Reality check

[Stinger226]

The for and against Fields conversation  will go on until the draft but several things come into play.

1st  we have to have the number 1 pick.. I think its Caleb Williams or Justin Fields. If Poles thinks Williams is the guy, he will take him. If we end up with the second or third pick that is out of the picture. Maye does not carry the clout that Williams does. Truth be told, both have been questioned about being great as we get closer to the draft. The third pick is probably the best player in the draft MHJ, if he is  there, he will take him. So now the conversation, is  there a QB prospect that has more upside than the upside of Fields?  The draft will bring more light to that issue. 

Others things Poles has to think about, Fields is a hard worker, born leader, and the team is totally behind him. So not only will Poles have to sell a new QB to the fan base but also to the players in the locker room. He more so has to make a determination, if he keeps Flus or not that will add to the keep Justin or not. If Flus stays I think he is more likely to keep Fields around, if he changes he more likely bring in a new QB. 

This is very complicated , its not just keep or dumb Fields. 

I keep hearing people say because we have the top pick 2 yrs in a row, we have to take a QB. That is ridiculous.

The top 4 teams in the National conference has a 7th round QB, 2nd round, 4th round and a first round that got traded because his team didnt think he was good enough. 

Out of the last 10 SB winning QBs only Peyton and Stafford were ist pick in the draft that won SBs and Stafford  did it  with his original team. 

The most constant traits with SB teams is a great coach and talented roster. OB matters but appears not to be the most important factor. 

Change my mind?

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

The for and against Fields conversation  will go on until the draft but several things come into play.

1st  we have to have the number 1 pick.. I think its Caleb Williams or Justin Fields. If Poles thinks Williams is the guy, he will take him. If we end up with the second or third pick that is out of the picture. Maye does not carry the clout that Williams does. Truth be told, both have been questioned about being great as we get closer to the draft. The third pick is probably the best player in the draft MHJ, if he is  there, he will take him. So now the conversation, is  there a QB prospect that has more upside than the upside of Fields?  The draft will bring more light to that issue. 

Others things Poles has to think about, Fields is a hard worker, born leader, and the team is totally behind him. So not only will Poles have to sell a new QB to the fan base but also to the players in the locker room. He more so has to make a determination, if he keeps Flus or not that will add to the keep Justin or not. If Flus stays I think he is more likely to keep Fields around, if he changes he more likely bring in a new QB. 

This is very complicated , its not just keep or dumb Fields. 

I keep hearing people say because we have the top pick 2 yrs in a row, we have to take a QB. That is ridiculous.

The top 4 teams in the National conference has a 7th round QB, 2nd round, 4th round and a first round that got traded because his team didnt think he was good enough. 

Out of the last 10 SB winning QBs only Peyton and Stafford were ist pick in the draft that won SBs and Stafford  did it  with his original team. 

The most constant traits with SB teams is a great coach and talented roster. OB matters but appears not to be the most important factor. 

Change my mind?

Media is really stirring the pot. Getting the #1 pick two years in a row should not require you to take a QB, but because the last 3 teams did it, they make it a precedent. My problem is, do you really want to follow the footsteps of JAX, CLE and CLE? Everything should be on the table at #1, what move makes the team better longer. They have to weigh trade compensation (both projected and real) for the pick, for Fields vs using the pick. 

For Flus, if he gets fired, are any of the other teams with vacancies hiring him? If the answer is no, why should he stay on as the Bears coach?

The Purdy thing is an anomaly, if SF really thought he was going to be that good, they would not have traded up for Lance AND drafted Purdy with the last pick. Also, every other team passed on Purdy 7 times.  With that said, if the argument is SF has built a team that allows a 7th Round QB to excel (which is true), then the Bears don't need to pay Fields as a first round pick, trade the #1 pick AND trade Fields, and then draft a QB later after the team is stacked. That is one scenario that I have not seen (trading both). 

 

 

[Stinger226]

Flus is not a great coach, roster isn't complete yet, so I'm not sure what path Poles follows. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The for and against Fields conversation  will go on until the draft but several things come into play.

