adam Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 OK, so I saw a graphic about this and had to look into it. Apparently, since 2000, there has only been a single Super Bowl victory that had a top 10 WR on the roster who was drafted by the team he played for in the Super Bowl. That is Mike Evans. There have been 33 picks in the top 10 used for a WR since 2000. It is ugly. Here are those 33 WRs, sorted by # of career receptions: 1 Larry Fitzgerald - Super Bowl loss (Kurt Warner) 2 Andre Johnson 3 Julio Jones - Super Bowl loss (28-3 thanks Shanny) 4 Mike Evans - Super Bowl win (Tom Brady) 5 Calvin Johnson 6 A.J. Green 7 Amari Cooper 8 Michael Crabtree 9 Plaxico Burress - played on winning team for NYG 10 Ted Ginn Jr. - 2x Super Bowl losses (w/ SF and CAR) 11 Roy Williams - Lions LOL! 12 Sammy Watkins - played on winning team for KC 13 Braylon Edwards 14 Travis Taylor 15 Mike Williams 16 Koren Robinson 17 Peter Warrick 18 Corey Davis 19 Ja'Marr Chase - Super Bowl loss 20 Jaylen Waddle 21 Tavon Austin 22 DeVonta Smith - Super Bowl loss 23 Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 Reggie Williams 25 Garrett Wilson 26 Drake London 27 David Terrell - Bear Down! 28 Mike Williams - Lions LOL! 29 Justin Blackmon 30 Troy Williamson 31 John Ross 32 Charles Rogers - Lions LOL! 33 Kevin White - Bear Down! So 5 Super Bowl appearance by 33 players, and a 1-4 record in the Super Bowl in the last quarter century. This does not look good at all. Also, only Jones, Chase, and Smith played in a Super Bowl with a QB drafted by the team. So 3 Super Bowl appearances, zero wins, by 33 players who were drafted in the top 10 who played with a QB drafted by the team. I know it seems convoluted, but if the Bears roll with Fields and draft MHJ or draft Williams and Odunze at 9, the odds of success are extremely low. This is a thing, right? Like that is too one-sided to not be a thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, adam said: OK, so I saw a graphic about this and had to look into it. Apparently, since 2000, there has only been a single Super Bowl victory that had a top 10 WR on the roster who was drafted by the team he played for in the Super Bowl. That is Mike Evans. There have been 33 picks in the top 10 used for a WR since 2000. It is ugly. Here are those 33 WRs, sorted by # of career receptions: 1 Larry Fitzgerald - Super Bowl loss (Kurt Warner) 2 Andre Johnson 3 Julio Jones - Super Bowl loss (28-3 thanks Shanny) 4 Mike Evans - Super Bowl win (Tom Brady) 5 Calvin Johnson 6 A.J. Green 7 Amari Cooper 8 Michael Crabtree 9 Plaxico Burress - played on winning team for NYG 10 Ted Ginn Jr. - 2x Super Bowl losses (w/ SF and CAR) 11 Roy Williams - Lions LOL! 12 Sammy Watkins - played on winning team for KC 13 Braylon Edwards 14 Travis Taylor 15 Mike Williams 16 Koren Robinson 17 Peter Warrick 18 Corey Davis 19 Ja'Marr Chase - Super Bowl loss 20 Jaylen Waddle 21 Tavon Austin 22 DeVonta Smith - Super Bowl loss 23 Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 Reggie Williams 25 Garrett Wilson 26 Drake London 27 David Terrell - Bear Down! 28 Mike Williams - Lions LOL! 29 Justin Blackmon 30 Troy Williamson 31 John Ross 32 Charles Rogers - Lions LOL! 33 Kevin White - Bear Down! So 5 Super Bowl appearance by 33 players, and a 1-4 record in the Super Bowl in the last quarter century. This does not look good at all. Also, only Jones, Chase, and Smith played in a Super Bowl with a QB drafted by the team. So 3 Super Bowl appearances, zero wins, by 33 players who were drafted in the top 10 who played with a QB drafted by the team. I know it seems convoluted, but if the Bears roll with Fields and draft MHJ or draft Williams and Odunze at 9, the odds of success are extremely low. This is a thing, right? Like that is too one-sided to not be a thing. Would Cincy be in the neighborhood without Chase though? It is geat QBs that win and sometimes it takes great tools and weapons for those QBs to reach their potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: Would Cincy be in the neighborhood without Chase though? It is geat QBs that win and sometimes it takes great tools and weapons for those QBs to reach their potential. They were 9-8 this year. I don't know. It is just odd to me that all these highly drafted WRs have achieved relatively nothing compared to other position groups. What I am wondering is if it is a value thing. Meaning, if you take a WR in the top 10, you are bypassing another position group that is more expensive, so you are getting less value out of that position. Basically WRs are overrated and overpaid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, adam said: OK, so I saw a graphic about this and had to look into it. Apparently, since 2000, there has only been a single Super Bowl victory that had a top 10 WR on the roster who was drafted by the team he played for in the Super Bowl. That is Mike Evans. There have been 33 picks in the top 10 used for a WR since 2000. It is ugly. Here are those 33 WRs, sorted by # of career receptions: 1 Larry Fitzgerald - Super Bowl loss (Kurt Warner) 2 Andre Johnson 3 Julio Jones - Super Bowl loss (28-3 thanks Shanny) 4 Mike Evans - Super Bowl win (Tom Brady) 5 Calvin Johnson 6 A.J. Green 7 Amari Cooper 8 Michael Crabtree 9 Plaxico Burress - played on winning team for NYG 10 Ted Ginn Jr. - 2x Super Bowl losses (w/ SF and CAR) 11 Roy Williams - Lions LOL! 12 Sammy Watkins - played on winning team for KC 13 Braylon Edwards 14 Travis Taylor 15 Mike Williams 16 Koren Robinson 17 Peter Warrick 18 Corey Davis 19 Ja'Marr Chase - Super Bowl loss 20 Jaylen Waddle 21 Tavon Austin 22 DeVonta Smith - Super Bowl loss 23 Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 Reggie Williams 25 Garrett Wilson 26 Drake London 27 David Terrell - Bear Down! 28 Mike Williams - Lions LOL! 29 Justin Blackmon 30 Troy Williamson 31 John Ross 32 Charles Rogers - Lions LOL! 33 Kevin White - Bear Down! So 5 Super Bowl appearance by 33 players, and a 1-4 record in the