Fields-O-Meter

[adam]

5 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

 

that was great to see, this team is having fun.

[killakrzydav]

Winning is so much more fun than losing

[adam]

1 hour ago, killakrzydav said:

Winning is so much more fun than losing

It's contagious. 

 

I was thinking, Fields has like 300 yards lost on drops in the last few weeks, including 3-4 TDs, and probably 100 yards rushing lost on worthless holding penalties that were not needed. The raw stats are very deceiving, like the INT that hit the ground yet still counts on his stats.

[BearFan PHX]

41 minutes ago, adam said:

It's contagious. 

 

I was thinking, Fields has like 300 yards lost on drops in the last few weeks, including 3-4 TDs, and probably 100 yards rushing lost on worthless holding penalties that were not needed. The raw stats are very deceiving, like the INT that hit the ground yet still counts on his stats.

Fields is a unique player. His style is unorthodox to be sure. Stats will never really tell his story good or bad. You gotta watch the tape to see it all in context.

Fields has had better games statistically than the one he had today. But none was more important than this one in showing what his future might be.

He had some real WOW plays too, and that's what most will take from this. But the most significant plays he made were 10 and 20 yard passes that didnt include heroic scrambling, or diving acrobatic catches. He played QB today. The first pass to DJ Moore, the post to Moore later in the game, both looked "easy" in that he was just executing in tempo. And those are the plays that will make the difference for Fields and whatever team has him.

That TD to Moore in the corner was beautiful too. The long ball was beautiful. But the efficient regular passes were the most significant to me. That was a line he hadn't crossed yet.

They may be like 50 yards and a few completions on the stat sheet. But they were monumental in signalling his growth and future. I was not expecting that from Fields at all, and it is very welcome to see.

I'll say this too - his drops were better. He always looked like a sullen teenager who just got in trouble, kinda slinking around at half speed. "Do I HAVE to" body language. Today he was crisp. He looked like a real QB out there.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Fields and whatever team has him.

Which will be Chicago.   😎👍

But a lot of why he succeeded today was that Getsy called a few designed roll-outs, play action and run plays which are what he (Fields) needs to succeed.  That and his Oline gave him a high percentage of clean pockets also contributed to his success. M

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Which will be Chicago.   😎👍

But a lot of why he succeeded today was that Getsy called a few designed roll-outs, play action and run plays which are what he (Fields) needs to succeed.  That and his Oline gave him a high percentage of clean pockets also contributed to his success. M

all of those are cool, and necessary in the gameplan, but Fields has done that and executed it well before too.

Im talking about the throws in rhythm from the pocket. They were much much better today than ever before, and his drops had more tempo than Ive ever seen from him before too.

He is growing. He was not this guy before.

If people didnt understand what I was complaining about before, maybe they wont understand what Im talking about now, but at the least, you see that my belief has changed, and it was because something was different with Justin today.

[Bears4Ever_34]

Good to see Fields boosting that trade value back up after 2 consecutive bad performances throwing the ball. ATL might be desperate enough now to give us a 1st round pick.

Not sure what the temperature of this board is, but my opinion on this discussion hasn't changed at all. The numbers over the last 3 years tell you Fields is still in the bottom half of the league as a starter. Each of the past 2 seasons he's been the worst 4th quarter quarterback in football. He only has 1 true game winning drive in his career, and he's below league average in every major passing category, still, even with minor improvements all 3 years. That should tell you a lot.

For some reason, this has turned into a difficult conversation amongst the fanbase. The fans seem to be 80/20 in favor of Fields while virtually everyone outside of Chicago seems to be 20/80.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

22 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If people didnt understand what I was complaining about before, maybe they wont understand what Im talking about now, but at the least, you see that my belief has changed, and it was because something was different with Justin today.

I get what you’re saying. I can see the critical side of Justin’s ability. I understand he has missed open receivers from time to time. But I also see a lot of the other “successful” QBs do it too.  And those other guys have a better supporting cast (Oline, receivers, OC or HC) but Justin (in my mind) has overcome a lot of that adversity.  (And to some level so has Flus).

