honestly at this point I’d prefer the Bears keep Dalton and see if someone would trade for Foles.  Of the two he’s (Dalton) more mobile and less made of balsawood.  

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And now the Giants are without Daniel Jones for a bit with a concussion.  Their backup?  Mike Glennon.  ??

Maybe they’ll be in the market for Dalton or Foles?  Honestly at this point I’d prefer the Bears keep Dalton and see if someone would trade for Foles.  Of the two he’s (Dalton) more mobile and less made of balsawood.  

I can't see the Giants doing anything for a concussion issue unless or until it becomes a serious 4-6 week ordeal.  Nor are they a playoff caliber team that really wants to stay in the hunt thinking they can get healthy and make a big run in the post season.   Any team short of that is probably ok with a higher draft pick. 

In any case I say we keep Dalton.  He's got this offense down better than Foles and Fields needs that help on the sidelines.   Damien Williams was asked about Fields going out and he said it without hesitation:  No problem we know we got 14 coming in.  Dalton got a first down for the team and then Fields went back out there.  

[adam]

21 hours ago, adam said:

From what I have seen over the years, you need at least 2 main contributors a year from the draft to remain at least competitive. Those teams stay around 7-9 to 9-7. The teams that have a franchise QB, add 2-3 wins. So you can look at teams like KC and see that even with Mahomes, they are in decline. Every year they lose someone like Fisher or Peters, who were stud draftees and replace them with very average players. Since drafting Mahomes, they only have two players that would fit that criteria, Hardman and Edwards-Helaire and even now, Hardman is borderline at best. 

Watching the SNF game, it seems like this may be true now. Outside of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill, and to an extent Edwards-Helaire, KC has very few other quality players. This is with Mahomes on the 5th year of his rookie contract. Next year Mahomes contract goes up $28M to $36M, Chris Jones will be $29M, Frank Clark $26M, Hill will be $21M, and Joe Thuney $18M.  That is $130M for 5 players! Also, there is not much wiggle room in any of those contracts (a ton of dead cap already). This is their last year in this window.

[adam]

Rookie QB Watch:

Zach Wilson is now 1-4 and leads the NFL with 9 INTs. 

Mac Jones got his 2nd win against another rookie QB, beating Davis Mills, who actually outplayed Jones. 

Trey Lance got his first start and lost. He had more rushes than passes, 0 TD, 1 INT

Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 and is 2nd in the NFL with 8 INTs.

 

The other 4 QBs are a combined 3-13 with 2 of those wins against other rookie QBs.

Fields is now 2-1 as a starter. His stats haven't quite been there, but in both games the Bears were just protecting the lead. 

[jason]

I'm excited for the Fields era, but I still think Dalton should be starting. If the plan wasn't for Dalton to start while Fields develops, then Dalton should have never been picked up in FA. Foles was enough. Dalton's acquisition reeks of the Glennon move, which is yet another reason I can't stand Pace. The dude makes moves that just waste money, and potentially cause conflict. Having Foles is one thing. He's easy to dismiss for a first round rookie. Dalton is a different case. It just looks like a lack of long-term planning.

[adam]

1 hour ago, jason said:

I'm excited for the Fields era, but I still think Dalton should be starting. If the plan wasn't for Dalton to start while Fields develops, then Dalton should have never been picked up in FA. Foles was enough. Dalton's acquisition reeks of the Glennon move, which is yet another reason I can't stand Pace. The dude makes moves that just waste money, and potentially cause conflict. Having Foles is one thing. He's easy to dismiss for a first round rookie. Dalton is a different case. It just looks like a lack of long-term planning.

The worst part of the Glennon deal was Glennon. The idea was ok, but there were other vets available to be a bridge QB, Glennon was not one of them.

For the Dalton deal, with Pick 21, there was no way the Bears thought they were getting a 1st Round QB with all of them expected to go in the top 10-12 picks. So Dalton was essentially replacing Trubisky and then Fields fell into their laps. If the draft happens first, I think there are several moves done differently, and Dalton is never signed. 