Super Bowl in the last quarter century. This does not look good at all. Also, only Jones, Chase, and Smith played in a Super Bowl with a QB drafted by the team. So 3 Super Bowl appearances, zero wins, by 33 players who were drafted in the top 10 who played with a QB drafted by the team. I know it seems convoluted, but if the Bears roll with Fields and draft MHJ or draft Williams and Odunze at 9, the odds of success are extremely low. This is a thing, right? Like that is too one-sided to not be a thing. In looking at information like this you always have to consider there's a high rate of bust with first round picks plus great QBs elevate WRs so all the great WRs aren't top 10 picks . A lot on that list aren't top WRs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 52 minutes ago, adam said: They were 9-8 this year. I don't know. It is just odd to me that all these highly drafted WRs have achieved relatively nothing compared to other position groups. What I am wondering is if it is a value thing. Meaning, if you take a WR in the top 10, you are bypassing another position group that is more expensive, so you are getting less value out of that position. Basically WRs are overrated and overpaid. One thing that has morphed in the last 5 years is wideouts seem to have gotten a new upper echelon in terms of how much they get paid. I know there were always a few that got paid -but than we got into the point where wideouts are now being paid more like top end DE's - which changes the structure and maybe increases the benefit of drafting a wideout early (and locking them into a rookie deal). With that said - I am curious if the wideout bust rate is higher or materially different than other positions. If it turns out - wideouts in top 10 bust 20% more than dlinemen or OT's in top 10 - that would be an interesting data point as well. I will admit - I have long been on the - take a QB and get him help. Help likely meant WR - however, help also could very well be one of the top to LT's are sitting there and that is not a bad thing either. Jones becomes a swing tackle (I don't know if he can move to guard) and than you now need to sign a free agent center. Than invest in a wide receiver or two later in the draft (probably using the pick(s) you get from Fields to get it) and add a vet wideout as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Stinger226 said: In looking at information like this you always have to consider there's a high rate of bust with first round picks plus great QBs elevate WRs so all the great WRs aren't top 10 picks . A lot on that list aren't top WRs 47 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: One thing that has morphed in the last 5 years is wideouts seem to have gotten a new upper echelon in terms of how much they get paid. I know there were always a few that got paid -but than we got into the point where wideouts are now being paid more like top end DE's - which changes the structure and maybe increases the benefit of drafting a wideout early (and locking them into a rookie deal). With that said - I am curious if the wideout bust rate is higher or materially different than other positions. If it turns out - wideouts in top 10 bust 20% more than dlinemen or OT's in top 10 - that would be an interesting data point as well. I will admit - I have long been on the - take a QB and get him help. Help likely meant WR - however, help also could very well be one of the top to LT's are sitting there and that is not a bad thing either. Jones becomes a swing tackle (I don't know if he can move to guard) and than you now need to sign a free agent center. Than invest in a wide receiver or two later in the draft (probably using the pick(s) you get from Fields to get it) and add a vet wideout as well. I will do some research tonight and break it down by position since 2000 using the top 10 picks (since we have 2). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 The data is skewed a bit by the fact that teams drafting in the top ten are the worst in the league. By the way, despite that, there are still some great names on your list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 Cracker, I agree. It shows that the top drafting teams are the worst teams, and it shows that WR isnt the position that takes over a game. QB is. But of course, there have been major difference making WRs. Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Calvin Johnson - theres a long list. But if you were to choose between a generational WR or a generational QB, QB is the way to go. Mahomes is still winning the super bowl, while Tyreek Hill is not. Kelce is the 16th in receiving yards this year. DJ Moore was 13th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 I think it shows that the worst teams don’t benefit much by drafting a WR highly because the WR is a player that only benefits from a sound team. That means an offense that’s established, with a coach who has had time to create and foster a successful culture, with an OC who has a proven track record. Otherwise, a prima Donna WR is drafted, and the support structure above fails the player. Of course, I believe the coaching flaws can be mitigated with the right OL, because players who are in the NFL are realistically good enough to do well if they have time to throw and/or run their routes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 18 hours ago, CrackerDog said: The data is skewed a bit by the fact that teams drafting in the top ten are the worst in the league. By the way, despite that, there are still some great names on your list Teams that make the SB usually have great OLs , there are always exceptions but OLs help the QB and the running game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 15 Author Report Share Posted February 15 I am working on doing all the other positions in the top 10 to see how they end up. It may just correlate the same way, which would ultimately mean the bad teams rarely become good in a timeframe where a top 10 pick is still on their team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 8 hours ago, adam said: I am working on doing all the other positions in the top 10 to see how they end up. It may just correlate the same way, which would ultimately mean the bad teams rarely become good in a timeframe where a top 10 pick is still on their team. Excellent point there - really appreciate the deep dives you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 9 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: Excellent point there - really appreciate the deep dives you do. For RBs, it is better for just the RB but not the RB+QB combo. 