adam Posted April 1 Author Report Share Posted April 1 The more I run through these mock drafts, the more I come to these conclusions: 1. If the Bears have a blue chipper at 9, they are not trading back. I think that includes the 3 WRs, Alt, and probably Turner. Unless someone is offering up a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd, I think they are standing pat. 2. If they do trade back, I think they will trade back at least one more time and pickup a 2025 pick (instead of a 2024). So if they trade back and get back a 2nd, I can see them trading back in the 3rd to pickup a 2025 4th or something like that. 3. I don't think you are finding a starter after the 2nd round this year. So if the Bears don't trade back, besides Williams, #9 may be the only rookie starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 2 hours ago, adam said: The more I run through these mock drafts, the more I come to these conclusions: 1. If the Bears have a blue chipper at 9, they are not trading back. I think that includes the 3 WRs, Alt, and probably Turner. Unless someone is offering up a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd, I think they are standing pat. 2. If they do trade back, I think they will trade back at least one more time and pickup a 2025 pick (instead of a 2024). So if they trade back and get back a 2nd, I can see them trading back in the 3rd to pickup a 2025 4th or something like that. 3. I don't think you are finding a starter after the 2nd round this year. So if the Bears don't trade back, besides Williams, #9 may be the only rookie starter. 1) makes total sense. 2) I think you're taking into account the discounted value of a future pick, and the lack of depth in this draft? Makes sense to me. I think you're also saying that you could see us trade back the #9 pick down maybe 5ish slots to still target a starter in the top 18, and then if we do that, trading down with the extra pick we got to convert it to 2025 draft capital? That makes sense. You get another player this year and next year. 3) agree, except a possible 3rd round center or special teamer I think this is zeroed in on where we are. You might add a couple names to your 1 scenario though, maybe a different OT than Alt (Fashanu or Fuaga? Imagine Fuaga as a run blocking guard too! Maybe Jenkins' replacement?), maybe a different DE than Turner who doesnt really fit our system that well? He's more of an OLB Edge? Maybe Verse or Latu? If we haver any of those extra guys super highly rated over the others, we might take them at 9, but if we have them in tiers, then a trade back seems likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 Seen where Carolina along with NE and Washington are predicted to have the worst records next year. Carolina could give a top 35 pick next year because of the 2023 trade that gets us their second pick. The 2023 trade by Poles was an amazing amount of players that still has a pay day. Wright- Stevenson, D J Moore- Caleb Williams and top 35 pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: Seen where Carolina along with NE and Washington are predicted to have the worst records next year. Carolina could give a top 35 pick next year because of the 2023 trade that gets us their second pick. The 2023 trade by Poles was an amazing amount of players that still has a pay day. Wright- Stevenson, D J Moore- Caleb Williams and top 35 pick. Lord Poles...😎 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 Minny or NE should be trade back partners from 9 for this reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 5 hours ago, killakrzydav said: Minny or NE should be trade back partners from 9 for this reason. I think Minny is going to trade up to 4 or 5 for a QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 15 hours ago, BearFan PHX said: 1) makes total sense. 2) I think you're taking into account the discounted value of a future pick, and the lack of depth in this draft? Makes sense to me. I think you're also saying that you could see us trade back the #9 pick down maybe 5ish slots to still target a starter in the top 18, and then if we do that, trading down with the extra pick we got to convert it to 2025 draft capital? That makes sense. You get another player this year and next year. 3) agree, except a possible 3rd round center or special teamer I think this is zeroed in on where we are. You might add a couple names to your 1 scenario though, maybe a different OT than Alt (Fashanu or Fuaga? Imagine Fuaga as a run blocking guard too! Maybe Jenkins' replacement?), maybe a different DE than Turner who doesnt really fit our system that well? He's more of an OLB Edge? Maybe Verse or Latu? If we haver any of those extra guys super highly rated over the others, we might take them at 9, but if we have them in tiers, then a trade back seems likely. 