adam

for positional value, it is more than likely a 2nd rounder, probably within the top 50.

Carter would be a huge risk. That just doesn't seem like the type of character guys they are bringing in.

One of the amusing things to do sometimes is to see what some other teams have added this offseason so far. The Packers have added a Long Snapper and backup Safety/Special Teamer. That's it. However, they lost Lowry and Reed from the DL, and Lazard and Tonyan on offense, while Amos, Cobb, Crosby, and Lewis (TE) are all still UFAs, AND they still have the Rodgers thing hanging over their heads. Rodgers is $31M against the cap now, and a trade would bump it up to $40M in dead money, which would leave them about $8M in cap space for any free agents, resignings, and in-season operating money (to sign players mid-season). They were an 8-win team with Rodgers, so with Love and a lesser team? Maybe 6 wins?

Yeah, I think it will be Wilson (if he is there, but highly doubtful), Johnson Jr, Jones, or Van Ness. Nolan Smith wouldn't shock me either. If all 4 of these guys are still on the board at 9, I would love a trade down to 11 or 12, net an early 3rd rounder and still get one of those 4 would be epic masterclass by Poles. Then you would be looking at 5 picks in the top 75 and 6 within the top 103. The wild cards are going to be the top 2 CBs. If one of them is there at 9. For me, that would be a tough sell after going DB, DB in the first two picks last year. The D-Line is BAD right now, and based off some articles, Walker is more of a 3T than a DE, so Edge is bare right now. Going off last year's opening day roster, the biggest weaknesses on the team are at RT (Borom), DE (Gipson), DE (Robinson), CB (Vildor), and DT(Jones). Individually, which player is the worst of the bunch? I almost have to say Vildor, no? Going off PFF grades, Borom is the best, followed by Vildor. Gipson, Robinson, and Jones were terrible (in the 40s for PFF grades.

He releases his full list "The Beast" in the next week or so, but here is his top 100: https://theathletic.com/4307966/2023/03/29/nfl-draft-2023-prospect-rankings-board/ I really like his assessments. If you have access, each player has a write up. His top 10 is: Anderson, Young, Carter, Gonzalez, Stroud, Skoronski, Robinson, Wilson, Witherspoon, and Van Ness. Obviously that won't be the draft, order, so the Bears will have an opportunity to get one of those guys at #9 (or someone outside of the top 10). In his top 50, there are 10 Edge, 7 WR, 7 CB, 5 OT, 4 TE, 4 QB, 4 DT, 3 OG, 2 LB, 2 RB, 1 OC, 1 S So the Bears can easily get a top 50 player in 4 different positions. The way the numbers look, I think they will wait on Edge until the 2nd or 3rd round. Same with WR and CB. So they will probably go OT or DT with #9, then with the next 3 go: Edge, CB, (DT/OT), or WR.

I like his vids, he is just super optimistic. I have no issues with that though.

That is a good point, and this will all come down to how they see Jones.

Yes, my list is at least 2 of the defenders listed and one of the OL. Get 3 of those guys and I will feel a million times better heading into the draft. Ya-Sin, CB Clark, Edge Ngakoue, Edge Robinson, IDL Ioannidis, IDL Ford, IDL Wynn, RT Fleming, RT McGovern, C Risner, G

So if you count Walker as a starting DE, then wouldn't the other DE be a gap? There are actual holes at DE, DT, CB, and RT.

I am just saying Walker, Billings, Jones, Gipson is the worst DLine in the league. Not one of those guys is a starter on pretty much any other team. Those are all good rotational guys, but none are starters. Walker is probably the closest, so we still need 3 starters.

I was assuming one of the 2nd rounders, or the 3rd rounder could be used on a starting CB. My hope is OL, DL, Edge, CB are addressed in the first 4 picks (in any order). I could also see them doubling up at DT or OL (with OT and C) which would be ok too.

