adam

Thank you Mitch Trubisky! 24-3 Cards, in Pittsburgh. Crazy.

He was literally their entire offense today.

Lol, and SEA plays SF then PHI the next two. The last 2 WC spots are going to come down to Week 18.

Lions hang on to beat the Saints. After starting 21-0, the Saints outscored the Lions 28-12. The Saints got the ball back down 5 with 5:54 to go, get into Lions territory and Winston couldn't find the magic. LaPorta was 9-140, while all other players had 7-73. Seriously, the Bears need to take this guy out of the game next week. The Lions are 3-1 in their last 4 games. They beat the Chargers 41-38 with a last second FG. They beat the Bears (we know how that one went), they lost to

Yep and on cue, Trubisky fumbles and the Cards score a TD, Card 17-3. So unless Trubisky turns into Mason Rudolph, the Cards are going to go to 3 wins.

Some interesting games for tankathon. ARZ (2 wins) is leading 10-3 in PIT, Trubisky now in. Crazy to think if Mitch plays bad, he can actually help the Bears draft position. The Chargers (4 wins) only have a 6-0 lead on the Patriots (2 wins). The Falcons are leading the Jets (4 wins) 13-8. The Titans (4 wins) have a 17-16 lead against the Colts. Commanders (4 wins) getting destroyed as expected, they will fall to 4-9 and bump the Bears to the 5th pick.

Sucks for FSU, you go undefeated and win your conference and lose out to Alabama who lost to Texas and barely beat Auburn last weekend. Strength of schedule killed them but record should trump SoS.

I am starting to see national media turn positive for the Bears. Gordon, Brisker, Johnson, Edwards, and Sweat are getting a lot praise nationally. On offense, I keep hearing about Kmet, Moore, Jenkins, Wright, and Braxton Jones. When Foreman was playing, he was getting some attention, and now I see that put on Roshcon, which is nice to see. Fields always got attention, so that is hard to decipher, but hearing about 10-12 Bears plays nationally on a regular basis has me hopeful for a turnaround. Many are even saying the record is not indicative of the talent on the roster and that if they keep trending like they have been, they are going to be a tough out down the stretch. I would like to believe that and see that. I hope everyone enjoyed their bye week and college football. Now we get to sit back and watch the tankathon standings for CAR's pick.

Happy for the kid, happy for the win, sort of a relief after the DET game. Now go beat DET in 2 weeks and Joe Flacco in 3.

I try to see it from everyone's perspective, including what the team will do. Personally, I want Fields to succeed and be H1M. That one condition makes this team take a monumental leap next season with 2x 1st rounders, regardless of what Poles does with them (draft 2 blue chippers, draft 1/trade 1 for a vet blue chip + future picks). However, as the weeks go on, he is trending towards not being that guy. Very few guys turn it around after 40 starts unless it is a reclamation project like Geno Smith but that is with another team. It happens, but when I think about it from the team's view and Poles' employment status, the only way he can ensure his own status while looking like he is making the right move for the organization is drafting a QB and trading Fields. Can you imagine if he passes on Stroud to keep Fields (Stroud was my #1 over Young), then passes on (Williams/Maye) for Fields only to have Fields be the same guy he has for the last 3 seasons? He would be fired by the deadline next year. There is a scenario for Fields though. If Fields balls out these last 5 games, and he ends up with 5-6 really good games out of his last 9 (including 2x for WAS/DEN), he may allow them to go with Plan A: Draft MHJ/Impact Edge or draft one pick and trade one an additional first in 2025+blue chipper. Plan B is to draft a QB and only pick up one blue chipper, but if that QB is better than Fields, it's equal or better (especially considering salary cap). Coaching is a huge part, the other players are too. I think of it as a car, the driver, the pit crew, the other cars, and the track (Bristol vs Talladega). All the factors impact the outcome of the race, but the driver is ultimately the one who decides 99% of the races. Fields is that driver, and the outcome of a lot of games have been riding on his shoulders. He needs to take over games and put them away with near mistake-free football. If he can do that, he stays.

I think everyone had their hopes up about Justin in Year #3, and due to a wide variety of things, he has not made as high of a leap as others or that most would've expected. The 3 main comps I have heard for recent QBs that got their true WR1 were Allen, Hurts, and Tua. Here are their Year 2 to 3 Year averages for passing yards per game, per attempt, and then a generic stat like QBR. Year 2 to Year 3 YPG - Y/A - QBR Allen - 193>284 (+91) 6.7>7.9 (+1.2) 49.4>76.6 (+27.2) Hurts 209>246 (+37) 7.3>8.0 (+0.7) 54.6>68.3 (+13.7) Tua - 204>272 (+68) 6.8>8.9 (+2.1) 55.7>70.6 (+14.9) Average +65 YPG +1.3 Y/A +18.6 QBR Fields 149>198 (+49) 7.1>7.1 (+/- 0.0) 56.3>44.7 (-11.6) Fields improved his YPG but not even to the point of the average of the other QBs. The other 3 started with higher averages, so technically any gains from them should've been harder. For Y/A, every QB except Fields saw an improvement. Then the dagger for me is QBR. It takes so many things into account and is truly an objective grade compared to PFF and others. In this case, all 3 of the others improved by no less than 13 pts, with them improving by an average of 18. Fields is down 11 from 2022 (so there is a 29 pt deviation there). Now the biggest caveat is, the year ain't over. Fields has 5 games to significantly influence all those numbers, but in order to do that, he needs more games like DEN and WAS. Those were the games we have all been waiting for. Now the next step is doing them consistently. So with 5 games remaining, he needs at least 3 of those type games. My conspiracy theory is that the team has already made the decision, that is why you saw some extremely conservative game plans the last few two weeks. They are going to limit one of Fields negatives, INTs, by not allowing him to throw into high danger areas. I am sure this is them building up trade value for him so when it is all said and done, his INT% is not one of the worst in the league. It looks to be working with no picks in the last two games. I could be wrong, but it just feels that way to me. I would rather see them let him rip it and see what happens.