Right now, Fields needs the game experience. Outside of Lance, all the other rookie QBs got an entire offseason and QB1 reps. That was the mistake. Fields should've been splitting the reps with Dalton. That is why ARob is struggling and Graham has 1 reception on the year. There is no chemistry and timing built with those guys yet. 

To me, this is where we should start seeing Fields improve. 3 full games under his belt with game prep and QB1 reps. GBs defense is better than Detroit's but worse than Las Vegas. 

Right now Quinn looks much better for the contract. The biggest mistake in the last few years is signing Jackson for that amount and length. 

 

[madlithuanian]

3 hours ago, jason said:

I'm excited for the Fields era, but I still think Dalton should be starting. If the plan wasn't for Dalton to start while Fields develops, then Dalton should have never been picked up in FA. Foles was enough. Dalton's acquisition reeks of the Glennon move, which is yet another reason I can't stand Pace. The dude makes moves that just waste money, and potentially cause conflict. Having Foles is one thing. He's easy to dismiss for a first round rookie. Dalton is a different case. It just looks like a lack of long-term planning.

I don't think the Bears remotely thought they'd get Fields.  Dalton was just going to be the starter.  Maybe pull the trigger on a late round QB and wait and see.  Fields changed everything.

[Connorbear]

1 hour ago, madlithuanian said:

I don't think the Bears remotely thought they'd get Fields.  Dalton was just going to be the starter.  Maybe pull the trigger on a late round QB and wait and see.  Fields changed everything.

This. 

Peace

[Alaskan Grizzly]

20 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

I don't think the Bears remotely thought they'd get Fields.  Dalton was just going to be the starter.  Maybe pull the trigger on a late round QB and wait and see.  Fields changed everything.

And if we recall, there was an awful lot of discussion about Russell Wilson possibly coming to Chicago. When (allegedly) Carroll submarined the plan the team went to plan ‘B’.  I have to believe that Lazor had some input on Dalton being that choice.  

[adam]

22 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And if we recall, there was an awful lot of discussion about Russell Wilson possibly coming to Chicago. When (allegedly) Carroll submarined the plan the team went to plan ‘B’.  I have to believe that Lazor had some input on Dalton being that choice.  

Yeah, that too. I think Dalton was Plan "B" after RW fell thru.

[AZ54]

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/10/13/bears-packers-justin-fields-aaron-rodgers-week-6-matchup/

“My job is to win,” Fields told reporters Wednesday. “My job isn’t to be better than any quarterback. As long as we win, I’m doing my job the right way.”

He's willing to just play his role.  This kind of leadership from a top draft pick who was a big time collegiate star will permeate the entire roster.  

[adam]

Fields has now thrown 3 INTs, the first one was when the LB dropped into coverage. His next one is was a tipped ball and the last one was on the blown call free play deep ball. So he really only has one bad Interception on the year. Compare that to Trubisky's 7 INTs as a rookie. He had 5 or 6 others that were dropped.

To me Fields is improving every game. The receivers need to get open and the team needs to cut down on the drive killing penalties. I feel like he is on the cusp of a breakout game. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Fields has now thrown 3 INTs, the first one was when the LB dropped into coverage. His next one is was a tipped ball and the last one was on the blown call free play deep ball. So he really only has one bad Interception on the year. Compare that to Trubisky's 7 INTs as a rookie. He had 5 or 6 others that were dropped.

To me Fields is improving every game. The receivers need to get open and the team needs to cut down on the drive killing penalties. I feel like he is on the cusp of a breakout game. 

Ummm-Mitch threw 7 INT's in 12 games. That is actually pretty damn good for a rookie.  His issue was more just 7 TD's in the same amount of games - albeit he was not really being asked to pass a ton either.  I guess my point is - small sample size and not stat good but if you are implying Fields is way better than Mitch at throwing picks I'd tell you that wasn't really a huge issue in Mitch's game. If Mitch could just throw a better deep ball he would be in Chicago. Yes he had his other warts, but they would have been overcame with a better deep ball.  

