adam

Sometimes it's the no-brainers that are the best moves too. Don't overthink it. Don't try to be the smartest guy in the room (Trubisky over Watson), Shaheen in the 2nd. The UDFAs are a huge part of the scouting process too like you said, and I have liked what they have tried to do there as well.

It is night and day. Williams is a natural thrower. Fields always felt like a super athlete trying to play QB. It is not natural for him. Now entering his 4th season in the NFL, he still is somewhat robotic. That doesn't even account for the actual delayed release which gets worse with the hitch. Watching a lot of Williams tape, when he makes the decision to throw the ball, it is on the target almost immediately, regardless of his body position/angle, etc. It is pretty impressive to watch. However, most of the time, he is just dropping back and throwing the ball in rhythm. For a baseball analogy, Williams is a guy that is a technician, 5-6 different pitches, with all kinds of variations and arm angles. Fields is the flamethrower that has two pitches a fastball and curve. It is either feast or famine with him.

The whole narrative about a decline in Williams' performance in 2023 is way overblown. He only threw 5 INTs all season and 3 came in one game (against ND). So outside of that game his INT% was 0.57% which is actually insanely low. He had a 1.0% INT in 2022. For the season in 2023, his INT% was 1.3%, which is still elite. So did he force 5 balls trying to make a play, yes he did, but if that is the worst, I will take it every day and twice on Sunday. Also, his raw numbers were slightly down from his Heisman season, but there were two factors, one he played in two fewer games, and two, the team around him was far inferior to the team in 2022. The crazy thing is, even though he had less opportunities, he made the most of them with a better Comp% 68.6% and Y/A at 9.4, both career highs. He also rushed for 11 TDs in 2023 which gets overlooked because he wasn't a running QB like Daniels.

The title is funny "Scouting Staff praise their own decisions" I would hope the scouts are happy with the picks that they recommended to the leadership. Also, with Williams and Odunze no brainers, there were really only 3 picks that took any type of "scouting" and technically Taylor being the best punter in the nation didn't take a lot of effort to figure out. So it really came down to Kiran and Booker.

Ogbah would be a nice vet addition.

I hate being overly optimistic, but man it is hard to see anything less than 4,200 passing yards. This is 4,400: Moore - 1,000, Allen - 900, Odunze - 700, Kmet - 600, Everett - 400, Swift - 300, Scott - 200, All Others - 300 (Herbert and Roschon had over 300 last year). That is also 364 fewer yards for Moore, 343 fewer for Allen, 119 fewer for Kmet, and then normal projections for the others. No crazy numbers and no career highs.

I love the scream when he walked out, that was all of us.

There are a whole bunch of outcomes for this season. Our fanbase is so tainted towards bad QB play that even mentioned 4K passing yards seems like a joke. However, there are probably better odds that Williams hits 4K than throwing for less than 3500 (unless injury related).

They said the draft is defensive heavy next year, which would play right into the Bears hands. Get Offense this year, defense next year, and cook for ages.

My assumption is they bring in a vet for DT and Edge to fill out the rotation for this season, then in the 2025 draft, get a 3T, Edge, and IOL in the first two rounds and a rookie Center by the 4th.

With 3 picks in the first 2 rounds in 2025, I feel like they get a Blue Chip Edge, DT, and G while still improving other spots via free agency. I also think there is still a few moves left to be made, and don't be surprised if the Bears are buyers at the trade deadline this year.

I also go back to looking at what other teams' fans and outside media has been saying. Once they got Allen and Odunze, now I see them 2 and Moore on best WR trio graphics. I also see Williams, Swift, Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet on best offense graphics. The Bears having a top 10 defense is already a thing as they played like a top 5 unit the last 2 months of the season. To me, the only issue is going to be there will be too many guys open. Williams is going to have to decide on which open receiver he wants to throw to.

It really feels like 11-12 wins with 5-6 losses is absolutely realistic, which is hard to fathom as a Bears fan.

I see what you did there. Also remember Caleb has never had a supporting cast like this in his life. I know the competition will be the toughest he has ever seen, but I think the supporting cast outweighs the difference. What team actually concerns you from the schedule with Caleb at QB? Division games are always different, so here are the non-Division games: HOME Los Angeles Rams - without Donald, this is a completely different team/defense Seattle Seahawks - with new coaching staff, this team is a big question mark Jacksonville Jaguars - they never took off as many expected them to, Lawrence going into his 4th season and is good but not great Tennessee Titans - No QB and no Henry, enjoy 4-6 wins annually Carolina Panthers - They might win 3-4 games this year New England Patriots - This team was terrible and now with Maye who is still learning, Year 1 of their rebuild AWAY Arizona Cardinals - Even after adding MHJ, this is still a bad team that feels like they are in the middle of rebuild but still have an expensive QB they don't want San Francisco 49ers - They are running out of time with overpriced vets, now with a year of tape on Purdy. Still the team to beat in the NFC, but not scary. Houston Texans - This may be the game of the year and a future Super Bowl matchup in the making. I like both teams, but teams now have tape on Stroud. He seemed to sneak up on teams who were not prepared. Indianapolis Colts - This always feels like a slightly above average team, but without a QB Washington Commanders - This team reminds me of NE for the NFC. How many hits can Daniels take? Every hit is like the Johnny Knox injury So out of those 11 teams/games, SF and HOU are the only real challenges and mainly because they are good teams on the road. Outside of those two games, every other game should be considered winnable where the line favors the Bears or it is within a FG as the underdog. Against HOU and SF, the line will probably be +6 or 7.