 Nevertheless, I think Justin is smart enough to not only hear the noise of what you’re talking about but also to concentrate on focusing on what his weaknesses are and improving on them.  Like Trubiksy he has the ‘good guy’ aura about him but on top of that he has the success background in HS and college that tells you he knows how to win and will do it given the chance.  When you add in the “Houdini” like abilities of evading a sack like we saw a few times today, everyone starts chanting “we want Justin” in the stands. This guy is a keeper (IMHO) mostly because he’s the type of guy that you build around to make better.   
 

This post brought to you courtesy of Barrell Vantage Whiskey. 🥃 

Happy New Years you filthy animals. 🎉🥳🎊

[Mongo3451]

I wish I could have watched the game.  I listened to Thayer and he's usually spot on.  He said Justin looked really good the first three quarters and questioned whether the fourth quarter stuff is Getsy or Fields.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I get what you’re saying. I can see the critical side of Justin’s ability. I understand he has missed open receivers from time to time. But I also see a lot of the other “successful” QBs do it too.  And those other guys have a better supporting cast (Oline, receivers, OC or HC) but Justin (in my mind) has overcome a lot of that adversity.  (And to some level so has Flus).

 Nevertheless, I think Justin is smart enough to not only hear the noise of what you’re talking about but also to concentrate on focusing on what his weaknesses are and improving on them.  Like Trubiksy he has the ‘good guy’ aura about him but on top of that he has the success background in HS and college that tells you he knows how to win and will do it given the chance.  When you add in the “Houdini” like abilities of evading a sack like we saw a few times today, everyone starts chanting “we want Justin” in the stands. This guy is a keeper (IMHO) mostly because he’s the type of guy that you build around to make better.   
 

This post brought to you courtesy of Barrell Vantage Whiskey. 🥃 

Happy New Years you filthy animals. 🎉🥳🎊

Happy New Year to you too!

I'm not saying that Justin missed some open guys in the past sometimes. I'm saying he almost NEVER had drops at tempo, went through his reads and got the ball out to the open receiver. Not that he sometimes missed it, but that he almost NEVER did that. Which was really disturbing - and why it disqualified him in my eyes despite all his other amazing positives.

And then over the last few weeks he did it maybe once or twice a game (not counting scripted drives) and I said "OK hes doing it a little, but at this rate he'll be 50 before he puts it together"

And then this week, it was something I had never seen from him before. The drops had urgency for the FIRST time ever. They were not late.

Remember when Dexter was late off the line on every snap in preseason, and had been in college etc? There wasnt a single snap where he was across the line of scrimmage at the same time as everyone else. But then it slowly got better. One week he got 20% of them then 30% and in the second half of the season, hes been on time the whole time.

Well Justin's drops were like Dexters get off. They were late. They were wrong. ALL of them.

Suddenly today, they were all on time for the first time Ive ever seen it. It was impossible. It went from never to always like that. I dont know what to say. Maybe hes mad. Maybe he is fighting for his playing life. I dunno, but suddenly it was like it mattered, like the building was on fire and you had to go NOW.

And as surprised as I was, I wasnt going to try to throw cold water on it so that I could keep being right about everything Id said about him before. I had to admit that THIS was what I had been complaining about, and suddenly it was correct.

And not just the drops. He hit the back of his drop and got the ball out. Maybe not Bagent fast (which has its own problems) but certainly in tempo. Receivers were in their breaks and the ball arrived. I had seen a little of that in the past few weeks, one or two plays each week, but this was consistent. And suddenly balls are being thrown to the middle of the field, and caught in stride. And Yards after the catch too!

None of this is about any rollouts, screens or throws after running. All of that has been pretty good all along.

But just taking his drop. Making his read. Looking off the safety! What?! And getting the ball out on time.

This isn't something hes been doing all along that Getsy wasn't giving him. This was new. And the rhythm of the drops - that's BRAND NEW. Never saw it from him once before. Now its a whole game.

