Week 15 Official Game Thread - CLE @ CHI, 1200 SUN 12/14, FOX, Bears -7.5, O/U 40.5

[Stinger226]

We got to 10 wins, won 31-3 and left some points on the field. I'm good. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Bounce back game from the defense today. Offense looked good for about a quarter. They just struggle to put a complete game together for 60 minutes.

A stronger offensive showing would have given me more confidence going into this final stretch, but they really needed this win. Now they need to beat GB and win at least one more in the final two to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Not having a Safety over the top against Bond is a choice. How many times will they have to do that before DA adjusts? 2 massive explosives negates a ton of good play.

I would say he completely read Sanders correctly coming away with 3 INTs in the game and other than a couple big plays kept their offense stifled for almost the entire game.  

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I would say he completely read Sanders correctly coming away with 3 INTs in the game and other than a couple big plays kept their offense stifled for almost the entire game.  

yes, and they only scored 3 points.

[adam]

15 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I would say he completely read Sanders correctly coming away with 3 INTs in the game and other than a couple big plays kept their offense stifled for almost the entire game.  

Outside of those 2x 40-yard receptions, the defense was playing great. I was just saying if that is all they can do, you have to take that away with at least one Safety over the top. It looked like he adjusted after the 2nd one, which was good to see,

[adam]

Bears win, Lions lose, Packers lose. Good day to be a Bears fan. 

Bears 10-4
Packers 9-4-1
Lions 8-6

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Great game to be at. The Bears came out hot and it ignited the crowd. Icing on top seeing our North rivals go down.  

The momentum Saturday is ours and we can take this division and never give it back.  Caleb, Monongai, Odunze, Burden, Loveland is a core of young guys getting their first taste of blood and they wont forget. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

9 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Hell yeah. Caleb's been on point the last two drives. Run game's working, guys are getting open, and Caleb's hitting them. 

Now we need to bury these guys. Don't let this game be close.

He was very accurate today in tough conditions against an elite defense. If not for a few drops he has an even better game. Also had some nice connections to DJ (albeit I don’t want him making that one throw that worked out very often - but what a dot and catch). 
 

Luther, Kmet each had a drop on very accurate balls and than Monagai had 2 on screen plays - one of which looked like it would have been a massive play. 
 

One thing Caleb was doing a bit too much of was dropping too far out of the pocket due to pressure. Bad habit that I hadn’t seen a lot of but it could have been with lead he was trying not to make a mistake. Overall thought he played solid. Defense was stout - pass rush still not good enough. 

[Stinger226]

I've been sleeping and waking up to comments. Odds of us ever having a perfect game is small but I'll take an not perfect win of 31-3 every day. A lot of people speak of being 10-4 , we haven't played a lot of good teams. 

I don't care. What I see week to week is we are capable of playing well against anyone. I hope we go 3-0 to finish the season but 1-2 or 2-1 would be okay as long as we beat the Packers and make the playoffs. 

We are starting to get healthy overall as a team as other people lose people. Poles found Wright, G-Johnson, D Jones, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka even played well today. 

The combo of BJ and Poles is starting to look Super Bowlish. 

[Stinger226]

This doesn't get old 

https://youtube.com/shorts/7BPlYyfiASE?si=T0_QDZRhVnj9YtwX

[adam]

7 of the top 8 PFF Graded Defensive players were recent FA/trade acquisitions by Poles, and the top 3 were the most recent 3, all in season.

1. Jackson - 93.5
2. Tryon-Shoyinka 90.4
3. Gardner-Johnson 80.3
4. Williams 77.7
5. Edwards 74.6
6. Wright 73.3
8. Jarrett 66.6

[AZ54]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I've been sleeping and waking up to comments. Odds of us ever having a perfect game is small but I'll take an not perfect win of 31-3 every day. A lot of people speak of being 10-4 , we haven't played a lot of good teams. 

I don't care. What I see week to week is we are capable of playing well against anyone. I hope we go 3-0 to finish the season but 1-2 or 2-1 would be okay as long as we beat the Packers and make the playoffs. 

We are starting to get healthy overall as a team as other people lose people. Poles found Wright, G-Johnson, D Jones, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka even played well today. 

The combo of BJ and Poles is starting to look Super Bowlish. 

We haven’t played a lot of good teams?   Minn Detroit GB Philly Baltimore Wash Pitt.     We just put up 31 against the third best defense in the NFL.  

[adam]

9 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

We haven’t played a lot of good teams?   Minn Detroit GB Philly Baltimore Wash Pitt.     We just put up 31 against the third best defense in the NFL.  

