Year 2 QB QBR Tracker

[adam]

Week 13 - 

1. Maye - NYG @ NE
Season QBR: 73.0, 3,130 yards, 21-6 TD-INT, 37 Sacks, 2 TD (12g)

2. Williams - 49.4 QBR - 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 Sacks, 13 Rush Yds. 167 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 54.8, 2,722 yards, 17-5 TD-INT, 19 Sacks, 3 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. (12g)

3. Nix - 61.6 QBR - 321 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sack, 16 Rush Yds. 337 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 54.0, 2,724 yards, 19-9 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 3 Rush TD. (12g)

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Nine - DNP 
Season QBR: 24.7, 929 yards, 6-10 TD-INT, 20 Sacks, 2 Rush TD.

Penix - IR
Season QBR: 56.4, 1,882 yards, 9-3 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 1 TD.

Daniels - DNP
Season QBR: 51.2, 1,184 yards, 8-2 TD-INT, 17 Sacks, 2 FL.

Rattler - DNP
Season QBR: 50.4, 1,586 yards, 8-5 TD-INT, 18 Sacks, 1 FL.

[adam]

Maye 10-2
Nix 10-2
Williams 9-3

is pretty crazy for 2nd year QBs. 3 of the top 4 records in the NFL in Week 13.

[AZ54]

With weather like that the Eagles game was never going to be good for passing stats.  Nonetheless I still saw good things from Caleb that I haven’t seen much of before.  On a couple plays the Eagles blew up the screens and Caleb just threw the ball in the dirt.  On one pass play with a shallow crossing route he threw with nice touch to I think OZ who took it for a first down.  In the past he put too much velocity on the ball on some of these short routes.  He might have cost himself an INT with another soft toss on a screen but regardless I think he’ll learn from that and this is still a sign of growth.  

[adam]

6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

With weather like that the Eagles game was never going to be good for passing stats.  Nonetheless I still saw good things from Caleb that I haven’t seen much of before.  On a couple plays the Eagles blew up the screens and Caleb just threw the ball in the dirt.  On one pass play with a shallow crossing route he threw with nice touch to I think OZ who took it for a first down.  In the past he put too much velocity on the ball on some of these short routes.  He might have cost himself an INT with another soft toss on a screen but regardless I think he’ll learn from that and this is still a sign of growth.  

That is now 2 INTs on tipped balls at the line. That is a risk for any QB to be honest. I know it looked really bad, but normally you want the Edge defender engaged on the screen side so he can't do that.

The most promising thing is this offense is still a work in progress, and Caleb will get better. They are playing like a top 5 team right now, if Caleb gets better, and the defense gets healthy, what will they be then?

[Stinger226]

7 minutes ago, adam said:

That is now 2 INTs on tipped balls at the line. That is a risk for any QB to be honest. I know it looked really bad, but normally you want the Edge defender engaged on the screen side so he can't do that.

The most promising thing is this offense is still a work in progress, and Caleb will get better. They are playing like a top 5 team right now, if Caleb gets better, and the defense gets healthy, what will they be then?

The things Caleb needs to get better at is all fixable stuff.  Just imagine when he hits his stride , we will be scoring 40 points a game. 

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, adam said:

That is now 2 INTs on tipped balls at the line. That is a risk for any QB to be honest. I know it looked really bad, but normally you want the Edge defender engaged on the screen side so he can't do that.

The most promising thing is this offense is still a work in progress, and Caleb will get better. They are playing like a top 5 team right now, if Caleb gets better, and the defense gets healthy, what will they be then?

I felt the same way when I saw the replay.  Izzy has to engage earlier on the play instead of waiting but it’s also a case where you need the DE to get upfield a bit to create the space.   

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Saw a social media post that noted both Chicago and New England were the leaders of their respective divisions then asked ‘what is this 1985?’ 
 

And saw an incredible play by Bo Nix a little bit ago that ‘yes’ somehow resulted in a TD pass.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

39 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Saw a social media post that noted both Chicago and New England were the leaders of their respective divisions then asked ‘what is this 1985?’ 
 

And saw an incredible play by Bo Nix a little bit ago that ‘yes’ somehow resulted in a TD pass.  

