Plan for 2023 run (soft reboot)

[adam]

I was thinking that with the full organizational changeover that Poles is not going to go into 2022 expecting to win the SB. With the cap space vs the number of holes to fill coupled with the lack of a 1st rounder, he may stretch this out a little longer.

If he does plan to do this, he won't be signing any big-name FAs, will probably trade down in the draft, and will trade away assets to gain cap space and draft capital. 

The players that would mostly impact the 2023 cap are Mack, Quinn, Jackson, Whitehair, Goldman, Cohen, and Trevathan. The hope is you can move away from most of these guys before the start of next season via trade or cut. I figure Goldman and Cohen are cut candidates this year. Jackson and Trevathan could be post-June 1 cuts, and Mack, Quinn, and Whitehair would be trade candidates (as long as Poles didn't see them as key contributors in 2023-2025).

Another name to consider for a trade is Monty. He will be in the last year of his rookie deal and is more than likely not getting paid by the Bears in 2023. So do you trade him now and get something for him or roll the dice and hope he signs somewhere in 2023 so you get a comp pick in 2024? Depending on how they view Whitehair, he may be in a similar boat. Cody is going to have a $14M cap hit as an OG in 2023 (6th highest OG in the league). 

By start of next year, the Bears could potentially have over 20 key contributors playing on rookie deals: 2023 draft class (6), 2022 draft class (5), Fields, Jenkins, Borom, Herbert, Graham, Tonga, Kmet, Johnson, Gipson, and Mooney. As long as they keep drafting 4-5 key contributors a year, that number should stay around that level consistently. 

Thoughts?

[Mongo3451]

This is what I wanted last year, so better late than never.  I honestly believe a year of struggle as constant underdogs is good for the strength of a man.  Plus, a year of reset will put the team in a position to be faster.  

Once evaluations and players meetings are done, cut the ones that don't have the heart or production.  I personally don't care about the cap hit, because that should never define a roster.  The thought of paying a turd player an extra year because you don't want the cap hit is the opposite message you want to send your team.(That's why I hated Pace and liked Angelo)

We need six more blue chip players according to Polian, so how do we go from six to twelve?  Two of our six are on the wrong side of 30, so they won't be blue chippers by the time we call them part of the twelve, so I trade Mack and Quinn and hopethe young guys step up.  Our greatest need for blue chip players is on offense, so we build that first. That will help Fields grow into a serviceable starter and hopefully the superstar he can be.  You need 2 WR, 2 OL, QB and TE or RB to be studs to have a championship offense.  As of now, we have Monty.  For now keep him and draft another RB.  I like the idea of trading him before signing him to a big extension.  If Herbert and the rookie play well, go with them.

As you can see, we are going backwards on blue choppers.  Fields, Jenkins, Kmet, Herbert, Daniels, Gipson and Graham all have the ability to add their names to the list.  A big draft comes into play and we have a roster that's young, hungry and willing to compete next year.  Better cap situation will follow, then we can properly use free agency.  NO MORE TRADING AWAY PICKS!  Did I mention I hate Pace...😤

[Lucky Luciano]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Another name to consider for a trade is Monty. He will be in the last year of his rookie deal and is more than likely not getting paid by the Bears in 2023. So do you trade him now and get something for him or roll the dice and hope he signs somewhere in 2023 so you get a comp pick in 2024? Depending on how they view Whitehair, he may be in a similar boat. Cody i

Thoughts?

getting rid of our RB core would be a huge mistake. monty is a key player in any offense. he can run, block and catch. he is a tough runner to take down and moves the chains. dumping him would be like dumping neal anderson or even walter payton when their rookie contract was over. it makes no sense trying to fill this vacancy with a hopeful candidate through the draft. he is a key component for a new qb.

pay the man and move on to other positions of need.

[Stinger226]

At this point all we can do is take their word for it that they will try to win, so they will not be getting rid of any good players. When you try to trade older players, you usually are losing value. Monty will not get more than a 3rd round pick and he is still young. How they value our players will go along way to what they do. 

