THE CHICAGO BEARS HAVE THE #1 PICK

[Lucky Luciano]

On 1/16/2023 at 9:29 AM, AZ54 said:

if we’re going to get someone with one year left on their rookie contract I’m thinking I’d prefer Jonathan Taylor.  He had a couple ankle injuries this year and it appears he might need surgery. I’m purely guessing but that might be the procedure Harry had at the beginning of the season.   A backfield of Taylor, Herbert, and then just keep Darrynton Evans and Ebner.    
 

Montgomery walks and we have more FA budget.  Of course Taylor would need a new deal in 2024 but right now his valuation at OTC is around $8 mil.  Maybe that’s a bit low but would you rather have Monty at $7 mil per year or Taylor at $10mil?   Or neither and just keep drafting RBs.  

i just don't see why we would throw any draft picks above the 6th round or pick up another highly paid FA in running backs unless monty wants the moon.

the guy can block

he can catch

he can move the pile

he knows the system

is in his prime

relatively a healthy player with a great work ethic

appears to be a locker room asset and doesn't throw anyone under the bus. not a prima donna.

with a good offensive line in front of him his yds per carry can only increase. add to that when we don't have 8 in the box because our OL can actually pass block it should increase also. he was part of one of the most productive running attacks in recent bear history.

i've said this before... he is a similar RB as walter payton was. not flashy but tough as nails and gets the job done on a team that defenses EXPECT the run.

what more do we want from a RB?

we have the change of pace quick RB already on the roster to compliment him. we have the cap to pay him so why look for greener grass when we are standing in the meadow?

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

i just don't see why we would throw any draft picks above the 6th round or pick up another highly paid FA in running backs unless monty wants the moon.

the guy can block

he can catch

he can move the pile

he knows the system

is in his prime

relatively a healthy player with a great work ethic

appears to be a locker room asset and doesn't throw anyone under the bus. not a prima donna.

with a good offensive line in front of him his yds per carry can only increase. add to that when we don't have 8 in the box because our OL can actually pass block it should increase also. he was part of one of the most productive running attacks in recent bear history.

i've said this before... he is a similar RB as walter payton was. not flashy but tough as nails and gets the job done on a team that defenses EXPECT the run.

what more do we want from a RB?

we have the change of pace quick RB already on the roster to compliment him. we have the cap to pay him so why look for greener grass when we are standing in the meadow?

More importantly I think Flus and Poles likes him. With lots of choices in free agency, it will drive Montys price down. He a team leader, hard worker, and brings physically to the offense.

I think we led the league in rushing, not sure we need to change anything. Yes a Pollard or Barkley would bring more to the table but I think he invests cap money in both the O and D lines not in the RB position. Bring a late round pick to compete with Ebner. Plus I suspect the development of Velus will add to the running game also. 

If Monty leaves its because someone offers him more money that Poles. I suspect it will be the 6-7 range per year.

[AZ54]

On 1/9/2023 at 11:44 PM, AZ54 said:

7 teams vying for 3 prospects still works for us, and all being in top 10.  Actually it's even better as it increases the likelihood of DBDB's proposed double trade down. 

However, I think AZ is going to take a QB.  They are not enamored with Murray's work ethic.  There is a reason his new contract has stipulations about how many hours he has to be engaged on his "iPad" reviewing plays/game plans.  I doubt they'd trade him this year unless the new guy wins the job outright, but more likely wait a year and then see who wins the job in year 2.   Unless their new staff falls in love with one, with 3 good prospects they'll get one by staying put.  Having this high of a pick and good QB prospects on the board, it would be foolish for their new GM not to take advantage of the opportunity and hedge his bet at QB.  However, as the Bears have proven too often, there is always at least one fool in every draft.  

I believe Indy is our most likely trading partner.  If the Cards select a QB then we have our entire draft board available for us at #4.  

 

I might have to take back my thoughts about Arizona drafting a QB.  I had never looked at the deal they gave Murray and it's insane but leaves them some ways out.  Totally explains why an owner would be pissed off and fired everyone after a 4 win season.  $100mil guaranteed but that is spread out with massive guarantees in different years (22, 24, 25).    They could try to find a trade partner this offseason but his knee injury will complicate that since he won't be ready to play until after the start of the season.  

Cut him pre Jun 1st = $96mil dead money, -$80mil cap space. (won't happen)

Cut post Jun 1st = $50mil dead money, -$34mil cap space. (could happen)

Of course they would try to get some value in return. 

Trade pre Jun 1st = $59mil dead money, -$43mil cap space.  This seems bad but for a team entering a complete rebuild they could easily follow the Poles' plan.   

Trade post Jun 1st:  Dead cap = $13mil, cap savings = $3mil.   

Trades are very doable but the new team would have to be willing to pay Murray $35mil guaranteed in 2024.  Trades in 2024 are even better.  The money is not a big deal once spread out across the next few seasons but he'd still be close to a $40mil/yr QB.      

Would a team like Baltimore who has to re-enter negotiations with Lamar Jackson view Murray as a lower cost option if negotiations get too high?   There's a drop off in talent.  How about Tennessee with their run-first focus?  In that situation I think Murray would be a big upgrade to their passing game.  

