How long is Caleb’s leash?

[jason]

All year it’s been kind of the same. Flashes of brilliance mixed with horrific accuracy and suspect mechanics.

I keep waiting for a huge, breakout game. A ridiculous game that displays why he was the #1 pick. Something that shows him carrying the team instead of just being part of it. Then one or two fairly dominating games where he puts up big stats. Hell, even Shadeur Sanders had one today.

So how long is his leash? He’s clearly not performing like a #1 pick when missing simple throws and obvious reads. The last play of the game was a brutal demonstration of both. He made the read very late when the WR was wide open. Then made a weak throw with poor anticipation. And to make things worse, DJ leaked out on an underneath route wide open. He would have walked in for a TD.

So, again, how long is his leash?

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, jason said:

All year it’s been kind of the same. Flashes of brilliance mixed with horrific accuracy and suspect mechanics.

I keep waiting for a huge, breakout game. A ridiculous game that displays why he was the #1 pick. Something that shows him carrying the team instead of just being part of it. Then one or two fairly dominating games where he puts up big stats. Hell, even Shadeur Sanders had one today.

So how long is his leash? He’s clearly not performing like a #1 pick when missing simple throws and obvious reads. The last play of the game was a brutal demonstration of both. He made the read very late when the WR was wide open. Then made a weak throw with poor anticipation. And to make things worse, DJ leaked out on an underneath route wide open. He would have walked in for a TD.

So, again, how long is his leash?

I asked the same question awhile back as far as how long will BJ stick with Caleb and said the middle of next year if he doesn't get better but know he's got until the end of next year. 

[Mongo3451]

As long as we win games, it will be long.

[Stinger226]

Everyone complained a lot last year when we were 5-12. I see a lot of complaining at 9-4 . As much as there's 's many areas that can stand improving but let's keep it in perspective. I would have preferred we went undefeated untill the playoffs but realism sneaks in. I think we win the next two games that should get us in the playoffs . Probably not on the road in SF but Detroit is still doable. 

Is 11-6 or 12-5 good enough to make people happy?

[adam]

I don't think there will be any kind of leash for awhile, if ever. 

Williams and Nix have nearly identical numbers, but DEN's defense has allowed 100 fewer pts on the season. Winning and the rest of the team really make a difference in perception.

Maye - 25 TD - 6 INT
Williams - 23 TD - 6 INT
Nix - 23 TD - 9 INT

Bears non-QBs have 2 more rushing TDs than the Pats, so as offenses, NE and CHI have scored the same number of TDs.

Daniels is playing below replacement level, but I don't think Daniels is on any kind of leash. 

 

If Williams connects with Kmet, but then they fail the 2XP conversion, the end result is the same, but most people would probably feel a lot better about Williams. 

The biggest conversation is Williams Comp%/Accuracy, but to me, it's only 2-3 passes a game. He has started 27 straight games with 0-1 INTs, and has only thrown 2 INTs in a game twice in his career, Game 2 and 3.

 

Winning has sped up the development process, which comes with higher expectations. If the Bears make the playoffs, and Williams' numbers are better than last year, he has met my expectations for the first year of a new system following whatever last year was.

Stuff like this also has to be taken into consideration. He had the highest unblocked pressure rate last year, and this year, he has yet to take a sack when there is an unblocked pass rusher, which is mind boggling considering the types of Pash Rushers he has faced.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

If Williams connects with Kmet, but then they fail the 2XP conversion, the end result is the same, but most people would probably feel a lot better about Williams. 

This.  

I agree that yesterday’s loss wasn’t all on Williams. I’d put it closer to an 80/20 split, with the defense carrying most of the blame. Aside from the early sack and INT, they really didn’t make any impact plays the rest of the game—even with several key starters back on the field.

Williams did flash at times, especially late (why can't he do this the WHOLE game?). That second-to-last drive—where they chewed up a ton of clock—was a thing of beauty. The run game was wearing the defense down, and Williams’ passes were quicker and more controlled. Honestly, they should’ve stuck with more of that approach and leaned into the basic WCO concepts that worked so well against Philly.