Key answers, who of our current team we keep.

On defense, need a 3T, MLB, 2 CBs and a SS. If they resign Blair Nichols-3-T, Ogletree-MLB, Graham can play , plays NCB, maybe they think Deon Bush can play SS? At worst they need 1= CB, 1=SS and another LB.

On offense, Jenkins and Borom can play and they resign Daniels. Add 1 OL. 2WRs and  a TE. They resign Jesse James. 

At this point we are not far away. 

In the draft they will bring in 2 starters, 2 that contribute. We are not that far away.

So off season, bring back Daniels, Jesse James, J. Grant, Nichols, Ogletree, D. Bush, DHC, Chirstian Jones. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

 I don't think we will see too much cutting or trading.  It just don't happen often in a tight cap structure. The NFL is also set up to reward teams to have players finish out contracts and reward comp picks when they move on.  So if the Bears cut a bunch of their top players, a team like GB/NE can sign them, not lose draft compensation, and improve their team.  Mack may take a pay cut to win a championship.   If there are any, it may be to a guy like Jackson who has under performed.  I think the cuts/trades will be minimal.  The Bears have some talent the coaches need to tap into and design schemes to fit their strengths.

[lemonej]

I think Tonga will not be a fit in a 4-3 and will not be with the team. I'm intrigued with the thought of Gipson putting his hand back in the dirt every down as well as Mario Edwards Jr and Robert Quinn tutoring them. Figuring out what to do with Mack, Nichols and Goldman is going to be key to this offseason imo.

[BearFan2000]

23 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

getting rid of our RB core would be a huge mistake. monty is a key player in any offense. he can run, block and catch. he is a tough runner to take down and moves the chains. dumping him would be like dumping neal anderson or even walter payton when their rookie contract was over. it makes no sense trying to fill this vacancy with a hopeful candidate through the draft. he is a key component for a new qb.

pay the man and move on to other positions of need.

I'd like to see us keep Monty as well, he brings more than on field production, the dude has leadership abilities and embodies the kind of character you want your team to have.  He will give 100% at all times, he fits the type of player both Poles and Eberflus want on our team.  I feel he's got a good chance to stick, and he may be willing to structure his contract to be team friendly to be a part of what we are trying to build here.  I really do like the one two punch of Monty and Herbert.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

 I feel he's got a good chance to stick, and he may be willing to structure his contract to be team friendly to be a part of what we are trying to build here.  I really do like the one two punch of Monty and Herbert.

Thought I heard not all that long ago that Monty wanted to stay a 'Bear for life' or something along those lines.  A guy like that, after going through what he did the last few years is a keeper.  And at one point Herbert looked all the part we needed as a backup when Monty was out.  Moreso than WIlliams even.  

[Stinger226]

Monty is under contract he's not going anywhere. They will let it play out. Tonga can play NT , which is part of this scheme. I think they let Goldman, and  Trevathan go. Blackson is still signed, he takes over the NT spot and Tonga backs him up. If they re-sign Nichols, he will be the 3-T. 

[Mongo3451]

10 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Monty is under contract he's not going anywhere. They will let it play out. Tonga can play NT , which is part of this scheme. I think they let Goldman, and  Trevathan go. Blackson is still signed, he takes over the NT spot and Tonga backs him up. If they re-sign Nichols, he will be the 3-T. 

Agreed on Monty. If we are offered a great trade for him, I would entertain it.  In the meantime, Herbert is capable to take over if something like that happens. I definitely look at trading Monty next year, especially if he is wanting a monster payday.  In today's NFL, running backs are disposable unless they are elite.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Agreed on Monty. If we are offered a great trade for him, I would entertain it.  In the meantime, Herbert is capable to take over if something like that happens. I definitely look at trading Monty next year, especially if he is wanting a monster payday.  In today's NFL, running backs are disposable unless they are elite.

This is Monty's 4th year, he is a UFA after this season so you can't trade him next year. That's why you have to consider trading him now, otherwise, your only hope is to get a comp pick for him depending on the FAs the Bears would acquire next offseason. 

The Bears have to plan for the 2023-2025 window now. That would be Fields Year 3-5. Who is on the team now that will be part of that run? That is the question for Monty. Since his contract is up this year, he will be looking for a deal similar to the other RBs that have gotten deals around $12M per year. I just don't see the Bears paying him that much.

This was his 2nd season with a YPC under 4. 3.8 this year and 3.7 his rookie year. Jordan Howard was traded to Philly after his 3rd year and his 3.7 YPC. Howard had 935 yards that season, Monty had 849 this season. The Bears got a 6th for Howard, could've been a 5th but Howard only played in 10 games for Philly that year and has never appeared in more than 7 games a year since.

So the options are to keep Monty for this year and let him walk after the 2022 season as a UFA and hope for a comp pick in 2024 (unlikely due to FA acquisitions in 2023), extend Monty thru the Fields window for $12M per year, or trade him now for a mid to late-round pick in the 2022 or 2023 draft.

I really feel the best option is to trade him now and recoup some draft capital for the 2022 draft. 

Thoughts?

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

There is zero chance I am giving Monty $12M a year. I don't know that I would give him half of that.  That said - I don't think Monty is getting that. He is a good, but not great running back who doesn't have that elite game-breaking skillset that gets paid.  I would suspect the market would value him similarly and he wouldn't get a big contract, which than means, if you are paying $5/$6M, that is probably okay when you have a rookie QB and have other needs to fill with draft picks, etc.  

But no - I am not giving Monty big money and I like Monty, he is perfectly good.  If new regime likes Herbert (and i liked enough of what I saw from him) and someone else was willing to give up a 3rd rounder for Monty - I am on board with that cause we need capital.  But I'm wrong guy cause I would be blowing up our roster on defensive side looking to claw back as many picks as possible while taking cap pain now to create massive flexibility.

I also probably would be dealing back with those picks (including getting some future picks) so you really start to build a real stockpile of assets that has you consistently operating from a full cupboard vs. a barren one.  I felt like Pace was always borrowing forward vs. building up a reserve that really gives you flexibility.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

This is Monty's 4th year, he is a UFA after this season so you can't trade him next year. That's why you have to consider trading him now, otherwise, your only hope is to get a comp pick for him depending on the FAs the Bears would acquire next offseason. 

The Bears have to plan for the 2023-2025 window now. That would be Fields Year 3-5. Who is on the team now that will be part of that run? That is the question for Monty. Since his contract is up this year, he will be looking for a deal similar to the other RBs that have gotten deals around $12M per year. I just don't see the Bears paying him that much.

This was his 2nd season with a YPC under 4. 3.8 this year and 3.7 his rookie year. Jordan Howard was traded to Philly after his 3rd year and his 3.7 YPC. Howard had 935 yards that season, Monty had 849 this season. The Bears got a 6th for Howard, could've been a 5th but Howard only played in 10 games for Philly that year and has never appeared in more than 7 games a year since.

So the options are to keep Monty for this year and let him walk after the 2022 season as a UFA and hope for a comp pick in 2024 (unlikely due to FA acquisitions in 2023), extend Monty thru the Fields window for $12M per year, or trade him now for a mid to late-round pick in the 2022 or 2023 draft.

I really feel the best option is to trade him now and recoup some draft capital for the 2022 draft. 

Thoughts?

 

Thank you for the correction.  I thought he had another year.  That being said, if we could get a couple of picks for him, I'd do it knowing Herbert can play.  He's not elite enough to pay over 10 mil/yr.

[adam]

Nyheim Hines is making $6.2M as an RB2, hell Cohen is making $5.7M and has yet to play on that contract. Interestingly enough, there is a huge gap between the top backs and everyone else. There are 8 backs making $12M or more per year (McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Cook, Henry, Chubb, Jones, and Mixon). Then only two backs are making between $6.5M and $11.9M (Gordon $8M, Barkley $7.8M). 

