Week 15 Official Game Thread - Bears at Browns, DEC 17th, 12pm, FOX, CHI +3, O/U 37

[adam]

The Bears head to Cleveland to face Joe Flacco. The line is only +3, so Vegas considers this an even game. 

People are talking about the Browns defense, but I'm confused. They just allowed 27, 36, and 29 in the last 3 games. 

Before this last game where they scored 31, they hadn't broken 20 in the 3 previous games. So their offense doesn't look that good.

In their last game, Lawrence threw 3 INTs and the Jags had 4 turnovers but Cleveland has 3 of their own. So it was a sloppy game.

If the same Bears team shows up, I am going Bears 23-13 in a low scoring affair where the Bears score late to put it out of reach.

On offense, they need to double Garrett and take him out of the game.

I like the Bears offense over the Browns offense, Fields over Flacco, Moore over Cooper.

On defense, I will call it a. push but the Bears defense playing lights out the last month (since Sweat trade).

Santos has been super solid and Taylor has made a few nice returns. Browns have punting advantage and I don't even know who their punter is.

[Stinger226]

They are weak at WR and with Flacco at QB, they dont scare anyone. Without Chubb the running game doesnt scare you. If we win the TO battle, we win the game. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Flacco is having a Dobbs-like resurgence.  He apparently did something no Browns QB had done since 1981 and that was throw three TDs in one game that was at least 30 yards. Considering it was against the Jags and their 30th ranked pass defense it makes sense.  Two of those were to Ngokue so he’ll need someone to stick with him.   
 

Flacco is statue like so if we can get pressure on him all day that will make a huge difference.

Browns D is no slouch. Ranked #1 overall, #1 against the pass and #14 against the run.  This will be a huge test for Justin and the O.   I suspect a fair amount of running (by Justin too) and a few pass plays here and there.  Hopefully not 15 screens in a row though. 

[Mongo3451]

3 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Browns D is no slouch. Ranked #1 overall, #1 against the pass and #14 against the run.  This will be a huge test for Justin and the O.   I suspect a fair amount of running (by Justin too) and a few pass plays here and there.  Hopefully not 15 screens in a row though. 

I'm looking at this as a great game to evaluate Justin and Getsy.  I hope they are in lockstep with each other this week.  Anything above average is a win...

[adam]

35 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Flacco is having a Dobbs-like resurgence.  He apparently did something no Browns QB had done since 1981 and that was throw three TDs in one game that was at least 30 yards. Considering it was against the Jags and their 30th ranked pass defense it makes sense.  Two of those were to Ngokue so he’ll need someone to stick with him.   
 

Flacco is statue like so if we can get pressure on him all day that will make a huge difference.

Browns D is no slouch. Ranked #1 overall, #1 against the pass and #14 against the run.  This will be a huge test for Justin and the O.   I suspect a fair amount of running (by Justin too) and a few pass plays here and there.  Hopefully not 15 screens in a row though. 

Some of those Defensive numbers are misleading. Teams are scoring a ton on them the last 3 weeks, 27, 36, and 29 the last 3 weeks. 4 TDs allowed to JAX, 4 TDs allowed to LAR, and 3 TDs allowed to DEN. They had 3 games earlier in the season where they shutout ARZ, and only allowed 3 to TEN and CIN. Those 3 games really make their overall season numbers look good. Those last 2 were September games, which is almost like a season ago at this point.

They are still a top 10 defense, but not playing like a top 3 defense like they were earlier in the year.

[adam]

This week is huge with TB playing GB and MIN playing CIN. If so how TB and CIN can win, and the Bears win, they would be tied with GB at 6-7, and 1 game back with MIN with 3 to play. MINs last 3 games are DET, GB, DET. They would have to win 2 of 3 to make the playoffs.  With GB at 6-8, they would have to win out like the Bears and would have CAR, MIN, then CHI left. So their Weeks 17 (MIN) and 18 (CHI) could both be playoff-like games. Win for playoff chance, lose and you are out.

