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I think on your point that a QB has a 66% chance of being a top 2 QB is something I can't see. There are 32 starting QB's in the NFL - one is Patrick Mahomes. So odds that in a given year I have a 2/3rd's chance that I am going to get someone who is either better than Patrick Mahomes or better than Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and whomever you have on that next tier seems off the mark. Now if you say - odds are 50/50 that he is a top 7 QB - than I can maybe get into that window. I think when it comes to deciding who is a top 2 QB it gets really hard. I mean just look at the last handful of those guys - only Peyton Manning was a #1 overall picks (and this is coming from someone who supports taking a QB early). Otherwise - If I think back to the last 15 years - at different point(s) in their careers - these 5 stand out the most: Tom Brady - We know the story Mahomes - Taken after a few others Rodgers - Fell in the draft Drew Brees - 2nd round pick (or last pick in 1st round - don't recall) Peyton Manning - #1 overall Next Wave: Big Ben - High pick - but not top 5 Josh Allen - High pick - but not #1 overall (and he needs to win a superbowl I think to get into the next list) Lamar Jackson - Late 1st rounder Eli Manning - High pick - I don't know if I want to rate him but I guess i will Matt Ryan - might be stretching, but #1 overall

I think of it more like - if reality is - picking QB's is really a bit of a crapshoot - than just build the better team and have the bullets. I still have zero problem with stick at 1, trade down to 13 with raiders to pick up a 2nd rounder - than draft either a wideout at 13 and a linemen with 2nd rounder (or with the pick(s) we get for Fields or do the opposite and take an olinemen at 13 and wideout(s) later.

And I do agree - in "Da Haul" scenario, where Bears end up with 2 top 10 picks this year, 2 2nd rounders, plus 2 extra FRP next year, and 2 extra 2nd rounders, the Bears financially are getting 6 extra 1st/2nd round picks over course of this year and next year). When you think about cap situations and locking in that many picks for the next 4-5 years, that is the equivalent to a "rookie year" QB contract, thus you really shouldn't have any concern with the impact a Justin Fields (or massive FA signing) would have on you. You also still have every ability to use one of those picks on trying to find the next QB - while knowing they will walk into an organization that should look VERY stable with blue-chip talent all around it (even if some of the picks don't hit). So in reality - "Da Haul" gives you 6 extra 1st and 2nd round picks (2 extra FRP, 4 extra 2RP's) plus positions yourself you to have cap space like a team with a rookie QB (even if you paid a QB) because the value of having so many high round picks allows you to have more FA cap space as you otherwise would. The challenge will be 4-5 years down the road - Poles has to be smart and know how to play his hand and decide who to extent vs. who to trade early so they effectively manage their cap space (and quite frankly - consistently leverage the draft capital they leveraged to continue to multiply). Kind of like a good investor can turn their first million into 100 million way faster cause they have enough starting capital.

More I think of it - the more I would be good with either the double trade down scenario or the stick at 1 or single trade down scenario (if I can get a 2nd and a future first plus the 2 pick that is probably worth it), than move Fields. Basically put - Poles just has to pick the right guys - he does that and any of these scenarios work really well. I do think the lowest risk scenario is the double trade down…you just have so many options to hit blue chippers, with the main risk that you miss the big blue chip but you make up for that with more chances to take a swing.

I'll be clear - I have been on the draft a QB bandwagon - however, I will state very clearly - I would have zero issue if the Bears made that move and I don't believe what King is proposing is unrealistic. Bears at 8 & 9 can take 2 of (top 3 WR, Top 2 LT, Top Dline). They would than have 2 2nd round picks - one could address center and in this draft, I would actually suggest the other addresses (wideout). But you could also, if you wanted to - use one of those 2nd rounders on whatever QB prospect fell (whether Nix or Penix)...but one of them would be there. Cap wise - you actually should be able to make another big signing or two - in particular I would say on the dline where there is more talent in FA than some of the other positions. I say this knowing yeah, if Fields works out you are paying him, but you also have 3 1st round picks and 3 2nd rounders in 25 which puts you in an incredible spot to built a really good team.

It should be back to normal tomorrow. Google made a change in their algorithm but I think I figured out how to turn that off.

I like this trade down from 9 to 13. https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-trade-back-first-round-001109761.html

They are tagging him and hopefully can find a middle ground.

He definitely left them - but last year - it seemed pretty clear they were all-in on Justin and consistently talked about having to be blown away. It came up a ton - this year - it came up at the end of season press conference, but we really haven't heard much since. It also seems like Field(s) isn't in the building and hasn't had a ton of dialogue. I really expect he'll be traded by the league new year and realistically more like by the end of next week. I think Poles wants to move quick and not let this drag out. Bird in hand and don't find out the market moves against you. Additionally - acquiring team(s) with new head coaches can get to work with Fields beginning in April - so I would think they'd want to have stuff done fast, but more than that, I feel like Poles is a players GM and he recognizes how good Field(s) has been from a lockeroom / character perspective and wants to do the right thing and get him somewhere fast so he can get playbooks and get to work and be as successful as possible. Heck - look at how quickly he was to move Ejax and Whitehair - two guys who were quality veterans for this club for a long time. Easy moves - but a lot of franchises will let them drag on.