[adam]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Ummm-Mitch threw 7 INT's in 12 games. That is actually pretty damn good for a rookie.  His issue was more just 7 TD's in the same amount of games - albeit he was not really being asked to pass a ton either.  I guess my point is - small sample size and not stat good but if you are implying Fields is way better than Mitch at throwing picks I'd tell you that wasn't really a huge issue in Mitch's game. If Mitch could just throw a better deep ball he would be in Chicago. Yes he had his other warts, but they would have been overcame with a better deep ball.  

Oh I know, he barely threw the ball that year. So 7 INTs was a lot compared to the number of attempts, and if you remember, he had a ton of near INTs. I was just pointing out that Fields is a lot further along than Mitch was, especially in that department.

Another comp is Lamar Jackson. He started 7 games as a rookie. His highest passing total for one game was 204 yards. He ranged from 125 yards passing to 204 in those 7 games. That was with a comp% in the mid 50's. He threw 5 TDs and 3 INTs, and also had a ton of rushing yards. In 6 of those 7 games he had more rushes than completions.

Josh Allen also had an interesting rookie year. He only had 1 game over 225 yards (245) in 11 starts. He had 10 TD and 12 INTs. Go look back at Allen against GB in Week 4 2018. A 22-0 loss. Allen had 151 yards passing and 2 INTs, was sacked 7 times and had a 48% completion percentage. In his first 6 starts, he topped 200 yards once.

Both Jackson and Allen are now MVP candidates. 

So I think Fields is on track. This is going to be a growth year with some ups and downs but he is trending in the right direction. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

So I think Fields is on track. This is going to be a growth year with some ups and downs but he is trending in the right direction. 

That's the hard pill to swallow. We want the Bears to compete now but they are in the process of rebuilding too.  Starting a rookie QB, they retooled the oline with two new OTs (injury delayed), cut their star CB to go with youth.  Next offseason will be another wave of losses I assume with a few more vets like ARobinson, Graham, Hicks, Trevathan, and Gibson.   Next season will be similar but hopefully Fields is improved. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

18 hours ago, adam said:

Oh I know, he barely threw the ball that year. So 7 INTs was a lot compared to the number of attempts, and if you remember, he had a ton of near INTs. I was just pointing out that Fields is a lot further along than Mitch was, especially in that department.

Another comp is Lamar Jackson. He started 7 games as a rookie. His highest passing total for one game was 204 yards. He ranged from 125 yards passing to 204 in those 7 games. That was with a comp% in the mid 50's. He threw 5 TDs and 3 INTs, and also had a ton of rushing yards. In 6 of those 7 games he had more rushes than completions.

Josh Allen also had an interesting rookie year. He only had 1 game over 225 yards (245) in 11 starts. He had 10 TD and 12 INTs. Go look back at Allen against GB in Week 4 2018. A 22-0 loss. Allen had 151 yards passing and 2 INTs, was sacked 7 times and had a 48% completion percentage. In his first 6 starts, he topped 200 yards once.

Both Jackson and Allen are now MVP candidates. 

So I think Fields is on track. This is going to be a growth year with some ups and downs but he is trending in the right direction. 

So that is just not true. Fields int ratio is like 3% vs. Mitch's was 2.1% or so as a rookie.  I could care less - none of that matters in the grand scheme. To me it will be how is Fields playing in the 2nd half of the year.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

By the way - anyone frustrated with Fields...just watch the Jags where Lawrence has his own struggles he is going through. I'd say he is further ahead than Fields at this point, partially because he has a few more starts and partly because they are a worse team and they are opening the playbook up much faster.  The one QB who has blown me away is Mac Jones.  He has already shown me he is going to be a good QB. 

What I dont' know with Mac is whether he will be a great QB or not.  But the way he throws guys open and reads defenses is super advance. We always knew he had that skillset the question was how the physical skills played into the equation.  At this point, I have little doubt that Mac will be a solid QB -> from here it is will those traits be special enough to overcome some of those physical shortcomings. The inverse to that is -> I have seen Fields touch/ball placement - it can be special and I know his athleticism is incredible. Now can he overcome fact that he needs to get better at read/reacting to speed of NFL defenses (both in terms of not taking sacks, getting more quick hits out, etc) so that he can survive and I think he's already shown that and he's clearly high intellect...but his challenge will cause him to take a bit more time to come through because the speed of the NFL game is so much different vs. college.

