Final 7 games

[adam]

The Bears have 7 games left, 3 against suspected playoff teams (DETx2 and CLE), but none of those teams are the elite (SF, PHI, KC, BAL). 

@ DET - this is probably a loss, Fields first game back, but it is after a mini-bye and DET is traveling back from a SUN game in LA. 
@ MIN - the Bears should've won the first game, now without Cousins, I think the Bears get back to 1-1 against them here.
BYE
vs DET - this would be the 2nd game after and extra break, if there ever was a game they could win, it is this one. I am going upset here. 
@ CLE -  I am going with loss here, but the Browns offense doesn't scare me.
vs ARZ - regardless of QB, this team is as bad as the Panthers.
vs ATL - this team not that good, no real QB either. 
@ GB - I have them at best 4-2 heading into this game (7-9 overall). I think we see the Bears finally break through in Week 18, close out the year at 8-9 while still holding the #1 pick thanks to CAR. 

 

I feel DET is a little overrated. They beat GB, ATL, CAR, TB, and LVR, and lost to SEA and BAL. There signature win is beating KC opening night, but outside of that win, they haven't beat a team with a winning record. 

[Stinger226]

That sounds realistic, next week will give us lots of answers as far as the QB and how good the defense is. If we go 8-9 , Flus won't be getting fired and chances are we won't be drafting a QB early. Seems 7-10 more realistic unless our defense is real.  It's interesting as we try to join modern football, what wins for us is running the ball and stopping the run.

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

It's interesting as we try to join modern football, what wins for us is running the ball and stopping the run.

only against substandard teams though. That formula won't bet the good teams in the modern age.

If you execute the Tony Dungy plan perfectly in 2024, you end up flirting with a wild card playoff loss - that's the ceiling.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I feel DET is a little overrated.

We had better be ready for Jahmyer Gibbs.  He’s running all over the Chargers’ (currently) 6th ranked rush defense.
 

Update:  Just got his second rushing TD of the day.  Detroit had the ball one other time between those TDs and tried two times with Montgomery to run in inside the 5 and were stuffed.  
 

Update #2:  Lions have 175 yard rushing at the half.  This includes one 75 yard TD run by Monty.  

[killakrzydav]

I only see one win and that's against Arizona. I hope we lose them all though.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

only against substandard teams though. That formula won't bet the good teams in the modern age.

If you execute the Tony Dungy plan perfectly in 2024, you end up flirting with a wild card playoff loss - that's the ceiling.

I agree we need a QB that is capable of throwing 300 yds every game but the teams that win SBs usually can run the ball and play D. Its never just one reason.

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree we need a QB that is capable of throwing 300 yds every game but the teams that win SBs usually can run the ball and play D. Its never just one reason.

of course. If a team has no pass rush its going nowhere too - for pretty much the same reason. And you need an OL to stand behind.

Im just saying there must be that top notch QB also. And if you are a GM, and youre putting together a team, QB has to be the #1 thing you need.

Pretty much the most important things to get right are, in order: QB, Edge, OL - the rest you can fill in and find. Those are the holy trinity of the NFL.

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

of course. If a team has no pass rush its going nowhere too - for pretty much the same reason. And you need an OL to stand behind.

Im just saying there must be that top notch QB also. And if you are a GM, and youre putting together a team, QB has to be the #1 thing you need.

Pretty much the most important things to get right are, in order: QB, Edge, OL - the rest you can fill in and find. Those are the holy trinity of the NFL.

When Poles got the job, he mentioned all those positions and also CB. That is why I think he will resign JJ. The defensive backfield is becoming one of our strengths and the  a key question will be what he does with Jackson in this off-season.

[adam]

Watson out for the year, the Bears will get PJ Walker against the Browns. That game just became more winnable.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Watson out for the year, the Bears will get PJ Walker against the Browns. That game just became more winnable.

You wanna talk about a team snake-bitten by QBs, Cleveland I think has Chicago beat. 

[killakrzydav]

I think they still beat us

[adam]

2 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

I think they still beat us

It will be something like 9-6. They are not very good on offense, especially without Watson. Their defense is awesome, but unless they score, it is going to be a low scoring affair.

[adam]

Fields went 16-23, 69.6%, 169 yards, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 FL, 18 rushes for 104 yards. 

Passing numbers still too low for me, but he made up for it with a huge day on the ground. 

For his first game back in a month, I would say he passed the first of 7 tests. He will need to do this but improve on it every game. Next up MIN. 

[BearFan PHX]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Fields went 16-23, 69.6%, 169 yards, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 FL, 18 rushes for 104 yards. 

Passing numbers still too low for me, but he made up for it with a huge day on the ground. 

For his first game back in a month, I would say he passed the first of 7 tests. He will need to do this but improve on it every game. Next up MIN. 

Fields definitely increased his trade value today.

[ChileBear]

43 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Fields definitely increased his trade value today.

But he is incapable of leading a drive at the end of a game to pull out a win. He isn't it.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ChileBear said:

But he is incapable of leading a drive at the end of a game to pull out a win. He isn't it.

Im just saying, today, it wasnt so much Justin's fault. It was the coaching. He did a few of the things Ive been waiting to see, so I have to be fair and give him his due.

But yeah, I dont want him going forward. I hope we can get some kind of trade value for him.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

But yeah, I dont want him going forward. I hope we can get some kind of trade value for him.

Do I dare ask you and Chile who you want as QB instead? . 😉

[adam]

2 hours ago, ChileBear said:

But he is incapable of leading a drive at the end of a game to pull out a win. He isn't it.

So if DET scores with 0:00 on the clock and Fields never gets the ball back. Did he do enough to win the game?

