Bearstalk

So I have always liked QBR as a way to represent QB production over other methods. I just didn't know that it had such a strong correlation to wins. Looking over the first 3 weeks of the season, a team has at least an 80% chance of victory when their QBR is in the top 10. On the flip side, a team has over a 70% chance at a loss if they are in the bottom 10. The outliers are usually super close games. Purdy had the #6 QBR and lost 27-24 this week. In Week 2, Hurts had the #3 QBR and lost 22-21, Burrow lost 26-25, and Jones lost 21-18. 3 losses by 5 pts. In Week 1, Richardson had the #1 QBR and lost 29-27, and Murray had the #4 QBR and lost 34-28. On the low end…

I have not been the biggest fan, mainly due to his lack of range, but his kicks tonight with the wind and the onside kick were amazing. This was arguably the best game of his career.

So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges. Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year…

Best on Offense: Lewis, Wright, and Johnson (Wright seems a little high, Johnson was the best player for sure) Best on Defense: Billings, Jackson, and Pickens (I don't buy the Jackson part, he got burned on a TD and looked like he was just running around in the secondary). Worst on Offense: Tonyan, Patrick, Claypool, Whitehair, and Davis (bad for Poles, 4 acquisitions underperforming) Worst on Defense: Green, Jones, and Edwards (that seems about right, Jones was terrible, they need to put Pickens or Dexter in there) So 7 of Poles free agent acquisitions in the last 2 years were in the bottom 8 in Week 1. Not good.

,When I say core,I don't mean blue chip,I m talking about people they figure to be here for at least 3 years or are under contract. What they see as roster value. Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent Swift, Johnson Moore, Odunze, Zaccheaus Kmet and Smythe Jones, Kiran A,, Wright, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Murray, Stromberg, Jordon McFadden Byard, Brisker, Hicks, Owens, Travis Moore Gordon, JJ , Stevenson, Smith, Blackwell , Edwards, Edmunds, Sewell, Ogbongbemiga, Swayze Bozeman Booker, Sweat, Odeyingbo, Billings, Cris Williams, Johnathan Ford, Jarrett, Dexter, Pickens , Daniel Hardy Once we have the draft this will chang…

https://www.matchquarters.com/p/matchquarters-db-101-technique-analysis

I’m sure the Packers can make up for it with their first round pick this year. https://www.windycitygridiron.com/chicago-bears-analysis/111019/the-chicago-bears-had-the-best-2025-rookie-class-while-the-packers-had-the-worst

Bears sign Amen Ogbongbemiga!

https://www.facebook.com/share/6ibyxh8gaUUQuJYr/?mibextid=xfxF2i

Due to Maye making the Super Bowl and Allen and others out due to injury, somehow the alternate selection passed up guys like Trevor Lawrence for Shedeur Sanders. Just when you think the award could not get any more ridiculous, they set a new low. At this point, it should not be used as any type of honor.

I don’t how the specifics would work, but given the disparity in contracts, maybe the Bears should call Buffalo and talk to them about a DJ Moore for Keon Coleman trade. That would get DJ’s primary money off the Bears, remove an issue (for those who believe it to be), and do the same for the Bills. I could see how both sides may view this as win-win. Thoughts on this?

Sounded like he had an offer from Bears and Pats - ended up choosing to reunite with Vrabel. Wish him the best. Was hoping we'd keep him. Fact we were still talking to him tells me we may still add a vet safety yet. I still think a 1yr deal with Brisker could make some sense. Maybe give him some upside with incentives and allow him to hit the market again next year.

Bears sign Braxton to a 1 year deal.

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/bears-hire-kerry-joseph-as-their-quarterbacks-coach

I know I am concerned about the Bears offense, but league-wide, offensive numbers are down across the board. Check out some of these stats thru 2 weeks: 300-yard Passing Games thru 2 weeks: 2024: 5 2023: 13 2022: 13 2021: 21 2020: 16 2019: 20 2018: 19 2017: 13 2016: 20 Red zone passing TDs thru 2 weeks: 2024: 40 2023: 67 2022: 74 2021: 71 2020: 79 2019: 56 2018: 69 2017: 57 2016: 64 So as bad as Williams has been numbers-wise, they look a lot better considering what the rest of the league is doing too.

"Isn't this what we need for this 2025 NFL draft?" Poles was quoted as saying tonight before drafting a Tight End and then a Wide Receiver. oh that's right, it's 2026 and we did this last year. it's de' ja' vu all over again. why not keep drafting the same positions over and over and over and over for the rest of our lives? 1. poles gives a contract to a center who wants to retire (and he talks him out of it?) and 'surprise' he retires after ONE season. then drafts a center, that was a third round projected pick, in the 2nd round. all this after trading our f'king 5th round pick to the Pat's for this wonderful center a month ago. if this is even close to being sane, pleas…

He was run game coordinator under Carrol in Seattle, and worked with Waldron there. The staff is filling out really nicely! And unlike the first wave of hires, these people all had a specific connection to Waldron, so the chemistry is known already. Hopefully Morton has the juice to make Waldron run the ball more than he did previously. If Waldron can adapt, and there's no reason to doubt that, and get a fully dimensional and modern offense in Chicago, then we will be on our way up the ladder, with a whole Waldron tree waiting in the wings ready to move up if Waldron is hired away as a HC, or if he is promoted to our HC some time. That is one developing insuranc…

There are two guys that stand out for me when you consider their draft status and or contract vs performance this year. So far on offense, that is Monangai who has 731 Rush Yards, only 97 fewer rushing yards than Jeanty, but with 69 fewer carries. He also has 140 receiving yards on 14 receptions. With 871 Yards from Scrimmage, he only needs 129 total yards to hit 1K with 2 games left. For a 7th Rounder, that is some crazy production. The Bears are 7-1 when Mongagai gets at least 12 touches, and 4-3 when he doesn't. Feed him! On defense, it is Nahshon Wright. 5 INTs and 2 FF, 1 TD, and 11 PD. The Bears are 6-1 when he forces a turnover, and the only loss was the…

Here are the worst records against the top half of the league. It makes sense that most of the bottom feeders are on the list, but I was surprised to see DEN on there. They are 8-0 against bad teams and 0-5 vs good teams. If they make the playoffs, they are the first team eliminated (AFC side). ATL would be the same for the NFC. There is only one team on this list with a losing record AND a positive points differential, the Chicago Bears. You cannot make up how bad this team has been under Flus. JAX 0-8 CIN 0-7 CHI 0-6 MIA 0-5 DEN 0-5 (8-5) NE 0-5 NO 0-4 CAR 0-4 LVR 1-7 NYJ 1-7 SF 1-6 NYG 1-5 ATL 1-5 (6-6) Besides one-score game lo…