Caleb Williams

[Stinger226]

I love Justin Fields and think he is going to be a good QB. I woke up listening to the SCORE this morning and the sports DJ , a former Chicago guy, now working in Cleveland has made the best case for our QB situation. 4042-26-5. That is a good season for a QB. Alex Smith was a good QB and KC drafted Mahomes anyways. He sat him for a yr and then Mahomes got his shot. Poles came from KC. 

No matter how you want to look at it Justin , he is not going to be Joe Burrows, Williams has the chance to do that. You dont have to hate Justin Fields like half the fan base to think another QB can be better. The DJ used Baker Mayfield as an example, Cleveland drafted him to be the guy, he didnt make it but is playing well in TB. He thinks Justin will end up being better but isnt the QB that will take you to multile SBs. Justin will take us to 10 wins next yr but not going to the SB. Justin will get better but then you have to pay him 50 mil and the rest of the roster starts disappearing. The days of  a great D and a good running game taking us to the SB are over.

As you accept Justin , you just look around at your other options and try to tear them down to prove your point. Are we doing that with Williams? Or maybe Poles thinks its Maye or Daniels? I think he is in the best position to figure that out over us. I was using the argument that you have to develop him for a yr or 2 and then play him. Burrows took Cinn to a SB in his second yr and we have a better roster than they did that yr. 

I am listening to the draft Caleb Williams talk and still love Justin Fields. You can do both. If we get a 2nd round pick for Justin, Poles will trade him. Poles may talk someone into a  first, he's lucky like that.  If its only a 3rd, he may bring him back for one yr because he is cheap at 6 mil. I can see the scenario where we are winnng next yr with Justin and he gets hurt for a few games and Caleb plays and never gives up his job. Trade Justin at the trade deadline and then get a 1 for him. We should want Justin to win with his special talent (trade value),  then we make the playoffs and live happily ever after. 

So if he takes Williams with the first pick, my best case scenario is we get Bowers with our 2nd pick. If that doesnt work there are a couple other special WRs in the draft. Nabers- Odunze. Poles brings in a center and another saftey in FA. Another DL would be great. If he takes a DL with the second pick. Newton, Dallas Turner, there are 8 WRs in the draft that would upgrade our WR room.  He could trade back with the second pick , pick up a second round, and still get Bralen Trice or Jared Verse. Our first 2 picks have to be difference makers , weapon or pass rusher. LT is a thought but Jones is improved enough that I dont think he is redrafing positions, (Wright and Jones). 

There are a lot of guys in FA to get but , Poles is only giving out 1 big contract ( cap health), and that may be JJ. If thats the case, he may be bringing back Justin Jones and a few current rostered players. Another WR, Mooney wont be here if Justin is gone, he's just not paying one a big contract. 

I am a gambler at heart  and sticking with 2 pair (Fields) is okay but Im going for a royal flush . ( Williams). If Poles thinks that Maye or Daniels, so be it. 

[killakrzydav]

https://www.si.com/college/usc/football/usc-football-caleb-williams-mercilessly-shredded-after-apparent-bears-diss-ak1987

 

[Stinger226]

38 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

https://www.si.com/college/usc/football/usc-football-caleb-williams-mercilessly-shredded-after-apparent-bears-diss-ak1987

 

That's an interesting article, thanks for bringing it to my attention. Intangables matter too.

[adam]

Stinger, you are spot on. I like Fields, but I think someone like Williams has a higher ceiling as a passer. 

I am super high on Justin Fields and he is an NFL starter. If you had to break down his overall game where 2/3 of the grade was as a passer, and 1/3 as a runner, what would that look like? For me I would give him a 70 for a passer, not great, but not the worst, probably slightly below average. Then as a runner, I would give him a 92, with the only knocks being the sacks and fumbles. (70x.66 +92x.33)= 76.6. If you figure the top 10 QBs would grade out over 85, then the next 10 between 75-84, Fields would be near the bottom of that second 10. Say 18th. He is 22nd in QBR and 22nd in ELO, so I think that assessment is pretty solid. So the question becomes is Fields worth a 2nd contract that would pay him over $40M a year over drafting a QB, then using that cap space to sign a free agent for 4 years?