How would you prioritize them? Like if you could only have one, what position are you filling? I think it might be OC, then FS (assuming Jackson is cut), and WR2.

Like I said, Scott gets another year at least, but he is not trending in the right direction. His snap counts went from 13 in Week 1 to 40 in Weeks 7 and 9. Then in Week 10, he dropped to 28, then 27, then all the way down to 12 in Week 12. Week 11 was the Detroit game where he fumbled and misplayed that deep ball. Getting your snaps cut in more than half feels like a demotion/punishment. Scott didn't even have a single target in Week 12. Prior to Week 12, Scott had at least 2 targets per game in 7 games. With only 12 snaps, he is near the healthy scratch area.

Yep, it is wild how many dependent variables there are.

mine too, my mullet is gone but not forgotten One thing I think we can all agree on, this is going to be an even more exciting offseason than last year.

I think they will already know what they are going to do when they decide what they are going to do with the #1 pick (assuming they get it). If they trade it, we know what they are doing. If they keep it, we won't know Fields fate until draft day. I don't think they will let the decision go to the 5th year option decision date.

That is Fields' fatal flaw right now. I think his internal clock is messed up from all the sacks and hits he has taken. He bails on plays a split second early, and if you think about it, it makes sense. He might see the guy open, but feels by the time he winds up to throw, he is gonna get hit, so it is easier or faster for him to tuck and run. Off topic question, how many opening drive TDs have the Bears scored this year? Think of a number right now, then scroll down. v v v v v v v If you scrolled down, the answer is in the quote. v v v v

Oh man, very sorry to hear that. Sending prayers to you, your wife and your entire family. That is not easy. I hope she wins that battle and comes out cancer free.

Anyone have concerns about Poles' teams' evaluation of college WRs? He now has drafted Velus Jones and Tyler Scott in back to back drafts. Velus is clearly not an NFL WR. Scott is 17th for rookie WRs in yards. WRs that were drafted after him with more production include: Puka Nacua (leads all rookies), Demario Douglas 36-410, Dontayvion Wicks 20-331, and Trey Palmer 25-227. Scott has 10-81 yards on 20 targets (50% catch rate), 1 drop, and 1 fumble lost. I will give Scott another year, as he was a 4th rounder, but he really hasn't shown any specific trait or area of the game that he is good in. If Poles went WR instead of Pickens at the first pick in the 3rd, he could've had Tank Dell (47-709), Josh Downs (48-566), Michael Wilson (28-435), or Jalin Hyatt (17-330). All of these guys were in our mock drafts around that pick before the draft. A funny connection between Jones and Scott. They both have been on the Adam Rank Podcast in their rookie years. So is this a Rank Curse?

Part of Fields getting the ball out also has to do with the drop back. I think they messed him up with the opposite foot thing, but I could be wrong. It just feels like even when he is at his back foot, he is not ready to throw. I have also noticed him drifting, maybe he has done that all along, but I have noticed it more recently. Another factor is play design. I don't know who designed the plays for the Bears offense, but a lot of them actually make things worse/harder. Outside of crazy long down and distances, there should be a short and intermediate target, and an outlet on every play. Depending on the formation, you might have multiple of some routes and even some deep ones. With that said, just based on physics, the shorter routes will come open first unless there is some type of crossing route that is designed to go all the way across the field. Preferably, you would also like the route concepts to come open right to left or left to right, or center and out to one side (normally with boot action). With Getsy, I don't see that enough. Watching the all-22, a high percentage of routes look like they are timed for the same timing. Meaning if the QB looks at #2, by the time he looks at #3, it's too late. I am not trying to absolve JF1, but there are issues with the offense that are not helping Justin at all. I have a feeling that they are telling him not to throw over the middle unless you absolutely know you can make the throw because majority of the INTs come off balls to the MoF. I could be wrong, but it feels like that. Go back and watch the PIT game from his rookie year. The speed of the drop back, the timing, it was all there. If not for one of the more BS penalties of all-time, the Bears win that game (Marsh penalty after Correnti hip checked him).

