Year 2 QB QBR Tracker

[Bears4Ever_34]

Bo Nix is 2018 Mitchell Trubisky on this Broncos team. Where would he be without that defense?

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Bo Nix is 2018 Mitchell Trubisky on this Broncos team. Where would he be without that defense?

I assume by your comment, you watched tonight's game? Pete Carroll is an idiot. Why in the h*ll did he allow G Smith to return to the field when he could hardly walk? STUPID!!!

[adam]

10 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Bo Nix is 2018 Mitchell Trubisky on this Broncos team. Where would he be without that defense?

Yeah, the difference is Payton is better than Nagy. Outside of like 5 quarters of play, Nix has been terrible. In those 5 quarters though, All Pro QB. In the other 35, not an NFL starter.

8 hours ago, Pixote said:

I assume by your comment, you watched tonight's game? Pete Carroll is an idiot. Why in the h*ll did he allow G Smith to return to the field when he could hardly walk? STUPID!!!

Carroll was a great coach and rah rah guy, but not anymore. He looks lost out there. 

[adam]

Can you imagine the media firestorm if Williams threw 2 INTs with several other bad throws, only had 150 yards passing with one of them for 43 yds, which means the other 15 were for 107 yards? Instead, Nix wins Player of the Game, lmao!

The game-winning FG came after a blocked punt where the offense lost 2 yards. 

Nix in his last 2 games combined: 34-65, 52.3%, 323 yds, 4.97 Y/A, 3 TD, 3 INT - but both were wins, so he is gritty.

In those 2 games, DEN allowed a total of 22 pts and scored 28 lmao. 

[adam]

Week 10 - 

1. Maye - XXX
Season QBR: 74.2, 2,285 yards, 17-4 TD-INT, 34 Sacks, 2 TD, 1 FL

2. Penix - XXX
Season QBR: 57.7, 1649 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 1 TD, 1 FL

3. Williams - XXX
Season QBR: 55.4, 1916 yards, 12-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. 

4. Nix - 53.4 QBR -  150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, -2 Rush Yds. 148 Total Yards. Won
Season QBR: 54.9, 2126 yards, 18-8 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 3 TD

5. Daniels - XXXX
Season QBR: 51.1, 875 yards, 7-1 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 2 FL

6. Rattler - XXX
Season QBR: 50.1, 1450 yards, 8-4 TD-INT, 1 FL (benched for rookie)

7. McCarthy - XXX
Season QBR: 31.8, 444 yards, 4-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

20 hours ago, adam said:

The Pats were up by 10 entering the 4th? His GWD was against BUF. They were tied and he led the last scoring drive. That's why it was not a 4Q Comeback, because they were tied.

Ah.  I misread what I saw about the Falcon game. I thought  they were down by one in the fourth.  When in fact (ironically) Penix was actually the one trying to make the comeback for Atl.  

[adam]

Saw a thread on Twitter about EPA, so in looking for one thing, I ran across some interesting plays. These were the most impactful negative plays against Williams so far this season that were not an Interception or fumble lost:

Week 8 - BAL - Bears down 30-16 with 33 seconds left. 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to DJ Moore, -3.9 EPA

Week 6 - WSH - Bears up 13-7, 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to Odunze, -3.5 EPA

Week 4 - LVR - Fumble but recovered, 4th Quarter, 3rd and 5, -2.6 EPA

Week 2 - DET - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, rush for no gain, -3.5 EPA

Week 1 - MIN - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 3, incomplete to Moore, -3.5 EPA (2nd most important play of that game)

Week 1 - MIN - 1st Quarter, 3rd and 2, Odunze for -4 yards, -2.3 EPA (9th most important play of that game)
 

These were all top-10 most impactful plays for that week (for either team). A few things stand out, they treat a turnover on downs as bad as an INT, but only on the QB. If a receiver makes a reception but loses yards on the play, that is also on the QB. Garbage time stats still matter, which can pad stats but also hurt. In this case, Caleb lost 3.9 EPA on the last play of the game against BAL down 14 pts. The fumbled snap against LVR which lost 6 yards was -2.6 EPA.

These plays are considered so bad that it takes a monster play to offset them or several positive plays.

[Lucky Luciano]

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[ASHKUM BEAR]

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I cleared out all the cache, that seems to work so far.  

[jason]

On 11/7/2025 at 10:20 AM, adam said:

Saw a thread on Twitter about EPA, so in looking for one thing, I ran across some interesting plays. These were the most impactful negative plays against Williams so far this season that were not an Interception or fumble lost:

Week 8 - BAL - Bears down 30-16 with 33 seconds left. 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to DJ Moore, -3.9 EPA

Week 6 - WSH - Bears up 13-7, 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to Odunze, -3.5 EPA

Week 4 - LVR - Fumble but recovered, 4th Quarter, 3rd and 5, -2.6 EPA

Week 2 - DET - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, rush for no gain, -3.5 EPA

Week 1 - MIN - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 3, incomplete to Moore, -3.5 EPA (2nd most important play of that game)

Week 1 - MIN - 1st Quarter, 3rd and 2, Odunze for -4 yards, -2.3 EPA (9th most important play of that game)
 

These were all top-10 most impactful plays for that week (for either team). A few things stand out, they treat a turnover on downs as bad as an INT, but only on the QB. If a receiver makes a reception but loses yards on the play, that is also on the QB. Garbage time stats still matter, which can pad stats but also hurt. In this case, Caleb lost 3.9 EPA on the last play of the game against BAL down 14 pts. The fumbled snap against LVR which lost 6 yards was -2.6 EPA.

