Caleb progressions

[jason]

Not all stats tell the story intended, but this is interesting nonetheless.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I don’t think I even know how to understand this. Nor do I think it would be easy for whoever is calculating it to come up with it. Concept is good. 

[BearFan PHX]

There should be two versions of this chart - one when blitzed, or OL allows free runners, and the other when facing coverage.
Teams have been blitzing Caleb a lot, more than most QBs, so we need to punish them for that with hot reads, screens, draws, jet sweeps etc.

[AZ54]

I have no clue how to interpret this.  First receiver is a good thing ala Matthew Stanford or being a Checkdown king is a good thing ala Kirk Cousins.  Then you add in the myriad of variables like does your WR 1 suck or is he double covered forcing you to go elsewhere?   Is your OC any good or is he the idiot we had last year who often ran two or even three WR to the same area of the field?  Although that made it very easy to progress from 1 to 2 to 3    

[BearFan PHX]

17 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I have no clue how to interpret this.  First receiver is a good thing ala Matthew Stanford or being a Checkdown king is a good thing ala Kirk Cousins.  Then you add in the myriad of variables like does your WR 1 suck or is he double covered forcing you to go elsewhere?   Is your OC any good or is he the idiot we had last year who often ran two or even three WR to the same area of the field?  Although that made it very easy to progress from 1 to 2 to 3    

agree - I think all you can take from this is whether a QB is a one read or run QB, after that its too chaotic to really mean much.

I suppose the extreme opposite too - if a QB is routinely throwing ti evenly to 1st 2nd and 3rd reads that might mean something too about reading the field. But if that QB is under pressure, it might just be the scramble drill and not even distribution by design?

[adam]

Looks alot like Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, I will take it.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

Looks alot like Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, I will take it.

It is interesting - a lot of best qbs bunched in that range. Goff there too and Mahomes and Stafford not far away. 

[BearFan PHX]

The stats wont tell the story (again) but Caleb had a fantastic game this week. Everything looked crisp & decisive. And of course what he did at the end. He's becoming elite right before our eyes.

[Stinger226]

Caleb has two things going for him, he believes in himself and never gives up. 

[BearFan PHX]

and he is talented as hell, and the lightbulb is coming on for him as a pocket passer, just like we hoped. He wont need these heroics much longer. He's about to be a top QB. I think this was his breakout game. If you watch each play, he was magnificent. The offense sputtered, but Caleb was GREAT.

Oh and here are his recent records:

1) #1 lowest interceptions for a QB in their first 1,000 passes of all time (since the merger)

2) Second highest career TD to INT ratio of all time. Rodgers is #1, Caleb #2, Mahomes and Brady are in the top 5 too.

3) Ties Payton Manning for most 4th Qtr comebacks (20) under age 25

And he is still improving - the signs are there. He is on the path to being a top QB for a long time. And I believe he took a huge step tonight. Much calmer, better accuracy, timing was fantastic, good reads, and a total winner at the end.

Due to our D line being terrible we didnt have the ball much on offense, but that long early drive when we fumbled the trick play at the end? Go watch Caleb cook he was on fire, and so calm - it looked easy. And the end of the game too. A real winner and difference maker.

If you could trade Caleb for ANY QB in the league to roll with for the next 5 years - cap aside, just straight up - who would you take? Id stay with Caleb. Thats who he is. The signs were there from the start, and its all coming together now as Ben Johnson teaches him how to actually play the position.

[Stinger226]

Shady was giving Caleb shit last week and now this.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

If you could trade Caleb for ANY QB in the league to roll with for the next 5 years - cap aside, just straight up - who would you take? Id stay with Caleb. Thats who he is. The signs were there from the start, and its all coming together now as Ben Johnson teaches him how to actually play the position.

I’d still like to see more progression before I’m fully bought in. As Mongo mentioned in another thread, I agree that he needs to play more consistently from start to finish. If he’s always relying on late-game heroics, it’s only a matter of time before opposing defenses figure out how to shut that down.

