Bearstalk

Several times during the Lovie years, we saw pointless wins that allowed the team to misleading hope, while simultaneously submarining any chance of stockpiling draft capital that helps build franchises. The team has hovered around .500 year after year since 2000. Since 2000, believe it or not, the team has an average of 7.9 wins per season. Of the 22 seasons, 12 have been +/- 2 wins of .500. That's treading water; it's not building a franchise. For 30+ years I have heard about how the meaningless wins help in some way, whether it be cohesion, camaraderie, or confidence. But for the Bears, that doesn't appear to hold true. That's why I think this year is so perfect. …

With Fields injury up in the air, the Bears may have to start Siemian against a top 5 defense in the Jets. The Jets could put a QB off the street and score 20 against the Bears. I doubt the Bears muster more than a FG if Siemian starts, and probably no more than 17 if Fields does. The line is -4.5 right now but that will shoot up if Fields doesn't play. A good bet for Jets + the under. I am saying 30-3 if Siemian starts, 27-17 if Fields starts.

So last night Hurts had 153 passing yards and 157 rushing yards, with 2 passing TDs, and the national media is now saying he is in the running with Mahomes for MVP. What is wild to me is using Fields last 6 games, Fields is averaging over 160 passing yards a game, 1.7 passing TDs, 107 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. In Hurts last 6 games, he is averaging 200 passing yards and 55 rushing yards a game and 2.5 total TDs. So 255 total yards and 2.5 total TDs to Fields 267 total yards and 2.7 total TDs. So Fields is playing better than an MVP candidate over the last 6 weeks. Oh by the way, Philly has a top 5 Offensive Line and AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goe…

I am shocked the line is only GB -1.5. They must be assuming Fields will play. We don't even know if Rodgers or Love will start. It will be interesting to see the injury report for both teams on Wednesday. I assume Fields is going to be another game time decision, but GB may know more about Rodgers my mid-week. So for right now, if Fields starts, I am going Bears 23-20 and if Siemian starts, Packers 27-17.

I went into this game expecting a total Mel Tuckeresque coverage disaster. Instead they all seemed to know their job. We have to credit Houston-Carson and Jaylon Johnson for keeping the young guys lined up properly during the game. Plus the coaches deserve a ton of credit getting them ready. It's one game so I'm not trying to go overboard but it certainly feels like this rookie group of DBs is giving us a solid depth/foundation for the future. We already know what we have in Brisker and Gordon has been coming along well lately. Now today we see Jaylon Jones and Josh Blackwell play well along with Elijah Hicks at safety. Earlier in the season Jaylon J…

The Bears had a nice mini-bye and 1st game back, so let's see how they do after their real bye. Herbert may be back, Brisker and Gordon should be. The O-Line may be more solidified with Leatherwood at RT. This will be the first time to really put some plays in for Claypool as the WR1. The two games out of the bye will be good tests for the Bears, and we will get to see Hurts and Allen at Soldier Field. BUF is #1 in DVOA and PHI is #3. DAL is #2, so these games will probably end up like the DAL game. I don't care if they lose at this point, but it would be nice to have competitive games with at least a chance to win late. It would be really cool if F…

We will be adding in the draft and FAgency. What moves does Poles make that will give us a winning season next yr. We cant fill every spot so we figure 9 new starters. Lets say we get the 2nd pick, 56, 65, and 101. These are picks that probably will give us starters from day one. Anything in the rest of the draft will just be gravy if they end up starting. With 135 mil, in cap space, I think he makes 2 big signings, and 3 midland signings. For sake of argument we resign Monty to a 3 yr 19mil deal. I am using OTCs valuation numbers + That have Monty at 5 mil value We resign Morrow at 3/24, OTC valuation at 8 mil We bring back Armon Watts, Josh B…

We get to see one of the MVP favorites in Hurts, who looks a lot like Fields in terms of performance. Philly just put up 48, 35, and 40 against NYG, TEN, and GB, so this does not bode well for our defense. I figure they will try to slow them down and make them run while the Bears run 60% of the time. Depending on player health, I figure this will be a closer game than expected, but the Bears still lose by 10. I am figuring 30-20 right now.

The playoffs are upon us. Congrats to all the teams that made it to the 2nd season. The bracket is set, 1 and 2 are on byes, 4 plays 5, 3 plays 6. 1 - Fields of Dreams 4 - PapaBear --------------------- 5 - The Mad Lithuanians---------- 3 - Nips&Tips--------------------- 6 - SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS!--- 2 - Nopper In other news, I need to know how we want to address absent managers. We had a manager not update their lineup basically all season, including thru byes and IR, which gave some other teams some free wins and impacted the playoff positions. Since this is a pay league, I want to ensure everything is as fair as possible. Any suggestions …

I'm worried about winning, Even with our depleted roster, you can feel this team getting stronger. Pretty soon those bad 4th quarter play calls aren't going to be enough to hold back this team and keep them from beating someone. Probably the Lions and/or the Vikings. But with Fields being such a hero, cant you see some kind of miracle against the Eagles or the Bills? I am thrilled at the growth and cant wait to see what Fields and this staff can do with a proper roster. But I want that #2 pick. It means so much more than the #5 in terms of getting Jalen Carter, or some really sweet bundle of first round picks, the kind we used to be on the giving side of. …