For Williams, he displays things on tape that a lot of QB prospects don't, which projects him towards being a top 10 passer. Now that is not a guarantee, but the foundation is there once someone like him adjusts to the speed and size of the NFL. 

Without a 2nd rounder, I think there are a few scenarios where they draft Williams, then either take a WR/TE (Nabers/Odunze/Bowers) with that 2nd first rounder, then go Center in the 3rd. They could recoup a 2nd rounder for Fields (LVR at #44 or ATL at #47) and go Edge or Safety there. Also, they can also bring in an extra free agent without cap issues.

I think out of respect for Fields, they wouldn't keep him as a lame duck QB in 2024. I think they move him to a team that is willing to sign him and/or accept the 5th year option.

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Stinger, you are spot on. I like Fields, but I think someone like Williams has a higher ceiling as a passer. 

I am super high on Justin Fields and he is an NFL starter. If you had to break down his overall game where 2/3 of the grade was as a passer, and 1/3 as a runner, what would that look like? For me I would give him a 70 for a passer, not great, but not the worst, probably slightly below average. Then as a runner, I would give him a 92, with the only knocks being the sacks and fumbles. (70x.66 +92x.33)= 76.6. If you figure the top 10 QBs would grade out over 85, then the next 10 between 75-84, Fields would be near the bottom of that second 10. Say 18th. He is 22nd in QBR and 22nd in ELO, so I think that assessment is pretty solid. So the question becomes is Fields worth a 2nd contract that would pay him over $40M a year over drafting a QB, then using that cap space to sign a free agent for 4 years?

For Williams, he displays things on tape that a lot of QB prospects don't, which projects him towards being a top 10 passer. Now that is not a guarantee, but the foundation is there once someone like him adjusts to the speed and size of the NFL. 

Without a 2nd rounder, I think there are a few scenarios where they draft Williams, then either take a WR/TE (Nabers/Odunze/Bowers) with that 2nd first rounder, then go Center in the 3rd. They could recoup a 2nd rounder for Fields (LVR at #44 or ATL at #47) and go Edge or Safety there. Also, they can also bring in an extra free agent without cap issues.

I think out of respect for Fields, they wouldn't keep him as a lame duck QB in 2024. I think they move him to a team that is willing to sign him and/or accept the 5th year option.

 

I agree with all of this, except I'm not sold on Williams yet. I see a lot of intriguing QB prospects in the draft this year, and I havent put my marker down yet on who i think is going to succeed in the NFL and who will bust out. I need to do a bunch more work until Im there.

But standing here, looking only at stats and social media, Caleb Williams scares me, and I sure dont like his anti Bears tweeting, the fingernail painting, holding the ball too long etc.

I had that same bad feeling with Claypool during the offseason. People said I wasnt being fair to him. Maybe i wasnt. But he was the psychological turd I though he was. That doesnt mean Ill be right again, it just means I have concerns.

Then again, people had non performance related issues with Warren Sapp, Randy Moss and other players I'd die to have had.

So I gotta watch more film. Maye, Daniels, Penix and even McCarthy are all interesting to me, but I need to see a lot more film.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Stinger, you are spot on. I like Fields, but I think someone like Williams has a higher ceiling as a passer. 

I am super high on Justin Fields and he is an NFL starter. If you had to break down his overall game where 2/3 of the grade was as a passer, and 1/3 as a runner, what would that look like? For me I would give him a 70 for a passer, not great, but not the worst, probably slightly below average. Then as a runner, I would give him a 92, with the only knocks being the sacks and fumbles. (70x.66 +92x.33)= 76.6. If you figure the top 10 QBs would grade out over 85, then the next 10 between 75-84, Fields would be near the bottom of that second 10. Say 18th. He is 22nd in QBR and 22nd in ELO, so I think that assessment is pretty solid. So the question becomes is Fields worth a 2nd contract that would pay him over $40M a year over drafting a QB, then using that cap space to sign a free agent for 4 years?

