BearFan PHX

There are several special players like Jeanty, Golden, maybe some DL that may be worth taking no matter what. They are just that good. I think we should have done something in FA at LT if that's the way we're going, but i cant tell anyone that taking Jeanty or Golden is a bad idea. They are studs. 100% - If we trade UP for Jeanty, we will all cry, but if he turns out to be Walter Payton 2.0 we will all be really glad it happened. I can see it. But I also think LT is a glaring need, and giving Caleb consistent time unmolested for the next 5 years is a really good idea too. Jeanty is a stud, but there are HBs to be had in the 2nd round who are great. I like Kaleb Johnson personally, but Henderson is OK too, and Skatebo is pretty fun to watch. I dont think there will be any starting LTs let by say pick 26 or earlier. 20 to be safe.

you have to swing for the fences when the player is right. Just like we could have gotten a haul instead of Caleb. But we swung for the fences. And i still think we were right to do it - this season and next will show that.

right, but if everything tells you that, then you take the risk. in your way of thinking youd have a team full of decent guys and no superstars, because superstars cost and they arent guaranteed?

Yes. For me if Banks is gone, and Warren is what's left for you for example, I have traded down between 17 and 20 and taken Ersery there. Then I got an extra 2nd round pick, so I get a lot of drafts like: 20 Ersery 39 BPA Nolen or Starks or a DE some kind of help on D 41 BPA WR or TE 48 Kaleb Johnson That extra 2nd round pick gives you those extra BPA guys. My current rules say: 1) You must get a starting LT - and that's hard to do as low as 39. So you kinda gotta snag Ersery around 20 if you dont get one at 10 2) You must get a starting HB - and so thats T Henderson or K Johnson with one of your second rounders if it isnt Jeanty at 10. So mathematically, to comply with both rules... If you dont get Banks, say you take Jeanty, then you almost have to trade up into the first round around 20 to get Ersery in order to satisfy my rules above. If you dont follow them, you risk LT or HB being not good enough depending on how things fall. If you do trade down though, then that gives you TWO best player available picks in the 2nd round. You get your OT, and a RB, and you get 2 more picks to help on D, or add that WR3 or TE2. I like Malakai Starks a lot at Safety. He's a luxury pick this year. If we trade down, Id make him the extra guy at the top of the 2nd. And if you spend the 10th pick, then you lose that extra guy. So it all depends who is there at 10, but if you trade back, then you get an extra guy, but if you stay at 10 and dont pick a LT then you have to spend a 2nd and a 3rd to get back up into the first to take an OT. ***** In the end these are the scenarios that end up with both good OT and HB ***** #1 Trade back for Ersery, you dont get Banks or Jeanty but you get 3 x 2nd rounders one must be HB Ersery, HB & BPA 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd OR #2 Stay at 10 and take Banks and you get 2 x 2nd round players one must be HB Banks, HB & BPA 1 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd OR #3 You take Jeanty and you get 1 x 2nd round players for a BPA but you lose the other 2nd and your 3rd to move back into the first for Ersery Jeanty, Ersery & 1 x BPA 2nd so Ersery, HB & BPA 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd Banks, HB & BPA 1 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd Jeanty, Ersery, BPA 1 x 2nd I like #2 best because Ersery is a step down, but you can sell me on #3 too because of Jeanty #1 is the haul, but you miss both blue chippers Jeanty and Banks.

I have watched about 5 games against his toughest opponents. I watched the plays multiple times, checked the feet, checked the bend and anchor. Saw the "sack" against Georgia where he kept the pocket clean for 5 seconds, and then got his guy on the ground, and then the QB steps up like 3 seconds late into the picket and the guy on the ground gets his shoe. So PFF gives Banks a sack for that. it's not reality. I'll take 5 seconds of clean protection and then a pancake as a GOOD rep any day. Plus bansk is excellent at handing guys off and reading stunts and stuff. Seriously, you WANT this guy on your team! How am I having flashbacks of trying to convince you that Caleb Williams is a good QB prospect?! If Brugler thinks Banks plays too high, then he isn't worth listening to about anything. i don't care how many gold stars are next to his name, if he says that, then he's an idiot. In order for me to be wrong, Banks would have to have played high in the other games, but not at all in the games i watched. What are the odds of that? And if that's what happened, then Banks knows how to not play high, because he didnt, so it's not a problem. Honestly I think in one of the recent videos you linked he said CAMPBELL plays high and you got it twisted. I watched and he was talking about Campbell. Whatever the reason, Banks doesnt play high, and if someone says he does, then they don't know what they are talking about. It's not subjective. You can watch the film. Find me 5 snaps where he plays high. Seriously. This is getting ridiculous. The King of NFL media says 2+2 = 5, and Im just a common farmer, and Im like "wait, no thats not right" Doubling down on the expert factor just makes my point that experts dont know crap a lot of the time.

How does Kelvin Banks play too high? If you watch the tape he has great pad level. Campbell plays too high. Also, he did very well against top competition. I dont get it. It's like living in crazyland. PFF and Daniel Jeremiah. If thats what they think, then they shouldn't be analysts! Someone show me 5 snaps where Banks plays too high! And please dont get me wrong, this isn't Banks love from me. The reason I like Banks is because hes good. I didnt randomly pick him and then decide to defend him! The only reason I like him in the first place is his tape!

