The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[BearFan PHX]

So if what i say is true about Daniels not making second reads, and we all here agree that Nabors AND Thomas are both top half of the first round WRs, then maybe we can see how Daniels' numbers are inflated by the fact that his first read was open a LOT between these two. We can aslo see how Justin Fields looked, even with his difficulty in reading defenses, at Ohio State surrounded by top three round draft picks. If everyone's open, then you don't need to do a lot of reading.

So we can see how it gets fuzzy to judge QBs in college when they dont really have to make second reads, or influence safeties. Im not saying Daniels cant learn to do that, but i am saying that youd be making a bet that he will, one which historically goes bad a lot (but not all) of the time.

On the other hand, we are fortunate that Williams was not surrounded by elite talent. He doesnt have anyone on his team from last year who will go in the first 3 rounds of the draft.

It's like judging a pass rusher from a team that has 3 good ones. You see the sacks come easy, but remove the help and they may or may not be able to produce on their own facing the main attention of the OL, double teams, rollouts etc.

Williams did all that alone. His biggest criticism being that he looked for big plays too much, but he was always needing 40 points to win, and he wasnt getting consistent open receivers either. Still there are many dozens of examples of him making quick reads, moving safeties, and finding second and third reads in tempo.

Some will say that Justin has the same excuses here in the NFL, But what Im saying is they arent excuses, because Williams put up big numbers with nothing anyway, and Justin didnt.

My point in bringing Daniels and Fields in is just to underline the point of the difficulty in projecting QB talent from college when they have lots of help, and how fortunate we are with Williams, to have that question already answered on film.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

So if what i say is true about Daniels not making second reads, and we all here agree that Nabors AND Thomas are both top half of the first round WRs, then maybe we can see how Daniels' numbers are inflated by the fact that his first read was open a LOT between these two. We can aslo see how Justin Fields looked, even with his difficulty in reading defenses, at Ohio State surrounded by top three round draft picks. If everyone's open, then you don't need to do a lot of reading.

So we can see how it gets fuzzy to judge QBs in college when they dont really have to make second reads, or influence safeties. Im not saying Daniels cant learn to do that, but i am saying that youd be making a bet that he will, one which historically goes bad a lot (but not all) of the time.

On the other hand, we are fortunate that Williams was not surrounded by elite talent. He doesnt have anyone on his team from last year who will go in the first 3 rounds of the draft.

It's like judging a pass rusher from a team that has 3 good ones. You see the sacks come easy, but remove the help and they may or may not be able to produce on their own facing the main attention of the OL, double teams, rollouts etc.

Williams did all that alone. His biggest criticism being that he looked for big plays too much, but he was always needing 40 points to win, and he wasnt getting consistent open receivers either. Still there are many dozens of examples of him making quick reads, moving safeties, and finding second and third reads in tempo.

Some will say that Justin has the same excuses here in the NFL, But what Im saying is they arent excuses, because Williams put up big numbers with nothing anyway, and Justin didnt.

My point in bringing Daniels and Fields in is just to underline the point of the difficulty in projecting QB talent from college when they have lots of help, and how fortunate we are with Williams, to have that question already answered on film.

Not everyone has the same opinion of Daniels. Scouts get paid to watch hundreds of hours of prospects to make judgment calls on prospects. A few hours of watching a prospect is not really enough time to truly judge a prospects game. So why do different scouts have different opinions on any prospect? 

Good WRs help any QB look better but also a good QB makes WRs look good to.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Not everyone has the same opinion of Daniels. Scouts get paid to watch hundreds of hours of prospects to make judgment calls on prospects. A few hours of watching a prospect is not really enough time to truly judge a prospects game. So why do different scouts have different opinions on any prospect? 

Good WRs help any QB look better but also a good QB makes WRs look good to.

and my point is that when a QB looks good without help, that makes them a lot easier to project into the NFL.

I think a lot of scouts look at the physical tools - there is a certain institutional arrogance in the NFL that if you get an athlete you can coach him into a football player. Other scouts, and fans like me, want to see football traits that translate to the next level.

I think the next couple of years will prove me right on Daniels, and we can talk about my prediction then, but my main point here was that Williams' stats and tape comes without help, and forces him to employ the full range of tools a QB needs to succeed. Others, blessed with college teams stocked with talent, don't have to go deep into that toolbox to succeed, so it makes it harder to predict if they are going to be able to do those things in the NFL.

I cant say they wont be able to do it, but i prefer someone who shows they already can?

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and my point is that when a QB looks good without help, that makes them a lot easier to project into the NFL.

I think a lot of scouts look at the physical tools - there is a certain institutional arrogance in the NFL that if you get an athlete you can coach him into a football player. Other scouts, and fans like me, want to see football traits that translate to the next level.