1st  we have to have the number 1 pick.. I think its Caleb Williams or Justin Fields. If Poles thinks Williams is the guy, he will take him. If we end up with the second or third pick that is out of the picture. Maye does not carry the clout that Williams does. Truth be told, both have been questioned about being great as we get closer to the draft. The third pick is probably the best player in the draft MHJ, if he is  there, he will take him. So now the conversation, is  there a QB prospect that has more upside than the upside of Fields?  The draft will bring more light to that issue. 

Others things Poles has to think about, Fields is a hard worker, born leader, and the team is totally behind him. So not only will Poles have to sell a new QB to the fan base but also to the players in the locker room. He more so has to make a determination, if he keeps Flus or not that will add to the keep Justin or not. If Flus stays I think he is more likely to keep Fields around, if he changes he more likely bring in a new QB. 

This is very complicated , its not just keep or dumb Fields. 

I keep hearing people say because we have the top pick 2 yrs in a row, we have to take a QB. That is ridiculous.

The top 4 teams in the National conference has a 7th round QB, 2nd round, 4th round and a first round that got traded because his team didnt think he was good enough. 

Out of the last 10 SB winning QBs only Peyton and Stafford were ist pick in the draft that won SBs and Stafford  did it  with his original team. 

The most constant traits with SB teams is a great coach and talented roster. OB matters but appears not to be the most important factor. 

Change my mind?

Having top pick 2 years in a row shouldn't be a consideration.  The real question is - we have a top 2 pick and can't punt on if we think we have a need for QB.  If we need a QB because we don't think our QB is a difference maker and one is available - than it is a no brainer. Point blank that is really the only question / consideration at end.

I will also go on record that the concept of - just draft one of the other QB's in a later round - is just a rubbish strategy.  Oh I'll just get one in the 2nd round.  Now that strategy might work - but it really can't be considered a strategy, its more getting lucky that every other team missed their eval and you were right.  The reality is - going back the last 20 years - this is who has differentiated as a QB outside of the 1st round (obviously the GOAT is on that list).  Other than that since 2000 - I think I have pretty much everyone covered...so 23 years and the below is about all there is.  The inverse means - a heck of a lot of the better QBs were drafted in the 1st (by the way - plenty busted too).  

So point blank - the question has to be - do you think Fields is the guy. If the answer is yes - than you aren't drafting a QB at 1.  If the answer is No (or you have material question(s), than you have to look at this class. If when you assess this class - there is a guy in this class that differentiates himself and you think is special - than you select him at 1.  You don't get cute - you draft him at 1.  If your answer is no - than by all means, stick with Fields and take a flyer on a later round pick (but do so knowing that is purely a developmental play not a strategy for finding your QB).  

Below is my list of what I believe to be difference makers taken after 1st round. Initial focus was on 3rd round and later and than I segregated 2nd round slightly different (because in some cases I think some added context is relevant around why they went in the 2nd - such as Brees was 2nd rounder, but also 2nd QB to go off the board (behind Vick); Hurts was 2nd rounder - but he followed an extremely deep class of 1st rounders).  

3rd Round and Lower:

Russel Wilson

Brock Purdy

Tom Brady

2nd Round: 

Drew Brees (2nd QB taken though behind Vick)

Jalen Hurts (5th QB taken in a ridiculously strong QB class - Burrow / Tua / Herbert / Love went before him)

 

Almost List: 

Derek Carr (2nd Rounder) - Doesn't deserve to be on the list above.   

Kurt Cousins (4th Rounder) - Again - I don't think he belongs on the list with the guys above (to be frank Brock Purdy may eventually fall of the list too - but thus far he warrants being included). 

 

Note: I do think a good strategy is to contiously draft QB's in the later rounds - but not as a strategy to solve your existing QB problem - do it to create depth and competition and create enough odds where you might find your NEXT QB by doing that (I kind of think of it more in terms of future proofing your LT viability).  

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

we have a top 2 pick and can't punt on if we think we have a need for QB.  If we need a QB because we don't think our QB is a difference maker and one is available - than it is a no brainer. Point blank that is really the only question / consideration at end.

I will also go on record that the concept of - just draft one of the other QB's in a later round - is just a rubbish strategy. 