I'm saying if you KNOW you're getting Payton or Donald, you dont worry about the assets it took. Of course no one knows, so its a gamble, but if as a GM youre sure, then you dont let some 2nd or 3rd round picks stop you from trading up to grab the superstar.

well you know me, I want the LT, but if you think Jeanty (or any one player) is gonna be the next Walter Payton or Aaron Donald, its not wrong to trade up to get them. You can have a team full of pretty good players, but those superstars win superbowls and they are not easy to get.

numbers, narratives. watch the tape and see who can play.

True! And the coaching staff too. We now know that Flus was scared of the high character guys he had in the locker room - can you imagine if he had had to deal with Janel Carter during that period of time? But now we have a real team and a real roster and we can take on a few projects like Green and likely be successful.

more knocks on Campbell: He consistently plays too high, making him open to bull rishes at the NFL level He is terrible at hand fighting He gets beat to the inside too often

I like Banks as the pick, but I would be very happy if we got Graham or Jeanty too. I'd worry about LT, but i'd know we got some really good players. I dont like Warren at all though. In fact, I'd take Loveland over him. Warren in the 2nd round? Sure. Easily, but I dont think he is as good as he is being hyped.

Yeah I know. All I have is my eyes and my ears and whatever i can discern myself: my opinion. I dont know where these guys get their information, or maybe better said, how much not important information they let into their decision making process. I see what I see, and no one, no matter how well credentialed, can shake me from saying I saw what i saw. It's like if you see a UFO. Everyone can tell you it's impossible, and you didn't see it. But if you actually saw it, then no one can tell you you didn't. It's a bad example because i dont believe in UFOs, but if I saw one, no matter how much pressure i was under, I wouldnt ever break and say i didnt see it. No matter how many experts told me I didnt. I saw Banks and Campbell. It was easy to see. ANYONE could see it. I guess when you start adding in combine numbers, and narratives it gets harder to see. So i dont do that. I just saw them play. And anyone who thinks Campbell is better than Banks based on the film is crazy. That's the truth. Now should we take Banks or Golden, or Graham or Jeanty - those are difficult questions. I dont have an answer that's right to those. I just have my opinion. I cant see on film that Jeanty will help the team more than Banks (or vice versa) thats really complicated. Good people can debate that either way. But with Banks and Campbell playing the same position, apples to apples, it was clear and solid. Banks is better. It's like when I said JF would never be the man. After a certain amount of tape, it isnt a question anymore. It becomes, just a fact. It has nothing to do with my ego or anything like that. It's just i saw what i saw. You can see it too. Anyone can. I dont care what the pundits say. If they disagree theyre either stupid, lying or taking garbage data into the equation.

one way or another we should end up with some pretty good names with our first 2 round picks.

The film I saw wasnt close. Im not saying everyone doesnt have good and bad reps, but when you look at the style and technique, and not just whether they kept their guy blocked or not, then you see a clear difference. I do understand you desire for Jeanty. I feel like the disciplined thing to do is to take banks if hes there, but im not sure im right about that. if they take Jeanty, I will worry about LT, but I'll be over the moon for Chicago to have another star HB.

youre right of course. and once you get out of the first 10 or 20 picks, it gets a lot grayer and thats where the scouts earn their money. But looking at Banks and Campbell, it's hard to imagine what human bias would make someone think Campbell was better on film. On stats, on measurables, 40 yard dashes, and what other people said about them sure it can get confusing. But i truly think if all of us on this board, watch the film i did, we would all see it the same way. Banks glides, Campbell seems like clumsy chaos. Now regarding Jeanty, thats different. If the question is Banks (or whoever) vs Jeanty, thats not science I agree. It's apples and oranges, and multidimensional, and different people can have different ideas. Im not saying its obvious to take Banks over Jeanty! I couldnt possibly. Im saying taking Banks over Campbell, thats apples to apples.

