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Week 18 Official Game Thread CHI @ GB, SUN 1/7, 3:25PM, CBS, CHI +3, 44.5 O/U


adam
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This is it. The Bears are eliminated, but this game would put an exclamation point on the season. The Packers make the playoffs with a win, and miss the playoffs with a loss. So they have a ton of motivation to win this one.

 

GB has the 13th Offense for yards, Bears now 15th.

For Defense, Bears are 12th, GB is 21st. 

The Bears are the 2nd best rushing offense and best rushing defense per game. The Bears are #1 in INT (22), Packers are 30th (7). 

So the Bears have the edge overall.

The Packers have the better passing game and screen game with Jones, but that's about it on offense. The Bears have the better rushing attack. Kmet's health is going to be key. If Kmet is healthy and plays, I think the Bears can eek out a close win 21-20. If Kmet does not play or is limited, I think the Packers win 24-17.

A win and it's almost a guarantee that Flus, Getsy, and Fields would be back. A loss, and I would say all of those would be up in the air.

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Looking at recent games, GB just crushed MIN, but MIN was starting Jaren Hall, their leading rusher was Ty Chandler, and Johnny Mundt was their starting TE. Last week, they needed a last second FG to beat CAR, and they lost to TB and NYG in the two games before that. So 2-2 in the last month.

Compare that to the Bears, who are 3-1 in their last 4, who crushed ATL by 20, beat ARZ by double digits, the same ARZ team that beat PHI this week, then lost the collapse game to CLE and Joe Flacco by 3, and then they beat DET by 15 before that. 

So if feels like the Bears should have the edge in this game as long as they are healthy. 

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10 minutes ago, adam said:

Looking at recent games, GB just crushed MIN, but MIN was starting Jaren Hall, their leading rusher was Ty Chandler, and Johnny Mundt was their starting TE. Last week, they needed a last second FG to beat CAR, and they lost to TB and NYG in the two games before that. So 2-2 in the last month.

Compare that to the Bears, who are 3-1 in their last 4, who crushed ATL by 20, beat ARZ by double digits, the same ARZ team that beat PHI this week, then lost the collapse game to CLE and Joe Flacco by 3, and then they beat DET by 15 before that. 

So if feels like the Bears should have the edge in this game as long as they are healthy. 

It's been mostly bypassed in media but Atlanta came into this past game with a top 10 defense of their own.  I'm sure you can put some context into that given their division but they weren't bad by any means.  I'd like to get Mooney back because as bad as he's been, he's still better than either Jones or Taylor.  Aside from DJ Moore, watching our WRs last week was painful.  In Week 1 Fields was horrible bypassing numerous open WRs.   If they think the same QB is coming to town and they can get away with the same scheme then they won't get so lucky.   

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This is an opportunity for a statement game. We have a chance to eliminate the Packers from the playoffs like the Lions did last year.  We have nothing to play for except for pride, and ending the season on a high and demonstrate consistent improvement.  We haven't beaten the Packers since 2018.  The Bears are definitely trending upwards.  Fields played his best game as a Bear vs the Falcons.  Here is a chance for him to prove that it wasn't a fluke, that his upward progress since coming back from injury isn't a fluke.  And he can do it vs the Packers who have had our number for far too long.    The Bears season has been a lot like my work fantasy league.  I started out 0-6 but ended the season 7-2 and just missing the playoffs.  If the Bears (and my Fantasy team) had performed the first part of the season like they did the last part of the year we'd be in the playoffs, and one could argue we could make some noise in the playoffs. 

As far as this games impact on Fields, Flus, Getsy, et all?  I don't feel like this game in a vacuum should determine coaches and players fates.  It can help their cases, but win or lose it's how this game goes.  This isn't the same Bears that embarrassed themselves on opening day. And this is their chance to prove that, and go into the offseason with their heads held high.  I feel like we have a good chance of doing just that.  Packers can be scored on and we've seen our offense and play calling (particularly in recent weeks) improve, and our D had really stepped it up.  

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Game Time temperature 31-33F on Sunday, context matters. Just on averages, Fields should outgain Love and have similar TDs, while Love will have 10-20 more passing yards while Fields has 30-40 more rushing yards. 

Jordan Love (21-40F)
3 games, 101.8 QB Rating, 69.3%, 769 yds (256/g), 6.7 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 13 rushing yds (4/g), 0 TD
260 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0.3 INT/g

Justin Fields (21-40F)
2 games, 93.8 QB Rating, 60.0%, 491 yds (246/g), 7.6 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 103 rushing yds (52/g), 2 TD
298 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0 INT/g

Expect a lot of dink and dunk from Love.

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1 hour ago, adam said:

Game Time temperature 31-33F on Sunday, context matters. Just on averages, Fields should outgain Love and have similar TDs, while Love will have 10-20 more passing yards while Fields has 30-40 more rushing yards. 

