adam

Oh yeah, I was trying to keep it simple for comparison sake. As you move down, you are going to accumulate a ton more draft capital.

As Mongo said, 1 slot in this top 10 is huge. It might be the difference between getting Odunze or Bowers or missing out on both by one pick.

Yeah, you are spot on, for Option 2 and 3, I added #38 from TEN for Fields as a ballpark draft slot: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams + #38 -> (#1) (Williams + Center) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #38 + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + WR2 + Center + New OT)

Is it me, or are these the main 3 options for Poles? Obviously there can be more trades but with just a single trade down with WAS, these seem like the paths Poles can go. Pick #9 is in play for all options so it is omitted, these are the differences in each route: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams (#1) (Williams) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + Center + New OT)

I am not saying money is a problem, but it is a huge consideration, and in order to have sustained success, you have to look out and plan 3-5 years out. If every contract was a one year deal, sure no problem, but some contracts are 4-5 years. Poles obviously has a road map and the entire path is predicated on players and their contracts. I honestly think Poles never envisioned being in this position. He was planning on going into Year 3 with Fields as QB in his 4th season with 2x new 1st round draft picks on the roster. Getting the #1 overall pick has changed things. Now he has two of the best options a GM can have. Keep rolling with the current QB and load up on picks or roll the dice, draft a new QB and reset the QB timeline. Drafting a rookie QB does buy him 3 years of a small QB cap hit. If he goes with Fields, he knows that he has to pay that big money 3 years sooner (in 2026) but would have more players on rookie deals. He can make it work either way.

What if ATL was willing to do something along these lines: 1. CHI gets #8, #43, #79 2. ATL gets #9, Justin Fields The difference in the picks and slot would equal Pick #29 (late first rounder) So the Bears move up one slot to #8, then get ATL's 2nd rounder and their 2nd 3rd Rounder. Atlanta moves down one slot in the first and gets Justin Fields. They got #79 for Calvin Ridley, so basically that plus their 2nd rounder (#43) and one slot in the first round for Fields. That would gives the Bears #1, #8, #43, #75, and #79 in the first 3 rounds. Atlanta would have #9, Fields, and #74

I think Fields situation is going to come down to financials, that will be the trigger. If the Bears tag or resign JJ, even with cuts of Whitehair and Jackson, they would be up against the cap with a Fields pay raise. So basically the Bears would have to run this back with no new FAs other than vet minimum roster fillers and new rookies. It is doable, but you need to stock up on early picks to replace your expensive vets. The Chiefs cap is comical next year. Mahomes is $57M, Thuney is $26M, Taylor is $24M, Kelce is $15M, Reid is $14M, MVS is $14M, and Omenihu is $11M. No other player is over $5M. So basically, the new framework with the outrageous QB salaries is $50M QB, 2x players in the $20M range, then 4-5 in the $10M range, then every other player on a rookie deal or making under $5M. The Bears ironically have a similar structure already, just without the QB salary, Sweat and Edmunds - $20M, Moore, Kmet, and Davis - $10M, and we are assuming JJ comes in under Edmunds but over Moore. That would be 6 non-QBs making over $10M just like the Chiefs. SF has low QB contract structure with 10 over $10M (1 even over $30M), but don't have to pay a QB right now. That is the other model. If the Bears don't make a trade before FA opens, but start signing 2-3 guys to $10M deals, we sort of know which way they are going because they can't afford those guys if Fields is going to get paid. 6-7 guys $10M or more = big QB contract 10-11 guys $10M or more = small QB contract

I doubt he would command anything beyond a late first, so it looks like the only two realistic options would be: ARZ - 27th, it's their 2nd first rounder, and they pick again at 35. PIT - 20th, could decide to move off Pickett/Rudolph/Trubisky, already a playoff team, just need a better QB.