Bottom line -> I'm still buying very high on Fields and have really not seen anything right now that has me concerned, including just how he has responded to tough moments and adversity. Right now, while I know where his areas of growth need to come from, I haven't seen any fatal flaws to me that show he can't get to where he is good enough in those categories...where his pure athleticm and arm talent can more than overcompensate from being okay at some other categories.  

[adam]

20 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

By the way - anyone frustrated with Fields...just watch the Jags where Lawrence has his own struggles he is going through. I'd say he is further ahead than Fields at this point, partially because he has a few more starts and partly because they are a worse team and they are opening the playbook up much faster.  The one QB who has blown me away is Mac Jones.  He has already shown me he is going to be a good QB. 

What I dont' know with Mac is whether he will be a great QB or not.  But the way he throws guys open and reads defenses is super advance. We always knew he had that skillset the question was how the physical skills played into the equation.  At this point, I have little doubt that Mac will be a solid QB -> from here it is will those traits be special enough to overcome some of those physical shortcomings. The inverse to that is -> I have seen Fields touch/ball placement - it can be special and I know his athleticism is incredible. Now can he overcome fact that he needs to get better at read/reacting to speed of NFL defenses (both in terms of not taking sacks, getting more quick hits out, etc) so that he can survive and I think he's already shown that and he's clearly high intellect...but his challenge will cause him to take a bit more time to come through because the speed of the NFL game is so much different vs. college.

Bottom line -> I'm still buying very high on Fields and have really not seen anything right now that has me concerned, including just how he has responded to tough moments and adversity. Right now, while I know where his areas of growth need to come from, I haven't seen any fatal flaws to me that show he can't get to where he is good enough in those categories...where his pure athleticm and arm talent can more than overcompensate from being okay at some other categories.  

What is crazy is Jones has 3x the number of completions than Fields already. Jones lowest attempts was 21 last week, before that he never had fewer than 30 attempts. Fields on the other hand had his high of 27 attempts last week and that was the first time he had over 21 attempts. The contrast is wild. NE is handling Jones perfectly, giving him easy completions and getting the ball of out his hands quickly. He has only been sacked 13 times compared to 18 for Fields in half as many attempts.

The good thing is Fields is improving, his DVOA has risen up from that historic low now to -51.5%. Still a long way to go to a respectful level, but now he is within range of the other rookies (Wilson -50.8%, Mills -34.3%, Lawrence -22.4%, Jones -12.3%). 

There is so many variables to QB play, Jets moved on from Darnold only to see Wilson play worse. Then the Panthers moved on from Bridgewater only to see Darnold play worse. LOL. Same for Philly. They went with Hurts over Wentz, and Wentz has been better. Cleveland is probably going to find out that Keenum is better than Mayfield too here really quick. 

[AZ54]

12 hours ago, adam said:

What is crazy is Jones has 3x the number of completions than Fields already. Jones lowest attempts was 21 last week, before that he never had fewer than 30 attempts. Fields on the other hand had his high of 27 attempts last week and that was the first time he had over 21 attempts. The contrast is wild. NE is handling Jones perfectly, giving him easy completions and getting the ball of out his hands quickly. He has only been sacked 13 times compared to 18 for Fields in half as many attempts.

The good thing is Fields is improving, his DVOA has risen up from that historic low now to -51.5%. Still a long way to go to a respectful level, but now he is within range of the other rookies (Wilson -50.8%, Mills -34.3%, Lawrence -22.4%, Jones -12.3%). 

There is so many variables to QB play, Jets moved on from Darnold only to see Wilson play worse. Then the Panthers moved on from Bridgewater only to see Darnold play worse. LOL. Same for Philly. They went with Hurts over Wentz, and Wentz has been better. Cleveland is probably going to find out that Keenum is better than Mayfield too here really quick. 