Would you say he was down? Hard to tell there since the ball is out. Good to see the youth taking over Williams, Maye, and Nix. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Nope.  His knee hit about a millisecond after releasing the ball.  
 

Night has been one of highlights with this amazing catch by Burks.  His second career TD.  

[AZ54]

I watched most of the Broncos game curious about Bo Nix.  All I could think of was he is the second coming of Jacoby Brissett.  Almost everything he threw was an outlet or underneath route.  Those deep intermediate throws we see from Caleb each week over LBs and between safeties non existent.  Moving Safeties with his eyes …non existent.  When he did get a little pressure his eyes came down very quickly.   I can’t see how the Broncos short passing game wins playoff games.  I think the best way to put it is that I expected to see some of the Sean Payton Drew Brees type of offense. That was old offense was nowhere to be found. 
 

I share the frustration with some of Caleb’s missed throws but IMO what he is doing on offense is much more advanced than what Nix is doing.  I'm confident Ben Johnson is pushing Caleb in the right direction. 

[adam]

7 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I watched most of the Broncos game curious about Bo Nix.  All I could think of was he is the second coming of Jacoby Brissett.  Almost everything he threw was an outlet or underneath route.  Those deep intermediate throws we see from Caleb each week over LBs and between safeties non existent.  Moving Safeties with his eyes …non existent.  When he did get a little pressure his eyes came down very quickly.   I can’t see how the Broncos short passing game wins playoff games.  I think the best way to put it is that I expected to see some of the Sean Payton Drew Brees type of offense. That was old offense was nowhere to be found. 
 

I share the frustration with some of Caleb’s missed throws but IMO what he is doing on offense is much more advanced than what Nix is doing.  I'm confident Ben Johnson is pushing Caleb in the right direction. 

87 Yards Rushing on 23 carries won't take you very far in the playoffs. Especially considering the weather. It is trending towards playoff games in NE and DEN, in January. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

19 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I watched most of the Broncos game curious about Bo Nix.  All I could think of was he is the second coming of Jacoby Brissett.  Almost everything he threw was an outlet or underneath route.  Those deep intermediate throws we see from Caleb each week over LBs and between safeties non existent.  Moving Safeties with his eyes …non existent.  When he did get a little pressure his eyes came down very quickly.   I can’t see how the Broncos short passing game wins playoff games.  I think the best way to put it is that I expected to see some of the Sean Payton Drew Brees type of offense. That was old offense was nowhere to be found. 
 

I share the frustration with some of Caleb’s missed throws but IMO what he is doing on offense is much more advanced than what Nix is doing.  I'm confident Ben Johnson is pushing Caleb in the right direction. 

Interestingly, he and Caleb’s stats are pretty close, if not nearly identical, up to this point—even in rushing yards. I couldn’t help but notice that in the last game against Philly, it appeared Johnson leaned more toward a West Coast offense while still utilizing outside/inside zone blocking for the run game. Both Swift and Monangai eclipsed 100 rushing yards, which I suspect is because Johnson recognizes that Williams isn’t yet ready to make “splash” plays and wants to continue developing his learning curve.

Williams’ passing looked much as you described: primarily short passes, with the occasional longer attempt when available (like the TD to Kmet late in the game). What you observed with Nix is largely what I saw in Williams as well; the difference, in my opinion, is that Nix simply looked more polished executing it.

 

[Mongo3451]

20 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I watched most of the Broncos game curious about Bo Nix.  All I could think of was he is the second coming of Jacoby Brissett.  Almost everything he threw was an outlet or underneath route.  Those deep intermediate throws we see from Caleb each week over LBs and between safeties non existent.  Moving Safeties with his eyes …non existent.

He's a Drew Brees clone.  Weak arm, good release, good accuracy, smart, and hard working.  He absolutely can not perform Caleb's greatest trait of driving balls in the deep middle.  Honestly, that separates Caleb from everyone in his class except Drake Maye.  Drew Brees made his bones throwing balls into the intermediate zones by placing a ball where his receiver could catch and run.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Interestingly, he and Caleb’s stats are pretty close, if not nearly identical, up to this point—even in rushing yards. I couldn’t help but notice that in the last game against Philly, it appeared Johnson leaned more toward a West Coast offense while still utilizing outside/inside zone blocking for the run game. Both Swift and Monangai eclipsed 100 rushing yards, which I suspect is because Johnson recognizes that Williams isn’t yet ready to make “splash” plays and wants to continue developing his learning curve.