[AZ54]

After watching GB lose last night I can confidently say the best NFC North team I’ve seen play in the last month is clearly the Bears.  I wonder if Love has some of the fear factor Trubisky had under the bright lights of big games.  He looked horrible and I’ve seen him play better than that.  Although some of the same bad traits he had in college are still part of his game when under pressure.   

[Stinger226]

On we on the horizon of something special  or just starting to have luck lean our way? 4 weeks will answer that. 

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

On we on the horizon of something special  or just starting to have luck lean our way? 4 weeks will answer that. 

I think it is both. We haven't seen the game crushing phantom call go against the Bears lately, and team overall has been improving, and even the playcalling, especially on defense is visible. Numbers are matching the eye test, which makes it feel real. 

[adam]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

After watching GB lose last night I can confidently say the best NFC North team I’ve seen play in the last month is clearly the Bears.  I wonder if Love has some of the fear factor Trubisky had under the bright lights of big games.  He looked horrible and I’ve seen him play better than that.  Although some of the same bad traits he had in college are still part of his game when under pressure.   

Love was throwing off his back foot, floating backwards on several clean pockets, almost like he was in practice. Two balls were just lofted up like there were no defenders there. A lot of throws were to wide open receivers or to those that were in place.  For most of the game his Y/A was under 5, and if not for some lucky deep balls, he would have one of the lowest Y/A in the league. 

[Stinger226]

You wait and see, the last game of the year will be for a playoff berth.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

You wait and see, the last game of the year will be for a playoff berth.

I think you’re right.  I was gonna say if the Bears beat the Browns this next week while in Cleveland…they’re in.  But yours is less a “hot take” and more likely. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

One thing about Getsy is he changes the scheme to try and beat a defense. If the offense was a top 5-10 unit, it would be the other way and they would force the defense to scheme to stop them.  

I will have to see how Cleveland played against Baltimore, they will use that same tactic against JF.  Their blitz rate was 32%, which was 9th most. They wanted to hit Jackson hard to limit his runs. This will not only be a test for JF, but a bigger one for the Oline. 

Quick look, Jackson was held under 200 yds passing and under 50 rushing, they split the two games. There is some hope the Bears can find a way.

[adam]

36 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

One thing about Getsy is he changes the scheme to try and beat a defense. If the offense was a top 5-10 unit, it would be the other way and they would force the defense to scheme to stop them.  

I will have to see how Cleveland played against Baltimore, they will use that same tactic against JF.  Their blitz rate was 32%, which was 9th most. They wanted to hit Jackson hard to limit his runs. This will not only be a test for JF, but a bigger one for the Oline. 

Quick look, Jackson was held under 200 yds passing and under 50 rushing, they split the two games. There is some hope the Bears can find a way.

Cleveland just lost their top DT for the season, so who knows how their defense will look like without him. He was the 2nd highest graded defender on PFF. 

[Stinger226]

This is why we win, Browns top 3 OTs are going to be out.

[adam]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

This is why we win, Browns top 3 OTs are going to be out.

The Bears are not facing Watson, there is now enough tape on Flacco in this offense to start to shut him down, he is old for an NFL QB, and was bad before. With a lot of 2nd stringers on the O-Line, the front-4 should be able to get some pressures.  Bears by at least 10.

I am thinking our Defense continues its turnover trend and gets 2 more INTs against Flacco. The Bears are now 2nd in INTs (15), only to SF (17), and are no longer last in sacks (thanks CAR). 

[adam]

Bears lost Yannick, but Browns have lost Okoronkwo (DE), Delpit (S), D. Jones (RT), Hurst (DT), in addition to already had lost Watson, Chubb, Conklin, Wills, and McLeod.

For PFF, Chubb was their #1 offensive player at 81.6, Conklin was 74.5, Watson was 67.3, D. Jones was 64.7, and Wills 54.0. On defense, Hurst was #2 at 81.0, Delpit was 70.0, Okoronkwo 66.1, and McLeod was 54.1. That's basically 7 starters out of 22. 