17 RBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. There were 2 Super Bowl wins (Lewis and Bush) with 4 total appearances (2-2) adding Gurley and Benson. What is crazy is in those 2 Super Bowls, they had Dilfer and Brees, both drafted by a different team. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team So far I have not found a top 10 RB or WR that was drafted by the same team as their QB who won a Super Bowl together, ouch. That is pretty wild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 5 TEs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Vernon Davis - 3 Super Bowls, lost 2 with SF, won one on the roster in DEN. Kellen Winslow T.J. Hockenson Kyle Pitts Eric Ebron Small sample size, but only Davis has been to a Super Bowl, 0/5 = 0% Super Bowl wins, 1/5 = 20% Super Bowl Appearance. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 39 Offensive Linemen have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 39, 3 (Johnson, Okung, Fisher) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 8%. Surprisingly 8 OLs have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~21%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Next up QB, to close out the offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 43 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 43, only 2 (Eli Manning and Patrick Mahomes) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 5%. Only 6 (Ryan, Manning, Newton, Mahomes, Goff, and Burrow) have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~14%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Stafford won one with LAR, Leftwich was a backup with PIT when they won. So for Offensive Players, there have been 137 drafted in the top 10 since 2000. 17.5% have made a Super Bowl appearance with their drafted team, and 5.8% have won one with their drafted team. Summary: RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OFF - 5.8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 17% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 I hope defense looks better. RB was shocking to be honest. I did not expect it to be the best one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 The stats are off. Look at TE You should compare player stats to teams % to go to Superbowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 35 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: The stats are off. Look at TE You should compare player stats to teams % to go to Superbowl For TEs, only 1 of 5 made it to a Super Bowl, that's 20% of the TEs drafted in the top 10. None won one, so zero. I don't know what is wrong there. Davis went to 2 with the 49ers, so a top 10 TE appeared with his drafted team in 8.3% of the Super Bowls since 2000. I was doing this from a drafted player perspective, not overall total appearances. Mahomes would really skew the stats for QB. He counts as 1 QB to win and appear out of the number of QBs that were also drafted in the top 10. This is the likelihood that a specific position drafted in the top 10 will win or appear in a Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 50 minutes ago, adam said: For TEs, only 1 of 5 made it to a Super Bowl, that's 20% of the TEs drafted in the top 10. None won one, so zero. I don't know what is wrong there. Davis went to 2 with the 49ers, so a top 10 TE appeared with his drafted team in 8.3% of the Super Bowls since 2000. I was doing this from a drafted player perspective, not overall total appearances. Mahomes would really skew the stats for QB. He counts as 1 QB to win and appear out of the number of QBs that were also drafted in the top 10. This is the likelihood that a specific position drafted in the top 10 will win or appear in a Super Bowl. Oh, forgot it was a top 10 topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said: Oh, forgot it was a top 10 topic. Yeah, these are supposed to be the guaranteed hit guys. It's just interesting how few make it to a Super Bowl with their drafted team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, adam said: Yeah, these are supposed to be the guaranteed hit guys. It's just interesting how few make it to a Super Bowl with their drafted team. So the moral of the story is, don’t draft first round players with the intent to win a Super Bowl. But instead wait until their 4-5th year (or later) to sign them and then make the run? 😂👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 16 Author Report Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: So the moral of the story is, don’t draft first round players with the intent to win a Super Bowl. But instead wait until their 4-5th year (or later) to sign them and then make the run? 😂👍 I don't know if correlation equals causation here. I suspect defensive players will have a higher rate. I think it means good/great teams rarely draft in the top 10 (KC traded up for Mahomes), and rarely do teams with a top 10 pick improve enough from a bottom 10 team to a Super Bowl contender with the drafted player still on their roster. It makes sense. The Bears situation is super unique. This will be the first time a team that didn't finish with the worst record is drafting #1 overall without having to trade up for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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