The 2 games that stand out that seem to have swayed public perception (regardless of outcome) was the LVR game where they needed a blocked FG to win it, and then the Saints game where Caleb only had 15 completion, which is still a season low.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

The 2 games that stand out that seem to have swayed public perception (regardless of outcome) was the LVR game where they needed a blocked FG to win it, and then the Saints game where Caleb only had 15 completion, which is still a season low.

Really, it was more than just that. There was also the game against Washington, where they needed a last-second field goal by Moody to escape with a win, and the opening-week loss to a still-struggling Vikings team, 27–24.

If you look at the combined record of the teams the Bears faced prior to the win against the Eagles—what I’d consider the second renaissance of the season (with the first coming the week after the bye)—those opponents were a combined 50–88. That figure even includes the 8–6 Lions, who beat us convincingly, 52–21.

I'll be the first to say that I'm pretty happy (surprised) with how things are shaping up esp after that win against Philly. I'll say it again, IF they can win against GB this time around I'll really be impressed.  

[BearFan PHX]

And all of this without a pass rush.

Next year we will spend our assets on the D line, and then i imagine this team will be a true contender.

And that's not to say that they cant cobble something together this year. Im not putting a ceiling on how far these guys can go, but we will be underdogs in an NFC Championship game for example.

But next year, with a pass rush, we will be favorites in a lot of games.

Caleb is growing weekly into a beast. The future is bright.

[adam]

25 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Really, it was more than just that. There was also the game against Washington, where they needed a last-second field goal by Moody to escape with a win, and the opening-week loss to a still-struggling Vikings team, 27–24.

If you look at the combined record of the teams the Bears faced prior to the win against the Eagles—what I’d consider the second renaissance of the season (with the first coming the week after the bye)—those opponents were a combined 50–88. That figure even includes the 8–6 Lions, who beat us convincingly, 52–21.

I'll be the first to say that I'm pretty happy (surprised) with how things are shaping up esp after that win against Philly. I'll say it again, IF they can win against GB this time around I'll really be impressed.  

With all of that, the Bears SOS is .400, but NE's SOS is .371, and DEN's is .393, both lower than the Bears but you don't hear much at all about who those teams have played. Hell, both Maye and Nix are getting MVP consideration in the weaker conference while the Bears are arguably in the toughest division in football. Every division in the NFL has at least one team with 4 wins or less, and the NFC North's "worst" team has 6 wins.

GB is a "true" Super Bowl contender, but they lost to the Browns and Panthers, tied the Cowboys, and barely beat the Giants and Cardinals, but somehow the Bears are not because they lost to the Lions, Ravens, Vikings, and Packers.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

With all of that, the Bears SOS is .400, but NE's SOS is .371, and DEN's is .393, both lower than the Bears but you don't hear much at all about who those teams have played. Hell, both Maye and Nix are getting MVP consideration in the weaker conference while the Bears are arguably in the toughest division in football. Every division in the NFL has at least one team with 4 wins or less, and the NFC North's "worst" team has 6 wins

Not to belabor a point but was the SOS determined before or after the season?  Reason I ask is whooda thought KC would be out of playoff contention at this point and NE would be in contention for the NFC East title this soon after Brady retired and current MVP holder Josh Allen was supposed to be peaking?  
 

Nix is on the edge of taking his team to the playoffs - again (in only his second year) and Maye is playing out of his mind good.  (nod to Mongo for being right about this guy).  

[BearFan PHX]

9 hours ago, adam said:

With all of that, the Bears SOS is .400, but NE's SOS is .371, and DEN's is .393, both lower than the Bears but you don't hear much at all about who those teams have played. Hell, both Maye and Nix are getting MVP consideration in the weaker conference while the Bears are arguably in the toughest division in football. Every division in the NFL has at least one team with 4 wins or less, and the NFC North's "worst" team has 6 wins.

GB is a "true" Super Bowl contender, but they lost to the Browns and Panthers, tied the Cowboys, and barely beat the Giants and Cardinals, but somehow the Bears are not because they lost to the Lions, Ravens, Vikings, and Packers.

 

not to mention half our losses were in the first 2 weeks of a new head coach and Caleb's development just beginning. It doesnt portend who we are now.

I think the main thing is that we dont have a pass rush. That will probably limit how far we go this year, but we have a heck of a team otherwise, and will for several years with these core guys. I expect we will get a pass rush this offseason, and then watch out.

But I wont say the Bears cant go all the way this year. They do find ways to win, even with this incomplete roster.