If, after another season (or maybe two), he’s making even better decisions, then I’m a buyer.  To be fair, he has shown significant improvement this year. I just hope he avoids a CJ Stroud–type regression next season and instead continues with Bo Nix–level consistency or a Bryce Young–style resurgence moving forward.

In the time being I’m enjoying the heck outta this ride.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’d still like to see more progression before I’m fully bought in. As Mongo mentioned in another thread, I agree that he needs to play more consistently from start to finish. If he’s always relying on late-game heroics, it’s only a matter of time before opposing defenses figure out how to shut that down.

If, after another season (or maybe two), he’s making even better decisions, then I’m a buyer.  To be fair, he has shown significant improvement this year. I just hope he avoids a CJ Stroud–type regression next season and instead continues with Bo Nix–level consistency or a Bryce Young–style resurgence moving forward.

In the time being I’m enjoying the heck outta this ride.  

Stroud got worse year 1 to year 2. Daniel’s did the same. Caleb is better year 1 to year 2 under pretty much every stat. TDS, yards per game, sack rate, comebacks, yards per attempt, qbr. Only spot somewhat flat is completion percentage but even than he’s throwing ball down field a ton. 
 

His interception rate remains elite as well - which quite frankly it was in year 1 as well. 
 

Oh and year 1 in new system and first time in his career working behind center with new footwork. 
 

I think year 3 will be even better and more growth than we saw from year 1 to 2. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’d still like to see more progression before I’m fully bought in. As Mongo mentioned in another thread, I agree that he needs to play more consistently from start to finish. If he’s always relying on late-game heroics, it’s only a matter of time before opposing defenses figure out how to shut that down.

If, after another season (or maybe two), he’s making even better decisions, then I’m a buyer.  To be fair, he has shown significant improvement this year. I just hope he avoids a CJ Stroud–type regression next season and instead continues with Bo Nix–level consistency or a Bryce Young–style resurgence moving forward.

In the time being I’m enjoying the heck outta this ride.  

Even if you ignore the heroics at the end. Watch the drive where we eventually snapped the ball over Monangais head - Caleb was spectacular on that drive. The whole game he played with poise and rhythm.

Of course there are plays where he has to throw the ball away, where the defense wins. There is no QB that doesnt have that. But Caleb has superstar written all over him, and I think he got to a new level last night.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think year 3 will be even better and more growth than we saw from year 1 to 2. 

I took into consideration his year one under BJ as his first year - and comparing it to the others.  If he progresses from this year to next - fantastic.  
 

Of course that applies to BJ as well.  Last thing we need him to do is pull a Nagy on year two.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

26 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Even if you ignore the heroics at the end. Watch the drive where we eventually snapped the ball over Monangais head - Caleb was spectacular on that drive. The whole game he played with poise and rhythm

Yep I would say that first drive was in fact a thing of beauty.  Then there was a lot of bleh for the game until the second half.  Cairo was our offense for the first three scores then the rest of the team came alive late in the game.   
 

I won’t deny his superstar performances.  Just that I’d like to see it from start to finish.  My BP meds are only so effective.  

[BearFan PHX]

28 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Yep I would say that first drive was in fact a thing of beauty.  Then there was a lot of bleh for the game until the second half.  Cairo was our offense for the first three scores then the rest of the team came alive late in the game.   
 

I won’t deny his superstar performances.  Just that I’d like to see it from start to finish.  My BP meds are only so effective.  

THe way i see it, I feel like youre talking more about the offense. For example, if Caleb makes a good fast read, and delivers a catchable ball that's dropped, and we end up having to punt, thats the offense needing more consistency, but i give Caleb a + score for that play?

Now Im not saying Caleb is perfect, but if you watch the best QBs, they arent either. The last couple weeks especially it feels like the game is slowing down for Caleb and he is playing in rhythm, and to me, that means he is becoming elite. Doesnt mean he cant still work on things, of course he has to, but I see him executing the offense correctly, calmly, in time, and now with accuracy (which is new to see) so i think he took that next step last night.