Also saw a GB fan point out on social media that the interception play was basically identical—in formation and personnel—to the Bears’ game-sealing score against Philly the week before. His comment was, “You don’t think we watch game film?” Hard to argue with that.

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

This.  

I agree that yesterday’s loss wasn’t all on Williams. I’d put it closer to an 80/20 split, with the defense carrying most of the blame. Aside from the early sack and INT, they really didn’t make any impact plays the rest of the game—even with several key starters back on the field.

Williams did flash at times, especially late (why can't he do this the WHOLE game?). That second-to-last drive—where they chewed up a ton of clock—was a thing of beauty. The run game was wearing the defense down, and Williams’ passes were quicker and more controlled. Honestly, they should’ve stuck with more of that approach and leaned into the basic WCO concepts that worked so well against Philly.

Also saw a GB fan point out on social media that the interception play was basically identical—in formation and personnel—to the Bears’ game-sealing score against Philly the week before. His comment was, “You don’t think we watch game film?” Hard to argue with that.

And if you saw the underneath defenders, they were all over that play. They are not going to win every game in that fashion, and it should not come down to that, but no team is going to win many games when your defense is allowing 4 TDs per game. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Is 11-6 or 12-5 good enough to make people happy?

Agreed that we aren't out of the playoffs yet. Not by a long shot.  I still believe the team can win against Cleveland, SF, Detroit and GB.  Will they?  Depends on what they've learned in their losses.  The Detroit game earlier this year was a mass killing whereas yesterday's loss was much more palatable...but still sucks considering who it was. If for nothing else it does show some improvement over the season.  And it really highlights how vulnerable our team was with only a +6 point winning differential going into yesterday's game, versus +36(?) for GB.  

[adam]

11 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Agreed that we aren't out of the playoffs yet. Not by a long shot.  I still believe the team can win against Cleveland, SF, Detroit and GB.  Will they?  Depends on what they've learned in their losses.  The Detroit game earlier this year was a mass killing whereas yesterday's loss was much more palatable...but still sucks considering who it was. If for nothing else it does show some improvement over the season.  And it really highlights how vulnerable our team was with only a +6 point winning differential going into yesterday's game, versus +36(?) for GB.  

I would love for them to get the next two, then at least split with SF and DET. 11 wins gets you in, especially if DET and GB lose this week, but 12 wins keeps you in the #1 Seed contention. The MIN game in Week 1, really, really, really sucks now.

The differential is such a hard thing to use, as it doesn't take any context into account.  There are a lot of garbage time TDs that pad stats on both sides. CAR has a winning record but is -61 while KC has a losing record but is +63?

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

This.  

I agree that yesterday’s loss wasn’t all on Williams. I’d put it closer to an 80/20 split, with the defense carrying most of the blame. Aside from the early sack and INT, they really didn’t make any impact plays the rest of the game—even with several key starters back on the field.

Williams did flash at times, especially late (why can't he do this the WHOLE game?). That second-to-last drive—where they chewed up a ton of clock—was a thing of beauty. The run game was wearing the defense down, and Williams’ passes were quicker and more controlled. Honestly, they should’ve stuck with more of that approach and leaned into the basic WCO concepts that worked so well against Philly.

Also saw a GB fan point out on social media that the interception play was basically identical—in formation and personnel—to the Bears’ game-sealing score against Philly the week before. His comment was, “You don’t think we watch game film?” Hard to argue with that.

TE was still open.  Ball was under thrown  which is common when throwing football in very cold weather.  We saw that all game from both QBs.but definitively more from Caleb.  

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

TE was still open.  Ball was under thrown  which is common when throwing football in very cold weather.  We saw that all game from both QBs.but definitively more from Caleb.  

exactly. We were within one play of tying and possibly winning this game. We lost, and that's OK, but we took a step this week, and Im glad to see it.

Next year, the defensive line should get a lot more attention. If we had a pass rush, we would have won yesterday. What we are doing without one is incredible, but we need one.

And to be fair, we knew all of this before the season started. We said:

Johnson needs to change the culture

Caleb needs to grow

10 wins would be a great goal, possibly sniff the playoffs

We dont have a pass rush, so that is going to be a problem