Our greatest conversation for a long time has been how do we get better. We've been having it for 15 years and running. I'd like to take a slightly different approach and ask, what is best for 2024? We already know what the needs are, but where should the sense of urgency be applied for 2024? The reason I'm choosing this year is because I don't think we'll be ready next year. So for this off-season, I'm identifying our top draft need as WR. Is it the weakest unit on the team? No, but it's close. WR's generally take time to transition to the NFL unless they have elite traits, so drafting one now with those traits will be nasty in year two. There is also go…

The Bears really got the shaft in terms of SoS this year. The NFC North in general got both East divisions which don't have a team with a losing record. So that is 8 games against winning teams, then the Bears have 2x MIN and played SF. So 11 games against winning teams, and 4 of the non-winning games are against GB and DET. That leaves ATL and HOU as the last two games. I still can't believe the Bears lost to ATL. After the next two weeks, the Bears will have played the top 4 teams in terms of DVOA, PHI, BUF, SF, and DAL. Talk about bad luck. At least the Bears get the NFC South next year. That is the only division without a team with a winning record. They al…

time to look for a new kicker, possibly round 5-7 unless a really good FA is available. if we were in the hunt for the playoffs, this year he has cost us at least 2-3 games. any field goal under 50 should be automatic. if you can't hit xtra points yer done. this makes 2 out of 3 years with us he has sucked. time to move on.

Velus Jones is not going to be anything. I would not be surprised if he was cut in the offseason. At his age, they touted this maturity and work ethic. The dude is a WR that can't catch and fumbles, which is 50% of his job. It doesn't matter how fast he is if he can't catch or when he does, fumbles. The Gordon that was drafted finally showed up. He was all over the place, INT, fumble recovery, and some great tackling. This is the guy everyone expected. I hope he finishes the season like this. I have been mixed on the coaching staff, but what they are doing with this roster is quite impressive. From last year, the defense lost Mack, Hicks, Quinn, Smith, and Ja…

It is going to be COLD on Saturday. Wind Chill temps between -10 and -15 at game time. Brutal conditions. The ground is going to be like concrete. Huge injury risk. I feel like this is going to be a ground and pound game with very little passing. Probably lower scoring than the line is at. I am thinking 16-14 or something ugly like that.

I hope he is better at Cougar hunting than he is at QBing because he looks terrible. That game last night was one of the worst performances I have seen from a #2 pick that I can recall. This is also coming after a 300-yd game against DET last week and he also had 355 yards against NE a few weeks ago. His QBR last night was 5.2. Only Kyle Allen and Matt Ryan had worse QBR games with as many passing attempts this season. What is absolutely wild is his completion percentage (among other things). He was 50% last night, 51.4% against DET and only 40.9% against NE. He had a 55.6% last year and some how is worse this year with 54.5%. It is not even like he is throwing…

With the Bears having the ability to essentially outbid everyone, who would be the top players you would like to see added in the offseason. For me, it would be Da'Ron Payne, DT, Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Jamel Dean, CB, with Mike Gesicki, TE as an Honorable Mention. That would add basically 4 top level players to the roster before Poles fills the rest in with some mid-level deals and vet mins before the draft. I figure other guys like Pocic (Center), an Edge and LB will also be in play. I could also see them signing two new DTs. However, I will go with these 4 today. Payne seems like the most obvious choice, I hope they get him. Brown is a huge need, and…

In the NFC, only one division essentially up for grabs. PHI, MIN, SF are already in with DAL as the WC1. NFC South 1. TB 7-8 (CAR, ATL) wins out or wins 1 and CAR and NO lose 1 each. 2. CAR 6-9 (TB, @NO) needs to win out 3. NO 6-9 (@PHI, CAR) needs to win out and have TB lose 2 Week 17 TB vs CAR is basically for the Division title. If CAR wins, they have the tie breaker against TB and NO. NFC Wild Card 2. NYG 8-6-1 (IND, @PHI) - needs to win of 1 of 2 to get in. 3. WAS 7-7-1 (CLE, DAL) - needs to win out, or win 1 and have SEA, DET, and GB all lose one game each. --------------- 4. SEA 7-8 (NYJ, LAR) - needs to win out and have WAS to lose 1 of …

With Cole Kmet still only 23 yrs old, I took a look back at how the current top TEs looked before they turned 24 and I was pretty shocked. Right now, Kmet has 33 more receptions than the next best TE before the age of 24 and he needs only 68 more yards to pass Pitts (on IR) for the most yards by an (active) TE before the age of 24. If he gets 2 TDs, he would also tie Njoku for the TD lead with 9. Did you know Kmet was this productive at that young of an age? If he averages the same number of receptions and yardage he had last year (60-612) from 2023 until he was 34 (Kelce is 33), he would be in the top 5 for receptions by a TE (all-time). With that projected yar…

The Bears lost 31-30 the last time they played. Fields had over 300 yards of total offense and 4 TDs. Fields should pass Michael Vick's single season rushing total in this game (28 yards), but needs a big game to have a chance to pass Lamar's record in Week 18. Still funny to see him 7th in the NFL in rushing considering he missed a game. With Herbert now in his 2nd week back, he should look better, but it will be interesting to see if Claypool plays. The Bears defense will have their hands full, Detroit is good rushing and passing. I feel like this will be another high scoring affair, but the Bears will not have enough to hang with Detroit (sounds c…