🍻🔥 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 Good year not to have 5th -7th round picks: https:/twitter.com/BrendanSugrue/status/1775158080822563292?s=20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, adam said: Good year not to have 5th -7th round picks: https:/twitter.com/BrendanSugrue/status/1775158080822563292?s=20 Maybe Poles and the scouting team are ahead of th curve and traded these picks ahead of the draft knowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 Poles has said this himself. I think that's why he trades his low round picks. NIL changed how people are coming out of school. Imo, there's 2 cliffs, one around twenty than the other around 75-90 dividing this draft classs into 3 pools. Players in the 1-20 grouping, 20-90, and 90+. Players wishing the grouping are pretty much interchangeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 Interesting take, that is if you use PFF as any sort of reliable ranking. Their 'Top 300 picks' show RBs as low as #227 on their list with a rating of 94.9. Compare that to Roshon Johnson (picked #4 at 115 last season) held a PFF rating of "80+ all four seasons" Samples of this year's group at RB: PFF #71 Jaylen Wright - HB Tennessee Rating: 91.0 PFF #207 Frank Gore Jr - HB Southern Miss Rating: 88 PFF #227 Isaiah Davis - HB South Dakota State Rating: 94.9 https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-profiles-top-200-draft-prospects Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 14 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Interesting take, that is if you use PFF as any sort of reliable ranking. Their 'Top 300 picks' show RBs as low as #227 on their list with a rating of 94.9. Compare that to Roshon Johnson (picked #4 at 115 last season) held a PFF rating of "80+ all four seasons" Samples of this year's group at RB: PFF #71 Jaylen Wright - HB Tennessee Rating: 91.0 PFF #207 Frank Gore Jr - HB Southern Miss Rating: 88 PFF #227 Isaiah Davis - HB South Dakota State Rating: 94.9 https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-profiles-top-200-draft-prospects I agree that PFF is total trash. By the time their "impartial grading data" makes it through their tortured algorithms, it comes out basically noise. However, I do think the lower rounds of this year's draft are still more barren of talent than most years because of the NIL situation delaying underclassmen this year. Going forward, the drafts will be regular again, even as underclassmen stay because this years underclassmen will be in next years draft. It's like 2024 is a negative leap year for draft talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 I worry that the NILs will create another problem. Some college players are making millions of dollars from NILs. Let's say they are eligible to play another year in college but enter the draft. They are drafted by a team they don't want to play for, for any number of reasons. (This happens quite often but until now they had no options) Now, with the NILs being an issue, some of those disgruntled players may return to the college teams, continue to rake in the money from endorsements, and reenter the draft the following year. I think the NFL needs to eliminate this before it becomes a major issue. I would say if a player commits to the NFL and is drafted, then decides to stick it to the team that drafted him by returning to his college team, he should be prohibited from reentering the draft the following year. If the NFL team that drafted him pays a penalty because of his callous decision, then he should also pay a price! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 34 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Interesting take, that is if you use PFF as any sort of reliable ranking. Their 'Top 300 picks' show RBs as low as #227 on their list with a rating of 94.9. Compare that to Roshon Johnson (picked #4 at 115 last season) held a PFF rating of "80+ all four seasons" Samples of this year's group at RB: PFF #71 Jaylen Wright - HB Tennessee Rating: 91.0 PFF #207 Frank Gore Jr - HB Southern Miss Rating: 88 PFF #227 Isaiah Davis - HB South Dakota State Rating: 94.9 https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-profiles-top-200-draft-prospects That is an interesting way to look at it but it is the RB position group, which is completely devalued anyway. Also, Roschon was a backup his entire collegiate career, so he would not compare PFF rating-wise to starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 42 minutes ago, Pixote said: I worry that the NILs will create another problem. Some college players are making millions of dollars from NILs. Let's say they are eligible to play another year in college but enter the draft. They are drafted by a team they don't want to play for, for any number of reasons. (This happens quite often but until now they had no options) Now, with the NILs being an issue, some of those disgruntled players may return to the college teams, continue to rake in the money from endorsements, and reenter the draft the following year. I think the NFL needs to eliminate this before it becomes a major issue. I would say if a player commits to the NFL and is drafted, then decides to stick it to the team that drafted him by returning to his college team, he should be prohibited from reentering the draft the following year. If the NFL team that drafted him pays a penalty because of his callous decision, then he should also pay a price! it is definitely causing that problem, but it will only be a problem this year. Going forward, more players will wait a year to come