Draft Slot Tracker (thru Week 15)

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I know, me 2! It opens up so many options for the Bears. Once you start dropping, you are then settling for what is left. 

I almost feel like #2 is the most valuable pick in the draft because HOU has to draft a QB at #1. That leaves every other player or a trade available to you. No other pick really has that flexibility. Once you get to #3, there is a chance 2 QBs are off the board AND there is even a chance that both Carter and Anderson are off the board, or one or the other. So at #3, you are already settling.

It feels like the Bears have wasted/lost so many early picks by trading up or for a player.  For once we can be in position to gain extra picks if the cards are played right.  I want #2 and it is also for sale. If we trade down to 5 and another team wants to move up, that pick is for sale also.  We are not 1 player away and I am all for building a bank. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It feels like the Bears have wasted/lost so many early picks by trading up or for a player.  For once we can be in position to gain extra picks if the cards are played right.  I want #2 and it is also for sale. If we trade down to 5 and another team wants to move up, that pick is for sale also.  We are not 1 player away and I am all for building a bank. 

It depends. I agree we arent one player away, and if youre talking about the 9th pick or something, then what youre saying makes sense.

But at some point you need a blue chip game changing QB and you need a blue chip game changer on defense. And the opportunity to get an Aaron Donald etc is rare, and worth doing if you already have your QB, then you build around them.

[adam]

HOU just beat TEN, and the Bears are now 1/2 game out of the #1 pick. HOU plays JAX and IND for their last two games. 

If HOU can win one more, they would be 3-13-1 and if the Bears lose out, they would be 3-14. 

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

HOU just beat TEN, and the Bears are now 1/2 game out of the #1 pick. HOU plays JAX and IND for their last two games. 

If HOU can win one more, they would be 3-13-1 and if the Bears lose out, they would be 3-14. 

ah yes! Thank you! Once again, Lovie Smith helping the Bears increase the value of their draft pick LOL

[ASHKUM BEAR]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

HOU just beat TEN, and the Bears are now 1/2 game out of the #1 pick. HOU plays JAX and IND for their last two games. 

If HOU can win one more, they would be 3-13-1 and if the Bears lose out, they would be 3-14. 

I hope this is the last time in my life I want the Bears to tank.  That first overall pick would be sweet. 

[AZ54]

From a trade back standpoint I'm not sure the 1st overall helps.  There is no player worth trading up that high to get beyond potentially a QB.  The QBs really are more about supply and demand versus their draft grade.  The whole world knows we are not selecting a QB.  We need Houston in front of us as the QB wildcard so some team gets nervous about losing out on the 2nd best QB because after that the drop off gets pretty big.  That could all change in the run up to the draft if Stroud or Young really start to wow scouts.  

The only other option might be if someone in the top 5, maybe top 7, really coveted one of the 2 defensive stars.  Beyond that the price to move up gets too high for most teams, and the move down gets too far for my preference.   

[Stinger226]

There is always a team that makes a QB their savior, the past gives you all kind of examples. Maybe most GMs think Young is the only true star so being first gives everyone the chance to get who they want. Definitely a more valuable pick. 

If Houston wins that gives us potentially 5 teams that could draft a QB in the top 8. (for now)

 Indy will have a top 5 pick. 

 I would love to see them go after THE QB in a trade.  first and second round picks, DeForest Buckner, and Alex Pierce. 2023 first round pick. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

From a trade back standpoint I'm not sure the 1st overall helps.  There is no player worth trading up that high to get beyond potentially a QB.  The QBs really are more about supply and demand versus their draft grade.  The whole world knows we are not selecting a QB.  We need Houston in front of us as the QB wildcard so some team gets nervous about losing out on the 2nd best QB because after that the drop off gets pretty big.  That could all change in the run up to the draft if Stroud or Young really start to wow scouts.  

The only other option might be if someone in the top 5, maybe top 7, really coveted one of the 2 defensive stars.  Beyond that the price to move up gets too high for most teams, and the move down gets too far for my preference.   

The thing is being #1 and knowing Houston goes qb at 2 means anyone who wants there choice at qb needs to jump Houston. 
 

This isn’t as of now a super deep qb draft so getting top pick is huge. Heck - Houston may give up a high pick just to move up and ensure they get their qb. 

[AZ54]

16 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The thing is being #1 and knowing Houston goes qb at 2 means anyone who wants there choice at qb needs to jump Houston. 
 

This isn’t as of now a super deep qb draft so getting top pick is huge. Heck - Houston may give up a high pick just to move up and ensure they get their qb. 

True. I guess I don’t view any of these QBs that highly but you are right.  It just takes one team.  

[adam]

Every spot from 4 to 1 is "worth" 400 pts or the equivalent to pick #50 (mid-2nd rounder). So if the Bears somehow move up from 2 to 1, which is actually very possible considering HOU's final two opponents, they would basically give themselves an extra 2nd rounder in any trade scenario.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Every spot from 4 to 1 is "worth" 400 pts or the equivalent to pick #50 (mid-2nd rounder). So if the Bears somehow move up from 2 to 1, which is actually very possible considering HOU's final two opponents, they would basically give themselves an extra 2nd rounder in any trade scenario.

well only an extra second rounder in value above what they were already getting at #2.

If someone wants to go from, say 4 to 1, thats gonna cost 1200 points.

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I hope this is the last time in my life I want the Bears to tank.  That first overall pick would be sweet. 

I fully agree. If we do this right, we wont ever have to again.

[adam]

The Bears have only picked 1st overall twice, once in 1941 and again in 1947. Since that point they have actually only picked 2nd twice, once in 1951 and Trubisky. So since 1941, the Bears have picked 1st or 2nd only 4 times. 

