Week 18 Official Game Thread - DET @ CHI, SUN, 3:25PM, JAN 4th, CHI -2.5, O/U 49.5, FOX

[adam]

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. 

My hope is DET doesn't risk Week 18 injuries for their core players and the Bears can handily win and put the game out of reach by halftime, then rest their own starters with the game in hand.

Bears 30-10. Bears get locked into the #2 Seed with a home playoff game against GB the following weekend. GB would be in MIN having to travel back home, then to CHI for WC Weekend.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I’m good playing whoever - house money. But I get the fact that 2 seed gets you potential 2 home games and if the 1 seed gets upset you have 3 (if you can handle your business). 
 

My presumption is they sit Rome but otherwise are going to play their starters. Is Kyler eligible to come off practice squad? I was surprised JJ was off the field for almost whole 3rd quarter - he says he’s healthy. Is he in doghouse or something or are they really managing snap count? 

[adam]

23 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’m good playing whoever - house money. But I get the fact that 2 seed gets you potential 2 home games and if the 1 seed gets upset you have 3 (if you can handle your business). 
 

My presumption is they sit Rome but otherwise are going to play their starters. Is Kyler eligible to come off practice squad? I was surprised JJ was off the field for almost whole 3rd quarter - he says he’s healthy. Is he in doghouse or something or are they really managing snap count? 

With how the Bears have played at home vs on the road, it just feels like guaranteeing the most home games is the most ideal route. Their last 4 losses have been on the road and their only home loss was what ended up as the Week 1 fluke against MIN.

[Pixote]

I just read that Sewell tore his Achilles and will be out for the year (and probably the start of next year).

The good news is that Burden's injury at the end of the game was a quad injury, but it isn't believed to be serious.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. 

I’m not entirely sure what happened with Detroit this year, and I’m not convinced that BJ leaving was the root cause of their issues. One thing I heard in conversations with my Lions-fan neighbor was frustration over how much less Montgomery was used compared to previous seasons—especially mid-season. That may have been injury-related, but it clearly stood out to them.

Interestingly, Goff’s numbers didn’t really take a significant hit year over year:

• 2024 Goff: 4,629 yards, 37 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.4% completion

• 2025 Goff: 4,233 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 68.3% completion (as of today)

The most noticeable difference for the Lions, though, is their performance in close games. Last year they were 7-2 in one-possession wins; this year they’re 2-5. Hmm… where have we seen that before?

All that said, do you think Johnson might want a little revenge for the 52–21 beating they put on us earlier this year? I agree that neither side will go all-out if there’s a risk of injuries, but in the end, I think Chicago pulls off the win.

[adam]

42 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m not entirely sure what happened with Detroit this year, and I’m not convinced that BJ leaving was the root cause of their issues. One thing I heard in conversations with my Lions-fan neighbor was frustration over how much less Montgomery was used compared to previous seasons—especially mid-season. That may have been injury-related, but it clearly stood out to them.

Interestingly, Goff’s numbers didn’t really take a significant hit year over year:

• 2024 Goff: 4,629 yards, 37 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.4% completion

• 2025 Goff: 4,233 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 68.3% completion (as of today)

The most noticeable difference for the Lions, though, is their performance in close games. Last year they were 7-2 in one-possession wins; this year they’re 2-5. Hmm… where have we seen that before?

All that said, do you think Johnson might want a little revenge for the 52–21 beating they put on us earlier this year? I agree that neither side will go all-out if there’s a risk of injuries, but in the end, I think Chicago pulls off the win.

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year.

DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. 

This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). 

So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency.

3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop.

% of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop.

 

The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14).

The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain.

% of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain.

So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears.

 

It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy. 

[AZ54]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year.

DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. 

This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). 

So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency.

3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop.

% of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop.

 

The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14).

The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain.

% of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain.

So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears.

 

It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy. 

Those combined cap hits are insane.  

[Pixote]

9 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Those combined cap hits are insane.  

And when Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson demands a new contract, their cap gets another huge hit.

He was drafted in 2022, so he will be talking to his agent soon.

[Mongo3451]

33 minutes ago, Pixote said:

And when Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson demands a new contract, their cap gets another huge hit.

He was drafted in 2022, so he will be talking to his agent soon.

Hutchinson is signed through 2031.  They did it this summer.

[Pixote]

10 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Hutchinson is signed through 2031.  They did it this summer.

Damn, he did it really early. I didn't recall hearing about it.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year.

 Goff is still hovering around a 70% completion rate — a level Johnson wants Williams to aim for.

This year, Caleb’s been stuck in the high-50s (roughly 58%). Logic suggests that should improve next season.

And because Bears fandom is nothing if not cruelly self-aware… I saw someone point out today that if Williams cracks 4,000 passing yards, it won’t just be the first time a Bears QB has ever done it — he’ll also owe a thank-you note to the 17-game schedule.