Having watched a few Bengals game now, I'm waiting for when the Bengals fans realize they drafted Andy Dalton 2.0 in Joe Burrow.  Yes I get all the hype on Burrow but I never cared about the media.  All I have to do is put on my "Mitch glasses" where every minor infraction is highlighted and the gaps in his passing skills are obvious.     Burrow may yet overcome his lack of arm strength and some of the poor throws but today, I'd take Fields in a heartbeat over him.     Said the same about JimmyG a few years back when everyone was in love with him and where is he now?

None of that makes me a QB savant, I really just ignore the NFL hype train, ignore stats somewhat, and just focus on the question:  Would I be happy with that pass if he were my QB?   On the contrary it does have me convinced that a perfect QB is a really rare thing (duh) and if we're  ever going to see it happen in a Bears uniform i understand it takes time to develop.  Fields is not picking up the offense as quickly as I'd like but he's also done some things we haven't seen in some time.  His deep passing skills are the best I've ever seen in a Bears QB.   Keep in mind my fan experience only goes back to the Vince Evans era. 

I can be patient (as if any Bears fan has a choice) and still believe Field is worth the risk of the draft investment and he's worth investing time to develop.   If Field's doesn't fully develop into his full potential then we definitely need to put a coach and team around him to win football games.  In other words I think Fields floor will be good enough to win games with while his ceiling is high enough that he wins games.  

[adam]

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Having watched a few Bengals game now, I'm waiting for when the Bengals fans realize they drafted Andy Dalton 2.0 in Joe Burrow.  Yes I get all the hype on Burrow but I never cared about the media.  All I have to do is put on my "Mitch glasses" where every minor infraction is highlighted and the gaps in his passing skills are obvious.     Burrow may yet overcome his lack of arm strength and some of the poor throws but today, I'd take Fields in a heartbeat over him.     Said the same about JimmyG a few years back when everyone was in love with him and where is he now?

None of that makes me a QB savant, I really just ignore the NFL hype train, ignore stats somewhat, and just focus on the question:  Would I be happy with that pass if he were my QB?   On the contrary it does have me convinced that a perfect QB is a really rare thing (duh) and if we're  ever going to see it happen in a Bears uniform i understand it takes time to develop.  Fields is not picking up the offense as quickly as I'd like but he's also done some things we haven't seen in some time.  His deep passing skills are the best I've ever seen in a Bears QB.   Keep in mind my fan experience only goes back to the Vince Evans era. 

I can be patient (as if any Bears fan has a choice) and still believe Field is worth the risk of the draft investment and he's worth investing time to develop.   If Field's doesn't fully develop into his full potential then we definitely need to put a coach and team around him to win football games.  In other words I think Fields floor will be good enough to win games with while his ceiling is high enough that he wins games.  

I agree on Burrow. I was shocked at how weak his arm was. To throw down the field, he literally has to throw a moon shot. He is going to settle into the game manager role and you are correct, he is very similar to Dalton.

[adam]

Since the Cleveland debacle, Fields has had a QBR of 76.8 (DET), 29.0 (vs LVR), and 40.5 (vs GB). That also counts the ridiculous INT on the no delay game call.

Compared to the other rookies, Jones has been the most consistent with the highest floor (which was somewhat expected). Lawrence had the best game of his career in Week 4 QBR-wise, but in that game, he was just 17-24 for 204 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT and had a rushing TD.

 

Week 4-6:
Lawrence 82.5, 28.8, 52.7, one great game, one bad game, one average game.

Wilson 40.8, 17.3, Bye, one average game, one terrible game

Jones 46.9, 65.4, 46.4, two average games, one good game

I feel like Jones is playing exactly how he was projected. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I feel like Jones is playing exactly how he was projected. 

With Belichick as the coach, not all that surprising. I hate to give Josh Daniels credit too but he does pretty good as an OC.  Much better than Nagy.  And NO WAY NO HOW would I ever want Daniels as HC in Chicago. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

With Belichick as the coach, not all that surprising. I hate to give Josh Daniels credit too but he does pretty good as an OC.  Much better than Nagy.  And NO WAY NO HOW would I ever want Daniels as HC in Chicago. 

Oh yeah, McDaniels is really good as a QB Coach or even an OC, but that's his cap, and that's ok. If Nagy stays, we really need a real OC and not one just by name in Lazor.