Williams’ passing looked much as you described: primarily short passes, with the occasional longer attempt when available (like the TD to Kmet late in the game). What you observed with Nix is largely what I saw in Williams as well; the difference, in my opinion, is that Nix simply looked more polished executing it.

 

I've only seen 3 quarters of a Broncos game.  You give me season long stats which does not inform about the types of passes made. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2025/passing_advanced.htm

Caleb has 8.4 Intended Air Yd/Att,  Nix 7.6.   (FWIW last is Aaron Rodgers at 5.8)  

Caleb has faced 110 blitzes vs.  67 for Nix.   

The 2nd year QB who is leading the pack is Drake Maye and I think I'm going to go watch a little more of that game.  

 

[BearFan PHX]

A couple points:

Caleb, by the eye test, is not performing that well, or at least that consistently, and yet his numbers are right there with Nix etc. Imagine how his numbers will look when he's more polished.

Also, Johnson doesnt have a lot of outlet routes. Caleb isnt asked to dink and dunk - this is an aggressive offense that Caleb is learning. We see a lot more 15 and 20 yard routes across the middle, than swing passes to an outlet RB for example.

I think this is why Caleb's numbers are already so good (other than completion percentage) even as he is still learning and growing.

I can see where we are going, and it's gonna be like the Lions were last year.

Add a pass rush to this, and we are going to be tough next year! And you know what? We're tough right now too!

[Pixote]

I'm a huge Caleb Williams fan. However, there were two outstanding QBs drafted in 2024. D. Maye is kicking ass this year. He is amazingly accurate, constantly hitting over 70% (tonight he was  24/31 for 282 yds (77.4%) with two TDs—a 126 Rating.

Until Caleb becomes more accurate, teams will focus on our RBs and challenge Caleb to beat them. I hope he lights them up, but these stats from an SI.com article are concerning. We all know he needs to improve his accuracy, but I didn't realize to what extent.

Quote

Though he did through a dagger touchdown pass against the Eagles, Caleb Williams has continued to struggle with consistency throwing the ball. His 58.1% completion rate ranks 40th in the league (>117 dropbacks), which would mark the lowest completion percentage for a quarterback leading his team to the playoffs since Andrew Luck in 2012.

While it’s reasonable to point out some of the Bears’ issues with drops, one must also point out that Williams also ranks 32nd among NFL QBs in on-target throw percentage, according to Pro Football Reference. 

Ben Johnson gives brutally honest take on Caleb Williams, Bears' passing game

It's an interesting article. BJ accepts some responsibility and has identified issues with everyone on offense that can be corrected to help Caleb improve his accuracy. In other words, it isn't all Caleb's fault.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 hours ago, Pixote said:

However, there were two outstanding QBs drafted in 2024.

I'd beg to differ that you could add Nix in there.  Sure he doesn't have the arm strength that Williams might have but he did manage to QB a team (as a rookie) to the playoffs last year and is on the verge of doing that again.  Heck the books aren't closed on the other contenders of the class.  If Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold can show former 1st round talent resurgence, anyone can.  Besides that, I feel as though most of us agree that in order to get a true measure on a player we need at least 5 years to assess their true ability (probably why rookie contracts are generally that long).  

 

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Caleb, by the eye test, is not performing that well, or at least that consistently, and yet his numbers are right there with Nix etc. Imagine how his numbers will look when he's more polished.

Would agree wholeheartedly.  If the team manages to make the playoffs because of him, I would be willing to rescind more of my doubts. I'd even agree that he's one of the top three in his QB class.

There's no denying that Maye is due his recognition; especially with talk of him being an MVP candidate.  From the numbers alone, he's performing especially well.  So too (IMHO) is Nix but for different things.  So what if he doesn't have the arm strength to launch a ball 70 yards?  (Although he did have the record for the longest pass by air last season).   Neither did Brees or Manning and they both had HOF careers.  The type of offense Williams commanded last week (WCO) was identical (or very similar) to the one that Nix has been in now for almost two seasons.  

At the end of the day I'm glad we got at least one of the top three QBs and what appears to be a viable HC leading him.