It seems like IND, ATL, CAR, now LVR will all be in on a QB. SEA, who is currently drafting 3rd (DEN's pick) has to at least consider one (and they have two 1st rounders).

A wild scenario would be HOU winning, Bears getting the #1 overall pick to trade it to SEA for #3 and #13 +Metcalf. The Bears then can take Carter or Anderson at #3 and another blue chipper at #13 and now have Metcalf as a WR1. Now another option would be to take Lockett off their hands, but more as a salary dump and take an extra pick with the deal.

Thoughts on SEA?

IND makes a lot of sense but any team moving up to #1 is going to pay a king's ransom to get there. Especially considering HOU would be #2 and definitely taking one with 2 1st rounders. 

[adam]

btw, the with the Bears luck, they win their last two and pick 7th 🤣

If CAR, with Foreman and Hubbard can do that to DET, Monty + Herbert + Fields might have a day.

[adam]

Crazy scenario. Indy rests any remaining starters in Week 18 against HOU, so HOU has a better shot at winning giving CHI the first pick. They then trade with CHI to leapfrog HOU for a QB. If IND loses out, they would draft no worse than 5th. 

 

[Stinger226]

I don't think they rest anyone in both games, the coach wants to keep his job, Houston can beat Indy with Saturday as their coach, he screws up a lot.

[Mongo3451]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

Crazy scenario. Indy rests any remaining starters in Week 18 against HOU, so HOU has a better shot at winning giving CHI the first pick. They then trade with CHI to leapfrog HOU for a QB. If IND loses out, they would draft no worse than 5th. 

 

Go Lovie!  Remember all of the meaningless games he win for us at the end of the season.  Used to drive Jason and others nuts.  Oh the good old days...😜

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Go Lovie!  Remember all of the meaningless games he win for us at the end of the season.  Used to drive Jason and others nuts.  Oh the good old days...😜

I think one thing is for sure, Lovie is not going to try to lose. Winning is all that matters to him. 

[Stinger226]

If  you watch highlights of Jalen Carter, he is a beast but to be honest, his stats are very mediocre.  I like drafting players that were highly productive, can anyone explain the generational tag placed on  Carter? 

My  favorite tape to watch is Tuli Tuipulotu, he has 11.5 sacks this year. 21 tfl, 44 Ts, and 2 FFs.

I don't get it.

[AZ54]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If  you watch highlights of Jalen Carter, he is a beast but to be honest, his stats are very mediocre.  I like drafting players that were highly productive, can anyone explain the generational tag placed on  Carter? 

My  favorite tape to watch is Tuli Tuipulotu, he has 11.5 sacks this year. 21 tfl, 44 Ts, and 2 FFs.

I don't get it.

From some of the analyst videos he has poor technique with his hands and arms.  He allows himself to get into close contact with Oline and they just latch on.   If you can catch a game film of his you'll see it on numerous plays where he gets neutralized at the LOS.  It's as if he thinks he can just rely on his quickness and power. 

That won't work at the NFL level.  There is a bit of a gamble here but his traits are elite and if you can coach him into better technique it's a big win.  That along with using him to best take advantage of his traits.  

It is also a function of how Georgia uses him in different roles: 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jalen-carter-7f2cd5a9-0f55-4896-92d3-655855e0ea0f/

"Georgia plays him in multiple spots: 1-tech, 2i, 3-tech, and 5-tech."

Cons: Despite playing multiple alignments, Jalen Carter is best as a single-gap penetrator. Inconsistency against double teams raises concerns about reducing his alignment too far inside. His contact balance needs improvement. He is susceptible to being knocked off his rush path. Although he has a solid repertoire of hand counters, Carter does not activate his hands enough. He attempts to deconstruct blocks with quickness and drives his shoulder between gaps. Hand/punch placement must improve to not allow easy access to his chest. Carter plays with inconsistent pad level and is seen popping up out of his stance, surrendering leverage quickly. He’s played fewer than 140 snaps against the run, raising concerns about holding up in a full-time role. `

[Stinger226]

I would prefer to take the risk on Anderson or Murphy in taking a player that high instead of Carter. 

Im not sure who on here introduced me to Tankathon,( I think if was AZ) but they have a lot of good content. 

 My preference in this draft is to draft a NT like Siaki Ika / 6'4 358 two gap eater and a DT like Tuli Tulptuloti / 44 ts and 12.5 sacks  to man our interior. 

[AZ54]

Maybe it was me, I was just using that site to track draft position but they have a simple interface for looking at prospects.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I would prefer to take the risk on Anderson or Murphy in taking a player that high instead of Carter. 

Im not sure who on here introduced me to Tankathon,( I think if was AZ) but they have a lot of good content. 

 My preference in this draft is to draft a NT like Siaki Ika / 6'4 358 two gap eater and a DT like Tuli Tulptuloti / 44 ts and 12.5 sacks  to man our interior. 

Ika or Tuipulotu will both be gone before the Bears draft in the 2nd unless they trade back and get an earlier 2nd rounder.

[adam]

Wow Russell Wilson is terrible.  He ends the half 6-13, 90 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks, QB Rating of 29.8 and Denver has 6 points. Is he tanking for Seattle? Like one last gift out the door? He can't be this bad. I can't see them winning another game this year.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Ika or Tuipulotu will both be gone before the Bears draft in the 2nd unless they trade back and get an earlier 2nd rounder.

For sure they wont be there at pick 2 but if we trade back we might have a shot. To early to take in the top 10 . Seen Tuli ranked anywhere from 39 to 103 and Ika between 38 and 56. I just like better than taking Carter at 2 for upside.