We have the cluster of desperate teams on the outside looking in at 7/8/9 in the draft:  Raiders (he won't fit there), Falcons (Pace rehab special if his trade up offer fails), and Panthers.  Further down the board we have the Jets, Wash, and Tampa (likely) who will look at QB options.   

It isn't as likely as I originally though but I still think there is a reasonable chance they draft a QB at #3 and let him compete with Murray for a year.  If Murray lights it up in 2023 they could always keep him and trade the new QB.   A bird in the hand...

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Good chance Indy is our trade down partner.  This mock I land Quentin Nelson G, 1-4, 2-35, 3-79 and 2024 1st. 

Then at 4,  trade down with Vegas for Devontae Adam's, 1-7, 3-30, 2024 3rd rd. 

Oline gets revamped, WR a strength, nee blood on Dline especially if they add a high FA like Payne.

[BearFan PHX]

I think an extra 2024 first rounder is critical, because it gives us a shot at a high pick QB in 2024 if we need one, and it gives us leverage for Marvin Harrison Jr, if Fields plays well in 2023.

[AZ54]

After watching this I have lot more to consider with Jalen Carter.  I watched both of these games live and couldn't remember him making many plays but after watching the film it is clear he impacted many plays in both games.  In fact, on most of these plays he was the only Georgia Dline getting around his blocker.  With little support it was often easy for QBs to move away from him.   

I realize these are also highlights but we need to consider that he played in these bowl games despite being a top draft pick and that shows he has a competitive spirit.   He also had a tough knee injury early on and still worked his way back onto the field this season.  He wasn't 100% and with the draft around the corner he could have played it safe and didn't.  

You'll see him tossing aside a 350lb OT, or bull rushing OGs 5 yards deep into the pocket to pressure the QB.  That's impressive even if he didn't get on the stat sheet.  There are multiple plays where his punch was almost lifted the OG off the ground and getting them back on their heels.  This was against guys who will play in the NFL next year.  

On other plays it was just shear quickness to get around his blocker.  Even when sandwiched between a double team he still has the power to break through (and on the triple team).   His physical traits are rare and he is just 21 years old.   

 

[BearFan PHX]

I think we will be going after Daron Payne in Free Agency at DT, so I hope we take Will Anderson if we have the choice between the two with our first round pick.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Good chance Indy is our trade down partner.  This mock I land Quentin Nelson G, 1-4, 2-35, 3-79 and 2024 1st. 

Then at 4,  trade down with Vegas for Devontae Adam's, 1-7, 3-30, 2024 3rd rd. 

Oline gets revamped, WR a strength, nee blood on Dline especially if they add a high FA like Payne.

I like all  the names  Wright will be a day one starter. Don't see Poles trading for Adams, older player with big contract. If we get a player back, try Waller or Crosby. At least there younger.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

After watching this I have lot more to consider with Jalen Carter.  I watched both of these games live and couldn't remember him making many plays but after watching the film it is clear he impacted many plays in both games.  In fact, on most of these plays he was the only Georgia Dline getting around his blocker.  With little support it was often easy for QBs to move away from him.   

I realize these are also highlights but we need to consider that he played in these bowl games despite being a top draft pick and that shows he has a competitive spirit.   He also had a tough knee injury early on and still worked his way back onto the field this season.  He wasn't 100% and with the draft around the corner he could have played it safe and didn't.  

You'll see him tossing aside a 350lb OT, or bull rushing OGs 5 yards deep into the pocket to pressure the QB.  That's impressive even if he didn't get on the stat sheet.  There are multiple plays where his punch was almost lifted the OG off the ground and getting them back on their heels.  This was against guys who will play in the NFL next year.  

On other plays it was just shear quickness to get around his blocker.  Even when sandwiched between a double team he still has the power to break through (and on the triple team).   His physical traits are rare and he is just 21 years old.   

 

There are a lot of smart people that thinks he's the bomb. Not a lot of DLs but lots of edge players in this draft. If we get Payne definitely have to get Anderson.

[Mongo3451]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

After watching this I have lot more to consider with Jalen Carter.  I watched both of these games live and couldn't remember him making many plays but after watching the film it is clear he impacted many plays in both games.

I'm out on Carter being a top 10 pick.  His greatest trait is that he has tremendously strong legs.  Problem is, he's not super twitchy.  Pro OL can handle that.

[AZ54]

 

[adam]

21 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

 

We really need a late round first or early 2nd, and we should be able to grab a top 5 WR before pick 40.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, adam said:

We really need a late round first or early 2nd, and we should be able to grab a top 5 WR before pick 40.

This group of WRs doesn't seem to be as strong as the last couple of years. Not sure any are a true# 1. Having said that I like JS-N and think he may be the best of the group. Only way we get him is in a trade back extra pick in top 40. 

[adam]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

This group of WRs doesn't seem to be as strong as the last couple of years. Not sure any are a true# 1. Having said that I like JS-N and think he may be the best of the group. Only way we get him is in a trade back extra pick in top 40. 