 🤷‍♂️

[Stinger226]

The 4000 pedestal is like the 1000 pedistal for RBs. It sounds good but isn't really any big deal anymore. I think the TD to intercept is a better indicator of a good QB. I think Caleb is 24-6? I guessed at that so that may not be right.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think the TD to intercept is a better indicator of a good QB. I think Caleb is 24-6? I guessed at that so that may not be right.

Actually, not too bad. So far this season he’s at 25 TDs to 6 INTs (45/12 overall), which is encouraging—especially in crunch time when you need results. It lowers the likelihood of costly mistakes under pressure. I remember thinking that last night as the game was winding down: at least we don’t have to worry as much about him throwing an interception.  Of course part of that is also that he's been sending more balls into the sidelines which also figures into his passing efficiency (not just the drops).  

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 Goff is still hovering around a 70% completion rate — a level Johnson wants Williams to aim for.

This year, Caleb’s been stuck in the high-50s (roughly 58%). Logic suggests that should improve next season.

And because Bears fandom is nothing if not cruelly self-aware… I saw someone point out today that if Williams cracks 4,000 passing yards, it won’t just be the first time a Bears QB has ever done it — he’ll also owe a thank-you note to the 17-game schedule.

 🤷‍♂️

And that has never helped any other QB.  Regardless, never been done means never been done.  

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 Goff is still hovering around a 70% completion rate — a level Johnson wants Williams to aim for.

This year, Caleb’s been stuck in the high-50s (roughly 58%). Logic suggests that should improve next season.

And because Bears fandom is nothing if not cruelly self-aware… I saw someone point out today that if Williams cracks 4,000 passing yards, it won’t just be the first time a Bears QB has ever done it — he’ll also owe a thank-you note to the 17-game schedule.

 🤷‍♂️

Oh Skip, please just follow the growth and ,most importantly, the eye test...

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, adam said:

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. 

My hope is DET doesn't risk Week 18 injuries for their core players and the Bears can handily win and put the game out of reach by halftime, then rest their own starters with the game in hand.

Bears 30-10. Bears get locked into the #2 Seed with a home playoff game against GB the following weekend. GB would be in MIN having to travel back home, then to CHI for WC Weekend.

There is zero chance Dan Campbell goes down without a fight.  Tough year but I can see him telling his team let’s close it out against the division leader and let them know we’ll be back.  

[Stinger226]

24 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

There is zero chance Dan Campbell goes down without a fight.  Tough year but I can see him telling his team let’s close it out against the division leader and let them know we’ll be back.  

The way both them coaches are risk takers and competitive, no way either relax in this game.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Actually, not too bad. So far this season he’s at 25 TDs to 6 INTs (45/12 overall), which is encouraging—especially in crunch time when you need results. It lowers the likelihood of costly mistakes under pressure. I remember thinking that last night as the game was winding down: at least we don’t have to worry as much about him throwing an interception.  Of course part of that is also that he's been sending more balls into the sidelines which also figures into his passing efficiency (not just the drops).  

I think Caleb's Career TD to INTO ratio is actually number 2 all time. With Rodgers, Brady and Mahomes all on that list. But to qualify you need to have thrown at least 1500 passes and Caleb only has just over 1,000 right now.

But his TD/INT ratio would be 2nd all time only behind Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

57 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think Caleb's Career TD to INTO ratio is actually number 2 all time. With Rodgers, Brady and Mahomes all on that list. But to qualify you need to have thrown at least 1500 passes and Caleb only has just over 1,000 right now.

But his TD/INT ratio would be 2nd all time only behind Aaron Rodgers.

 

I think it safe to say unless he suddenly goes odd the rails and starts air mailing throws he’ll keep that ratio down.  He’s pretty consistent with that much. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Oh Skip, please just follow the growth and ,most importantly, the eye test...

Sh*t don’t you start now.  I’ll be happy when this stuff repeats itself (and better) next year - and beyond.  I have no reason at this point to believe it won’t.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

And that has never helped any other QB.  Regardless, never been done means never been done.  

Beg to differ.  Brees threw for 5,000 yards in five seperate seasons.  All before the NFL went to 17 games in 2021.  
 

And point taken about “never being done” …for Chicago.  It is a record to be noted considering it’s for one of the founding teams of the NFL.  

[BearFan PHX]

Bears have always been a "Winter Team". A history of great running backs and defenses. It makes sense. At one point someone (was it Muhsin Muhammad?) said "Chicago is the place where receivers go to die" and barring a couple exceptions, like the Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffries era, it's been mostly true. That's on WRs and QBs alike.

So now we finally have a modern coach, who understands the pass game, thankfully combined with that throw back hard ass leader of men we've always needed, but been McCaskey-afraid of for so many years.

As a result we're aiming at 50 points a game territory here, like the Lions are/were, and at the same time the passing records here really are low hanging fruit - having been that winter team for so long.

The combination of those two things tells me that in short time Caleb will break all the records; 4,000 proper, and 4250 (17 game adjusted) both as well as a whole mess of other team bests pretty quickly.

If the progress Caleb has shown continues, he's gonna be an elite franchise QB by the middle of next year.

Does anyone here have a nephew who can play on the D line?