So I have to completely reevaluate my feelings about him now. I wish we had 4 more games left to see it consistently.

But everything Ive been criticizing Fields for was good this week. Maybe not A+ timing, but certainly a B, and that is good enough to win in the NFL, especially with everything else he brings to the table.

[adam]

Fields ended up with a 66.0 QBR for Week 17 which bumped his season QBR to 46.3. It has been an uphill battle all season but he does have 3x 60+ QBR games out of his last 4 games. That is a positive trend considering he started the season with an 18.3, 16.8, and 16.3. 

Fields QB Rating is now at 85.8 after a 99.5 for the game. 

Fields has a good chance to lead the team in passing and rushing for a 2nd consecutive season.

[adam]

Something to consider, a lot of QB numbers are way down this year. The TD lead with 16 games played is Prescott with 32. That is super low considering QBs in the past had over 50. 

[adam]

My thoughts are, if Poles believes Fields is a top 15 QB today and can still improve, they will trade the first pick, and at most may take a developmental QB, but not one in the first few rounds. 

Williams, Maye, or Daniels may be a top 10 QB, but the probability of going from Fields to Bryce Young is just as high as going from Fields (top 15 QB) to top 10 QB. So the gain vs risk says you keep Fields and the improvement for whatever position you draft with that pick (say WR2 goes from Mooney to MHJ) is greater than Fields to a rookie QB. 

Looking at positional cap hits, using the 10th highest hit, QB costs $40M, Edge costs $21M, WR costs $20M, IDL costs $18M, CB costs $15M. What does this matter? Well if you keep Fields and have to pay him soon, he will cost between $40-50M per year on the cap, but if you draft a WR or Edge with that pick, you are saving $15-20M with a player on a rookie deal.

COA 1 - Fields $40M + Rookie WR $7M = $47M
COA 2 - Williams $7M + FA WR or Edge $20M = $27M

So there is a $20M difference for 3 years. 

Eddie Jackson cap savings if cut = $12.5M, Cody Whitehair cap savings when cut = $9.1M, there is $21.6M. 

[adam]

Also, if the Bears decide to trade the #1 pick instead of getting a QB there, that pick could yield 2-3 extra rookie contracts, negating any difference in QB salary vs other roster spots. 

[adam]

PFF gave Fields an 81.0 for the ATL game, the 2nd highest game of the season for him (DEN). For the season, Fields has a 75.1 PFF grade, which is 21st for qualifying QBs. That is really good considering PFF hates Fields. That is up from 70.2 last season and 64.2 his rookie year. 

With one game left, he has a chance to inch his total grade closer to 80, which would put him in the top 15. 

[AZ54]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

Also, if the Bears decide to trade the #1 pick instead of getting a QB there, that pick could yield 2-3 extra rookie contracts, negating any difference in QB salary vs other roster spots. 

I'm not worried about money as much as winning.  Caleb Williams looks like a smaller version of Fields.  He has some plusses and minuses on the arm talent and field vision over Fields.  Maye looks like a very talented project.  Fortunately for us both of them are going to look awesome at the combine (if they go) and their pro day workouts.  But those aren't games.    

It seems obvious to me (just my dumb opinion) that if Fields can throw for 1300 yds to DJ Moore in a season then he can certainly do that on the other side of the field with another good WR.  Add two of them or a good 2nd TE to compliment Kmet and then a defense has an awful lot to think about.   Then fix the early pressure issues up the middle.  

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, adam said:

My thoughts are, if Poles believes Fields is a top 15 QB today and can still improve, they will trade the first pick

That was the question "can he improve?" and I hadnt seen anything much that said he would - he was already maxxed out at the things he does, and i wasnt seeing any of the things he doesnt (didnt).

This past game was new, and provides new answers to that question.

[adam]

So check this out, I have been digging in some stats (go figure).