Jordan Love (21-40F)
3 games, 101.8 QB Rating, 69.3%, 769 yds (256/g), 6.7 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 13 rushing yds (4/g), 0 TD
260 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0.3 INT/g

Justin Fields (21-40F)
2 games, 93.8 QB Rating, 60.0%, 491 yds (246/g), 7.6 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 103 rushing yds (52/g), 2 TD
298 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0 INT/g

Expect a lot of dink and dunk from Love.

That's how you attack the Bears on paper, quick throws underneath, there will only be a few passes down field. If they stop tyhe run and get a lead that will force Love into some TOs. They also know Patrick is a weakness so they will try to  explote that. We need a lot of rollouts and RPOs. 

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The Pass Defenses GB and Love have faced since their bye:

Post Bye
CAR 3rd 
TB 32nd
NYG 20th

KC 2nd 
DET 26th
LAC 30th
PIT 22nd
LAR 24th

MIN 18thx2
DEN 23rd

GB has not faced a defense like the Bears who are #1 against the run AND have the most INT in the league. 

If the Bears can shutdown the screen game with Jones, I think they will win handily. This game fits right into the Bears strengths (Bears #2 rush attack against GB's #28 Run Defense). The Bears should be able to control the clock. As long as they can limit turnover, I think the Bears win by 10.

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I see Mooney is out.  Probably the last we’ll see of him as a Bear(?).  And noticed Kmet was practicing “Full” at the end of the week.  Also of note, Johnson probably out due to not practicing most on the week.  Will see Stevenson and Smith more which doesn’t concern me as much as if used to.  
 

 

IMG_6381.jpeg

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58 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I see Mooney is out.  Probably the last we’ll see of him as a Bear(?).  And noticed Kmet was practicing “Full” at the end of the week.  Also of note, Johnson probably out due to not practicing most on the week.  Will see Stevenson and Smith more which doesn’t concern me as much as if used to.  
 

 

IMG_6381.jpeg

Jaylon said he was going to play so I expect him out there.  

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Looks like Patrick is on IR, and Kramer is coming up.

Id sure like to get a look at him. Wish we saw him weeks ago, but I dunno what the coaches are seeing in practice.

Hopefully it's not something that messes up our last chance to evaluate Fields - that would be awful.

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6 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

This is homies chance to keep his job. Be the qb people remembered that finally beat Green Bay or go in the offseason with the ax of the number one pick

 Best Green Bay and even phx will chant your name forever

lol he did finally make some in rhythm throws from the pocket last week. First time Ive seen that outside of the scripted plays. His drops were more urgent too, so thats good to see.

I watched JT OSullivans tape and he made some good points about bad footwork.

Fields is such a mystery. Two years from now he could be terrible and not starting anywhere, or burning up the league, and it's really hard to see which since they are both so possible. But hell yeah, if the light comes on for Fields and he adds all that superhero stuff to a potent in rhythm passing attack Im totally buying his jersey :)

Ive never disliked Fields the person. He seems really nice, hard worker - you want to root for him. but damn he makes it hard to love him sometimes LOL

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I'm down in Cabo San Lucas and went to eat , the Bears- Packers game in on TV losing 24-6 and thinking I got my days mixed up. I was freaking out their losing and realized it was replay of game 1. I still drank a tequila but felt better it wasn't game 17.

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6 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Seems to me Feeney should get the shot.  🤷🏻‍♂️

me too - and either hes GOOD in which case our coaches have been making a big mistake keeping him from starting, or they know from practice that hes not as good.

Ive been wanting to see him for weeks, because we need to know what we have there going into offseason. But maybe he is a weak link.

He does have the awesome mullet and stache. thats gotta count for something!

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1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

He does have the awesome mullet and stache. thats gotta count for something!

And hes a “local” product (Orland Park).  Been a fan of the Bears since he was a kid.  Couldn’t find the pic but there was one of him on the social media network wearing a Bears jersey as a kid (think Urlacher?) and I saw a story where his grandma would play the “Super Bowl Shuffle” for him on VHS whenever he’d visit her . 

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2 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And hes a “local” product (Orland Park).  Been a fan of the Bears since he was a kid.  Couldn’t find the pic but there was one of him on the social media network wearing a Bears jersey as a kid (think Urlacher?) and I saw a story where his grandma would play the “Super Bowl Shuffle” for him on VHS whenever he’d visit her . 

classic grabowski

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Added this on another thread but it appears AJ Dillon will be out and as a result Aaron Jones and recently re-acquired Emmanuel Lewis will be carrying the running game for GB.   Lewis just recently returned from IR and Jones has only had two 100 yard games this season (those being in the last two weeks). 
 

 

IMG_6387.jpeg

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1 minute ago, adam said:

The Packers are 4-1 when they rush for more than 125 yards, and they have done that the last two weeks with Aaron Jones who has been over 120 both games. 

As Doug Buffone once put it ( run the ball and stop the run). That applies to today's game plus TOs, are the keys to winning. Is it 16 interceptions in the last 6 games for us?

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If we can dial up pressure on LOVE, he will make desperation throws that our DBs will LOVE.

He does it all the time, and has gotten away with it time and time again. Today he will pay!

Good Lord, I hope didn't just jinx us. 

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