So point blank - the question has to be - do you think Fields is the guy. If the answer is yes - than you aren't drafting a QB at 1.  If the answer is No (or you have material question(s), than you have to look at this class. If when you assess this class - there is a guy in this class that differentiates himself and you think is special - than you select him at 1.  You don't get cute - you draft him at 1.

Note: I do think a good strategy is to contiously draft QB's in the later rounds - but not as a strategy to solve your existing QB problem - do it to create depth and competition and create enough odds where you might find your NEXT QB by doing that (I kind of think of it more in terms of future proofing your LT viability).  

This is all correct. And it isn't an opinion - it's what GMs have done consistently. When they took Brady, they werent looking for a GOAT, they had Bledsoe. Sometimes GMs get lucky, but it's not like it was their STRATEGY to find the goat in the 6th round. We might get struck by lighting, or win the lottery, but for most of us that will never happen. Facts. And thank you for posting it!

The opinion comes into it when you ask for an eval on Justin. Some think he's great. Cool. I totally disagree, but if Poles thinks that, then he shouldnt draft a QB #1. That's where the opinion comes in.

But the rest of this draft a difference maker in the 4th round is nonsense. It just is. The fundamental misunderstanding in the argument "a lot of first round QBs bust" as a reason to take one later is just insane. The stats are clear. 81% of first pick QBs become elite. 39% of first round QBs become elite - top 10 even better, and another 22% of first rounders are decent. This is all according to the Harvard 30 year study Ive linked here a few times, including their definition of "elite" - it's arbitrary, but it's a set threshold to measure by, and it's the same threshold for every player evaluated, so it does provide a relative score that all play under equally whether you like the word they use for it or not. It's a loaded word, but it's a mathematical outcome no matter what word we might prefer to use as a descriptor for their methodology.

Adam also made the list of good QBs in the league right now. 75% of them were TOP TEN picks.

These are facts, and they are self evident. The best athlete in gym class isn't the guy taken last. Everyone knows it. It's crazy that we even debate it.

Yes, 19% of #1 pick QBs aren't elite. 39% of the rest of the round are busts. And that includes the whole first round it's better at the top of course. But 80% of second round QBs arent elite. Is that better? No its 400% worse than the #1 pick! That's math!

The argument for taking a franchise QB later is basically saying "theres no sure thing in the first round, so Ill dramatically increase my risk of failing to address that smaller risk in the first round." WHAT?!?

The argument that Fields is awesome is one I disagree with, but thats opinion. It isnt the same kind of WRONG as this STRATEGY to pick a franchise QB in a later round. It truly boggles my mind.

Other than thinking Fields is the man, the other reason to wait to take a starting QB until later rounds is to make the online draft games more fun. You can get a lot if you dont spend that first pick on a QB. And that's really fun. I like Madden too.

In fact, depending on how I end up grading out the rookie QBs, I might be cool with trading down the #1, or taking MHJr, and getting the QB with our second first rounder. All that depending on where we finish, and what I think of the QBs after I study them.

But to me Justin is NOT the man. He doesnt make the reads in time. He does everything at a high level except the core job of being a QB. And I dont think you can ignore that, or win big games with that, so I'm definitely trading Fields, and taking a QB in the top 10 or 15 picks of the 2024 draft.

This aint a movie, and no heroes ending to the season is gonna change the tape we now have on the guy. it is what it is. Fans can and will ignore it, but I think if you watch the film looking for reality and not a narrative, you gotta come to the same conclusion. It's there every week.

I think Poles fires Eberflus and trades Fields this year. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll make it past next season as GM, and we will all be miserable next year watching the rest of the team develop and lose games because our video game QB cant make the throws the way they're drawn up. There will be lots of highlights, but no playoff wins.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Note: I do think a good strategy is to contiously draft QB's in the later rounds - but not as a strategy to solve your existing QB problem - do it to create depth and competition and create enough odds where you might find your NEXT QB by doing that (I kind of think of it more in terms of future proofing your LT viability).  

Absolutely. You always want to be developing the QB position, and others too.

In this case, with Bagent on the team, I think we can skip that for this year at least. He's about the best you can hope for in a later round QB pick, and he has tons of upside that we havent seen yet. he is the perfect developmental backup QB right now.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I feel like the draft order is going to determine whether or not Eberflus is fired and/or Fields is brought back.

