adam

The team is void of "dudes", Jones is fine for depth, Billings is good, Dexter is improving, but they need an elite gut inside. With Jackson's and Whitehair's numbers coming off the books, they can easily extend JJ AND sign a top tier FA with ease.

Shanahan choked again. That 2nd half was terrible. Outside of 2 or 3 passes, Purdy was Mr. Screen. I don't know if he had a completed pass over 20 air yards. Kittle was held to 2 passes and 4 yards. If SF doesn't have McCaffrey, this team feels like a 8 win team for some reason. Even with the other weapons. Ed's son had 22 carries and 8 receptions, led the team in touches and yards for both rushing and passing. Shanahan is the new Shottenheimer. Has a great regular season record, wins some playoff games, but never wins the big one.

I would love either one. A 3-4 year deal would cover this "run".

If Williams is going to be a bust, he would be one of the most accomplished busts in NFL history selected at #1. There were huge red flags with recent #1s that were busts or not great. Williams has none of the normal red flags. He doesn't lack experience. He was not a one season wonder. If he comes in shorter than 6'1", then there would be his red flag. The improv stuff he does is what everyone gushes over with Fields, Mahomes, Allen, etc. I honestly would be more concerned with guys with lack of reps. The NFL has shown if you come in with low reps, you have a huge mountain to climb. You have to learn how to drive on the autobahn vs a side road. Young - The size of a minion, huge red flag or shall I say a small one? To me, he was always undraftable due to his size. Murray - 1 great season, 2 others less than 700 yards passing, 519 total passing attempts in college. Huge red flag for lack of experience. Winston - Only played 2 years of QB, 25-18 TD-INT Rate. Super alarming INT ratio, it never changed in the NFL. Bradford - 1 great season, in his Junior year, injured, only 562 passing yards and they still drafted him #1. An injured QB that keeps getting injured. He was always a huge red flag for injuries. So is their a recent #1 pick that came in as accomplished as Williams and ended up as a bust? 72-10 TD-INT ratio in his last two season with 21 additional rushing TDs with 8,170 passing yards over the last two years. He really has been super consistent for a long period of time. PCT: 64.5>66.6>68.6, Y/A: 9.1>9.4>9.4, QB Rating: 169.6>168.5>170.1. Can anyone show me a QB that was that consistent for 2+ years in college that was a bust in the NFL?

It is definitely interesting. It could be they are just hedging their bets. If he is awesome, they can point to their "based on the tape" eval. If he busts, they can say, oh well, my initial eval was not a full assessment, or something along those lines. It is almost like everyone is pulling back from the "generational" thing. He is continually liking a bunch of Bears tweets. It could be trolling, but he hasn't done it for other teams.

For Goff, with LA, he had 2x 4600 yard passing seasons, made the PB twice, and had 3 playoff appearance with LA. 6 seasons with a QBR over 50 (4 with LA). Murray had 3 straight seasons with 3,700 yards, 2 PBs, and was AP ORoY and had a playoff appearance. His career QB Rating is 92.2 4 seasons with a QBR over 50. Trubisky's best season was 3,223 passing yards and 24 TDs. That would be Goff's 8th best season and Murray's 4th. Mitch had 1 season with a QBR over 50.

I am trying to figure out some trade scenarios for Fields. I still like the 8>9 swap and a 2nd+late round pick from ATL. This one I got Williams, Bowers, Legette, Van Pran, Irving, Rouse, and Williams on offense and Bullard on defense. That is just the way the board fell out. This would be crazy if the Bears also signed Hunter at Edge and resigned JJ. Offense would be: Williams-QB, Moore-WR1, Samuel-WR2, Legette-WR3, Williams-WR4, Bowers-TE1, Kmet-TE2, Herbert-RB1, Irving-RB2, Johnson-RB3, Wright-RT, Davis-RG, Van Pran-C, Jenkins-LG, Jones-LT. Rouse and Borom backups. Defense would be: Sweat, Hunter, Billings, Dexter, Edmunds, Edwards, Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, and Bullard.

Another eval:

Now back to Williams. As far as I can tell, he is the only QB I could find that had a PFF Grade over 90 for his last two seasons + QBR over 80 + 3500 passing yards the last two years + over 40 total TDs the last two years + over 30 passing TDs the last two seasons, and 5 or less INTs the last two seasons. None of the other QBs hit those marks two years straight. Fields didn't either season with his best total being 3,273 passing yds, which should've been a red flag. Burrow didn't do it. Lawrence didn't do it, and Hurts didn't do it. So Williams has had sustained success for 2 full collegiate seasons at a high level.