These plays are considered so bad that it takes a monster play to offset them or several positive plays.

The EPA formula is so bogus in my opinion. Some things can’t be properly quantified. 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, jason said:

The EPA formula is so bogus in my opinion. Some things can’t be properly quantified. 

It’s nothing more than a law of averages.  In that context it is a useful metric to compare teams once there are enough data points.  Or against historical averages. Nobody is watching sports because they want to see average plays.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, jason said:

The EPA formula is so bogus in my opinion. Some things can’t be properly quantified. 

It will be brutal for today's game with all the turnover on downs. EPA doesn't care about drops. I imagine it will be bad for Williams. I like it better for an overall team, and a split between the Pass and Rush Off and Def. 

[adam]

Williams still on pace for 4K, now on pace for 4,034 Passing Yards and 464 Rushing Yards. That is 4,500 Total Yards.  On pace for 25 Passing TDs, and 32 TDs overall, and only 8 INTs. 

Williams has now has gone his last 85 passing attempts without an INT.

[adam]

Week 11 - 

1. Maye - 55.2 - 270 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 13 Rush Yds. 283 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 72.9, 2,555 yards, 19-5 TD-INT, 35 Sacks, 2 TD (10g)
Season AVG: 255.5 YPG, 1.9 TD, 0.5 INT, 28.3 Rush YPG

2. Williams - 71.8 QBR - 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 63 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD. 283 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 57.8, 2,136 yards, 13-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 3 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. (9g)
Season AVG: 237.3 YPG, 1.4 TD, 0.4 INT, 27.3 Rush YPG

3. Nix - 53.4 QBR -  150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, -2 Rush Yds. 148 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 54.8, 2,126 yards, 18-8 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 3 Rush TD. (10g)
Season AVG: 212.6 YPG, 1.8 TD, 0.8 INT, 20.5 Rush YPG

4. Penix - 29.9 QBR - 177 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 1 FL. 176 Total Yards. Lost.
Season QBR: 53.5, 1807 yards, 9-3 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 1 TD, 2 FL

5. Daniels - Gumby Arm. DNP.
Season QBR: 51.2, 1184 yards, 8-2 TD-INT, 17 Sacks, 2 FL.

6. Rattler - DNP.
Season QBR: 49.4, 1586 yards, 8-5 TD-INT, 18 Sacks, 1 FL (benched for rookie).

7. McCarthy - 18.7 QBR - 248 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, 48 rush yds. 296 Total Yards. Lost.
Season QBR: 26.7, 692 yards, 5-6 TD-INT, 15 Sacks, 2 Rush TD.

 

Caleb is basically 2 yards per game under Kramer's pace for 16 games. He is still on pace to hit 4K. He should break 30 total TDs, but unless he has at least one monster game, he probably won't hit 30 Passing TDs this year.

[adam]

Hopefully the sack narrative for Williams is gone. Here are just the 2023 and 2024 QBs with a higher sack rate than Caleb Williams for their careers:

Levis - 11.04%
Maye - 9.96%
Howell - 9.60%
Young - 9.08%
Daniels - 8.99%

There are 29 QBs this season with a higher sack rate than Williams. Can the media finally move on from this narrative?

[adam]

There are 3 QBs tied for the league lead in 4th Quarter Comebacks and Game Winning Drives with 4. Mayfield, Nix, and Williams. Baker and Caleb have the same record at 6-3, yet Baker is an MVP candidate. So odd.

[adam]

Penix is like an afterthought for the 2024 draft class. Last year it was Daniels, Williams, Nix. This year it is Maye, Williams, Nix.

[Stinger226]

18 hours ago, adam said:

Williams still on pace for 4K, now on pace for 4,034 Passing Yards and 464 Rushing Yards. That is 4,500 Total Yards.  On pace for 25 Passing TDs, and 32 TDs overall, and only 8 INTs. 

Williams has now has gone his last 85 passing attempts without an INT.

He overall is getting better. He's been lucky on a few dropped INTs.

[adam]

This week Williams was the 3rd highest graded QB at 81.1. Only Goff and Stafford were higher.

Last week Williams was the highest graded QB at 90.8. 

He is now 9th in the NFL on the season at 77.0.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Mayfield, Nix, and Williams. Baker and Caleb have the same record at 6-3, yet Baker is an MVP candidate. So odd.

Gotta think this is more about 'body of work' not just what he's (Baker) doing this year.  If you consider how he stumbled out of the blocks (himself a 1st round overall pick) and since playing for the Bucs (some years later) he's gotten them to the playoffs the first two years he's been there and gotten a Pro Bowl nod for the first time, that weighs heavily I would think.