For Williams, he displays things on tape that a lot of QB prospects don't, which projects him towards being a top 10 passer. Now that is not a guarantee, but the foundation is there once someone like him adjusts to the speed and size of the NFL. 

Without a 2nd rounder, I think there are a few scenarios where they draft Williams, then either take a WR/TE (Nabers/Odunze/Bowers) with that 2nd first rounder, then go Center in the 3rd. They could recoup a 2nd rounder for Fields (LVR at #44 or ATL at #47) and go Edge or Safety there. Also, they can also bring in an extra free agent without cap issues.

I think out of respect for Fields, they wouldn't keep him as a lame duck QB in 2024. I think they move him to a team that is willing to sign him and/or accept the 5th year option.

 

I am just now trying to evauluate Williams and see what all the hype is about. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Caleb will have to decide Jan 15 to stay in school or enter the draft, so 3 weeks.

[killakrzydav]

He’s too much of a bitch for me to want him as a Bear 

[adam]

48 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

He’s too much of a bitch for me to want him as a Bear 

The attitude stuff does worry me. How will vets handle that persona in an NFL locker room, especially if they lost their beloved QB for him. Time will tell how that all works out. Mahomes is literally Kermit, and that worked out. Mayfield was kind of a punk and he looks good on his 3rd team. Mitch Trubisky drove a Camry. 

[adam]

The one thing that is notable about Williams is he is pretty decisive and has a quick drop back. That makes the timing routes look so much smoother. Then he still has the ridiculous passes like these: 

One concern of mine is him holding the ball with one hand when he is in the pocket, that has led to some fumbles and will need to be cleaned up.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The one thing that is notable about Williams is he is pretty decisive and has a quick drop back. That makes the timing routes look so much smoother. Then he still has the ridiculous passes like these: 

One concern of mine is him holding the ball with one hand when he is in the pocket, that has led to some fumbles and will need to be cleaned up.

I read where his average time at holding the ball before he throws is 3.4 seconds, isn't that what people complain about with Justin. He plays wildcard a lot, same as Justin. I will keep close tabs on his evaluation process. There has to be a reason so many people like him. It can't be just based on stats. If he turns into Joe Burrows, the team will buy in quickly. They can see what fans see besides they still get paid whoever the QB is.

[adam]

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I read where his average time at holding the ball before he throws is 3.4 seconds, isn't that what people complain about with Justin. He plays wildcard a lot, same as Justin. I will keep close tabs on his evaluation process. There has to be a reason so many people like him. It can't be just based on stats. If he turns into Joe Burrows, the team will buy in quickly. They can see what fans see besides they still get paid whoever the QB is.

The TTT stat doesn't take into account scrambles with passes. So if Fields/Williams elude rushers, rollout, then throw it, that makes the time go up considerably. Russell Wilson used to have a super high TTT when he was doing the houdini act in the backfield, but since he would still throw it after 8 seconds, it would make like his TTT was really high, but in reality his normal drop backs were in the normal range.

What the holding the ball looks like is the patting of the ball or the hitch then throw making the throw late in the progression or window. Fields does that a lot. Williams does it some but not at the same rate as Fields does. 

[Stinger226]

When the season ends, we will see the evaluation process. If he is Joe Burrows, i want Poles to take him, he will decide that. I think Maye or Daniels could be it to, just dont know. Poles will do everything to find out. he may not think any of them are special and bring back Fields and draft Nix or Penix. Everything is on the table. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I hope if we get number one we take Caleb. Dude can fling it. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

7 hours ago, adam said:

The TTT stat doesn't take into account scrambles with passes. So if Fields/Williams elude rushers, rollout, then throw it, that makes the time go up considerably. Russell Wilson used to have a super high TTT when he was doing the houdini act in the backfield, but since he would still throw it after 8 seconds, it would make like his TTT was really high, but in reality his normal drop backs were in the normal range.

What the holding the ball looks like is the patting of the ball or the hitch then throw making the throw late in the progression or window. Fields does that a lot. Williams does it some but not at the same rate as Fields does. 

Williams is deadly on slants and can do a ton in rhythm. It’s not always consistent cause he big game hunts…but his slant is excellent and he uses whole field. 

