🏈 Week 13 Official Black Friday Game Thread 🏈 CHI@PHI, Nov 28th, 2PM CST, AMZ, CHI +6.5

[adam]

I never would've thought that the Bears had a chance to be in a tie for the NFC with a win in this game, but here we are.

I don't think they will win, probably a 7-10 pt loss, but I don't think they will get blown out. My first thought is something like 27-20 or 27-17, but if they get some players back from injury, the defense may look a lot different, and it will need to be against Barkley and PHI's offense.

PHI has lost to NYG, and one score wins against MIN, GB, and DET in the last 6 weeks, so anything is possible. 

It will probably come down to turnovers and penalties. Since it is in PHI, they will have the edge with the officials for sure.

 

[adam]

OK then, PHI lost to DAL. Bears and Eagles are both 8-3 heading into this game. I did not have that on the bingo card. So the outcome of the TB @ LAR game tonight will determine whether the Black Friday game is for the Conference Lead or 2nd in the Conference. If LAR wins, they will be the #1 Seed at 9-2 heading into next weekend. If they lose, the winner of the CHI @ PHI game on Friday will be 9-3, in sole possession of the #1 Seed until LAR plays on Sunday (against CAR). 

PHI has not looked good lately. Now 4-3 in their last 7 after starting 4-0. The Bears are 8-1 in their last 9, starting 0-2. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 minutes ago, adam said:

OK then, PHI lost to DAL

Dallas had two golden opportunities late in the game with a defensive turnover followed up shortly with a special teams TO near 10 yard line. Both times Dallas was unable to convert.  Think that says more about Dallas offense (not so good) as it does the Eagles’ D.  

Vic Fangio is still their D - coordinator so you know he’ll exploit whatever weakness there is on the Bears offense.  I agree I don’t see a win but not a blow out by any means. 🤞

[Mongo3451]

I'll apologize in advance, but I believe we're gonna take an ass whooping Friday.  Philly is gonna be pissed all week.

[Bears4Ever_34]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'll apologize in advance, but I believe we're gonna take an ass whooping Friday.  Philly is gonna be pissed all week.

Probably, but I think the short week could be more beneficial to the Bears. The drama in Philly is always loud. They won't have a lot of time to do much prep work and learn from their mistakes this week. The Bears are playing with house money, and could end up getting Gordon and Johnson back for this game. 

I do really worry about Barkley against these LB'ers, though. Really, really bad matchup there despite his struggles up to this point.

[Mongo3451]

15 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I do really worry about Barkley against these LB'ers, though. Really, really bad matchup there despite his struggles up to this point.

Barkley and a wake up game is enough.  If we win, I've totally underestimated our talent.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Barkley and a wake up game is enough.  If we win, I've totally underestimated our talent.

Barkley vs these LBs will be dangerous. This will be a huge challenge for Caleb and offense too. I’m expecting a tough slog and don’t think they have enough - but hoping bears play their best game of the seasons and pull it out!!! 

[Stinger226]

It is easy to look at Philly and say we are going to get our butts kicked but that vaulted Eagles defense gave up almost 500 yards of offense and only had one sack. Both Ss and one CB got hurt in the game and on a short week are in doubt for the  game. A big key will be if any of our D will be back for this game. JJ and Gordon have a good chance of coming back. We still lead the league in TOs and they will come into play. Barkley isnt the same guy he was last year. He had 345 carries last year and the bounce year always suffers because of that. We have more sacks than Eagles do. They have given up over 20 points 8 times this season. 

Hurts will be a problem because of the pass/run flexibility  but the scary defense isnt so scary anymore. We have a chance and if Caleb shows some magic, maybe we win. 

[adam]

The Congunkulator says PHI 23 - CHI 20 based on EPA/P, # of plays, and PPG. With it being in PHI, 3 more pts go their way, and with the officials, probably another 3-4, which makes it more like a 9-10 pt game. This is all assuming no Jaylon or Gordon as right now the DET blowout loss accounts for a lot of the bad averages. 

If you just use the last 9 games for both teams, the Bears should be favored by 3. 

[adam]

9 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Barkley vs these LBs will be dangerous. This will be a huge challenge for Caleb and offense too. I’m expecting a tough slog and don’t think they have enough - but hoping bears play their best game of the seasons and pull it out!!! 

 

12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Barkley and a wake up game is enough.  If we win, I've totally underestimated our talent.

Yeah something is going on in PHI.  I have not paid attention enough. Barkley has only 3 games with a YPC over 4.0, 4.8 against the Giants (12 carries), 5.0 against DEN (only 6 carries), and his best game of the year 10.7 against the Giants (had 150 and a 65-yarder). However, he has had 7 games with a YPC of 3.3 or less. In 6 of those he had 18+ carries. On the season he is averaging 3.7 YPC, but against any team but the Giants, it drops to 2.99 per carry, wild.