The Bears will be playing 1/3 of Browns backups, and with their top 2 OTs only having 372 and 304 snaps on the season with PFF grades of 48.4 and 38.5. In comparison, Wright has 864 snaps and Jones has 461, and even Borom has 408. 

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, adam said:

Bears lost Yannick, but Browns have lost Okoronkwo (DE), Delpit (S), D. Jones (RT), Hurst (DT), in addition to already had lost Watson, Chubb, Conklin, Wills, and McLeod.

For PFF, Chubb was their #1 offensive player at 81.6, Conklin was 74.5, Watson was 67.3, D. Jones was 64.7, and Wills 54.0. On defense, Hurst was #2 at 81.0, Delpit was 70.0, Okoronkwo 66.1, and McLeod was 54.1. That's basically 7 starters out of 22. 

The Bears will be playing 1/3 of Browns backups, and with their top 2 OTs only having 372 and 304 snaps on the season with PFF grades of 48.4 and 38.5. In comparison, Wright has 864 snaps and Jones has 461, and even Borom has 408. 

Yannick broke his ankle and stayed in the game?  

[adam]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Yannick broke his ankle and stayed in the game?  

Oh no, his last play was when he got rolled up by Edmunds.

[adam]

This week has a tone of interesting games that can help/hurt the Bears playoff chances and/or draft position. 7 games have a team that can impact both the draft and playoff chances.

MIN @ CIN - A CIN win helps the Bears playoff chances (MIN goes to 8 losses) and draft position (lowers SoS).
DEN @ DET - A DEN win helps draft position (lowers SoS) and slightly helps playoff chances (If DET loses out).
ATL @ CAR - This one is either or. A CAR win helps playoffs (ATL goes to 8 losses), but hurts draft slightly (1 win closer to NE/ARZ). An ATL win solidifies the #1 pick.
TB @ GB - A TB win helps the Bears playoff chances (GB foes to 8 losses) and slightly for draft position (SoS). 
NYJ @ MIA - A NYJ win would help the Bears pick (NYJ goes to 6 wins).
NYG @ NO - A NYG win helps both playoff chances (NYG goes to 6 wins) and the Bears pick.
HOU @ TEN - A TEN win helps the Bears pick (TEN goes to 6 wins).
KC @ NE - A NE solidifies #1 pick and brings NE one win closer to Bears win total (if Bears lose).
SF @ ARZ - An ARZ win helps solidify the #1 pick and brings ARZ one win closer to Bears win total (if Bears lose).
WAS @ LAR - A WAS win would help both the draft position and playoff chances (LAR goes to 8 losses). 
PHI @ SEA - A PHI win helps the Bears playoff chances (SEA goes to 8 losses).

[Stinger226]

Has anyone noticed that the great Myles Garrett has only had 3 tackles and no sacks in his last 3_ games?

[adam]

The Bears have a clear advantage over the Browns over the last month of play. These trends are pretty solid and are good predictors when the tier separation is that big:

 

 

[adam]

Pocic, Browns Center also out for Sunday. They are down 3 starting OLine.

[BearFan PHX]

45 minutes ago, adam said:

Pocic, Browns Center also out for Sunday. They are down 3 starting OLine.

sounds like an easier game than it could have been, and unfortunately, it provides less of a test for our team too.

While it's not JF's fault that the Browns' defense and team is depleted, it also removes a chance for him to prove more against a better opponent.

He needs all the chances he can get too, because the decision about his future in Chicago doesn't just rest on his performances, but also he's already behind the 8 ball because of the rookie contract window that restarts if you replace him with a rookie, and there's nothing JF can do about that.

On the plus side, it helps with this year's playoff quest.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Has anyone noticed that the great Myles Garrett has only had 3 tackles and no sacks in his last 3_ games?

I heard somewhere recently that he was ‘playing with one arm’ but he hasn’t shown up on any injury reports.  I saw that he took a ‘rest day’ a few days ago at practice (for what that’s worth).  
 

Zadarius Smith is currently listed as playing opposite him and can get streaky.  DC Jim Schwartz is known for an aggressive defense and likes to maintain pressure.  We know Justin will have to be on his toes.