Playoffs!!!

[Bears4Ever_34]

22 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I'm sure Detroit will have plenty of motivation.

Question: If they win out, and GB drops their next two, doesn't that give them 2nd place in the NFCN?

If yes, does that put Detroit in as #7 seed?

Yes, but GB isn't likely to lose out. That's why I said they'll probably be eliminated before the week 18 game.

[adam]

If SF loses to IND, the Bears should be favored the last two weeks.

SEA has to play in CAR, and then in SF to close out the season. They just have to lose one of those for the Bears to have a shot at the #1 Seed. 

LAR should easily win out against ATL and ARZ to finish 13-4 and 8-4. So depending on what SEA does, they could end up as a 13-win 5-seed playing an away playoff game in CAR or TB. 

GB @ CHI (3rd meeting in 6 weeks)
SF @ PHI 
SEA/LAR @ CAR/TB (CAR beat LAR, TB beat SEA)

The Divisional Round could then look like:

PHI/SF @ CHI (Week 13 or 17 Rematch)
LAR @ SEA (3rd meeting in 10 weeks)

NFCC: CHI @ SEA or LAR @ CHI (This would be crazy, because the 5th seed would have to travel to the East Coast for the Wild Card, then to SEA/LAR for the Divisional round, then potentially to CHI for the NFCC. 

 

No matter the outcome, the #1 seed is more than likely playing the #5 Seed in the Divisional Round, which should be SEA or LAR, unless the 6 or 7 seed wins in the Wild Card round. You only want to have to play the #1 seed or the #5 seed, not both because they could be the top 2 teams in the conference.

[adam]

I didn't like the fake ranking systems that just used "feels" to figure out how good teams are, so I made my own. On the left I have a raw score, then on the far right, a weighted ranking. The Bears are 10th raw and 5th weighted which takes into account turnover differential. I am adding Explosive Differential next to make it even more refined. However, without knowing the outcome beforehand, Rams being #1 and Jaguars being #2 (after beating DEN) feels pretty good. Does any team look out of place?

Just based on tiers, LAR is in their own tier, then JAX, SEA, HOU, and CHI are probably in Tier 2, followed by BUF, DEN, and NE. 

[Stinger226]

At first I wanted SF to lose but I hope they win so we knock them out of the potential first seed. That's a playoff game next week.

[adam]

10 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

At first I wanted SF to lose but I hope they win so we knock them out of the potential first seed. That's a playoff game next week.

SF jumped up with that win. Now it is #5 CHI vs #8 SF. A Bears win and they would move into the top 3, an SF win, and they would move into the top 5. Huge game. 

[BearFan PHX]

They are all playoff games now.

[Stinger226]

This is worth the listen if you want to feel good about being a bear's fan. Touches every point.

 

[adam]

Love out against BAL, Willis in. Willis vs Huntley. A GB loss guarantees the Division for the Bears. It would be all seeding for the final two weeks.

[Stinger226]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

Love out against BAL, Willis in. Willis vs Huntley. A GB loss guarantees the Division for the Bears. It would be all seeding for the final two weeks.

Willis is one hit away from being out of the game. He has limited practices all week. It could get ugly fast. Plus Wilson is the only healthy RB.

[jason]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Willis is one hit away from being out of the game. He has limited practices all week. It could get ugly fast. Plus Wilson is the only healthy RB.

Then I hope he gets blasted on the first possession. It’s not enough for the packers to lose. They must suffer.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

12 hours ago, jason said:

Then I hope he gets blasted on the first possession. It’s not enough for the packers to lose. They must suffer.

I’m hearing from my Packer “friends” they were all sure that Tune (their third stringer) would start.  Reports say it was a close call and because they didn’t sign another QB (with Love ruled out) they speculate that Willis is the starter but ‘questionably’.  Evidently he may have been hurt during that last sack from Sweat at the end of regulation and also dealing with some sort of illness(?).   I feel really good about the Ravens’ chances tonight.  

[Mongo3451]

I saw something on Caleb doing what they call the "Iceman".  Coincidence or not, that motion means "bear" in sign language.

[adam]

Packers lose to Huntley led Ravens in GB. Bears are NFC North champs. Wild.

[BearFan2000]

With the Seahawks win today I think they have clinched the 1 seed. I believe unless we lose out and Philly wins out we’re pretty much locked into the 2 seed. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

54 minutes ago, BearFan2000 said:

With the Seahawks win today I think they have clinched the 1 seed. I believe unless we lose out and Philly wins out we’re pretty much locked into the 2 seed. 