I did add some of that for the first few picks, but not as much from 6->

Honestly, Nate Tice is pretty good. He has been critical of Fields too, and by this mock, thinks Maye is the way to go. I don't necessarily agree going Maye at #1 when the entire metaverse knows WAS would love Williams. Make them work for it. This could be the whole smoke screen they are doing right now with Williams, who knows. I am just not counting out Maye as I don't want to have the same feeling I had when I heard Trubisky's name, that was such a disappointment. The good thing is Maye had a lot more reps than both Trubisky and Fields in college and is only a RS Sophomore, is only 21 and would be just turning 22 before the start of the season. This is pretty cool to read about Maye: "Maye’s arm talent gives his offense access to the entire field. His work in the quick passing game provides his receiving options the opportunity to gain yards after the catch. Maye’s touch and arc on passes are impressive. He does a good job layering passes over the middle of the field underneath defenders." Well crap, these sites has him as QB1: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10089376-drake-maye-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-unc-qb https://www.profootballnetwork.com/drake-maye-draft-scouting-2024/

Just another data point, Nate Tice (son of Mike Tice) does a lot of player analysis, and last year he like Stroud going #1 as his #1 rated QB. This year, he says Maye is the clearcut #1. In his latest mock, he has the Bears taking Drake Maye at #1: https://sports.yahoo.com/2024-nfl-draft-top-10-mock-has-jayden-daniels-going-to-patriots-and-3-other-qbs-make-big-board-of-40-prospects-including-jj-mccarthy-153609292.html This is going to instantly bring up Trubisky comparisons, which as a fan, are hard for me to separate.

1 = 2+2nd+late 3rd or early 4th+future 1st 1 = 3+2nd+ early 3rd+future 1st 1 = 4+2nd+ future 2nd+future 1st 1 = 5+2nd+ future 2nd+future 1st+4th rounder 1 = 6+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st and blue chip vet 1 = 7+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st + blue chip vet + 4th rounder 1 = 8+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st + blue chip vet + 3rd rounder Last year Bears went 1 = 9 +2nd (61) + future 1st + blue chip vet (Moore) + future 2nd rounder

Atlanta at 2? Washington at 2 or Atlanta at 8? OK, I am assuming WAS, just a typo. Going off the more current trade value chart, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #40 is worth 149, and #94 is worth 41 = 907 + 2025 1st (121 = lose 1 round of value, average pick value) So 1000 (CHI) < 1028 (WAS) So I would say that would make sense. Where are you getting #94 from? That would be the 3rd to last pick in the 3rd round before comp picks. I think WAS has #101 in the 3rd from SF for Chase Young. That would knock the trade above down to 1021.

SEA FAs of interest: 1. Evan Brown, C, 28, played 91.3% of snaps 2. Noah Fant, TE, 54.6% 3. Leonard Williams, DL, 30, 76.2% 4. Damien Lewis, G, 27, 88.6% CAR FAs of interest: 1. Brian Burns, Edge, 26, played 77.2% of snaps 2. DJ Chark, WR, 28, 67.1% 3. Jeremy Chinn, S, 26, 27.1%

It depends if the Bears want to use draft capital or cap on that position. With both Herbert and Johnson still on rookie deals, they may go FA. Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler could be options. Now that the Bears have Waldron and Brown, I am going to look for FAs from Seattle and Carolina as those two would be intimately knowledgeable about guys from those teams.

Absolutely, just posting as they come in, there will be a lot of flip flopping. Here is George Kittle giving a vote of confidence towards Fields:

I think bringing in Warren was the game changer, there is a different level of separation than previously existed.

Kizer had 695 passing attempts and only played football for 2 seasons. That was all hype because of Notre Dame. For college he even had a pedestrian TD:INT ratio of 47-19 and averaged only 232 yds/g. That translates to 180 some yards per game in the NFL and fringe NFL backup, especially with so few reps in college. He had bust written all over him.

Lol, you know you are there when you are trying to determine what alcohol or drink "did it to you".