I am thinking it will look like this at 9 with 4 QBs gone, Anderson, Wilson, and one of the CBs gone. Obviously Anderson, Wilson are 1-2, then I think it will go in this order for the Bears: A. Jalen Carter DT - This one is still up to debate for me, but I think someone will take him before 9. B. Paris Johnson OT - Seems to be the consensus #1 OL now C. Broderick Jones OT - Some are saying he would be a better fit for the Bears? D. Peter Skoronski OT - Best tape, but them arms. No shame sliding him in to G if he is that good. E. Witherspoon/Gonzalez/Porter Jr CB - The only way this occurs is if only 2 QBs go in the top 8 (not happening). F. Murphy/Van Ness Edge F. Johnston/Smith-Njigba WR Anderson, Wilson, Stroud, and Young are definitely gone before 9. That leaves Levis and Richardson and the list above for 4 slots before the Bears. If 2 go to the QBs, that means only 2 players from A-E will be off the list when the Bears pick. I doubt they ever get past Skoronski on the list. So it will ultimately come down to the best available of these 4: A. Jalen Carter DT - This one is still up to debate for me, but I think someone will take him before 9. B. Paris Johnson OT - Seems to be the consensus #1 OL now C. Broderick Jones OT - Some are saying he would be a better fit for the Bears? D. Peter Skoronski OT - Best tape, but them arms. No shame sliding him in to G if he is that good.

Right, but what if OL or DL never go on discount? Do you just continually say we are not going to spend there just for principle? If he continues on the same course, the Bears are drafting a CB in the 1st, LB and S in the 2nd, because those will be the highest rated players available at those picks. At this point, the Bears still could use at least 3 more on the DL and at least 2 more on the OL.

Poles roster construction has been almost backwards. Did the secondary last year with Brisker/Gordon, now doing LB Corps, did Claypool and now Moore for WRs, but the trenches? We still need some dudes on both sides of the ball, otherwise the LBs and DBs will be useless.

At this point, the Bears still need to address DT, DE, OT, and CB. If they can do that before the draft, that would allow them to go BPA the entire way. Right now the weak links as starters are RT1 (Borom?), CB2 (Vildor), DT1 (Jones), and DE2 (Gipson/Robinson). Would you agree those are the weakest starting slots? I am assuming Walker is DE1 and Gordon is NB1. I think QB, WR, TE, and RB on offense are good to go for starters. On defense, LB and S are locked in. That leaves the aforementioned spots. If those spots get addressed, what are the next set of weak spots? More OL? DT2, DE1?

$11M is the 26th most WR contract for AAV. If they believe he is a fringe WR1, then $11M is probably correct. JuJu just got $8.5M/multi-year deal and he seems to be more productive than Mooney. So $8.5-$11M seems like Mooney's range.

He was referring to the Vikings signing Davenport to a $8.5M deal. One guy thought that Poles could've paid more to get him. The other guy was saying he was crazy to think Poles would pay for a guy with that little production.

So Poles go Foreman and Tonyan for less than Monty. That is a pretty good deal. Same for LB, he basically got Edmunds, Edwards, and a 2nd rounder for a few million more than just Roquan. That is impressive. Now he needs to address the trenches. He can't go two years without getting some dudes in there.

I know, it is wild. I was really surprised to see him go to HOU in the first place. Dallas makes a lot of sense. They have a stacked WR room now.

Velus was high risk already with his age, but lack of production too is already two red flags. Even if he becomes a gadget player and regular KR, that is still a reach in the 3rd round imo.

Yeah, I am thinking Kmet would be the easiest, Claypool the least likely, and Johnson is going to be the toughest. Jackson and Whitehair definitely can save close to $10M if they need it.

Here are a few guys left, 30 or under: McGovern - C, 30yrs old Fleming - RT, 29 Smith, LT, 30 Ngakoue - Edge, 28 Ward - Edge, 29 Ford - IDL, 28 Ioannidis - IDL, 29

So here is the current estimated available cap for teams with over $10M in effective cap space. These teams are really the only ones that could sign a player to a decent contract without other cap restructuring. If you consider you need $5M for rookie pool and $5-10M for operating money for the year, The Bears, Falcons, and Packers are really the only teams with room to sign players to a deal that is over $7M AAV. There are still several players left like that. The Bears could sign 2 of them and still have the most cap space. So Poles is not done yet.

Brandon Cooks traded for the 10th time. Now to Dallas. It is wild how many draft picks he has gotten for the teams trading him.

3 down is HOU, 4 is NYJ, and 5 is NE. I doubt any of them are taking a QB there unless HOU goes Anderson at #2 and one of the top QBs drops. There is no scenario that I can see that yields an early to mid second rounder unless a team like SEA wants to move up from #20 and give up #37. I couldn't find a realistic trade partner that was far enough back to warrant a 2nd rounder but not so far back that the 2nd rounder wasn't in the 50s. WAS or PIT? Maybe, but what are they trading up for? I really think the Bears are locked in at #9, and the only way they get an earlier pick in the 2nd is by moving up using one of their current ones (#53+#104 = #43), something like that. Using one of their extra 5ths, they could get into the early 4th (#133+#148 = #109) but that is the best I can see for trade-ups.