BearFan PHX

good stuff, thanks for this.

Yeah, I dont think it's illegal to announce intention to sign, and talk about it openly - it IS the tampering period, after all. But if a better offer comes in on Tuesday, the player is free to change their mind until it's actually signed, and that cant happen until Wednesday. I think it will be a pretty chaotic but transparent process. And if we do come to an agreement in principle with someone, I wouldn't be surprised if we heard about it. Think of it from an agent's point of view. They know they have the deal, and they themselves can trust themselves not to change their mind, so why not get the press coverage for your client? I dont think agents do too well shaking hands on deals and then going back on them, a few of those, and word gets around, and youre done, no one trusts you. So yeah, transparent-ish. I cant wait to see who our new OL and Defensive front are. It's weird to have a hollowed out roster with so much cap money and draft capital just waiting for the start of the race.

Amen! +1

Yes!!! this is the Fields-plays-well-this-season outcome, and it's not a fantasy, it could easily become reality. Also, I read somewhere (cant remember where, maybe it was on this board!) that we might trade #9 to Washington for #16 and Daron Payne. If that happens, Ryan Poles is GM of the decade. For those who said you should never try to lose games, hopefully now we can see the incredible value that ending up #1 instead of #4 or #5 brought. Poles is playing this for long term benefit too. Sustainable. Not a word we've come to associate with the Bears ever, and now, we are here. Awesome.

Seriously Barney from the Simpsons seems more trustworthy.

He had 1,100+ yards receiving for three years and then almost 900 this past year - with crap QBs throwing to him the whole time. And he still compares favorably with Diggs? Awesome. And you're right, someone is gonna be open. Give Fields a pocket, and this is gonna be a tough team to defend. Plus you need to spy Fields. Yikes. I'm starting to salivate thinking about the coming players on OL and defense. Lets Go!

it all depends on the way the Bears have players rated. After Will Anderson is gone, and depending on how people see Carter and whether he is there, the question is do you see a discernable gap between the next couple defenders and the ones just after that. If you have someone marked blue and they are there, you take them, but i think there is a lot of comparable talent there, and another move down just adds more good players. Its a guess until i see how the board falls. I will say that wouldnt hate Jalen Carter at 9 either.

and he lights a fire under Claypools butt. This is one of those moves that acts as a multiplier through the whole WR room. Now we need an OL and we have almost nothing on the defensive front 7. This is gonna be a fun offseason.

you have to value the future pick as 32 picks x the number of years youre waiting lower than it would be this year tho. 1000 traded for: 387 R1 P9 86 R2 P61 149 2024 R1 pick 29 2025 R2 pick ____ 651 Meaning DJ Moore was worth 350 points (R1 P11) So Basically, DJ Moore = high/mid first round pick. Which I think is right. It's what you would have had to trade for him. Plus we got the future picks we needed. But DJ Moore isnt an add in, he's a main part of the haul here. He's the second 2023 first round pick in this trade. You could imagine it as we traded R1 P1 for: R1 P9 R1 P11 (DJ Moore) R2 P61 2024 R1 Pick 2025 R2 Pick So is DJ Moore worth R1 P11? That's the question. I say yes.

by the numbers and the Hall trade chart, the value we paid for DJ Moore in this trade was equal to a second round pick this year, and moving down from first round to second round in the extra 2025 pick. That's a steal. Suddenly Mooney and Claypool look much better too because you cant double team everyone. This gives Fields the weapons to show what he can do, and we got a likely top 10 first rounder next year to combine with our pick to take Field's replacement or add two firsts to the team around him. This was a great move for sustainability. In the past, we've seen the Bears try to load up for a run with a window that's already closing. Now with young core players like Fields, and three excellent receiver all 25 or 24 years old you've got the beginnings of a sustainable, long term offense. Truly building a team. We might use the pick at #9, but once you get out of the blue area, unless someone specific drops, don't be surprised to see the Bears trade down again. We can use all the 2nd round picks we can get. This is very exciting for the next ten years of Bears football. Good job Poles. Now you just have to pick the players to draft and pay in Free Agency.

yes this would be a good and fair deal coming from the 2nd pick! From 1 overall it's actually lacking as crazy as that sounds for so much.

he sure would, but if Justin doesnt have time to throw it wont matter. We HAVE to fix the OL and the defense has nothing on the DL right now.

lol yeah, and thats before i looked at the chart and realized I was short 162 points and re-edited my reply! Shoot even higher!