So it did hit me - I presume Caleb, Maye and Daniels go in top 8 picks. That would leave JJ, Penix and Nix as the next 3. Penix and Nix are older so my guess is they fall out of round 1 or end up going later in round 1 (say qb needy team trades up to snag and ensure they have 5th year option - 2nd rounders don’t get that). So that leaves McCarthy as the one guy who could go top 15. After the Bears pick - you have the Jets (need a qb but shocked if they took one) followed by Vikings, Raiders, and Broncos. Three teams who are very likely to take a qb. If you are Raiders or Broncos - if you are worried you are calling Bears or Jets to move up. If Bears were open for business this wouldn’t be terrible - especially if it was one of Raiders or Broncos that moved up. I don’t suspect Jets or Vikings are taking a wideout that early - so means you have a decent shot at moving down and still getting one of top wideouts or top dline (I will guess oline is gone as Jets take one).

Let me check

Let me check - that shouldn’t happen. Let me see if some setting god changed by google.

I think we end up with an early 2nd and 3rd for Fields so once that is done I suspect we feel better about the number of picks we have.

I think I could see moving down from 9 but only as low as your grade of blue chip talent is. If you have 15 blue chippers and a bunch in same spot and positional flexibility than go ahead and move down 4-5 spots. With that said - what do bears get if they moved from 9 to 15? How far down do they have to move where you are getting a big enough pick back. Like I’m not moving down 4 spots to get a 4th rounder.

Do any of the teams interested in Fields have a young center who could maybe be part of a deal? I do agree that JPJ is who I would want - I just don’t see how Bears could do it given current draft capital.

This is who I would want.

This fits fact I think we take an ot at 9. Book end your top qb with first round ots, Jenkins, Davis and a free agent center (plus try to hit some more oline men in draft).

I think center in free agency. I don’t love drafting a rookie center and expecting him to start but I am good with drafting one in 3rd or 4th round and trying to develop.

Stroud was on the laughing stock of a football team. Mahomes / Love is an argument I can buy as KC and Packers were stable franchises and solid teams. But Stroud went to a horrific franchise who was being made fun of and had zero building blocks and turned themselves around literally the second they drafted Stroud.

I am starting to waver on my initial mock - which was Williams & Rome and am pivoting to. Williams LT or Top Dlinemen Field(s) pick(s) - wideouts (I am assuming we get a late 1st or a 2nd and 3rd and than am proposing we use those to draft wideouts plus sign Samuel).

I suspect it will be Bagent but they will have a competition for the spot and bring in some veteran back-up to compete with Bagent for 2nd string spot (and be able to stay around as the 3rd stringer if he loses the battle to Bagent). Drew Lock is one of the options - given his familiarity with Waldron's system. As far as Caleb - I suspect he will start from day 1 barring injury. I say that because he is going #1 overall and he has 3+ years starting experience in college, so feels like the type of guy who you throw into the fire vs. having them wait. I also don't think waiting works unless you really plan on sitting the player for the full season. Now if I drafted JJ McCarthy, who was less experience - than I think a team taking him should plan on sitting him for 1-2 years. To me that is the only QB you take where I would keep Field(s) around. I love McCarthy - but I think only way he ends up good is if he sits for a while. Note: Nagy was right about Field(s) too. He should have sat that entire year and had a real off-season before getting thrown into the fire. Bears and Pace were pressured to force the situation and I truly believe it had a negative impact on Fields (who was too inexperienced to get thrown into the NFL like that).

If it were anyone other than Field(s) - I would be mad that the Bears passed on a QB. But I will state - the Bears have never had a more likable individual play the QB position ever. His character traits are just off the charts special.

Excellent point there - really appreciate the deep dives you do.

I like how they did now with both of these guys to do them a solid.

One thing that has morphed in the last 5 years is wideouts seem to have gotten a new upper echelon in terms of how much they get paid. I know there were always a few that got paid -but than we got into the point where wideouts are now being paid more like top end DE's - which changes the structure and maybe increases the benefit of drafting a wideout early (and locking them into a rookie deal). With that said - I am curious if the wideout bust rate is higher or materially different than other positions. If it turns out - wideouts in top 10 bust 20% more than dlinemen or OT's in top 10 - that would be an interesting data point as well. I will admit - I have long been on the - take a QB and get him help. Help likely meant WR - however, help also could very well be one of the top to LT's are sitting there and that is not a bad thing either. Jones becomes a swing tackle (I don't know if he can move to guard) and than you now need to sign a free agent center. Than invest in a wide receiver or two later in the draft (probably using the pick(s) you get from Fields to get it) and add a vet wideout as well.