His speed is somewhat concerning or lack thereof.  He is very similar to N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Benjamin, and Laquon Treadwell in terms of size and speed.  That is not a spectacular group. 

[adam]

Unless something crazy happens, I think Anderson is going to be the Bears pick, especially if they pick in the top 3. After that, it will be a crapshoot. 

Big boards are already shifting and Paris Johnson is now ahead of Skoronski for OL on some of them.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Unless something crazy happens, I think Anderson is going to be the Bears pick, especially if they pick in the top 3. After that, it will be a crapshoot. 

Big boards are already shifting and Paris Johnson is now ahead of Skoronski for OL on some of them.

I've watched Wright from Tennessee play several times and would be a perfect RT. I think he would start day one. May be able to get him in the second round.,

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, adam said:

 

Big boards are already shifting and Paris Johnson is now ahead of Skoronski for OL on some of them.

I like Paris Johnson.  He thrived at the LT role last season.  My question would be whether he's willing to play RT or is Braxton Jones willing to move.  I wouldn't have had that question 30 years ago, but today's players have a career plan.

If we could trade back a few times and pick him up around 10, I would do backflips.  That would mean we have picked up at least 3 more second rounders, a couple thirds and a first rounder in 24.  We have got to establish this OL before all else for two main reasons. 1) We have to protect Fields to see if he can throw into tight spots and consistently get the ball out on time.  Right now, he can't do it because there is too much traffic on his face and footsteps everywhere elseelse.  2)  if Fields is not the guy, the OL gives the next man up an incrementally better chance to succeed.

"It all starts up front"

 

[AZ54]

14 hours ago, adam said:

Unless something crazy happens, I think Anderson is going to be the Bears pick, especially if they pick in the top 3. After that, it will be a crapshoot. 

Big boards are already shifting and Paris Johnson is now ahead of Skoronski for OL on some of them.

That makes sense just based on position value.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

54 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

That makes sense just based on position value.  

Anderson round 1, Kancey DT round 2. If this can happen while moving down and gaining picks the better. 

[BearFan PHX]

Also keep in mind we are almost certain to sign at least one big free agent on the DL, and that might affect what we do in the draft too. For example, I don't see us signing (or trading for) a big name DT and then taking Jalen Carter. Frankly, I don't see us taking him anyway. maybe if he falls to like 8 or something, but not in the top 5.

We are so wide open from here it's incredible.

[lemonej]

Will Anderson in the last game I saw him play was holding back IMO.

Jalen Carter in the first playoff game against OSU was ineffective because OSU doubled and triple teamed him most of the game but, in the TCU game he was an inside pressure presence. I'm leary of making negative comments about this prospect because he reminds me of Warren Sapp who had mysterious red flags about his character. The Georgia program has produced some pretty decent football players with character and this kid is back by his teammates.

[Mongo3451]

5 hours ago, lemonej said:

Will Anderson in the last game I saw him play was holding back IMO.

You saw the same thing I saw.  He was playing gap and edge control for much of the game. Then, he causes an INT with an athletic play. 

I don't think we should draft him unless it is after taking back, but I won't be mad if he's taken at one.  He's gonna be a handfull in the NFL.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

You saw the same thing I saw.  He was playing gap and edge control for much of the game. Then, he causes an INT with an athletic play. 

I don't think we should draft him unless it is after taking back, but I won't be mad if he's taken at one.  He's gonna be a handfull in the NFL.

I'm patiently waiting to see his 10yd split when he runs the forty.  Von Miller is my comp just due to similarities in stature.  However I think Anderson is more stout at the point of attack.  In his highlights there are multiple examples of him shedding a block left or right to stop a run.  

For reference Nick Bosa 1.62,  Joey Bosa 1.69.  Von Miller 1.62.    Nick has bulked up since his draft days so he's not there now but the difference between him and his brother on the field is noticeable.  

[Stinger226]

22 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Also keep in mind we are almost certain to sign at least one big free agent on the DL, and that might affect what we do in the draft too. For example, I don't see us signing (or trading for) a big name DT and then taking Jalen Carter. Frankly, I don't see us taking him anyway. maybe if he falls to like 8 or something, but not in the top 5.

We are so wide open from here it's incredible.

I have been thinking Anderson all the way but , I read somewhere that there are only a few blue chip DTs but several edge players. You take Carter and could still get a Tuipukitu or Anudike-Uzormah with the second pick. Someone brought up Taliban Kancey as an option. Highly productive but at 6'and 280 is awful small. Aaron McDonald is very rare.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I have been thinking Anderson all the way but , I read somewhere that there are only a few blue chip DTs but several edge players. You take Carter and could still get a Tuipukitu or Anudike-Uzormah with the second pick. Someone brought up Taliban Kancey as an option. Highly productive but at 6'and 280 is awful small. Aaron McDonald is very rare.

Kancey has been sitting as a high 2nd. From Pit, like Donald, but he is small.

Now I am liking Mazi Smith from Michigan.  He is taller and heavier but as much an athletic freak and might make a better 3T.  My mock tonight brings some size to DE and DT.