I think the drop off from Caleb Williams to Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is wide enough that I'm not sure the Bears consider moving off Fields for that. And, if you're not moving off Fields, you're probably not going to change coaches unless you can find one who is really sold on Fields.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I feel like the draft order is going to determine whether or not Eberflus is fired and/or Fields is brought back.

I think the drop off from Caleb Williams to Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is wide enough that I'm not sure the Bears consider moving off Fields for that. And, if you're not moving off Fields, you're probably not going to change coaches unless you can find one who is really sold on Fields.

I totally see your point. Right now Im assuming (on nothing) that there is more than one QB option, and Im also not even sure that I like Caleb Williams as my #1.

So if youre right, and there's only one great one, and the rest grade out average, and you dont hvae the pick to get that player, that does definitely screw the whole plan up. And then I dunno what you do. Youd have to have a name for next year that youre already excited about. And it doesnt make Fields any better either.

But if you believe in at least one QB that you have the pick to take, then I think it's a no brainer to cut Eberflus and Fields loose.

I still think Im gonna like more than Williams, but I dunno anything about that yet for sure.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Adam also made the list of good QBs in the league right now. 75% of them were TOP TEN picks.

These are facts, and they are self evident. The best athlete in gym class isn't the guy taken last. Everyone knows it. It's crazy that we even debate it.

Yes, 19% of #1 pick QBs aren't elite. 39% of the rest of the round are busts. And that includes the whole first round it's better at the top of course. But 80% of second round QBs arent elite. Is that better? No its 400% worse than the #1 pick! That's math!

As a friend of mine recently said, the ‘math ain’t mathin’ especially if you dive into some of the stats rather than just taking the raw numbers.  (And by the way I thought the 75% thing was a Harvard study, not an Adam thing).  Anyhow…

If we look at just the current starting QBs I counted  17 maybe 18 starting QBs were 1st rounders.  Thats closer to 50%.  Of those a few are retreads like Goff (2nd team), Stafford (2nd team), Mayfield (3rd or 4th(?) team), Trubisky (temp starter?  - 2nd team) and Winston although not a starter on his 2nd or 3rd team . A couple other 1st rounders were still waiting to see how they pan out; Herbert, Allen, Watson, Daniel and Mac Jones and Zach Wilson among them.  These guys still leave a lot to be desired as in becoming “elite” and being picked first in gym class. 

 

 

 

[Mongo3451]

I find it odd that this thread is titled "back to reality" and first two paragraphs begin with personal opinion.  Sorry Stinger, had to bust your balls for that.

My reality, based on statistics, wins and losses and execution tell me Fields is gone.  He has proven to be a more athletic Mitch Trubisky.  That being said, Poles must have conviction on one of the top QBs.  If it's a solid conviction, you take him at one.  Can't take a chance on someone else taking him.  My pick is Maye.

Now that QB is off the board, there's no way we can get MHJ without trading back up.  It would be a steep price, because we don't know who covets him.  Poles has shown us that he probably won't do that.  In comes Brock Bowers.  He may be a bigger difference maker than MHJ.  TE's that run a 4.4 and have glue for hands are rarer than WR's not named Moss or Megatron.  Bowers is my pick.  With a FA side of Tee Higgins.

It's going to be a crazy 4 months of cuts, trades, FA signings, extensions and draft choices.  May the dominos fall our way.

Bear down!

[Stinger226]

26 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I feel like the draft order is going to determine whether or not Eberflus is fired and/or Fields is brought back.

I think the drop off from Caleb Williams to Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is wide enough that I'm not sure the Bears consider moving off Fields for that. And, if you're not moving off Fields, you're probably not going to change coaches unless you can find one who is really sold on Fields.

The draft order absolutely will help decide what Poles does. Every year people talk up  QBs in the draft . In the last 5 yrs, only Burrow and Allen are a first round pick that you can call elite. Herbert, Tua, Lawrence, Murray, and Stroud will probably get there but I dont think one yr or QBs that arent winning can be considered just yet. Herbert seems great but he cant lift a team with good talent to win. Same reason people slam Fields. Tua has had a couple great yrs and is winning now, but just got a great coach, something we dont have here. 5 yrs 2 elite QBS taken in the first round with a few more close. Stroud looks good but you cant base elite on one yr. Murray is a big question mark, and Lawrence should be doing better than he has. 