I think the next couple of years will prove me right on Daniels, and we can talk about my prediction then, but my main point here was that Williams' stats and tape comes without help, and forces him to employ the full range of tools a QB needs to succeed. Others, blessed with college teams stocked with talent, don't have to go deep into that toolbox to succeed, so it makes it harder to predict if they are going to be able to do those things in the NFL.

I cant say they wont be able to do it, but i prefer someone who shows they already can?

I'm A Williams fan, I'm just sure everything is  so black and white. I think a big gray area exists when it comes to coaching, talent around him, proper schemes. out of 4 high QB picks, history says 2 will fail, one may excel and one becomes serviceable. 

Williams excels

Maye bust

Daniels bust

McCarthy successful.

That's my opinion, to be fair busts as far as a high pick, not necessarily out of the league bust.

[BearFan PHX]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm A Williams fan, I'm just sure everything is  so black and white. I think a big gray area exists when it comes to coaching, talent around him, proper schemes. out of 4 high QB picks, history says 2 will fail, one may excel and one becomes serviceable. 

Williams excels

Maye bust

Daniels bust

McCarthy successful.

That's my opinion, to be fair busts as far as a high pick, not necessarily out of the league bust.

I tend to agree with your list.

I dont really care about historical odds, because they dont take into account the style of the player or the skill set, but i still end up pretty much where you are.

Williams shows all the skills needed for NFL success.

Daniels has great physical tools, but I havent seen him really do the job of "quarterbacking" maybe he will learn in the NFL - I cant say he wont - but he hasnt shown that yet.

Maye looks good reading defenses but has accuracy issues, and seems to lack that leadership thing. I cant say he wont be great, but it might take him a year or two to develop and work on footwork.

McCarthy has the mind for it, the skills of "quarterbacking" but he didnt throw as much at Michigan as the others did, and when he did the defenses were looking for run. Maybe he will be great in the NFL, I wouldnt be surprised, but its not a "sure thing" to me. I do figure he will be at least decent. He has a high floor.

[killakrzydav]

I think Maye is a bust

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, killakrzydav said:

I think Maye is a bust

I cant really argue that - he seems foggy to me right now, and thats surely not a good sign, but I cant swear he wont learn in the NFL.

[BearFan PHX]

OK, So if we take Caleb with pick #1, and we don't trade down, which of these players would you take with #9 if they were all available and a trade down wasn't an option? I'm not saying they'll all be available in reality, but it's just an exercise in ranking.

Also, if you choose Odunze, then please make a second pick if he is not available from this list at #9? Or if you prefer, make a ranked list of several, as long as you rank them.

Jared Verse DE
Laiatu Latu DE
Byron Murphy DT
Johnny Newton DT
Rome Odunze WR
Brian Thomas Jr WR
Brock Bowers TE
Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT
Troy Fautanu OT (or blue chip run blocking OG)
Jackson Powers-Johnson OC

I also think a list like this makes me feel like trading down as low as pick #18 is a likely scenario, but if these were the guys and you had to pick one at #9 who would it be?

If I HAD top pick one of these guys at #9, I guess Odunze would be the pick. But if he isn't available I kind of like all these guys, which is why I am asking the question. The only ones I might avoid are Latu if the medicals are iffy, and Im not sure yet about Fashanu, I need to see more film. Any of the others would definitely add something to our team.

Who do you think stands out?

[dawhizz]

New video from the official Bears site on the offseason acquisitions. They do a really nice job with these, IMO. 
 

https://www.chicagobears.com/video/ryan-poles-breaks-down-offseason-additions-1920-football-drive

[Stinger226]

43 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, So if we take Caleb with pick #1, and we don't trade down, which of these players would you take with #9 if they were all available and a trade down wasn't an option? I'm not saying they'll all be available in reality, but it's just an exercise in ranking.

Also, if you choose Odunze, then please make a second pick if he is not available from this list at #9? Or if you prefer, make a ranked list of several, as long as you rank them.

Jared Verse DE
Laiatu Latu DE
Byron Murphy DT
Johnny Newton DT
Rome Odunze WR
Brian Thomas Jr WR
Brock Bowers TE
Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT
Troy Fautanu OT (or blue chip run blocking OG)
Jackson Powers-Johnson OC

I also think a list like this makes me feel like trading down as low as pick #18 is a likely scenario, but if these were the guys and you had to pick one at #9 who would it be?

If I HAD top pick one of these guys at #9, I guess Odunze would be the pick. But if he isn't available I kind of like all these guys, which is why I am asking the question. The only ones I might avoid are Latu if the medicals are iffy, and Im not sure yet about Fashanu, I need to see more film. Any of the others would definitely add something to our team.

Who do you think stands out?

Is that the order you would draft?

If Odunze is there, I think we have to take him, only because Allen might be one and done. Otherwise I would have to go by your list. 