[adam]

12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Not to belabor a point but was the SOS determined before or after the season?  Reason I ask is whooda thought KC would be out of playoff contention at this point and NE would be in contention for the NFC East title this soon after Brady retired and current MVP holder Josh Allen was supposed to be peaking?  
 

Nix is on the edge of taking his team to the playoffs - again (in only his second year) and Maye is playing out of his mind good.  (nod to Mongo for being right about this guy).  

SOS is dynamic and changes every week.

I am not too high on SOS, but just making the point that for some reason it only applies to the Bears. To me, after your actual record, I think the biggest discriminator are your losses. Great teams don't lose to terrible teams. So if you have a low SOS AND you lost to a bad team, then that is a red flag for me. NE lost to LVR, which is a red flag. That sort of supports the notion that the only reason they have a good record is they have played a bunch of inferior teams.

Take all the teams with 10+ wins, then combine their best win and their worst loss (which is sort of their ceiling and floor) and you get this (with differential):

LAR: 11-3 + 7-7 = 18-10 (+/- 4)
SF: 11-3 + 7-7 = 18-10 (+/- 4)
DEN: 9-4-1 + 8-6 = 17-10-1 (+/- 1.5)
SEA: 10-4 + 7-7 = 17-11 (+/- 3)
BUF: 11-3 + 5-9 = 16-12 (+/- 6)
CHI: 9-5 + 6-8 = 15-13 (+/- 3)
JAX: 10-4 + 4-10 = 14-14 (+/- 6)
LAC: 12-2 + 2-12 = 14-14 (+/- 10)
NE:  10-4 + 2-12 = 12-16 (+/- 8 )

The top 3 teams are LAR, SF, and DEN; the most consistent teams have been DEN, SEA, and CHI. The worst team has been NE, and the most volatile team has been LAC. LAC beat DEN but lost to NYG (and WAS).

If you also include GB, their signature win was actually against the Bears, lol, 10-4, but lost to CLE at 3-11, so they are a 13-15 team with a (+/- of 7).

DET's signature win was against the Bears as well, so they are a 16-12 team with a 4 diff. Technically a better team than GB but playing a first place schedule. 

PHI is a 13-15 team with a 9 diff. They are very similar to LAC, very volatile. TB 15-13/7 and PIT 15-13/7 are the only other two, comparable to JAX.

If you had to put them in tiers, probably something like this:

Tier 1: LAR, SF, DEN, SEA

Tier 2: BUF, CHI, DET

Tier 3: JAX, TB, PIT

Tier 4: LAC, PHI

Tier 5: GB, NE

 

BAL is a 14-14/6 team, so they would be comparable to JAX, and their signature win, against the Bears. CAR is 14-14/8 somehow beating the Rams but losing to the Cardinals and Saints twice, lol. They would be in Tier 4 with LAC and PHI. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

SOS is dynamic and changes every week.

"Any given Sunday" holds true.  

Other factors that can skew that whole theory are how injuries figure in.  Assume KC was still in the running for a postseason berth and the injury to Mahomes still occurred, they'd more than likely lose a lot of momentum in the last few weeks and who knows, be right back where they are now or 1 and done in the playoffs.  

A lot of the times it simply matters whose peaking at the right time.  A few weeks ago I thought Dallas was one of those teams but then they lost to Minny.  I wanna think Chicago is peaking now at the right time and with a win over GB this weekend it would better convince me they are ready to make a run this year into the postseason.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

"Any given Sunday" holds true.  

Other factors that can skew that whole theory are how injuries figure in.  Assume KC was still in the running for a postseason berth and the injury to Mahomes still occurred, they'd more than likely lose a lot of momentum in the last few weeks and who knows, be right back where they are now or 1 and done in the playoffs.  

A lot of the times it simply matters whose peaking at the right time.  A few weeks ago I thought Dallas was one of those teams but then they lost to Minny.  I wanna think Chicago is peaking now at the right time and with a win over GB this weekend it would better convince me they are ready to make a run this year into the postseason.  

If the Bears beat GB, there is a good chance they are resting starters in Week 18 against DET (assuming LAR wins on THU). 

To me it is hard to believe that the Bears are in this position with 3 weeks to go, they basically control their own destiny and just have to finish with a Division record of 3-3 to win the division. 

[AZ54]

Not heard:   I wish the Bears had drafted Quinshon Judkins in the 2nd Rd.  In fact he looked rather pedestrian against our Bears.  .  

[adam]

12 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Not heard:   I wish the Bears had drafted Quinshon Judkins in the 2nd Rd.  In fact he looked rather pedestrian against our Bears.  .  

Henderson was always the one they probably wanted, and he has looked really good.