Week 11 Official Game Thread - CHI @ MIN, Nov 16th, 12PM CST, FOX, CHI +2.5

[adam]

The Bears come in as 2.5 dogs to MIN in MIN. 

It seems that some teams have figured out the MIN defense. They have allowed 27, 24, 37, and 28 in the last 4 games, and are 1-3 in those 4. 

MIN has scored 19, 27, 10, 22, 21, and 21 in the last 6 games. McCarthy does not look NFL-ready, he threw 2 INTs and now has 6 on the season in 4 games. 

Unfortunately, I feel like this is going to be another nail biter, I am thinking Bears 27-24. 

[BearFan PHX]

7-3 would be fantastic.

And we are going to start being challenged most of the next weeks, and thats good - win or lose we need that challenge to see where we are, and hone that blade for next year.

[AZ54]

This time around we've got the running game that we didn't have in week 1.  It will help a lot when Minn presses the LOS.  

[Bears4Ever_34]

Yeah, I wish I felt better about this game than I do. McCarthy isn't an NFL starter, but I don't have confidence in this defense to make him look terrible.

As long as Ben Johnson continues to use Swift more than Monangai, I'm not as confident in this run game against the Vikings. Swift just doesn't have the physical presence that Monangai does running down hill. He gives them some extra juice, and picks up those hidden yards that Swift generally does not do. If Johnson continues with the same script next week, I think that's going to be a big mistake, along with keeping Burden off the field. I hope he's smart enough to recognize this.

[CrackerDog]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

7-3 would be fantastic.

And we are going to start being challenged most of the next weeks, and thats good - win or lose we need that challenge to see where we are, and hone that blade for next year.

I agree 100%.  As good as 6-3 feels and the fact that Caleb has been the catalyst, we’ve beaten some lousy teams.  With the way the D and ST are playing it wouldn’t surprise me if we go 0-4 over the next four weeks.  If we go 2-2 over those games the playoffs are within reach.  

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, CrackerDog said:

I agree 100%.  As good as 6-3 feels and the fact that Caleb has been the catalyst, we’ve beaten some lousy teams.  With the way the D and ST are playing it wouldn’t surprise me if we go 0-4 over the next four weeks.  If we go 2-2 over those games the playoffs are within reach.  

for sure, playoffs or no, we need a pass rush, and we dont have one. this is not a complete team yet, but we do have some young players, and theyre starting to get it.

I especially liked reports of Ben Johnson telling Poles NOT to trade picks for players at the deadline. Johnson has some affection for the young guys he hasnt even drafted yet that he knows they will coach up. That's the right way to think it. Im so happy to hear it.

[jason]

3 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

As long as Ben Johnson continues to use Swift more than Monangai, I'm not as confident in this run game against the Vikings. Swift just doesn't have the physical presence that Monangai does running down hill. He gives them some extra juice, and picks up those hidden yards that Swift generally does not do. If Johnson continues with the same script next week, I think that's going to be a big mistake, along with keeping Burden off the field. I hope he's smart enough to recognize this.

Agree on Swift v Monangai. Swift seems pedestrian at times, and doesn’t hit the expected hole immediately, costing him yards. Monangai sees it, hits it, drives hard, and regularly picks up extra yards after contact.

[Stinger226]

Not sure why we didnt pound the ball at the beginning of the Giants game but we have to in this game. People keep praising the Flores defense but as someone laid out, it isnt good this year. They have given up over 150 yards rushing twice in the last 3 games. We should have won the first Viking game when we didnt play well. The refs helped us lose that one. Of course the game will go down to the end of the game like so many have this year. Caleb is 4-1 in one score games. I will ride the storm with him. Dart was a rookie and played well against us so I dont see having JJ Mac being a problem for them. I can see us getting some ints. against the Vikings and go with that. I have noticed that our defense is a lot weaker when TJ Edwards doesnt play. He wont be in this game either.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Not sure why we didnt pound the ball at the beginning of the Giants game but we have to in this game. People keep praising the Flores defense but as someone laid out, it isnt good this year. They have given up over 150 yards rushing twice in the last 3 games. We should have won the first Viking game when we didnt play well. The refs helped us lose that one. Of course the game will go down to the end of the game like so many have this year. Caleb is 4-1 in one score games. I will ride the storm with him. Dart was a rookie and played well against us so I dont see having JJ Mac being a problem for them. I can see us getting some ints. against the Vikings and go with that. I have noticed that our defense is a lot weaker when TJ Edwards doesnt play. He wont be in this game either.

MIN is interesting, as the season is wearing on, they are slowly getting worse across the board. Now 12th in Total Defense, and 18th in Scoring Defense. 22nd against the Run, and 9th against the Pass. 

The Bears offense is now 3rd in Total Offense, 2nd in Rushing, 11th in Passing, 7th in Scoring. 

MIN on offense is 21st in scoring, 24th in Total Offense, 22nd in Passing, 24th in Rushing. The problem for the Bears is Special Teams and Defense. Defense is 28th in scoring, 27th in Total Defense, 26th against the Pass, 24th against the Run.

So based on the congunkulator, the most logical outcome is Bears 23-20. Last week it projected an 8 pt win, and if Wright catches that INT, it is a 7-pt win, so I am rolling with it.

Bears OFF +0.03 x Vikes DEF -0.07 / -0.04 x 62.3 plays= (-2.49 DIFF)   
26.6 Bears O x 23.7 Vikes D + DIFF = 22.66 (23 pts)

Vikes OFF -0.14 x Bears DEF -0.03 / -0.085 x 58.5 plays= (-4.97 DIFF)    
22.3 Vikes O x 27.4 Bears D + DIFF = 19.88 (20 pts)
 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Was watching a recap on You Tube and a few questions came up.  
 

1). Moore injured his shoulder in yesterday’s game . This after injuring his groin a few games back and another before that?  Should it be time to let him rest maybe a game or two (similar to what they did with Swift)?  Let Burden come in as #3 and once Moore is nearer 100, kick Zaccheus to #4 or lower.  
 

2). With the Bears defensive backfield struggling and once Gordon returns, would it be good to have him play NB and push CJ to one of the corner spots (maybe where Wright is)?  The podcast suggested Gordon go to corner but I don’t know that he’s got any experience there.  Pretty sure Gardner has.  🤷🏻‍♂️