I like the trade back scenario getting a _2 nd round pick meaning we would have to at least drop to 20 to do that. Then it would be BPA between WR and DE. In the second get Zach Frazier. Then  it's a free fall. 

I think if we have 5 picks we can fill 4 needs OC, WR contributer, DE contributor. , either OL depth or 3 T depth.

[dawhizz]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, So if we take Caleb with pick #1, and we don't trade down, which of these players would you take with #9 if they were all available and a trade down wasn't an option? I'm not saying they'll all be available in reality, but it's just an exercise in ranking.

Also, if you choose Odunze, then please make a second pick if he is not available from this list at #9? Or if you prefer, make a ranked list of several, as long as you rank them.

Jared Verse DE
Laiatu Latu DE
Byron Murphy DT
Johnny Newton DT
Rome Odunze WR
Brian Thomas Jr WR
Brock Bowers TE
Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT
Troy Fautanu OT (or blue chip run blocking OG)
Jackson Powers-Johnson OC

I also think a list like this makes me feel like trading down as low as pick #18 is a likely scenario, but if these were the guys and you had to pick one at #9 who would it be?

If I HAD top pick one of these guys at #9, I guess Odunze would be the pick. But if he isn't available I kind of like all these guys, which is why I am asking the question. The only ones I might avoid are Latu if the medicals are iffy, and Im not sure yet about Fashanu, I need to see more film. Any of the others would definitely add something to our team.

Who do you think stands out?

I’m a little skeptical on Tome just because of the lack of separation I see, but I would still probably have to take him if he’s there. I kind of slowly warming to the Byron Muprhy idea - if he can split the difference between Aaron Donald and Calijah Kancey, you have a really good DT rotation - but I still think you have to address edge. I’m currently Verse/Latu/Turner but not real sold on that order (which is why I would favor a trade down if the WRs are gone and all three she’s are there). I can’t really get there on the OTs - I feel like it’s a good class but I don’t really love any of them for some reason. 

[Stinger226]

30 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

New video from the official Bears site on the offseason acquisitions. They do a really nice job with these, IMO. 
 

https://www.chicagobears.com/video/ryan-poles-breaks-down-offseason-additions-1920-football-drive

I like that video. I think Poles plays chess. Doesn't seem to be making the right moves, but we understand later in the game. Smart guy.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Meanwhile JJ is going back to his college # for next season. Last time we saw this Jackson changed to #4…after getting an updated contract.  😬

[killakrzydav]

Rome then Brock only

[killakrzydav]

Scratch that I’m talking Olu third. Everyone else besides Troy is a trade down pick. Troy isn’t on my radar whatsoever.

[AZ54]

On 4/9/2024 at 8:24 PM, BearFan PHX said:

and my point is that when a QB looks good without help, that makes them a lot easier to project into the NFL.

I think a lot of scouts look at the physical tools - there is a certain institutional arrogance in the NFL that if you get an athlete you can coach him into a football player. Other scouts, and fans like me, want to see football traits that translate to the next level.

I think the next couple of years will prove me right on Daniels, and we can talk about my prediction then, but my main point here was that Williams' stats and tape comes without help, and forces him to employ the full range of tools a QB needs to succeed. Others, blessed with college teams stocked with talent, don't have to go deep into that toolbox to succeed, so it makes it harder to predict if they are going to be able to do those things in the NFL.

I cant say they wont be able to do it, but i prefer someone who shows they already can?

I see Williams doing a whole lot of hero ball.  I see him survey the field but just as often ignore the easy wide open underneath route.   Or often bypass the late opening read in the middle.    I see him fast and loose with the ball when he scrambled.   I see him throw up prayers when under pressure.  He has a Gumby arm, quick release.   Great pocket awareness.   I see a whole lot of Kyler Murray.   Taller but not as fast.  
 

The best defense is a great offense.  Control the ball control the clock and keep your defense of the field.   That’s what worries me because that’s not how he played the game and even your assessment agrees with that.   He tried to put up 40 every game.  Take the open short route and maybe you win with 25pts.  
 

Elite 2min left game winning drives don’t require as much talent as smarts.  I would like to have seen him do more death by a thousand cut type drives mixed in with the big plays.   
 

The talent is all there but what I see on film leads to the part I’ll never know.  Is he humble enough to know what he doesn’t know and work to improve?

 For such an obvious first overall pick Poles has put in a lot of effort to figure that out.  On the other hand he’s seemingly done none of that with any other prospect.   Why?   Why make it blatantly obvious to the world you are only courting one QB yet refuse to say he’s your choice at #1?   
 

From a career standpoint Poles might survive drafting Williams if he fails.   Draft anyone else and that’s not likely unless it’s a home run.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 hours ago, AZ54 said:

From a career standpoint Poles might survive drafting Williams if he fails.   Draft anyone else and that’s not likely unless it’s a home run.