Yeah, the draft order instead of their draft pick #. I think it is less relevant that someone was picked at #12 vs being the 2nd QB selected (QB2). Hit rate is success with their drafted team. It is great that Geno and Mayfield have resurrected their careers, but Mayfield is on his 4th team, but has not had "sustained success". Goff got LAR to the Super Bowl, so he counts. For the younger guys, I went off what they have shown to this point. Stroud excelled as a rookie, which is rare. Love is in his 4th year, so he has to show that this year was not a fluke. Richardson has done nothing so far but could change that over time. These are as of today. If you did count Mayfield, then drafting a QB #1 is a no-brainer, that would be 5 out of the last 6, and 7 out of the last 9 if you include Baker. Also, the one out of the 6 is Young, who still could become a decent QB. QB2 is wild, it has Mahomes as the unicorn, Stroud who exceeded a ton of expectations, but a lot of teams had him as QB1. The only other guy in that group is Tua, and he seems very team dependent.

Sweat and Hunter? Wow, that would arguably be the most formidable duo since prime Dent/Hampton. Mack/Quinn would be close but Quinn was a liability against the run.

Here is how the selection order of QBs has played out since 2010. I only counted QB1s selected in top 3, then all the remaining QBs in the first round. I listed the teams next to the guys that have not been starter quality yet. Most of those teams were terrible. 12 QBs as QB1 selected in top 3: Bryce Young - CAR Trevor Lawrence Joe Burrow Kyler Murray Baker Mayfield - CLE Jared Goff Jameis Winston - TB Andrew Luck Cam Newton Sam Bradford - STL/LAR Mitchell Trubisky - CHI Blake Bortles - JAX 50% hit rate 12 QB2's Drafted in First Round: C.J. Stroud Zach Wilson - NYJ Carson Wentz - PHI Marcus Mariota - TEN Robert Griffin - WAS Sam Darnold - NYJ Tua Tagovailoa Daniel Jones - NYG Jake Locker - TEN Patrick Mahomes Johnny Manziel - CLE Tim Tebow - DEN 25% hit rate 10 QB3s Drafted in First Round: Trey Lance - SF Anthony Richardson - IND Justin Herbert Josh Allen Ryan Tannehill - MIA Blaine Gabbert - JAX Deshaun Watson Dwayne Haskins - WAS Paxton Lynch - DEN Teddy Bridgewater - MIN 30% hit rate 5 QB4s Drafted in First Round: Josh Rosen - ARZ Justin Fields - CHI Christian Ponder - MIN Brandon Weeden - CLE Jordan Love - GB 0% hit rate 2 QB5s Drafted in First Round: Mac Jones - NE Lamar Jackson 50% hit rate

Hoge has been pretty spot on in the past. He really does not like Williams. This is going to be interesting to say the least.

At this point, it is the same thing as Fields not improving (like Trubisky), but at least you would have a rookie deal to have the cap space to deal with it. It is an absolute crazy place to be. This is so unique an unprecedented. It is going to take a haul to trade up for Williams, and I wouldn't mind getting the haul if they go that route. I am good if they stick with Fields but unless they get something like this, I think they are going QB:

I have seen this mentioned a lot. It feels like it could also be one of those things that has correlation but not causation. So would Trubisky be any different of a QB if drafted in 2016 and Fox had him for 2 years? I highly doubt it. Is Fields better if he was never drafted under Nagy and his first year was under Getsy and Flus? Again, I doubt there would be much of a difference. There have been many posts on the socials pointing out the sack rate with Fields and all other CHI QBs during the same window and Fields has twice as many. Trubisky was a half field read QB. There was a hard ceiling that you could not predict until he got to that point and couldn't improve beyond it. The Bears realized that in 2019 and probably gave Trubisky one too many years to fix it. Fields is very similar, but his is quick reads and MoF throws. He reminds me of a pitcher that can't throw a slider to save his life and has to go back to his bread and butter curve even when a slider is needed. Fields is at or near his ceiling. It seems now that he can only improve by improving everything around him. That is a team that can make the playoffs but will never get beyond one playoff win or so. There are a lot of QBs in that tier. I would say a good portion of the league make up that group. At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year.

