Bearstalk

Based on the preseason predictions, these were the most under and over achieving teams this year with 1 week left: 1. DEN 11-6 > 4-12 (-7) 2. LAR 11-6 > 5-11 (-6) 3. IND 9-8 > 4-11-1 (-4.5) 4. TB 12-5 > 8-8 (-4) 5. ARZ 8-9 > 4-12 (-4) 1. PHI 9-8 > 13-3 (+4) 2. NYG 6-11 > 9-6-1 (+3.5) 3T. JAX 5-12 > 8-8 (+3) 3T. MIN 9-8 > 12-4 (+3) 3T. ATL 3-14 > 6-10 (+3) 3T. SEA 5-12 > 8-8 (+3) DEN and LAR are by far the farthest off their projections. IND was a lot worse than expected. PHI and NYG both surprised. Of the positive teams, only PHI and JAX had a decent point differential. NYG was +0, MIN -19, ATL -34, and SEA…

I don’t necessarily agree with all these takes, but they do make some sense so given the Bears needs there I thought I’d pass them along. https://jonledyard.substack.com/p/2023-nfl-draft-edge-defender-rankings

I was thinking, which players on the Bears have the best chance at a Pro Bowl, based on last year's performance, and a little projection? On defense, I was thinking Edmunds and Brisker. On offense, Moore and Jenkins or Davis seem like they have the best chance. Fields might have a shot. The best QBs in the NFC from last year were Hurts, Cousins, Goff, Smith, and Jones. What do you think? Do the Bears have anyone you think has a good shot at a Pro Bowl selection this year?

Why is this relevant to the Bears? Herbert signed after his 3rd year, so the Chargers didn't take advantage of his 5th year option. After this year (his 4th), his salary will go from a $8.4M cap hit to approximately $29M in 2024. If the Bears were to consider the same plan for Fields, that would be next offseason, and his big salary would kick in a year earlier than expected. That scares me. Also, I am surprised Herbert got that big of a deal. He was 18th in DVOA, 11th in QBR, and 12th in QB Rating. The only stat he was top 5 in was yards (which really don't matter unless you score). Even with 4739 yards, he still only had a 6.8 Y/A. If you took the name off an…

At the start of Free Agency, NFL.com listed their top 100 FAs. After the Yannick signing, here is what Poles did (w/ 2023 Cap hits): 27. Tremaine Edmunds ($14.6M) 34. Yannick Ngakoue ($10.5M) 44. Nate Davis (6.9M) 59. TJ Edwards ($5M) 89. Robert Tonyan ($2.6M) Also signed Demarcus Walker ($6.4M), D'onta Foreman ($2M), Andrew Billings ($2.7M), Travis Homer ($1.7M), Rasheem Green ($2.4M), Dylan Cole ($1M), and Terrell Lewis ($1M) who all should contribute. That's 12 players for $56M. Drafted: Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Tyler Scott, Roschon Johnson, Terrell Smith, and Kendall Williamson. Then acquired DJ Moore…

Record - 9-8 (I have been flipping flopping on this from 7 to 11 wins, but will stick with something in the middle. A few facts to consider, the Bears were 1-7 in one score games last year and lost a few in brutal fashion. If those games even out, the Bears are 6-10. Considering they have an easier schedule this year, that ups it to 7 wins. Then consider offensive improvement (Moore, Wright, etc) for 1 game, and defensive improvement (6 new starters) for 1 game, and you can get to 9 easily. Without any other factors considered, they are 9-8. MVP - Fields (Even if he improves as a passer due to Moore +, his legs are what make him special. That dual threat is hard for …

Would you rather have Velus Jones (WR), Claypool (WR), Wright (RT), and Dexter (DT) or Jalen Carter (DT), Rashee Rice (WR), Sam LaPorta (TE), and Abraham Lucas (RT)

https://apple.news/AGlvCusaJQkK0ufdmhWmqkw

Rumor is he’s getting a five year $93 million contract extension. Anyone know for sure?

i posted the information in these draft pick comparisons over 15 years ago but they still can help in determining the quality of the NFL draft and where you pick. It is a very intensive time consuming effort I published on this board and on the previous Bears board. The data was compilied up until 2007. So take it for what it's worth (or disregard it if you please).......... ================================================================================ 2012 below are some statistics i compiled for the old board about 8 years ago and i have updated the information to date, 2012. it lists all players drafted in slots 1-20 in the first round and how they compar…

This season the Bears had the NFC South and the AFC West, next season they get the AFC South and NFC West. It feels like a fairly even schedule. The Bears get 9 home games next season, which is nice. Here are the current non-division games: @SF, JAX, @IND, @HOU, LAR, SEA, TEN, @ARZ, WAS, NE, CAR I know we don't know what some teams will look like, but to make the playoffs next year, the Bears would need at least 6-7 wins from this group. So CAR, NE, WAS, ARZ, and TEN seem like highly likely wins. They would need 1-2 from SEA, LAR, HOU, IND, and JAX. What do you think? I feel like that is very reasonable and the odds should have the Bears favored in at least 6 of…

I'm only about 10 minutes into this, and it seemed pretty interesting so far. I figured I'd post the link in case any of you all got bored and wanted to watch it. Banter between Amon-Ra and D.J. has been good so far. D.J. was 5th in voting for the Pro Bowl. He said 5th alternate, but you can tell from there talking A.J. Brown is the guy above him. The Bears wouldn't tel;l him what alternate he was, but his agent did.

We've debated, ad nauseum, about what to do with the draft and Justin. Many scenarios have occurred, from drafting Williams to trading back to gain capitol. Since it's pre combine, I'm doing a win win draft for what I'd like. I didn't get a starting center or swing tackle, but free agency should should be good in that area. Twelve picks and Washingtons 2025 number one. I also adjusted to count for an early second for Justin.

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First opportunity to ever draft both and this is what it cost.

Just looking at the team pre-draft by position groups, it is hard to see how this team won't be better this year. Here is what I am thinking: QB - Right now a downgrade with only Bagent and Rypien, but should be an upgrade in the passing game and a dip in the running game production post-draft. RB - This group basically went from Foreman to Swift, and Roschon in his 2nd year. That is a clear upgrade and should negate any loss to the rushing game from the QB position. TE - The addition of Everett makes this a clear upgrade. TE3 needs to be a blocking TE. WR - Adding Allen and subtracting Mooney is like a double positive here. I don't think WR3 is a huge need wit…

Last year we were the top rushing defense in the league, tied leading the league in interceptions with 22. Other areas we were not very strong. When Sweat got here things started to change. The worst pass rush in the league got better. We lost Justin Jones ( a good player) and Eddie Jackson who IMO didnt contribute anything to the defense. What's different? We will have Sweat for the whole year. He upgraded the play of everyone around him. Kevin Byard is a better player than Jackson. 28 career intceptions in 8 years. A much better tackler than Eddie. They both are the same age and Byard is statiscally better in every area. Young players make there …

From Warren Sharp. He just posted his secondary rankings and the Bears come in at #4. He had the Bears WR Corps at #3, the O-Line at #12 and the Front Seven at #21. So the average of those 4 units is #10. So I don't know what you think of Caleb Williams, the Bears RBs, Santos and Taylor, but they are all at least top half of the league. So saying the Bears have a top 10 roster is not a stretch at all. The Bears also have the 3rd easiest schedule. So if you have the #10 roster and are playing the 3rd easiest schedule, that has to make you a top 8 team right? It is just simple math. That is a 10-11 win team. So projections having the Bears with double digit …

Here are my stand out players who I think will slip into the bottom of the 53-man. OFF - TE - Tommy Sweeney 6-75, 1 TD - With Kmet, Everett, and Lewis not playing ST, I think they carry a 4th TE, and it would be Sweeney. He also has been a key contributor with several ST tackles. WR - Dante Pettis 5-98, 2 TD - I think Pettis ends up as WR5/6 and is the lead PR. He looks healthy this year and reminds me of his time in SF where he looked like a solid WR2/3. Like Sweeney, Pettis has ST value. That might get him on the roster over Johnson and/or possibly Velus. DEF - Edge - Hardy 10 tackles, 3.5 sacks - This dude has really impressed. He is everywhere…

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