I dont have an echo chamber, because I dont care what any of them say! I just look at the film, and make up my own mind. Maybe I'm wrong on my own, but it's not because of an echo chamber! When you (or anyone!) reads the writers, then the narratives start to pile up, and people find patterns, like faces in clouds. We cant help it. Its the nature of believing there are such things as draft experts, and that what they say is data. It isn't. Brugler (for example) doesnt know any more than the other experts do. And I can prove it: If you ask 10 chemistry experts a chemistry question, they will all give you the same correct answer. That is a strong indication that being a chemistry expert means you know about chemistry. This goes for many fields of study and expertise. BUT if you ask 10 top draft experts who the Bears will pick at 10, they will all disagree! Therefore, even if one is right, then you can say 9 out of 10 draft experts are wrong about any given question. Maybe even 10 out of 10. When all the experts disagree, that means being an expert doesn't mean anything. So their opinion is as good as anyone elses. And Im surprised at it frankly. When I look at film of Campbell and Banks it isnt even close for me. It just pops out. I feel like any random person if they watched the film I watched, and looked for the traits i listed a few posts earlier, or even just how smooth they look doing it, would see it too, as clear as day. It's really obvious. How these experts can possibly say Campbell is the better prospect is confounding. It's like saying 2+2=5 - to me it isn't murky, or "one guy is better at ______ and the other is better at ________" it's just so obvious. Banks is better than Campbell in every way. So the experts are reading too much, or theyre looking at 40 times or something. I haven't looked at Campbell's or Banks' combine numbers once. I dont care what the common single phrase about a player is "short arms" or "hasnt progressed" and we all know how deceiving stats can be. These arent data points, they're STORIES for an audience that wants to read them. In an example you'll agree with, look at Erik Lambert! In the past 2 weeks he has stories that claim we're definitely taking at least 15 different players, including Jeanty, Omarion Hampton and TreVayon Henderson at RB with pick 10! He's got CBs, DTs, all three OTs. 15 different answers and rumors. This isnt informative journalism - it's not even MEANT to be - its STORYTELLING. And being right isnt as important as being entertaining. Being provacative is more important than being right! We live in a world of sports writers, many of whom write, as if it were the truth, that Caleb had a really bad rookie year, I have to call BS. I dont know why theyre so stupid. I dont know what affects them so that presumably intelligent people start saying these things. It's kind of scary really. So far from reality. Makes you wonder about other experts in politics, or economics, or medicine or anything! But no matter how many experts say that Membou or Omarion Hampton are top notch football players, I can see the emperor is naked. He just is. Can they possibly develop in the NFL? Of course. Theyre kids. Who can say when the light might go on for a 23 year old and suddenly they get it? But we CAN value where they're at right now as a prospect, what traits they show, what they put on the film. and if you look past how may sacks they're deemed responsible for by PFF, and instead just look at how they do their blocking on film as an athlete; anchor, bend etc etc then the good ones are easy to see from the bad ones. I dont have a show or a way to get clicks on this. I'm just a Bears fan talking about what we should do. So stories aside, I can tell you factually that Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou as a LT prospect. And I can tell you that Banks has everything he needs to become a great NFL player. at LT The rest is just insane. Now, we CAN debate things like whether Jeanty is a better pick than Banks. That's not something you can see on tape. That's a much more complicated, because it's two different positions, etc. But player evals themselves at the top of the draft should be easy. If youre a top 10 pick, it should shine in an obvious way on the tape. And it does. He's not even "OT1 in a draft that is lacking in OTs" thats a narrative. Who the other OTs are doesnt change him as a prospect. He's just a singular person, and you can watch his tape and project him into the NFL based on his current level. Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou. It's not really an opinion. The film is the film.

I think a lot of this is an echo chamber too. Your sources tell you a point of view, and then they re-enforce it, until you (anyone not YOU) feel like its true because its confirmed, but the confirmation is really just the same echo chamber. After all the dust clears, dont sleep on Banks. i just hope he is still there when we get our pick.

and on draftbuzz he doesnt make it out of the 1st round now, usually going in the 20s. I think it's hard to know where these guys will go. And its hard to trust the experts on this too, because if being an expert made you right, then the experts would agree, and they dont.

I mostly look at these things: Pad Level Footwork = keeping a base under you as the rusher moves Back Bend = sinking the butt and pushing up to absorb energy Fluidity in the hips = getting reestablished as the angles change Raw Strength = country strong Hand Fighting Punching vs catching = rhythm. when you engage Intelligence = reading stunts, finding the right guy to block Speed in pulling and getting to the 2nd level, if necessary for the position or scheme Desire = play to the whistle or give up And then in doing all this, is it fluid or clumsy. Does it look under control or like chaos is about to erupt at any moment. Also to the idea of how they will pan out, no one can know that of course! All we can do is evaluate where they are right now. How a kid will be in 2 years with NFL coaching is hard to say, but what traits they have, and what problems they have should be apparent in the tape.

Im afraid youre right. I just think its funny that the machine has to go through so many iterations just to land on what the film said from the beginning. DDPhil likes Campbell too, has him as his #2 OT, I think he's got real problems. That's one I disagree on. If Banks is gone, we are free to look at any of the other options like DL or skill position after all. But i really think that Banks is the right choice for us if he falls to us.

youre right! I should have said a pressure. Caleb has great escapability, so a lot of times that Braxton got pushed back it wasnt a sack per se. I do know that on key downs Caleb didnt have as much time as I (or he!) would have liked. I should have said it like that.

The book is out on Braxton now - if you need a sack, you bull rush him. Teams were able to choose which down they wanted a sack on last year. Obviously you cant bull rush someone on every down, it gets predictable and you can scheme in help, but by the second half of the season, on critical downs, it was all bull rush.

exactly and hes only 20. Banks is going to be a plus player in the NFL, especially with a guy like Roushar to guide him - I just worry hell be gone before pick 10.

Draft Buzz has changed their rankings and now Banks is their #6 ranked player overall, OT1. In mock drafts on that site it is almost impossible to get Banks at 10 anymore. I think Banks is light years ahead of Braxton Jones right now, and has room to grow. I think Amagadje has a better chance to be our starter in 2 years than Jones does. And Banks is significantly better than each.