Week 18 Official Game Thread - DET @ CHI, SUN, 3:25PM, JAN 4th, CHI -2.5, O/U 49.5, FOX

[adam]

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. 

My hope is DET doesn't risk Week 18 injuries for their core players and the Bears can handily win and put the game out of reach by halftime, then rest their own starters with the game in hand.

Bears 30-10. Bears get locked into the #2 Seed with a home playoff game against GB the following weekend. GB would be in MIN having to travel back home, then to CHI for WC Weekend.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I’m good playing whoever - house money. But I get the fact that 2 seed gets you potential 2 home games and if the 1 seed gets upset you have 3 (if you can handle your business). 
 

My presumption is they sit Rome but otherwise are going to play their starters. Is Kyler eligible to come off practice squad? I was surprised JJ was off the field for almost whole 3rd quarter - he says he’s healthy. Is he in doghouse or something or are they really managing snap count? 

[adam]

23 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’m good playing whoever - house money. But I get the fact that 2 seed gets you potential 2 home games and if the 1 seed gets upset you have 3 (if you can handle your business). 
 

My presumption is they sit Rome but otherwise are going to play their starters. Is Kyler eligible to come off practice squad? I was surprised JJ was off the field for almost whole 3rd quarter - he says he’s healthy. Is he in doghouse or something or are they really managing snap count? 

With how the Bears have played at home vs on the road, it just feels like guaranteeing the most home games is the most ideal route. Their last 4 losses have been on the road and their only home loss was what ended up as the Week 1 fluke against MIN.

[Pixote]

I just read that Sewell tore his Achilles and will be out for the year (and probably the start of next year).

The good news is that Burden's injury at the end of the game was a quad injury, but it isn't believed to be serious.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. 

I’m not entirely sure what happened with Detroit this year, and I’m not convinced that BJ leaving was the root cause of their issues. One thing I heard in conversations with my Lions-fan neighbor was frustration over how much less Montgomery was used compared to previous seasons—especially mid-season. That may have been injury-related, but it clearly stood out to them.

Interestingly, Goff’s numbers didn’t really take a significant hit year over year:

• 2024 Goff: 4,629 yards, 37 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.4% completion

• 2025 Goff: 4,233 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 68.3% completion (as of today)

The most noticeable difference for the Lions, though, is their performance in close games. Last year they were 7-2 in one-possession wins; this year they’re 2-5. Hmm… where have we seen that before?

All that said, do you think Johnson might want a little revenge for the 52–21 beating they put on us earlier this year? I agree that neither side will go all-out if there’s a risk of injuries, but in the end, I think Chicago pulls off the win.

[adam]

42 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m not entirely sure what happened with Detroit this year, and I’m not convinced that BJ leaving was the root cause of their issues. One thing I heard in conversations with my Lions-fan neighbor was frustration over how much less Montgomery was used compared to previous seasons—especially mid-season. That may have been injury-related, but it clearly stood out to them.

Interestingly, Goff’s numbers didn’t really take a significant hit year over year:

• 2024 Goff: 4,629 yards, 37 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.4% completion

• 2025 Goff: 4,233 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 68.3% completion (as of today)

The most noticeable difference for the Lions, though, is their performance in close games. Last year they were 7-2 in one-possession wins; this year they’re 2-5. Hmm… where have we seen that before?

All that said, do you think Johnson might want a little revenge for the 52–21 beating they put on us earlier this year? I agree that neither side will go all-out if there’s a risk of injuries, but in the end, I think Chicago pulls off the win.

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year.

DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. 

This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). 

So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency.

3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop.

% of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop.

 

The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14).

The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain.

% of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain.

So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears.

 

It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy. 

[AZ54]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year.

DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. 

This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). 

So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency.

3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop.

% of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop.

 

The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14).

The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain.

% of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain.

So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears.

 

It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy. 

Those combined cap hits are insane.  

[Pixote]

9 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Those combined cap hits are insane.  

And when Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson demands a new contract, their cap gets another huge hit.

He was drafted in 2022, so he will be talking to his agent soon.

[Mongo3451]

33 minutes ago, Pixote said:

And when Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson demands a new contract, their cap gets another huge hit.

He was drafted in 2022, so he will be talking to his agent soon.

Hutchinson is signed through 2031.  They did it this summer.

[Pixote]

10 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Hutchinson is signed through 2031.  They did it this summer.

Damn, he did it really early. I didn't recall hearing about it.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year.

 Goff is still hovering around a 70% completion rate — a level Johnson wants Williams to aim for.

This year, Caleb’s been stuck in the high-50s (roughly 58%). Logic suggests that should improve next season.

And because Bears fandom is nothing if not cruelly self-aware… I saw someone point out today that if Williams cracks 4,000 passing yards, it won’t just be the first time a Bears QB has ever done it — he’ll also owe a thank-you note to the 17-game schedule.

 🤷‍♂️