Ok I just looked at the modern trade value chart (linked below), and it says that compensation to go all the way to 9 is short by the value of another early 2nd rounder. They'd have to include a player. Out first overall pick is worth between 1,000 points and 1,200 points (when there is a top QB available, a 20% premium applies). but let's call it 1,000 points 387 R1 P9 153 R2 P39 86 R3 P61 149 2024 1st round pick (draft position (9) lower value by one round = R2 P41) 65 2025 1st round pick (draft position (9) lower value by two rounds = R3 P73) ______ 838 points, which is shy by 162 points. R2 P37 = 162 points so they either have to throw in a 2024 2nd and something, or a player to make that work. #1 is worth a LOT, and 9 is only worth 39% of the value of 1 and all this if you DONT add in the 20% QB premium! https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill

agree!

Amen. Talent is great, but hustle is a big deal too - witness the Norhtwestern Men's Basketball defense this year. It aint talent.

for sure. but Monty's role on this team isnt a homerun hitter. Hes a great pass blocker, blitz protection guy, he has great vision, hes a north south runner, hes tough and finishes runs turning 3 yard gains into 6 yard gains, and he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. i think thats what they need him for - moving the chains, picking up blitzes, pounding the ball over the goalline, and catching wheel routes and screens.

we will know for sure after next year with an improved line and WRs who know the playbook better. if Justin doesnt ball out, then we will have two number ones next year to package to take a top QB next year, and there are some good ones. Better yet if Fields does ball out, then we sign him long term and use those picks for Marvin Harrison Jr

^5

nah its all good I respect you, and the point youre making! But i think Justin will be much improved next year.

totally. if Justin wins like he has, then he is a loser, but the real question is how will he play next year? As far as whats already happened of course you are 100% correct.

lol no one going to stfu, cuz thats the whole point of this board - sports talk! But I think the question is QBR or fantasy points from each QB, not just record, which relies on defense too?

That'd certainly be a tough, blue collar identity.

I think Mauch's strength is his... strength LOL he's a total mauler, but not a technical pass protector. I do see him as more of a RT or a guard. I think he's a beast tho, not sure i ever thought that about Jones. But if you're talking strictly LT, I think i agree that Jones > Mauch. But i think in the running game especially, Mauch is much better than Jones. But that's great - room for both then.

Ok so we will compare Justin and Lamar's stats for 2023 and 2024 and see where this bold prediction lands! I will say this - every year Im on the record with some prediction I am sure of that turns out not to happen LOL and the same is true of anyone who sticks their necks out and actually makes predictions! So kudos to you for being bold, even though I think you're wrong! I will say what you're right about tho - so far Fields is a losing QB. If we knew he and the team wouldnt grow, then it'd be easy to say you're 100% right. This has been the truth so far. But we all saw him running for his life because the OL couldnt protect him, and the WRs were rarely open. Fields didnt throw a lot of INTs, so maybe if he had looked more "confident" and gotten the ball out earlier, he'd have been throwing to WRs who didnt get separation, and some % of those throws would have been picks. But the name of the gmae here is to predict the future, and I dont think many people expect Fields to be the same QB he was in 2022 in 2023. That's the question here. I think you're wrong, but of course until it happens, no one can really know. Fair? Oh, and even though we all agree there werent enough of them, here are a bunch of examples of Fields being a great passer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTHoUrjAUrs