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Since Its Clear The Bears Have A Top 4 Pick , Who You Got?


lemonej

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5 hours ago, lemonej said:

There's an outside chance the Bears get the first pick but, they need help from the Texans. Not happening.

So with the 2nd pick What you are doing?

I wouldn't say that it won't happen, unlikely yes, but the Colts look worse than the Texans since Saturday took over.

If they stay at #2, with all the holes that need to be filled, it seems that trading back and getting additional picks seems like the best option. If there are no good trades with value, or the trade back is too far, then Anderson would probably be my pick.

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If you truly think one of the DL is a generational talent, they you take him.

And it's not that hard to evaluate a top 5 generational talent. All you do is take a random 12 year old boy, and watch a bowl game that the player is in. Dont tell the boy anything. If, at the end of the game, the kid is begging for a jersey of that player, then you know they are a generational talent. If you have to analyze small pieces of film to find out, they arent. They might become a great player, but they are not a sure thing if they dont stand out like that.

I dont think either of the DL is a generational talent. Certainly not the Georgia DT.

Given that there is no obvious blue chipper available, and the value of the 2nd pick is bound to be huge, so I think it's a trade.

If you can get a 2024 first rounder in there, you can package it to move up to grab Harrison in 2024. If you can get an extra first this year too, then you take the next DL on the list, and a stud OL or one of the WRs.

Mathematically, there is one other possibility. If you think one of the rookie QBs is the next Payton Manning / Tom Brady /  etc, you could probably trade Fields for 2 firsts and more. Then use our 2nd overall to pick the QB, grab DL with the traded first, and use the other first in 2024 to snag Harrison. Im not saying I choose this outcome, I like Fields, but if you dont think he will ever become the passer you want, and you think one of the QBs is the man, this is a possibility.

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13 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

All of those scenarios sound good but I want them to start winning next year, not a few years from now. Take Anderson, or if you trade back and stay in the top 10 ,and  take that and draft T Wilson or Bresee.

I think Tyree Wilson is going to be a stud DE.  Anderson more of a OLB.  Fit wise, Flus and Poles emphasize size/length as a trait amd Wilson fits.

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34 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

All of those scenarios sound good but I want them to start winning next year, not a few years from now. Take Anderson, or if you trade back and stay in the top 10 ,and  take that and draft T Wilson or Bresee.

we are going to be MUCH better next year, but I hope they take the long view on everything. I dont want to lose a single playoff game, and then pat ourselves on the back as we slide back into the slime. I want to build a sustainable program, where we arent in the "we better do it this year" mode, so that we can be in the hunt every year.

We are going to be good next year, and the superbowl window opens in 2024. Is it possible they will get there early? It is! But that shouldnt be the design if any decision has a short term upside vs a long term one.

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At the moment at #2 it's Anderson or trade back.  Carter has fallen off my elite list and Anderson might yet follow him.  A trade back could offer too much value even if we really like Anderson.   

If we are #3 we'll take Anderson or, if a QB is still on the board, we'll trade back. 

If it's #4 I have no clue.    

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On 1/3/2023 at 8:57 PM, BearFan PHX said:

we are going to be MUCH better next year, but I hope they take the long view on everything. I dont want to lose a single playoff game, and then pat ourselves on the back as we slide back into the slime. I want to build a sustainable program, where we arent in the "we better do it this year" mode, so that we can be in the hunt every year.

We are going to be good next year, and the superbowl window opens in 2024. Is it possible they will get there early? It is! But that shouldnt be the design if any decision has a short term upside vs a long term one.

Bingo. Upgrading the team enough to perpetually be 9-7 or 10-6 with a 1st / 2nd round playoff exit is short-sighted. The Bears need a lot more players than just one or two. It's time to play chess instead of checkers and think a few moves ahead.

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9 minutes ago, jason said:

Bingo. Upgrading the team enough to perpetually be 9-7 or 10-6 with a 1st / 2nd round playoff exit is short-sighted. The Bears need a lot more players than just one or two. It's time to play chess instead of checkers and think a few moves ahead.

well I do think we mostly agree, but if I thought that one of the two Defensive Linemen was a generational talent, id take them. Its not just a matter of numbers, but it is a matter of whether the player is worth the value, and if you can get two firsts, neither of those guys is worht that, as far as I can see.

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28 minutes ago, jason said:

Bingo. Upgrading the team enough to perpetually be 9-7 or 10-6 with a 1st / 2nd round playoff exit is short-sighted. The Bears need a lot more players than just one or two. It's time to play chess instead of checkers and think a few moves ahead.

So as he is building this roster, you're against winning along the way up? Poles has already stated he's not going to take on bloated contracts to try to get an extra win or two. If you go by what he did this year, it's a template for his regime. He will get one or two big signing and do what he did this year, short term deals with the ability to bail next year. People will complain he's not spending enough money because we have so much. That is why he's not bringing in Hopkins or Adams, those are bloated contracts that will be bad for a team the last couple of years.He will throw money at a young guy like DeRon Payne that will be 26 next year. Or trade for a Higgins or Jeury that are still young.

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32 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

So as he is building this roster, you're against winning along the way up? Poles has already stated he's not going to take on bloated contracts to try to get an extra win or two. If you go by what he did this year, it's a template for his regime. He will get one or two big signing and do what he did this year, short term deals with the ability to bail next year. People will complain he's not spending enough money because we have so much. That is why he's not bringing in Hopkins or Adams, those are bloated contracts that will be bad for a team the last couple of years.He will throw money at a young guy like DeRon Payne that will be 26 next year. Or trade for a Higgins or Jeury that are still young.

I'm not against winning, obviously. I'm opposed to a team that's perpetually around .500. I just think this team is too far away to use one draft, even if there are a few really good FAs. This team needs two drafts with early picks, or some amazing trade down scenarios this year that stockpile picks. Otherwise, there is just enough improvement to become mediocre and get a default draft pick in the mid-teens.

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4 minutes ago, jason said:

I'm not against winning, obviously. I'm opposed to a team that's perpetually around .500. I just think this team is too far away to use one draft, even if there are a few really good FAs. This team needs two drafts with early picks, or some amazing trade down scenarios this year that stockpile picks. Otherwise, there is just enough improvement to become mediocre and get a default draft pick in the mid-teens.

This 

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2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This 

What GM plans to just be mediocre? He has a plan, he never said after this second year , that he was done rebuilding.

3 things why I think he's the right man.

1) he wants to build a team thru the draft . Nobody thinks if he has two drafts that his job is done. Good GMs attack the draft every year.

2)  he takes BPA instead of over drafting a WR last year because our WRS sucked.

3) He never going to reach for a FA with a bloated contract. ( overpay). 

Lets say he targets a DT like DeRon Payne, he will pay him but he's young and proven. He's only going to do one or two big contracts even thou we have a lot of money. He's going to be patient.

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A trade back while still getting one of Anderson, Carter, or Skoronski is a huge win in my book. They really need to get another pick between their early 1st rounder and late 2nd rounder. I hope Baltimore has a quick exit from the playoffs and loses this weekend. We need their 2nd to be as low as possible.

A Baltimore loss and a Giants win in Week 18, with a Baltimore WC loss would give the Bears pick #54. Right now it is pick #55.

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On 1/6/2023 at 1:23 AM, adam said:

A trade back while still getting one of Anderson, Carter, or Skoronski is a huge win in my book. They really need to get another pick between their early 1st rounder and late 2nd rounder. I hope Baltimore has a quick exit from the playoffs and loses this weekend. We need their 2nd to be as low as possible.

A Baltimore loss and a Giants win in Week 18, with a Baltimore WC loss would give the Bears pick #54. Right now it is pick #55.

With all the projections of the draft , it will be entirely  be dependent on FAgency acquisitions. If he brings in McGary/RT and DeRon Panye/DT it will change our draft strategy. Both are good young players that will eliminate a Skoronski or Cater pick at the top of the draft. I think he brings in an IOL and that won't be with the first pick. 

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3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think it all depends on the grades Poles has for DL, WR, OL I would be surprised if it isnt one of those three. But if he is thinking BPA, and a stud TE or DB is there or something, you never know.

He will surprise us, we can count on that.

Here's a perfect draft in my opinion with no trades. ( used PNF simulator)

Will Anderson/ DE. Best edge player in draft

Cedric Tillman/WR big WR with 4.4 speed

Jaclyn Duncan/OT athletic T that can play either side

Mazi Smith/DT big productive NT

Tuli Tuiplotu/DT stud DT 12 sacks this year

Chase Brown/RB 3 down back

Luke Margrave/TE   speed 4.57

Keion White/DE stud win 44 pressures and 7 sacks this year.

 

 

 

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I would say the Bears can trade down to pick 8 or 10 and gain much more than they lose.

Trade 1 -pick 2 for pick 4, 18, & 2024 1st.

Trade 2-pick 4 for pick 8, 39, & 2024 1st

Big picks - Tyree Wilson DE, Paris Johnson LT, Calijah Kancey 3T, Garvin Dexter 5T, John Micheal Schmitz C.

I regret missing a good WR around 65-70 range.  But 2024, we are not missing out on Harrison

The rest are depth/competition Van Pran is G/C depth.

pff_mock_results.png

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25 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I would say the Bears can trade down to pick 8 or 10 and gain much more than they lose.

Trade 1 -pick 2 for pick 4, 18, & 2024 1st.

Trade 2-pick 4 for pick 8, 39, & 2024 1st

Big picks - Tyree Wilson DE, Paris Johnson LT, Calijah Kancey 3T, Garvin Dexter 5T, John Micheal Schmitz C.

I regret missing a good WR around 65-70 range.  But 2024, we are not missing out on Harrison

The rest are depth/competition Van Pran is G/C depth.

pff_mock_results.png

With your comment about Harrison, I think Poles is going to load up on as many 2024 picks as he can so he can trade up if necessary to grab him.

 

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