[Mongo3451]

Williams, undoubtedly has ridiculous arm talent.  His lack of humility scares me a little.

[adam]

Miller Moss? USC backup throws for 6 TDs in a bowl game against a ranked opponent, throwing to backups? Unless Louisville didn't have a bunch of players play, this looks really bad for Caleb Williams. If a backup can do that in his first game, in a bowl game no less, and put up 372 passing yards and 6 TDs, how much of your success was the offense? That is what the scouts have to decipher, but that does not look good for Caleb Williams fans.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 12/26/2023 at 11:55 AM, adam said:

I like Fields, but I think someone like Williams has a higher ceiling as a passer

I’m legitimately curious why you think that. You mean against NFL competition?  If so, how?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Miller Moss? USC backup throws for 6 TDs in a bowl game against a ranked opponent, throwing to backups? Unless Louisville didn't have a bunch of players play, this looks really bad for Caleb Williams. If a backup can do that in his first game, in a bowl game no less, and put up 372 passing yards and 6 TDs, how much of your success was the offense? That is what the scouts have to decipher, but that does not look good for Caleb Williams fans.

This is eerily a Tua vs Hurts redux but in a shorter span.  So now the question is, does Williams jump to the NFL now with his backup doing what he did?  AGAINST A RANKED TEAM?  Or stick around another year and risk a) losing his starting gig and b) going down in draft status?  Can he still enter the transfer portal? 
 

He already dropped out of Heisman contention this year due to his lack of production against better teams and what appeared to be meltdowns post game(s).  This guys’ stock is tumbling fast.  Maybe he’s worth a 2nd round?  Maybe?  🤔 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

You guys are nuts - Williams is going top 3 unless he suffers some serious injury or says he doesn’t want to play. 
 

He has elite arm talent and athleticism and has put up outstanding stats at two programs. Oh in a bowl game the backup threw for 6 tds against a lousy Louisville team with a bad defense where Lincoln Riley had a month to prepare. Watch the highlights a few of those tds were not good passes just 50 / 50 balls. Great story by Miller but had no bearing on how good Williams is. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m legitimately curious why you think that. You mean against NFL competition?  If so, how?

Projection based on college passing sample size and production. The entire 2021 class was impacted by COVID lockdowns so there was a lot less tape on them coming out than normal. Williams has a lot more reps coming out than Fields, so he has a lot more passing attempts to look at. In the 200+ or so I have seen (not just highlights), Williams passing game looks more calm than Fields. It looks more natural for Williams for some reason. I guess he makes it look easier?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

18 minutes ago, adam said:

Projection based on college passing sample size and production. The entire 2021 class was impacted by COVID lockdowns so there was a lot less tape on them coming out than normal. Williams has a lot more reps coming out than Fields, so he has a lot more passing attempts to look at. In the 200+ or so I have seen (not just highlights), Williams passing game looks more calm than Fields. It looks more natural for Williams for some reason. I guess he makes it look easier?

Meanwhile - in 3 NFL seasons - Justin Fields consistently makes routine throws look difficult.  We talk about his downfield passing attack - yet the Bears rank 27th in downfield passing advanced stats (despite having Moore).  And we can knock Mooney but Fields has consistently missed Mooney down the field.  Point blank - Fields has shown one thing - he is a mediocre to poor NFL passer, a hard working dude, and a stellar physical athlete at the position.  Unfortunately the poor NFL passer hinders everything else and you really can't win consistently without making massive strides.  Oh and by the way - this is the same knock he had coming out of college and why he fell in the draft (as teams worried how Fields couldn't show the progression progress in his final season at OSU).  

Why we as Bears fans like to make excuses for Fields and not hold him accountable is beyond me.  But reality is - this is a guy who outside of a few games has consistently looked like a poor passing NFL QB with elite athleticism.  If it weren't for the elite athleticism he would have been benched a year ago and been talked about like Zach Wilson (who is a historic bust).  Him and Lance are why I would never go early on a small school QB.  