So everyone saying you have to draft a QB high, the numbers dont agree with you and none of this matters. If Poles likes someone he will draft him, if he doesnt he will not just draft a lower QB for sake of change. Lance, Young, Wilson, D Jones, Haskins, Pickett, Ridder, the NFL is littered with fails. The next 3 games is not going to affect his opinion towards Justin, he already knows what he is going to do.

I dont think he planned to fire his coach after 2 yrs and blow everything up to start over again. His plan was a 4 yr to respectability, So if we dont get pick 1 or 2, his priority will shift. I suspect he goes into keep rebuilding the roster , trade his fist pick and fill needs. Im sure he could get several draft picks for the right to pick MHJ, or keep it and just do the right thing and take him then trade the other pick. 

[Stinger226]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I find it odd that this thread is titled "back to reality" and first two paragraphs begin with personal opinion.  Sorry Stinger, had to bust your balls for that.

My reality, based on statistics, wins and losses and execution tell me Fields is gone.  He has proven to be a more athletic Mitch Trubisky.  That being said, Poles must have conviction on one of the top QBs.  If it's a solid conviction, you take him at one.  Can't take a chance on someone else taking him.  My pick is Maye.

Now that QB is off the board, there's no way we can get MHJ without trading back up.  It would be a steep price, because we don't know who covets him.  Poles has shown us that he probably won't do that.  In comes Brock Bowers.  He may be a bigger difference maker than MHJ.  TE's that run a 4.4 and have glue for hands are rarer than WR's not named Moss or Megatron.  Bowers is my pick.  With a FA side of Tee Higgins.

It's going to be a crazy 4 months of cuts, trades, FA signings, extensions and draft choices.  May the dominos fall our way.

Bear down!

How is saying we have to have one of the first 2 picks a personal opinion? How is saying other things will come into play , no where do I say we should draft Fields but I suppose saying he is a team leader projects that. I did listen to 4 players that absolutely say that so I did that with some context. As i reread it, I can see where my opinion shows thru.. I thought I hid that well but you got me. My point I was trying to make is other things will come into play before you ever get to the choice of ye or ne on Justin.

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The for and against Fields conversation  will go on until the draft.

Paragraph one.  Opinion one

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

1st  we have to have the number 1 pick.. I think its Caleb Williams or Justin Fields.

Paragraph two.  Opinion two.

Like I said, just busting your balls for fun, brother.  This is an opinion site for fans.  So opinions are required...🍻🤙

[Stinger226]

Other than addressing the QB position, we need a starting center, more depth at OT and OG, if not even to compete for the starter job. At least one edge rusher, 3 T, and a replacement for EJAC, more weapons.  I think he could ask him to redo his contract before he cut him. He isnt great anymore but cutting him creates another hole unless he has the man to replace him.  I figure we could get 2 positions filled in free agency because they wont cost a lot, center and safety.  I think he signs one big contract this offseason, is that JJ? Maybe the 3T spot because Dexter is progressing but isnt there yet. J Jones is actually playing well right now, will he just bring him back? 44 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 9 TFL, 15 QB hits, 4 PDs 11 pressures. The first 2 picks will be a QB? a edge- yes, LT- maybe, 3 T maybe 

 Is this an opinion? or is it accurate and be both.

[Stinger226]

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Paragraph one.  Opinion one

Paragraph two.  Opinion two.

Like I said, just busting your balls for fun, brother.  This is an opinion site for fans.  So opinions are required...🍻🤙

Cool, I  guess no one can mention Fields without it being injected with an opinion. 

[Stinger226]

I probably shouldn't say this but after last weekend, my thoughts were to move on from Fields. Then I listened to 10 videos and interviewed by former players and they all were backing Fields, now Im confused again. None of their opinions will affect whether we move on from Fields  or not but Poles was a former player , does he think like them?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I find it odd that this thread is titled "back to reality" and first two paragraphs begin with personal opinion.  Sorry Stinger, had to bust your balls for that.