Last 6 + Streak + QB: MIN 4-2 (L2) - Dobbs GB 3-3 (W2) - Love LAR 3-3 (W2) - Stafford CHI 3-3 (W1) - Fields ATL 2-4 (W1) - Ridder SEA 2-4 (L3) - Smith NO 2-4 (L3) - Carr TB 1-5 (L2) - Mayfield Outside of Stafford, do any of the other QBs scare you?

There are only two viable playoff scenarios, win-out, which actually gives the Bears a great chance of making the playoffs. The only way 9-8 doesn't make it is if two of the teams (MIN, SEA, GB, LAR, TB, and ATL or NO) get hot and wins games they are not expected to win. ATL, NO, and TB are all in a race for the Division, and the odds are that the Div Champ will be the only team to make it from that division. That leaves MIN, SEA, GB, and LAR. SEA has a brutal schedule and may not survive the next few games. LAR has the 2nd toughest schedule and the Bears own a tie-breaker against them. So unless either of those teams go completely against what they have been doing, they may not be a concern come Week 18 So it seems that the playoffs are really going to come down to MIN and GB for the Bears. MIN has DET,GB, DET to finish their season. If DET can beat MIN twice, then the GB game might not even matter. GB basically starts their own playoffs Week 17 against MIN, then Week 18 against the Bears. They will more than likely go into Week 17 at 8-7 assuming they beat TB. If they beat TB they have to split MIN/CHI. If they lose to TB, they need to win their last 2 against MIN and CHI. If the Bears can get to Week 18 no worse than 7-9, there is a chance they could still get in with a win against GB. Obviously going in at 8-8 would be optimal, but anything less than 7-9, and this game will have a lot less meaning because more than likely GB will still be in the playoff picture as well.

Seattle lost to Dallas on TNF to fall to 6-6 and now in the 7th seed, MIN moves up to the 6th seed based on tie breakers. So both the 6th and 7th seeds are now 6-6, and the Bears at 4-8 with 5 games remaining. Seattle now has to play SF and PHI in the next two weeks. Like I said above, they will more than likely be 6-8 after that week. With 2 wins after the bye, the Bears could be tied with them at 6-8, which would've been unfathomable 3 weeks ago when SEA was 6-3 and the Bears were 2-7 with Bagent at QB. Due to the playoff implications, a home game, division opponent, the ending of the last time they played, and a bye, this Detroit game coming up may be the most important game for Flus, Getsy, and Fields, and one of the most impactful for the franchise in the last few years.

This made me think of this song for some reason:

So looking at the current roster and contracts, the Bears have a very solid core, and look to add 5-6 more high end pieces to it this offseason. If they trade a top pick, it will be even more. Right now I am going to assume they pick up 5 impact players: Impact draft picks: 3 (2x 1st rounders, 3rd rounder) Expected bigger FA acquisitions: 2 So if the Bears run it back with Fields on his 4th year, here is where I think they need to upgrade or fill in the core of the team (top 35). The bottom 20 of the roster are very fluid, and would be filled with 4th Round to UDFA and 1-year vet deals. On offense, Center, WR2/3, and TE2 are the most glaring needs. Even if they extend Mooney, he looks more like a WR3 nowadays. Now that the Bears signed Kmet to a deal, they need a rookie to backfill him in 3-4 years. Match a vet contract with a rookie deal. Center may be the biggest need on the team though. Offense: Fields/Bagent Herbert/Foreman/Johnson Kmet/FA or Rookie Jones, Jenkins, Patrick/FA or Rookie, Davis, Wright Moore, FA or Rookie, Scott, ESB If the Bears extend Johnson, the defense looks intact for next year minus Edge and FS. Only two holes really. Defense: Sweat, Billings/Pickens, Dexter, Walker/FA or Rookie Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell Johnson, Stevenson/Smith, Gordon, Brisker, FA or Rookie Expected cuts and cap savings: Jackson - $12.5M (has never been the same dude since injury in late 2018 really), the other option here is to restructure his deal Whitehair - $9.1M (dude has been a warrior in the trenches and one of the longest tenured Bears, but he is not worth $13.5M) $82.4M + $21.6 = $104M (biggest cap space in NFL currently is $100M - TEN). Cutting these two would give the Bears the most with that roster above. That looks really solid. They could extend guys like Johnson, Santos, Edwards, and even consider Mooney while still signing 2-3 impact FAs. Other possible cuts: DeMarcus Walker - $4.5M (has been serviceable, but if you need the cap space to bring a guy like Chase Young in to pair with Sweat, you cut Walker for the roster spot and cap savings) Travis Homer - $1.9M (has hardly played, has been horrible on offense and below average on ST, PFF has him as the worst player on the team - 37.9 grade) Velus Jones - $918K - It is not a huge cap savings, but it would cover a vet minimum deal and roster spot. This guy is terrible at just about everything but running straight and photo bombing teammates inadvertently. The worst 3 players on offense according to PFF are Homer, Whitehair, and Tonyan, and Blackwell, Robinson, and Ngakoue on defense. Homer, Whitehair, and Robinson are the only 3 under contract for 2024. Cutting the fat at the bottom and adding at the top to push the depth charts down is the best path to sustained success. If they went into 2024 without those 6 they would raise their floor considerably.