out, but they will enter the draft eventually. So this is the only year that pays the price for everyone to shift back one year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: it is definitely causing that problem, but it will only be a problem this year. Going forward, more players will wait a year to come out, but they will enter the draft eventually. So this is the only year that pays the price for everyone to shift back one year? Some players will still opt to enter the NFL Draft early with college eligibility remaining. Then, if they do so and find they are not happy (with the team that drafted them or maybe they thought by coming out early they'd be the top player in their position drafted only to find out they slide down the charts) then they could always return to their college team. So, as long as there are players leaving college for the NFL "early," the problem could remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 NFL can do nothing about NIL. Not a damned thing. Its a college issue. Think of chick sports. If you were a star one of these powerhouses, would you go pro to have to work a second season in a foreign county to make 1/10 of what NIL pays you? It's good for college sports. It's going nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, killakrzydav said: NFL can do nothing about NIL. Not a damned thing. Its a college issue. Think of chick sports. If you were a star one of these powerhouses, would you go pro to have to work a second season in a foreign county to make 1/10 of what NIL pays you? It's good for college sports. It's going nowhere. I agree. However, the NFL can do something to prevent/discourage a player who enters the draft, is drafted, and returns to play another year in college instead of playing for the team that drafts him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 I don't think they can ever go back once they declare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, killakrzydav said: I don't think they can ever go back once they declare. I could certainly be wrong, but I swear I read that a player could refuse to sign with the team that drafted them and return to the college system. Maybe another poster can confirm this or let me know I am senile. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, Pixote said: I could certainly be wrong, but I swear I read that a player could refuse to sign with the team that drafted them and return to the college system. Maybe another poster can confirm this or let me know I am senile. LOL A player can holdout, but can't go back to college as far as I know. They can re-enter the draft the following year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 14 minutes ago, adam said: A player can holdout, but can't go back to college as far as I know. They can re-enter the draft the following year. Yes, you and 'Kill' are probably right. I thought it changed recently with the NILs (allowing players to earn money from their sport before turning pro), but trying to research the question, it I am finding reports that the team drafting the players sustains rights to that player for one year. If they do not sign him, or trade him, after one year he can re-enter the draft. I still don't like the fact a player can screw a team who drafts him! But then again, I was a die-hard Colts fan growing up in the 50's and 60's and still find myself pissed off at Elway. (Damn, I have held a grudge for over 5 decades. LOL) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 yeah they can hold out and reenter the draft the next year (and get drafted by another bad team LOL) but once they declare for the draft, they cant go back to college. the best leverage is to have been drafted by a pro baseball or basketball team. Then you can just say youll go play another sport if the team you dont want drafts you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 Add two more to the list of 30 visits and Senior Bowl attendees: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Add Chop Robinson to 30 visit list. Odds are the Bears select at least one guy from the list of guys with 30 visits and Senior Bowl players: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Dylan Laube/RB Elijah Jones/CB Cam Hart/CB Nehemiah Pritchett/CB Sinnott is the only one that makes sense. Jackson would be a returner only, and they already have that with Velus. RB and CB would be wasted picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, adam said: Add two more to the list of 30 visits and Senior Bowl attendees: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Add Chop Robinson to 30 visit list. Odds are the Bears select at least one guy from the list of guys with 30 visits and Senior Bowl players: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Dylan Laube/RB Elijah Jones/CB Cam Hart/CB Nehemiah Pritchett/CB Sinnott is the only one that makes sense. Jackson would be a returner only, and they already have that with Velus. RB and CB would be wasted picks. I wonder if Waldron can find ways to use Velus instead of just him being cut. He has something you can't train for, speed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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