My reality, based on statistics, wins and losses and execution tell me Fields is gone.  He has proven to be a more athletic Mitch Trubisky.  That being said, Poles must have conviction on one of the top QBs.  If it's a solid conviction, you take him at one.  Can't take a chance on someone else taking him.  My pick is Maye.

Now that QB is off the board, there's no way we can get MHJ without trading back up.  It would be a steep price, because we don't know who covets him.  Poles has shown us that he probably won't do that.  In comes Brock Bowers.  He may be a bigger difference maker than MHJ.  TE's that run a 4.4 and have glue for hands are rarer than WR's not named Moss or Megatron.  Bowers is my pick.  With a FA side of Tee Higgins.

It's going to be a crazy 4 months of cuts, trades, FA signings, extensions and draft choices.  May the dominos fall our way.

Bear down!

Sign me up. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

The draft order absolutely will help decide what Poles does. Every year people talk up  QBs in the draft . In the last 5 yrs, only Burrow and Allen are a first round pick that you can call elite. Herbert, Tua, Lawrence, Murray, and Stroud will probably get there but I dont think one yr or QBs that arent winning can be considered just yet. Herbert seems great but he cant lift a team with good talent to win. Same reason people slam Fields. Tua has had a couple great yrs and is winning now, but just got a great coach, something we dont have here. 5 yrs 2 elite QBS taken in the first round with a few more close. Stroud looks good but you cant base elite on one yr. Murray is a big question mark, and Lawrence should be doing better than he has. 

So everyone saying you have to draft a QB high, the numbers dont agree with you and none of this matters. If Poles likes someone he will draft him, if he doesnt he will not just draft a lower QB for sake of change. Lance, Young, Wilson, D Jones, Haskins, Pickett, Ridder, the NFL is littered with fails. The next 3 games is not going to affect his opinion towards Justin, he already knows what he is going to do.

I dont think he planned to fire his coach after 2 yrs and blow everything up to start over again. His plan was a 4 yr to respectability, So if we dont get pick 1 or 2, his priority will shift. I suspect he goes into keep rebuilding the roster , trade his fist pick and fill needs. Im sure he could get several draft picks for the right to pick MHJ, or keep it and just do the right thing and take him then trade the other pick. 

I'll be clear - if the Bears currently had Herbert, Tua, and Stroud right now - I would not be advocating to pick a QB.  If they had Murray tied to that contract - I probably also wouldn't be advocating for a QB (and especially if it was Murray after his first 2-3 years - I would not have been advocating).  Lawrence - I'm in the same boat - he has a far better record than Fields. I'm not saying he is a no doubt elite QB - but all of those guys on the list have shown a heck of a lot more than Fields (at their respective points in their career).  

Similar - you threw out Watson in a previous post - I can question many things about Watson now - but his first 3-4 years, yeah, I wouldn't be even thinking about drafting a QB at #1 with him on board.  Tua is the one after 3 years I would have moved on and I would have been wrong (technically).

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I feel like the draft order is going to determine whether or not Eberflus is fired and/or Fields is brought back.

I think the drop off from Caleb Williams to Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is wide enough that I'm not sure the Bears consider moving off Fields for that. And, if you're not moving off Fields, you're probably not going to change coaches unless you can find one who is really sold on Fields.

This is true - I am very fearful of Bears falling out of top spot because I do think that changes the paradigm quite a bit.  I think there is a HUGE difference between Caleb and the field. That doesn't mean the field doesn't end up being better - but I think the eval on Williams is a heck of a lot cleaner.  

[Stinger226]

28 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I'll be clear - if the Bears currently had Herbert, Tua, and Stroud right now - I would not be advocating to pick a QB.  If they had Murray tied to that contract - I probably also wouldn't be advocating for a QB (and especially if it was Murray after his first 2-3 years - I would not have been advocating).  Lawrence - I'm in the same boat - he has a far better record than Fields. I'm not saying he is a no doubt elite QB - but all of those guys on the list have shown a heck of a lot more than Fields (at their respective points in their career).  

Similar - you threw out Watson in a previous post - I can question many things about Watson now - but his first 3-4 years, yeah, I wouldn't be even thinking about drafting a QB at #1 with him on board.  Tua is the one after 3 years I would have moved on and I would have been wrong (technically).