I can't see Monty taking RB2/Cohen money ~6-7M and I can't see the Bears paying him $12M. Maybe they can find a common number like $8M but that still seems high considering the other holes you have to fill. 

When I think of offensive value, it is QB is #1, then LT, then probably WR1 and the rest of the O-Line, then TE, WR2 and RB all in the last tier. The team should be putting most of their assets in QB, WR1, and the O-Line first. 

 

[Connorbear]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Thank you for the correction.  I thought he had another year.  That being said, if we could get a couple of picks for him, I'd do it knowing Herbert can play.  He's not elite enough to pay over 10 mil/yr.

As much as I hate to say it, I would trade Monty if we can get a low 3rd/early 4th for him. He's not worth 12 million a year.

Peace

[Stinger226]

This year will be different for Monty, I think with a better oline, and more efficient passing game , Monty has a banner year. If you look to GB, they resigned Aaron Jones at 12 mil a Year even with Dillion in the wings. They will offer him 8 mil a Year, and he will move on. I bet they draft a RB with their last pick.  Poles will be realistic with handing out big contracts. KC hasn't paid any RB big money, they just keep drafting new RBs that still produce. They won't be trading him,  they value the running game.but will take advantage of him being here.

[AZ54]

16 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

There is zero chance I am giving Monty $12M a year. I don't know that I would give him half of that.  That said - I don't think Monty is getting that. He is a good, but not great running back who doesn't have that elite game-breaking skillset that gets paid.  I would suspect the market would value him similarly and he wouldn't get a big contract, which than means, if you are paying $5/$6M, that is probably okay when you have a rookie QB and have other needs to fill with draft picks, etc.  

But no - I am not giving Monty big money and I like Monty, he is perfectly good.  If new regime likes Herbert (and i liked enough of what I saw from him) and someone else was willing to give up a 3rd rounder for Monty - I am on board with that cause we need capital.  But I'm wrong guy cause I would be blowing up our roster on defensive side looking to claw back as many picks as possible while taking cap pain now to create massive flexibility.

I also probably would be dealing back with those picks (including getting some future picks) so you really start to build a real stockpile of assets that has you consistently operating from a full cupboard vs. a barren one.  I felt like Pace was always borrowing forward vs. building up a reserve that really gives you flexibility.  

 

13 hours ago, Connorbear said:

As much as I hate to say it, I would trade Monty if we can get a low 3rd/early 4th for him. He's not worth 12 million a year.

Peace

Being a former Cyclone I might be Montgomery's biggest fan here.  I'm not sure he's worth $12mil/yr but I also think Bears fans underrate him.   It's interesting on Spotrac to see his comparisons (Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Jones) and statistically he's in that mix.  He's done that despite Nagy's offensive limitations.  At Overthecap.com they have his market value listed as around $7mil.  

Since I've been watching him run for 5 or 6 seasons I can say he's never run behind a good Oline.  He had a very good coach in Matt Campbell at Iowa State and the offense there was more effective than Nagy's.  He actually followed Campbell to ISU after committing to play for him at Toledo.  Then he got Nagy'd.   In Chicago more often than not he's dealing with defenders at the 1st/2nd level.  In college he got more 2nd/3rd level but not always.  You could see the DBs wanted nothing to do with tackling him in the 2nd half, even LBs were frustrated.  I'm very curious to see where we go with the Oline this year and what this, and Montgomery,  looks like in the 2nd half of the season.  I know if he's getting contact at 2nd/3rd level more often he's going to easily have a top 5 RB season.   That's not even a stretch because he's 16th in total yds last year and missed 3 games.   Other RBs on the list also missed games so I get that and I don't really see him as a top 5 RB but he's right there among the top 10.  

As far as a trade for a 3rd/4th Rd pick the idea here is that we feel he could be replaced by a rookie and get similar production.  If we feel that way, and that's his value, then it's likely the team with 3rd Rd pick thinks the same way.   Why would they make the trade?   I see the theory that Herbert can fill his shoes but a short stint of 3 games with good running followed by much less production doesn't make me think Herbert is ready to carry the load.  He might show more this year but I'd like to see it first before relying on him.  