If you listened to Mark Sanchez the last 2 weeks - you could hear it in his announcing.  He toes the line and I get it, its Mark Sanchez, but lets not forget that he knows a heck of a lot more than us.  Sanchez was consistently showing Fields being off rhythm and off timing. And no - I don't think Getsy is a very good OC - but I think a really good QB can make a mediocre OC look good more so than a really bad OC can make a top notch QB look bad. Read that a few times - I think a good OC can absolutely help - but Fields has flat out looked BAD as a passer for 3 years.  I think at best a good OC could make him look decent - is decent really what we are striving for.  And I get it - if I were the Falcons or someone else - I might take a shot and see what could happen and design an entire offense around him, but with the Bears being where they are - they don't have to take a Hail Mary at Fields, they have a ton of options.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Also - for the Bo Nix / Penix Jr people on here - let's not forget Fields is within a year of them in age.  I'll roll with Fields before I take a 1st rounder on either of them.  Jaden Daniel's is 23 too - but not as old as Nix/Penix Jr.  Those are men playing against boys and it makes a difference. 

Meanwhile Maye is 21 and Caleb just turned 22.  McCarthy is about to turn 21.  McCarthy and Harbaugh is my absolute favorite - but in general I would be giddy to get Harbaugh. There is a balancing act in all of this - because McCarthy has so few snaps the bust rate on guys that raw is huge (and quite frankly McCarthy would probably benefit significantly from sitting a season - but Harbaugh loves the guy and refers to him on same level as Andrew Luck).  

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Meanwhile - in 3 NFL seasons - Justin Fields consistently makes routine throws look difficult.  We talk about his downfield passing attack - yet the Bears rank 27th in downfield passing advanced stats (despite having Moore).  And we can knock Mooney but Fields has consistently missed Mooney down the field.  Point blank - Fields has shown one thing - he is a mediocre to poor NFL passer, a hard working dude, and a stellar physical athlete at the position.  Unfortunately the poor NFL passer hinders everything else and you really can't win consistently without making massive strides.  Oh and by the way - this is the same knock he had coming out of college and why he fell in the draft (as teams worried how Fields couldn't show the progression progress in his final season at OSU).  

Why we as Bears fans like to make excuses for Fields and not hold him accountable is beyond me.  But reality is - this is a guy who outside of a few games has consistently looked like a poor passing NFL QB with elite athleticism.  If it weren't for the elite athleticism he would have been benched a year ago and been talked about like Zach Wilson (who is a historic bust).  Him and Lance are why I would never go early on a small school QB.  

If you listened to Mark Sanchez the last 2 weeks - you could hear it in his announcing.  He toes the line and I get it, its Mark Sanchez, but lets not forget that he knows a heck of a lot more than us.  Sanchez was consistently showing Fields being off rhythm and off timing. And no - I don't think Getsy is a very good OC - but I think a really good QB can make a mediocre OC look good more so than a really bad OC can make a top notch QB look bad. Read that a few times - I think a good OC can absolutely help - but Fields has flat out looked BAD as a passer for 3 years.  I think at best a good OC could make him look decent - is decent really what we are striving for.  And I get it - if I were the Falcons or someone else - I might take a shot and see what could happen and design an entire offense around him, but with the Bears being where they are - they don't have to take a Hail Mary at Fields, they have a ton of options.  

well said. I dont understand why more dont see it, but well said.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Also - for the Bo Nix / Penix Jr people on here - let's not forget Fields is within a year of them in age.  I'll roll with Fields before I take a 1st rounder on either of them.  Jaden Daniel's is 23 too - but not as old as Nix/Penix Jr.  Those are men playing against boys and it makes a difference. 

Meanwhile Maye is 21 and Caleb just turned 22.  McCarthy is about to turn 21.  McCarthy and Harbaugh is my absolute favorite - but in general I would be giddy to get Harbaugh. There is a balancing act in all of this - because McCarthy has so few snaps the bust rate on guys that raw is huge (and quite frankly McCarthy would probably benefit significantly from sitting a season - but Harbaugh loves the guy and refers to him on same level as Andrew Luck).  

I really like Penix, but he has had a bunch of injuries too. He still may end up being my favorite, but it's a concern.