What's crazy is he got hurt in the last game the Bears beat the Packers (2018), and never was the same player since. The split is wild: Pre-Injury: 30 games, 8 INT, 3 TD, 21 PD Post-Injury: 70 games, 7 INT, 0 TD, 23 PD He had a little blip in 2022 finally getting some INTs, but outside of a few games in 2022, he really has done nothing for 65+ games other than be a guy on the field. He really has been a liability out there. As much as they talked up his leadership, there were the times he was telling younger players not to worry about tackling, so besides for being a nice guy, good with the media, etc, he probably was kept a year too long, but with cap restraints, there was nothing Poles could do. Everyone knew his tackling was bad, but his tackles dropped in half from 2022, he averaged only 3 tackles a game, no FF, and no TFL. Even PFF grades, he peaked at 93.2 in 2018, hit 76.2 in 2022, 67.0 in 2019, and was under 60 in 2023, 2021, and 2020. What is sad is he was known for his coverage skills and he was one of the worst Safeties in coverage this season (7th worst in man, 44th best in zone) for Safeties with at least 377 snaps at S.

Jackson posted several cryptic messages on social media, but all allude to him being gone from Chicago. So there is the first domino and Whitehair is probably next. Those moves will open up a ton of cap space and now we can project the need for a new FS in free agency or in the draft. Eddie started out hot, got paid and hurt. Unfortunately, he was a different player after the injury. He shied away from contact too much, and at times just seemed like the 11th guy on the field running around away from the play.

Based on contract values, it feels like getting the higher priced positions in the draft is better budgeting. Assuming the Bears have around $30M in cap space for FA spending (subtracting rookie pool, JJ extension at $20M, operating money $5M, cut Whitehair/Jackson), I think they could target some very solid starters in key positions without breaking the bank on one guy. I don't think they are there yet to drop $20-25M on a vet and go all in that year. That feels like 2025-2026. This year it would be DT or Edge but I think Poles targets the Edwards-type deals. Something like this: Using OTCs player valuation: 1. C - Brown for $4M 2. TE2 - Fant for $6M 3. FS - Dugger for $6M (or restructure Jackson's cap down to $11-12M) 4. WR3 - Samuel for $5.5M 5. Edge2/3 - Epenesa for $5M 6. DT - Jefferson or Jones for $6M With the cap only being the top 51, the Bears can obviously bring in a bunch of $1M guys without impacting the cap. You can also expect 1 or 2 other guys at 2-3M per as well on one-year deals, probably WR4/5, KR/PR, Safety depth, DL rotation, and maybe even RB (Ekeler's OTC Valuation is only $5M per year). Thoughts?

Yeah that was sort of a filler position for the extra 1st rounder in 2025, it could be DT or Edge.

Those are not the final stats. Here they are: Sanders: 298-430, 69.3%, 3230 yds, 8.5 Y/A, 27 TD, 3 INT; Rushing 111- (-77) yds, 4 TD Williams: 266-388, 68.6%, 3633 yds, 9.4 Y/A, 30 TD, 5 INT; Rushing 97-142 yds, 11 TD QBR does factor in rushing and sacks. Williams ended up with an extra TD per game, which is a pretty big deal. Sanders is an intriguing prospect, but that was his only year at QB, so he only has 430 pass attempts, which would have an extremely high bust rate. He went back to school to pad his stats and he should be one of the top picks in 2025. He is sort of overshadowed by his coach.

Oh yeah, I was trying to keep it simple for comparison sake. As you move down, you are going to accumulate a ton more draft capital.

As Mongo said, 1 slot in this top 10 is huge. It might be the difference between getting Odunze or Bowers or missing out on both by one pick.

Yeah, you are spot on, for Option 2 and 3, I added #38 from TEN for Fields as a ballpark draft slot: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams + #38 -> (#1) (Williams + Center) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #38 + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + WR2 + Center + New OT)

Is it me, or are these the main 3 options for Poles? Obviously there can be more trades but with just a single trade down with WAS, these seem like the paths Poles can go. Pick #9 is in play for all options so it is omitted, these are the differences in each route: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams (#1) (Williams) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + Center + New OT)

I am not saying money is a problem, but it is a huge consideration, and in order to have sustained success, you have to look out and plan 3-5 years out. If every contract was a one year deal, sure no problem, but some contracts are 4-5 years. Poles obviously has a road map and the entire path is predicated on players and their contracts. I honestly think Poles never envisioned being in this position. He was planning on going into Year 3 with Fields as QB in his 4th season with 2x new 1st round draft picks on the roster. Getting the #1 overall pick has changed things. Now he has two of the best options a GM can have. Keep rolling with the current QB and load up on picks or roll the dice, draft a new QB and reset the QB timeline. Drafting a rookie QB does buy him 3 years of a small QB cap hit. If he goes with Fields, he knows that he has to pay that big money 3 years sooner (in 2026) but would have more players on rookie deals. He can make it work either way.