With Fields being so young and learning, along with the rest of the offense I see no reason to take a risk and remove a good consistent RB.   Let this play out in 2022 and the right decision will be known.  Right now I think top 10 money is likely on the table for Montgomery and the NFL values RBs more now than 10 years ago.  That shows up in the draft too.   If Herbert shows he's ready this year, then let Montgomery go in FA next year and get the comp pick.  If not, I prefer the bird in the hand and I'd pay him.   Cap space is not an issue in 2023 so mostly we're talking philosophy on cap allocation.  As I see it we'll still be working to fix the WR position that year so we should not have a $20mil WR on the roster.  If Jenkins and Borom pan out then it's likely our Oline expense is going to be below Poles' targeted budget in 2023/24.  If Poles is what we think he is, we'll likely see young OG and OC starters out of the next 2 drafts.   If that goes as planned then in 2024/25 the Oline is established with 2nd contracts on Jenkins/Borom consuming more budget but we will be able to survive with younger less experienced RBs.   Poles would need to structure Montgomery's 2nd contract such that we could get out of it if desired after 3 yrs.  Getting that leverage usually requires a bit more per year, plus the usual contract inflation, so the $12mil/yr seems likely.  

[Stinger226]

I don't think anyone would pay 12 mil for Monty. I think he will flourish this year with a better line and offense. I would say we might make an offer but 7-8 range. Paying big contracts to RBs hasn't worked out well in the recent NFL. Still you don't want to lose good football players. 

[adam]

I really like Monty, great player, hard worker, but with what Herbert did when he was out with the same O-Line, team, scheme, etc showed enough to take a risk at RB. Here are some comparisons:

# of games started: Monty - 13, Herbert - 4
# of touches: Monty - 267, Herbert - 117

# of games with 70+ rushing yards: Monty - 4, Herbert - 4
# of games with 20+ carries: Monty - 6, Herbert - 5
# of games with a play longer than 20 yds: Monty - 5, Herbert - 5

So Monty basically had 3x the number of games started, over 2x the touches, but the same amount of big games and big plays.

To me you just can't afford to sink money in RB where you take away from another position of need because it might come down to Monty vs CB2. With Cohen making $5.7, and with Monty's production, I just don't see the Bears even offering him a contract. They may not trade him and let him play out his rookie deal, then let him walk, but I don't see them extending or resigning him.

For another comparison, look at what Rashard Penny did in Seattle in the last 5 weeks of the season. 4x games with over 135 yds rushing, the last two games were 170 and 190 with 6 TDs in those 5 weeks. Penny was playing on the 4th year of his rookie deal. Sony Michel had very similar stats to Monty and had a 1-yr deal for $1.7M. 

If the Bears do trade Monty, I could see them signing a vet for a one or two-year deal for $3-4M. Here are the list of RBs that are current UFAs that made less than $4M this year:

Richard, Lindsay, Fournette-812, Mostert, Penny, White, Michel-845, Wilson, Mack, Bolden, Jones, Brown, Conner-752, McKissic, Williams(KC)-558, and Williams (CHI) all made between $3.5M and $1.5M. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

It is tough to spend on certain positions like RB.  To do so, that player better be a game changer.  If Monty wants to stay after this season and gives a deal 8-9mil, then maybe. 

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Great to see Aaron Donald win the SB.  That is who I hoped the Bears would've drafted but instead we settled for Fuller. 

Then there is Leonard Floyd, great to see him flourish also.  We traded up for him so we didn't get Aaron Donalded again but we couldn't get Floyd to succeed. 

[adam]

9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Great to see Aaron Donald win the SB.  That is who I hoped the Bears would've drafted but instead we settled for Fuller. 

Then there is Leonard Floyd, great to see him flourish also.  We traded up for him so we didn't get Aaron Donalded again but we couldn't get Floyd to succeed. 