One thing that really impacts actual raw stats is game situation. Fields has been playing from behind more than 90% of the QBs in the last 3 seasons. When I compared him to Lamar Jackson's first 3 seasons, I didn't even realize Fields had double the amount of passing attempts from behind than Lamar had. The game is much easier you are not trailing. Lamar also had the #1 defense that was continually giving him the ball with a short field.

So the raw stats are super skewed. 

When I sorted by splits, and said give me only stats when the game is tied, Fields is 1 of 16 active QBs in the last 3 seasons (cumulatively) to have a Passer Rating above 90.0 when the game is tied. Fields has a 92.3 rating when the game is tied. Justin Herbert is 92.9. Lamar has a 84.1. 

[BearFan PHX]

To play Devils Advocate, we are tied when the game begins and Fields is in his scripted plays.

Can you do tied only in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters? or maybe broaden it to tied or within 4 points either way and not the first quarter?

[adam]

The Bears are 10th in 3rd Down conversions (41.9%) and 12th in RZ% at 59.6%, and tied for 16th in TDs. This feels about right. A few TDs left on the field with those dropped passes. 

[BearFan PHX]

51 minutes ago, adam said:

The Bears are 10th in 3rd Down conversions (41.9%) and 12th in RZ% at 59.6%, and tied for 16th in TDs. This feels about right. A few TDs left on the field with those dropped passes. 

That's probably measuring Fields' legs? Im actually surprised it isn't higher, given all the 3rd downs he finds a way to escape and make something happen?

And you know, Ive been diminishing those amazing extra things because of a lack in core skills, but if the core skills are indeed developing, then those amazing extra things will really start to play dividends.

Imagine having to take a guy out of coverage as a spy against a good pocket passer. Now the defense is truly screwed. Blitz, and he evades or makes fast hot reads, play coverage and he runs, spy and his reads just got easier.

[BearFan PHX]

The thing I love most about football is how every single thing is a multiplier for every other single thing. It's the greatest team sport, multidimensional riddle - it makes it fun to watch. And when you start stacking good things, it takes on momentum and every ability becomes intensified. Thats when you start to dominate.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

To play Devils Advocate, we are tied when the game begins and Fields is in his scripted plays.

Can you do tied only in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters? or maybe broaden it to tied or within 4 points either way and not the first quarter?

Hmm, let me see.  Very true, but how much of that is on Getsy vs Fields. That is tough to separate.

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I'm not worried about money as much as winning.  Caleb Williams looks like a smaller version of Fields.  He has some plusses and minuses on the arm talent and field vision over Fields.  Maye looks like a very talented project.  Fortunately for us both of them are going to look awesome at the combine (if they go) and their pro day workouts.  But those aren't games.    

It seems obvious to me (just my dumb opinion) that if Fields can throw for 1300 yds to DJ Moore in a season then he can certainly do that on the other side of the field with another good WR.  Add two of them or a good 2nd TE to compliment Kmet and then a defense has an awful lot to think about.   Then fix the early pressure issues up the middle.  

If Williams measures in at only 6ft even, I think he is gonna drop. 

[adam]

18 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Good to see Fields boosting that trade value back up after 2 consecutive bad performances throwing the ball. ATL might be desperate enough now to give us a 1st round pick.

Not sure what the temperature of this board is, but my opinion on this discussion hasn't changed at all. The numbers over the last 3 years tell you Fields is still in the bottom half of the league as a starter. Each of the past 2 seasons he's been the worst 4th quarter quarterback in football. He only has 1 true game winning drive in his career, and he's below league average in every major passing category, still, even with minor improvements all 3 years. That should tell you a lot.

For some reason, this has turned into a difficult conversation amongst the fanbase. The fans seem to be 80/20 in favor of Fields while virtually everyone outside of Chicago seems to be 20/80.

The 4th quarter thing is concerning, but when you are trailing 90% of the time, it makes you super predictable and the defense can be very aggressive. Which is why I hate when Flus goes to prevent and passive zones with a lead. 

All splits are much different when you consider leading, tied, and trailing. So of course most players trailing in the 4th quarter are going to have worse stats unless you are Tom Brady.