Yeah, and from listening to Jaylon, the defense and secondary can't wait for the challenge, which will also make them better. Iron sharps iron is a real thing. You're correct, it's exponential for sure, and the QB is the biggest exponentialator! As good as Fields was with his deep ball or escaping sure sacks, everything else was lackluster, which really neutered the offense. If those areas are just average, and Williams can just stay on time, these WRs are going to eat. Odunze is drawing CB3 every game. Just go look up the Bears opponents and find their CB3's PFF Grade. Basically, it is going to be Odunze against Kindle Vildor every week. It is going to be comical. To compensate, teams will have to have a light box, so get ready for Swift, Herbert, and Roschon to cook on the ground. If the offense can score, then the defense will be playing against a more predictable opponent offense, which will make the defense better. Then if we actually have a real punter who can pin opponents inside the 20 consistently, I can't see how this is not a top 10 team in the NFL, and that is being somewhat "safe".

or the Gillotine

Makes sense.

Oh cool, I didn't know that. Yeah, they are obviously historical averages, and mean nothing, but over time, on average, teams fall into those buckets. So if we just apply the same historical data to the NFC North, that is what it looks like. It does not take into account for those external things, but it also doesn't take into account Williams playing at a high level, which if that happens, this team is going to be really hard to beat.

Kelce has two more years, they will probably go all in for the next two, then do a soft reboot. The first step is the Division, then beating SF. My hope was win the division this year, then beat SF next year, then Super Bowl wins from 2026-2034.

It was high and low range, with the average being the most likely numbers. We are so skewed in Chicago having decades of bad QB play that even saying Williams should hit 4K passing yards with the group he has comes off as being a homer. I just say why not? If Andrew Luck can do it with the group he had in Indy, 4K passing yards with 17 games should not be an issue for Williams. Look at Luck's rookie numbers and his top 3 WR, 2 TE, and 2 RBs. His best player was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne. His TEs and RBs were laughable. Andrew Luck 339-627, 54.1%, 4374 yds, 23 TD, 18 INT Reggie Wayne (34) - 106-1355 Donnie Avery (28) - 60-781 TY Hilton (23) - 50-861 Dwayne Allen (22) - 45-521 Coby Fleener (24) - 26-281 Vick Ballard (22) - 211-814 yds / 17-152 Donald Brown (25) - 108-417 yds / 9-93 Moore, Allen, Odunze, with Kmet and Everett, and Swift plus Herbert make the Indy group look like the little league.

Seeing what Shedeur Sanders is doing, I really can't believe all the BS that came out about Williams before the draft. Most of it was bogus and media generated. I am glad Poles didn't waver. Also, remember all the talk about Carl Williams. Have you seen even a single quote or interview with him this offseason? Compare that to Lavar Ball. Again, another nothing burger. This kid is legit and the real deal. Will he have bad games, sure, rookie issues, absolutely, but he is still going to be really good, if not great. No one cared when the Bears drafted Trubisky, actually, we were ridiculed from day 1. Not many people cared about Fields being the 4th QB taken, and outside of his houdini acts, he was never a big threat in the passing game. However, this time, it is different, other team's fanbases are in full denial/cope mode, and I am here for it. This is going to be a fun and magical season, I can't wait for Week 1.

Those are not my numbers, that is what OTC came up with after reviewing previous season outcomes based on last year's records and the follow year's draft picks. It may not occur because of external factors (injuries, weather, COVID-24, etc), but those numbers are factual based on the information provided.

As long as Williams stays healthy, it's hard for me to see him doing any worse than what Geno Smith did last year, who averaged 241 yds per game, had 20 TDs and 9 INTs. That feels like the floor for Williams. Taking some other recent QBs into account, like Stroud and Love, this seems like Williams most likely ranges for various stats: Completions: [LOW 310 | AVG 338 | HIGH 375] Attempts: [LOW 490 | AVG 526 | HIGH 580] Comp%: [ LOW 62.5% | AVG 64.3% | HIGH 65.2%] Yards: [LOW 3620 | AVG 3964 | HIGH 4284] TD: [LOW 20 | AVG 25 | HIGH 32] INT: [LOW 5 | AVG 8 | HIGH 12] So the most probable numbers would be 338-526, 64.3%, 3,964 yds, 25 TD, 8 INT If Williams hit that number of passing yards, it would be the 6th best all-time for a rookie QB. 25 TDs would be 5th, only 8 INTs would be 5th best, and 64.3% would be 6th. So hit mean set of numbers put him between 5th and 6th all-time for a rookie. With the upgraded supporting cast, I think he exceeds those numbers in every category. I think he falls in between the average numbers and high numbers for al the stats.

Odunze could've came out last year and would've been the #1 WR selected. The Bears luck out and he stays in school, and then ATL drafts a 36 year old QB the pick ahead of the Bears. Then to have Odunze catching passes from Williams with Allen and Moore BEFORE the draft is some Mandela Effect kind of stuff. The Bears have never had this kind of luck before. I think the curse of Javon Wims is over.

Part of it comes down to the exchange. If you read articles from 2022, Williams had issues with shotgun snaps. So even though he is a plus blocker, if he has issues with snaps, it sort of negates some of the blocking advantages. So what I meant was to see which Center Williams felt better with, in terms of snaps, and blocking assignments. You won't really know until you get into the OTAs.