Yeah, we would've drafted Donald, but he got picked one spot in front of Fuller and the funny thing was even the Rams passed on him, using their 2nd pick of the 1st round to draft him. I still don't know how he fell out of the top 10. He should've won MVP last night. The Rams defense won the game and if not for a non-call on the 75-yd TD pass to Higgins, the game would not have even been that close. Rams should've won by a lot more but McVay and Stafford did their best to keep the Bengals in it.

McVay literally turned into Nagy. If the Rams were playing KC or BUF, they easily lose this game. For some reason, he kept running Akers, Michel, and Henderson for literally no gain after no gain.

Then you have Stafford who did what he always does, has some nice throws but also threw 2 picks that should've been the difference in the game. However, the Rams defense held the Bengals to 11 yds on 8 plays to settle for a FG. That was the game right there. If they scored a TD there, it puts them up 24-13 and they probably win or at least force OT. 

No one can say that a defense can't win a championship, because that is what the Rams did. It was not McVay's offense, but I will say they didn't have Woods or Higbee, and lost Beckham, and still won. 

Then the refs decided to get involved. Did call anything really all game, no offensive holding, no illegal contact, then all of a sudden on the last Rams drive of the game, penalty after penalty. 

 

For the Bengals, it was a cool story, but good luck getting back to the big one with KC, BUF, TEN, and LAC all probably better teams than you are fighting for the same spot in the AFC. 

 

This year any of the 8 top teams could've won. TEN lost by 3 to CIN who got to face a rusty Henry coming off injury. BUF lost to KC in OT, then KC lost to CIN by 3. In the NFC, TB lost by 3 to LAR, GB lost to SF by 3, and SF lost to LAR by 3. 6 out of the last 7 NFL playoff games were decided by 3 pts and the 7th one was OT. 

[adam]

If you want more data that supports not extending Monty, check this out:

2013 is the only bogus one because BeastMode was on the team, but Harvin outrushed him in the SB. However, outside of him (he made $7M), none of these other guys was making a lot of money, which allowed the team to address other positions with that cap space. 

If you sign an RB to a big second contract, it rarely works out. Also remember that Cohen is making $5.7M, 2x more than any RB on this list. Monty is going to command more.

[lemonej]

Whenever I haven't posted for a while I tend to read all post before I respond. The Bears are switching to a Tampa 2 like 4-3.

With the current players on our defense being acquired with a variation of the 3-4 defense being employed by our last 3 DCs, I realistically believe massive change is coming on the defensive side of the ball. Tonga, Goldman and Nichols are questionable to be on the roster. The Lovie Smith defense at its best featured Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson at DT. The LB were Urlacher in the MLB , Lance Briggs at WL and Hunter Hillenmeyer. DB's Vasher, Tillman, Harris and Manning. The DBs played primarily zone(Cover 2) and the MLB dropped in deep middle as well. I really think that some of the guys on this roster don't fit the HITS theme or the 4-3 with cover2 and 3 emphasis.

[adam]

1 hour ago, lemonej said:

Whenever I haven't posted for a while I tend to read all post before I respond. The Bears are switching to a Tampa 2 like 4-3.

With the current players on our defense being acquired with a variation of the 3-4 defense being employed by our last 3 DCs, I realistically believe massive change is coming on the defensive side of the ball. Tonga, Goldman and Nichols are questionable to be on the roster. The Lovie Smith defense at its best featured Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson at DT. The LB were Urlacher in the MLB , Lance Briggs at WL and Hunter Hillenmeyer. DB's Vasher, Tillman, Harris and Manning. The DBs played primarily zone(Cover 2) and the MLB dropped in deep middle as well. I really think that some of the guys on this roster don't fit the HITS theme or the 4-3 with cover2 and 3 emphasis.

Lemon,
You are spot on, we lose some DL spots with the Edge guys moving to DE and gain some LB spots going from 2x ILB to 3 LB. We definitely need some bigger corners that are good in zone coverage and another mobile LB to play Will or Mike.