If bears win out and seahawk lose next week to niners then bears have 1 seed. Problem is I think if niners lose they probably sit their starters next week vs Seahawks 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan2000 said:

With the Seahawks win today I think they have clinched the 1 seed. I believe unless we lose out and Philly wins out we’re pretty much locked into the 2 seed. 

Was just gonna ask about this.   As it stands currently Bears could get #1 (week off), get #2 and replay the Pack or #3 and play the Eagles (again) or NFC South champ?  

[BearFan PHX]

It's possible the Niners will play the Seahawks hard, but i can see them resting people too.

I guess I'm used to the games not mattering much this time of year, but usually it's because we are out of it, not because we have the division locked up and a likely 2nd seed.

Lets Go!

[Pixote]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

If bears win out and seahawk lose next week to niners then bears have 1 seed. Problem is I think if niners lose they probably sit their starters next week vs Seahawks 

If the Bears win X2, would SF rest starters and allow Seattle to have the #1 seed? Would that be to their advantage? Or would they prefer the Bears have the #1 seed and vie for seeding position with Seattle?

I find it hard to believe they would want Seattle to have the #1 seed. 

[Stinger226]

19 minutes ago, Pixote said:

If the Bears win X2, would SF rest starters and allow Seattle to have the #1 seed? Would that be to their advantage? Or would they prefer the Bears have the #1 seed and vie for seeding position with Seattle?

I find it hard to believe they would want Seattle to have the #1 seed. 

I don't  think any team wants to lose games at the end of the season and lose the momentum they have built up. Both of these teams have something to play for.

[adam]

Next will be interesting to see what Ben Johnson does. He does not seem like the type of coach that will rest people and concede anything, especially against DET. 

A win in Week 18, the Bears would be locked into the #2 Seed with a game against GB.

A loss is basically a game against the loser of SEA@SF. So instead of GB coming back to CHI, you get either SF or SEA.  SF is 7-2 on the road, SEA is 7-1 (would be 7-2 with loss to SF) while GB is 4-3-1 on the road.

So do you rest players all but guaranteeing a game against SEA or SF, or do you play everyone and go into a game with no rest while your opponent got a week off resting their players in Week 18 (GB resting players against MIN because they can't change their seeding)?

 

[adam]

So is it better to play GB in CHI on short rest (with GB coming off a bye) or SEA/SF with equal rest?

[Bears4Ever_34]

47 minutes ago, adam said:

Next will be interesting to see what Ben Johnson does. He does not seem like the type of coach that will rest people and concede anything, especially against DET. 

A win in Week 18, the Bears would be locked into the #2 Seed with a game against GB.

A loss is basically a game against the loser of SEA@SF. So instead of GB coming back to CHI, you get either SF or SEA.  SF is 7-2 on the road, SEA is 7-1 (would be 7-2 with loss to SF) while GB is 4-3-1 on the road.

So do you rest players all but guaranteeing a game against SEA or SF, or do you play everyone and go into a game with no rest while your opponent got a week off resting their players in Week 18 (GB resting players against MIN because they can't change their seeding)?

 

Absolutely not.

#1. You want as many home games as possible.

#2. You would rather play the Packers than any of the NFC West teams in the first round.

#3. You don't want to walk into the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak.

Whether you want to call it momentum or confidence, I think psychologically, you don't want to put the team in a situation where a sense of doubt starts to creep in right before the biggest game of the season.

They need to bury the Lions, build on that offensive performance from last night, and hopefully rebound from that putrid performance on defense.

[adam]

8 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Absolutely not, for a few reasons:

#1. You want as many home games as possible.

#2. You would rather play the Packers than any of the NFC West teams in the first round.

#3. You don't want to walk into the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak.

Whether you want to call it momentum or confidence, I think psychologically, you don't want to put the team in a situation where a sense of doubt starts to creep in right before the biggest game of the season. 

Here are the projected paths:

#2 Seed - at least 2 home games, one vs GB, and the DIV round vs PHI or Week 18 loser of SEA/SF. Possibly a 3rd home game for NFCC vs LAR (LAR beats #1 Seed).

#3 Seed - at least 1 home game, on road in PHI for DIV round or at home vs LAR in DIV Round (if GB beat PHI).

 

The #1 Seeds make the SB 50% of the time, so there is a high chance that one of the two #1 seeds will make the SB. However, in the last 5 years, only one #1 Seed has won it (KC). If you take KC out of the equation, non-KC teams are 6-7 in the playoffs as #1 Seeds with only 2 SB visits (both losses).
 

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, adam said:

So is it better to play GB in CHI on short rest (with GB coming off a bye) or SEA/SF with equal rest?

Pros & cons for both scenarios. However, the thought of sending Packer players and their fans home after eliminating them from the playoffs would add to an already fantastic year for Bear fans.