That's the thing. Aikman should've never been a HoFer, he never was an All-Pro, never won the MVP, and led only 1 4QC in 15 playoff games. His career stats are terrible, in 165 starts: 199 Y/G, 165 TD, 141 INT and a QB Rating of 81.6. He was on one of the most stacked teams of all time. He started his career 0-11 his rookie year. Even in his best season, he would fall 300+ yards short of the Bears Franchise record in a season. What is kind of funny is, he had Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Emmitt and Aikman never passed for over 3,500 yards. That Dallas team was so odd. They had double digit wins for 6 years straight from 1991 to 1996, yet their best record was 13-3. Having the best O-Line in football, one of the top 5 RBs of all-time and a top 10 Receiving Corps sure helps.

and on Flus lol.

Just posting info as it comes in. Take it for what it is worth:

My Top 15 Bears Big Board (with notes): 1. Caleb Williams, QB (no-brainer, if Bears are drafting #1, you pick CW) 2. Marvin Harrison Jr, WR (if the Bears trade down and they are not drafting a QB, MHJ has to be #1 on their big board) 3. Drake Maye, QB (If they Bears trade down and are still looking for a QB, he would be the pick over MHJ) 4. Malik Nabers, WR (If the Bears trade down and the top 3 are gone, it's between him and Brock Bowers for me, but WR2 is such a hole) 5. Brock Bowers, TE (He is neck and neck with Nabers, I may switch this after the combine) 6. Rome Odunze, WR (If the top 5 are gone, you take Odunze) 7. Dallas Turner, Edge (When those top 6 are gone with maybe Daniels, I could see the Bears moving back, but if available, I would go Turner) 8. Laiatu Latu, Edge (If Turner is gone, Latu is next) 9. Joe Alt, OT (Right now he is my first pick at OT, which is more of a luxury pick as an upgrade, not filling a huge hole) 10. Jared Verse, Edge (If the other 2 Edge are gone, after Alt, I would go back to fill the Edge need with BPA) 11. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT (If the 3x Edge are gone and Alt, then it is Fashanu time) 12. JerZhan Newton, DL (He would be my first DT right here, depending on combine, he may move up) 13. J.C. Lathan, OT (Last OT before the skill level drops off a little, would drop if JJ is not signed as need for CB would be greater) 14. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Dependent on JJ status, but more of a luxury pick if JJ is signed, he may go up if JJ is not signed, or down if he is) 15. Brian Thomas Jr, WR (He would jump ahead of McKinstry if JJ is signed, but not higher as this time. This is through a Bears lens assuming the guys above them are gone. I am really trying to stick to QB, WR, TE, Edge, DL but it's hard when their are elite talents at OT and CB sitting there. With 2 picks, the Bears can maybe afford to go with a luxury pick at OT (sliding Jones to swing tackle) or CB and having him compete with Stevenson or filling JJs spot. Did I miss anyone? Thoughts?

Here is my take on that. If you have 3+ teams offering you massive hauls for #1, you keep the pick. That many teams are reinforcing their belief in Williams. If you only have Washington, or maybe one other desperate team, then you take the best offer and trade down for the haul because just because CAR was willing to offer a haul for Bryce Young doesn't mean he was worth that much. So simply put: 1. Draft Williams if 3+ teams are offering massive hauls. 2. Trade #1 pick for haul if only one or two teams have offers in for #1. Then whatever they do next will be determined by what they did first. I think if they trade the #1 pick, and it's to WAS, and they only move to #2. There is a chance that Poles will trade back a 2nd time (if they are rolling with JF1) and end up with multiple 2nd rounders in 2024, and multiple 1sts in 2025. That would be insane. 3 2025 1st rounders!

There really is a lot of potential, but at the end of the day, draft capital is just that, capital. Unless whatever you use it on has a high Return on Investment, then it's a wash. So it does give Poles more bullets, but he can't miss on too many. I ultimately think his experience with Mahomes, then Fields will give him one of the best perspectives in the game about the QB position going forward. Also, Cunningham was with Hurts and then got to see Fields. Those are two unique experiences but provide a common data point in Fields. With all of that, I think they know which way they are going unless an nuclear offer comes in.