Of course because they have shown growth, it comes down to which QB to draft? People with their job on the line screw up , I trust Poles but have no idea who he likes or maybe none of them he views as elite. It's probably more to do with luck than evaluating who will be elite. I'm sure no one thought Brady was who he would be, or how good Prescott, Hurts, Wilson or even Purdy would be. ( good not elite yet). Watson was great but I don't think he is now. That just shows you how tough it is to be good for a career.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

As a friend of mine recently said, the ‘math ain’t mathin’ especially if you dive into some of the stats rather than just taking the raw numbers.  (And by the way I thought the 75% thing was a Harvard study, not an Adam thing).  Anyhow…

If we look at just the current starting QBs I counted  17 maybe 18 starting QBs were 1st rounders.  Thats closer to 50%.  Of those a few are retreads like Goff (2nd team), Stafford (2nd team), Mayfield (3rd or 4th(?) team), Trubisky (temp starter?  - 2nd team) and Winston although not a starter on his 2nd or 3rd team . A couple other 1st rounders were still waiting to see how they pan out; Herbert, Allen, Watson, Daniel and Mac Jones and Zach Wilson among them.  These guys still leave a lot to be desired as in becoming “elite” and being picked first in gym class.

Well I almost always agree. I always prefer watching film to parsing stats, Often the stats are misleading, especially out of context.

In this case Im just saying that the higher the draft pick, the better the chance that the player will be good. And that's self evident like I said.

The 30 year Harvard study from 2011 said this:

81% of #1 pick QBs are elite
39% of first round QB picks are elite
22% of first round QB picks are middle
39% of first round QB picks are busts
21% of second round QB picks are elite
6% of third round QB picks are elite

Of the list Adam compiled of the best 16 (was it 18?) or so QBs in the league right now, 75% were top 10 draft picks.

So we know there is risk in any pick, but we also know clearly that the higher the pick, the lesser the risk.

You cannot use stats alone to predict a player or to even understand their performances out of context. But you CAN use stats to talk about commodities like draft picks, which are not individual examples, which can be outliers to any statistic, but instead a collection of picks over many years.

And the point about gym class, was that each person picking players always picks the players they think are best. The more people (who have their own ideas of who will be good) pick, the fewer likely hidden gems there will be.

Yes, there are hidden gems, but no you cannot look for them on purpose, because you dont know they will be outliers. If you did, you would have already picked them earlier.

If for example anyone thought Brady would be who he turned out to be, even if EVERY OTHER team missed it, then that team would have taken him in the first round! ANyone would!

So the fact that you can sometimes find a hidden gem BY ACCIDENT is no STRATEGY for finding quality starters at the QB position.

That's all facts - no opinion included.
 

[AZ54]

12 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The for and against Fields conversation  will go on until the draft but several things come into play.

1st  we have to have the number 1 pick.. I think its Caleb Williams or Justin Fields. If Poles thinks Williams is the guy, he will take him. If we end up with the second or third pick that is out of the picture. Maye does not carry the clout that Williams does. Truth be told, both have been questioned about being great as we get closer to the draft. The third pick is probably the best player in the draft MHJ, if he is  there, he will take him. So now the conversation, is  there a QB prospect that has more upside than the upside of Fields?  The draft will bring more light to that issue. 

Others things Poles has to think about, Fields is a hard worker, born leader, and the team is totally behind him. So not only will Poles have to sell a new QB to the fan base but also to the players in the locker room. He more so has to make a determination, if he keeps Flus or not that will add to the keep Justin or not. If Flus stays I think he is more likely to keep Fields around, if he changes he more likely bring in a new QB. 

This is very complicated , its not just keep or dumb Fields. 

I keep hearing people say because we have the top pick 2 yrs in a row, we have to take a QB. That is ridiculous.

The top 4 teams in the National conference has a 7th round QB, 2nd round, 4th round and a first round that got traded because his team didnt think he was good enough. 

Out of the last 10 SB winning QBs only Peyton and Stafford were ist pick in the draft that won SBs and Stafford  did it  with his original team. 

The most constant traits with SB teams is a great coach and talented roster. OB matters but appears not to be the most important factor. 