Speaking as a fan of trading the #1 overall allows him to choose more potential "blue chippers" than putting all in on the one "potential generational" pick.  To me that's by far less risky.  

I'm seeing more and more people say they don't expect great things from Caleb in year one but should do better in year two. While also saying most of the other QB prospects need at least one year on the bench (etc) before they will see results.  If what we hear and read is true and Poles and Waldron are building this great offensive machine, why couldn't any of the top 3-5 QBs succeed if they are also given that same year of growth?  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I'm seeing more and more people say they don't expect great things from Caleb in year one but should do better in year two. While also saying most of the other QB prospects need at least one year on the bench (etc) before they will see results.  If what we hear and read is true and Poles and Waldron are building this great offensive machine, why couldn't any of the top 3-5 QBs succeed if they are also given that same year of growth?  

Expect great things from Caleb, mixed with some learning curve. For example, he will need to throw some interceptions to figure out exactly how big the NFL windows are, and what the limit of his arm is.

The reason any top 3-5 QB can't succeed the same is because William's ceiling is higher. Look at Justin Fields. He has all the physical tools, but he didn't learn to pick apart NFL defenses. it's a mental thing. Or a talent at "quarterbacking" thing.

Every rookie faces a learning curve coming into the NFL but that doesnt mean they will all end up the same after a year of learning?

The fact is GREAT QBs only come along every so often. You dont walk away from them because you think you can coach up another player who is less valuable, and can get you other picks too because of the drop in value.

Fields and Trubisky should be perfect object lessons of this. It isn't just that they didn't have superbowl talent around them, they just arent as good at playing the QB position as Patrick Mahomes is, and they never will be.

[BearFan PHX]

18 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Scratch that I’m talking Olu third. Everyone else besides Troy is a trade down pick. Troy isn’t on my radar whatsoever.

Troy is an interesting OT prospect, but as a run blocking guard he could be a top 5 in the league type.

I totally agree there are other names on that list more worthy of the #9 pick, but I put him in there because I do think he could be a real blue chip guard. Everyone talks about him as a tackle, but I watched some film, and he looks like an NFL guard more than tackle to my eyes at least.

[killakrzydav]

He's a guard I agree.  I don't think he's a tackle at all

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

He's a guard I agree.  I don't think he's a tackle at all

youre right, he isnt a tackle, and no one wants to spend a #9 on a Guard, but he looks like hes a road grader in the run game. I'd LOVE to have him, but not at the expense of the other options we will have at #9 or down to #18ish

[Pixote]

Gotta love Montez Sweat.

First, today I read he is adamant that the Bears are NOT going to lose to the Packers. He has only played one game as a Bear against the Packers, and we lost. He's had enough, already.

Second, I now read he is predicting a huge year for Gervon Dexter. If he is right, the defense takes another step toward total domination.

Quote

Sweat recently appeared on the Green Light Podcast with Chris Long, where he had high praise for defensive tackle Gervon Dexter, even going so far to predict a breakout season for last year’s second-round rookie.

“You’re gonna see man. He’s pretty good,” Sweat said about Dexter. “I feel like he’s still just kind of unlocking himself and being himself. And I think that’s gonna really flourish this year, but he’s a really talented kid. He’s one of those quick [defensive] tackles and was strong as hell. It’s really is really a sight to see. But yeah, he’s gonna jump out on on the scene for sure.”

 

[Mongo3451]

16 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Second, I now read he is predicting a huge year for Gervon Dexter. If he is right, the defense takes another step toward total domination.

Dexter was a guy I slated as "country strong" last year.  With a year of NFL training, he should be a beast.  It doesn't hurt that he was on the rise the sending half of the season.  Ultimately, I haven't envisioned him as a 3tech.  He will be a terminator at 1tech once his body matures...

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Gotta love Montez Sweat.

First, today I read he is adamant that the Bears are NOT going to lose to the Packers. He has only played one game as a Bear against the Packers, and we lost. He's had enough, already.

Second, I now read he is predicting a huge year for Gervon Dexter. If he is right, the defense takes another step toward total domination.

 

A freakin Men!

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Dexter was a guy I slated as "country strong" last year.  With a year of NFL training, he should be a beast.  It doesn't hurt that he was on the rise the sending half of the season.  Ultimately, I haven't envisioned him as a 3tech.  He will be a terminator at 1tech once his body matures...

he does seem more like a run stopping 1T, but I think Poles and Flus see something in him that tells them otherwise.

I agree usually pure strength is a 1T attribute, and he was so slow off the snap when he was drafted, but every week for the first half of the year he got faster until he was off the ball as fast as anyone on the line - that tells me that I cant predict his ceiling based on what ive already seen - who knows how this guy can grow!