The offense scored 26 pts, and held the ball for 40 minutes. The defense allowed 29 pts in 19:36 of possession time. The offense had 25 first downs and had 71 plays. If the offense didn't hold the ball so long, the defense would've allowed 40+ in a normal game. If not for the 3 INTs, this would've been a blowout loss. They allowed 4 TD drives.

The craziest stat of all, the Bears allowed 3 TD drives of 70 yards or longer (73, 75, 75), and the time of possession for the Lions was 1:36, 1:16, and 2:04. So the INTs don't matter if you are allowing a team to score that quickly on other drives. The first one ended the 1st half and the other two were the last two of the game. Those are all game killing drives.

For Fields, after the defense allowed that last second TD drive before half, he started the 2nd half down 14-10 and rallied the team to a 26-14 lead with 4 minutes left. In those 4 minutes, he handed the ball off twice to Herbert into a 10-man box, then Scott misjudged a game sealing deep pass. 

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

he handed the ball off twice to Herbert into a 10-man box, then Scott misjudged a game sealing deep pass. 

That…is play calling and Scott being a rookie.  

[Mongo3451]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

In those 4 minutes, he handed the ball off twice to Herbert into a 10-man box, 

Flus had the balls to blame those plays on failed execution.  He said Justin had the choice to pull the ball and go outside.  OK, my question to Flus is, if he didn't see it the first time, why was it called again?

I would follow with, why did you go for a field goal instead of trying for a first down?(when you were already up 2 scores)  

Then,  why did you stay in prevent when they destroyed it just one minute ago?

Flus ain't the guy...

[Mongo3451]

Just now, Alaskan Grizzly said:

That…is play calling Scott being a rookie.  

There's another good one.  Why is Darnell Mooney not running that route?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

There's another good one.  Why is Darnell Mooney not running that route?

I think Scott is capable.  He showed some pretty impressive catches when Bagent was playing. He slowed up on this play for some inexplicable reason.  I’m sure he heard from Fields afterwards. I’d bet thatScott ends up getting Mooney’s spot on the roster next year.  🤷🏻‍♂️

[DABEARSDABOMB]

21 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Flus had the balls to blame those plays on failed execution.  He said Justin had the choice to pull the ball and go outside.  OK, my question to Flus is, if he didn't see it the first time, why was it called again?

I would follow with, why did you go for a field goal instead of trying for a first down?(when you were already up 2 scores)  

Then,  why did you stay in prevent when they destroyed it just one minute ago?

Flus ain't the guy...

That call to kick when it was already a two score game on 4th and 1 absolutely blew my mind. I mean what was the point of 9 vs 12. Nothing. But get the 1 yard and game is over.  And than going into soft shell late was cowardly too. Double cowardly cost them the game. 
 

This game gave me a bit of - get #1 - trade it again (including for a future 1st) and add more weapons for Fields and keep making team better. Do take a qb though (whether later in first or in 2nd with whomever drops). Let fields roll and have the back up be the other guy and have future first next year in case you need to go qb. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Do I dare ask you and Chile who you want as QB instead? . 😉

Ha Grizz! I have no answer for that question. I can tell you that at least one of the top four QBs (Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Penix etc) is going to be at least pretty good in the NFL. I don't know which one(s) it's going to be. Poles has a whole staff of scouts and such to give their opinions. And the pros often get it wrong too.

I think you do all the research you can, and then rank them. If you have more than one tied or close to tied at the top, you trade down but only far enough to get to the last guy in your first group. If you have one as a cant miss, you can do what it takes - but that guy has to be grading out way over the others. Because at the end of this, you're taking a chance with a guy to develop. Their outcome isnt set in stone, a lot of it has to do with how you teach them, and who you put around them. And no one has a crystal ball.

Im sure by draft time Ill have more opinions about this, but right now I havent seen enough to put a marker on any guy.

What I can say is once I've seen a guy not be able to do it over a large enough sample size, then I know that pushing the "next" button is really the only choice you can make. You know about the guy youre moving on from - you have first hand in the building several years of working with someone, so as a GM you have your opinion, but you cant know much about the "next" guys. Those are lottery tickets, and sometimes they are even worse than what you had. But you have to keep "next"-ing until you find one that blossoms in your system.

[ChileBear]

42 minutes ago, adam said:

So if DET scores with 0:00 on the clock and Fields never gets the ball back. Did he do enough to win the game?

The offense scored 26 pts, and held the ball for 40 minutes. The defense allowed 29 pts in 19:36 of possession time. The offense had 25 first downs and had 71 plays. If the offense didn't hold the ball so long, the defense would've allowed 40+ in a normal game. If not for the 3 INTs, this would've been a blowout loss. They allowed 4 TD drives.

The craziest stat of all, the Bears allowed 3 TD drives of 70 yards or longer (73, 75, 75), and the time of possession for the Lions was 1:36, 1:16, and 2:04. So the INTs don't matter if you are allowing a team to score that quickly on other drives. The first one ended the 1st half and the other two were the last two of the game. Those are all game killing drives.

For Fields, after the defense allowed that last second TD drive before half, he started the 2nd half down 14-10 and rallied the team to a 26-14 lead with 4 minutes left. In those 4 minutes, he handed the ball off twice to Herbert into a 10-man box, then Scott misjudged a game sealing deep pass. 

 

 

3rd year in and we're still finding excuses for why Fields is better than he looks. Hell, I'm tired of loss after loss, not being able to mount any kind of comeback in a game, blaiming it all on everybody but the most impt. guy on the field. Justin has had enough opportunities. I'm done with him. 

And as far as who I would want if we draft, its not C.Williams, he's another Fields and that aint' gonna work.