Change my mind?

If the Bears weren’t my favorite team I couldnt think of a better player to replace Justin Fields.  But they are and I would not replace him with someone who has the exact same issues I read about here every day.  Add in that Justin is already a proven leader in the locker room and Williams is?
 

 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

If the Bears weren’t my favorite team I couldnt think of a better player to replace Justin Fields.  But they are and I would not replace him with someone who has the exact same issues I read about here every day.  Add in that Justin is already a proven leader in the locker room and Williams is

Totally. I may change my mind as I do research in February etc, but right now, Williams does not look like the answer to me either.

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

This is all correct. And it isn't an opinion - it's what GMs have done consistently. When they took Brady, they werent looking for a GOAT, they had Bledsoe. Sometimes GMs get lucky, but it's not like it was their STRATEGY to find the goat in the 6th round. We might get struck by lighting, or win the lottery, but for most of us that will never happen. Facts. And thank you for posting it!

The opinion comes into it when you ask for an eval on Justin. Some think he's great. Cool. I totally disagree, but if Poles thinks that, then he shouldnt draft a QB #1. That's where the opinion comes in.

But the rest of this draft a difference maker in the 4th round is nonsense. It just is. The fundamental misunderstanding in the argument "a lot of first round QBs bust" as a reason to take one later is just insane. The stats are clear. 81% of first pick QBs become elite. 39% of first round QBs become elite - top 10 even better, and another 22% of first rounders are decent. This is all according to the Harvard 30 year study Ive linked here a few times, including their definition of "elite" - it's arbitrary, but it's a set threshold to measure by, and it's the same threshold for every player evaluated, so it does provide a relative score that all play under equally whether you like the word they use for it or not. It's a loaded word, but it's a mathematical outcome no matter what word we might prefer to use as a descriptor for their methodology.

Adam also made the list of good QBs in the league right now. 75% of them were TOP TEN picks.

These are facts, and they are self evident. The best athlete in gym class isn't the guy taken last. Everyone knows it. It's crazy that we even debate it.

Yes, 19% of #1 pick QBs aren't elite. 39% of the rest of the round are busts. And that includes the whole first round it's better at the top of course. But 80% of second round QBs arent elite. Is that better? No its 400% worse than the #1 pick! That's math!

The argument for taking a franchise QB later is basically saying "theres no sure thing in the first round, so Ill dramatically increase my risk of failing to address that smaller risk in the first round." WHAT?!?

The argument that Fields is awesome is one I disagree with, but thats opinion. It isnt the same kind of WRONG as this STRATEGY to pick a franchise QB in a later round. It truly boggles my mind.

Other than thinking Fields is the man, the other reason to wait to take a starting QB until later rounds is to make the online draft games more fun. You can get a lot if you dont spend that first pick on a QB. And that's really fun. I like Madden too.

In fact, depending on how I end up grading out the rookie QBs, I might be cool with trading down the #1, or taking MHJr, and getting the QB with our second first rounder. All that depending on where we finish, and what I think of the QBs after I study them.

But to me Justin is NOT the man. He doesnt make the reads in time. He does everything at a high level except the core job of being a QB. And I dont think you can ignore that, or win big games with that, so I'm definitely trading Fields, and taking a QB in the top 10 or 15 picks of the 2024 draft.

This aint a movie, and no heroes ending to the season is gonna change the tape we now have on the guy. it is what it is. Fans can and will ignore it, but I think if you watch the film looking for reality and not a narrative, you gotta come to the same conclusion. It's there every week.

I think Poles fires Eberflus and trades Fields this year. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll make it past next season as GM, and we will all be miserable next year watching the rest of the team develop and lose games because our video game QB cant make the throws the way they're drawn up. There will be lots of highlights, but no playoff wins.

Who said their strategy was to draft a difference maker at QB in the 4th Rd?   

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Who said their strategy was to draft a difference maker at QB in the 4th Rd?   

This place is a hall of mirrors. I cant keep repeating.

I agree with what DABEARS wrote above.

I have said the same 5 things at least a billion times already. if you're trolling, I'm too polite to assume that. If you're really not sure, then I dont mean to be insulting by suggesting you're trolling.

This board used to be fun.