THE CHICAGO BEARS HAVE THE #1 PICK

[jason]

6 hours ago, adam said:

That dude has gotten a raw deal ever since the Bears fired him after going 10-6. He has been the scapegoat every time. 

The Bears need to bring him on as an Associate Head Coach or something like that.

He wasn't the scapegoat. He was the source of most problems. He was horrible at game management, horrible at clock management, ignored offense, ignored offensive line even more, subpar at drafting (we all know he was involved), thought he was smarter defensively compared to his DC, made nearly no game time adjustments, and only succeeded because he walked into a defensive roster that had a perfect-fit-once-a-generation-talent HOF'er (Urlacher) playing alongside another defensive stud who is a fringe HOF candidates (Briggs) and a uniquely skilled DB (Tillman) perfectly suited for the bend-don't-break-emphasize-turnover philosophy.

And if it weren't for the fluky 2006 season (Devin Hester selection & 5 return TDs, the "crown their ass"-game, etc.) then Lovie likely would have been fired even earlier. 

[jason]

16 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

LMAO.... I see HC calls GM and tells him to prioritize getting some guys who can pass block.  

Any properly functioning franchise has the GM and HC tied at the hip. They should have very similar philosophical approaches to team building. If a GM provides the picks and the HC chooses to play clock-control-offense, then the HC isn't doing his job.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

For the Claypool trade, here are a few receivers that may be available when the Bears would've picked in the 2nd:

Claypool vs WRs projected between 30-45:

Chase Claypool 66-1037, 13 TD; 6'4", 238
Jalin Hyatt, TEN, 67-1267, 15 TD; 6'0", 185
Kayshon Boutte, LSU, 48-538, 2 TD, 6'0", 205
Rashee Rice, SMU, 96-1355, 10 TD, 6'2", 203

Rice is the closest in height, but no one is close in weight and overall size. For production, Rice and Hyatt were both really productive this year. Hyatt is not much bigger than Mooney. Boutte disappeared in games. The question is Hyatt or Rice worth the #32 pick. If the answer is no, then the trade was actually the right move. If you believe one or both of them are worthy of #32, then it was a bad trade. To me, it is still up in the air as Claypool is a known commodity and none of these rookies are.

It will be defined this year, if Claypool plays well, it's a win. If not a mistake.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, adam said:

That dude has gotten a raw deal ever since the Bears fired him after going 10-6. He has been the scapegoat every time. 

The Bears need to bring him on as an Associate Head Coach or something like that.

Lovie needed to go at the time they let him go. When he got his new contract he wanted control of personal. They brought some players in that Lovie wanted that didn't work out. It was a power struggle, GM usually wins.

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, adam said:

Basic Trade Scenarios with teams most likely in need of a QB. Using the trade value chart, what would the Bears realistically get in a return for the #1 pick:

1. HOU, 1 for 2, 3000 - 2600 = 400 (2nd rounder). Moving up to #1 normally costs a little more than any other move. I could see the Bears getting a 2nd (#33) plus maybe a 3rd or 4th in 2024. 
2. IND, 1 for 4, 3000 - 1800 = 1200 (1st rounder+). Since this would be a jump to #1 and leapfrogging a division opponent, it won't be cheap. I could see Indy giving up #4, #35, and a 2024 1st rounder at a minimum. 
3. DET 1 for 6&18, 3000 - 1600 - 900 = 500 (2nd rounder+). Detroit has two first rounders, so that helps them a lot if they are interested. Trading with a division opponent is rare. It will take at least #6 + #18 + #47 + another 2023 pick + something in 2024. This would be a great package for the Bears, especially if 3 QBs went in the top 5.
4. LVR 1 for 7, 3000 - 1500 = 1500 (multiple 1st rounders). This jump may be out of the Bears range, but it would give them #7, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and another pick in 2023 at least.
5. ATL 1 for 8, 3000 - 1400 = 1600 (multiple 1st rounders+). Just like LVR, this is a huge jump and would cost #8, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and some additional picks (2nd and 3rd rounders)
6. CAR 1 for 9, 3000 - 1350 = 1650 (multiple 1st rounders+). This may be too big of a jump, but if CAR wants their guy, they would have to give up #9, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and some additional picks (2nd and 3rd rounders).

It still feels like HOU or IND will be the best candidates. If HOU is happy with the 2nd QB, they will stay put. After the Rivers, Ryan, Foles fiasco of the last few years, I am sure management in IND is going to want to get their QB, which resets their time. 

If players are involved, IND and LVR have some potential trade candidates, if Poles wants to go that route. Obviously getting Davante from the Raiders would be insane and that trade would still net them multiple 1st's plus Adams. 

 

Don't be surprised if Poles trades down twice. There is such a huge gap between picks that he may want to take a few more swings in the top 50. Either way, it is hard to imagine anyone messing this up, unless he just keeps the pick and drafts a QB.

Where  there could be a problem, it 2 or 3 QBs emerge as good and different teams want different QBs Everyone knows the Bears ain't drafting a QB. So that could screw up the trade scenarios.

[AZ54]

44 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Where  there could be a problem, it 2 or 3 QBs emerge as good and different teams want different QBs Everyone knows the Bears ain't drafting a QB. So that could screw up the trade scenarios.

Don't worry there will be plenty of teams leaking positive vibes or "talking up" Levis and Richardson but their resumes don't come close to the top 2.  

[killakrzydav]

Levis actually is a top five prospect. His arm is likely the best in the draft and reminiscent of Josh Allen. We need to hope Stroud is thought to be a top five talent too

[Mongo3451]

42 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Levis actually is a top five prospect. His arm is likely the best in the draft and reminiscent of Josh Allen. We need to hope Stroud is thought to be a top five talent too

He's number one with Kiper.  Levis has a very live arm with a quick release.  A lot of folks downgrade him because they have a ground and pound offense.  Ain't his fault.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

He's number one with Kiper.  Levis has a very live arm with a quick release.  A lot of folks downgrade him because they have a ground and pound offense.  Ain't his fault.

Levi's has all the tools you want but needs to be refined.   He can elevate himself at senior bowl and combine.

[Stinger226]

Ill stick this here.

https://twitter.com/CHGO_Sports/status/1612575868861272065?s=19

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, jason said:

He was the source of most problems. He was horrible at game management, horrible at clock management, ignored offense, ignored offensive line even more, subpar at drafting

Aha.  We find ourselves once again on polar opposites on how the Lovie tenure went down.  You know he did ‘take your advice’ and draft (or “suggested”as you insinuate) two o-linemen in the first round during his time (Carimi and Williams) but they both flopped.  At any rate, there’s little doubt no other Bears HC has been able to duplicate what Lovie did, so far.   And for what it’s worth Urlacher thought Lovie getting fired was BS and that Phil Emery was “weird”.  

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

34 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Ill stick this here.

 

I like this one from earlier today. 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Okay - so this is my absolute semi plausible dream scenario from a trade perspective:

Bears trade 1 to Texans for #2 and their 2nd rounder this year and next year. 
 

Bears than trade with Colts - moving from 2 to 4 and get Colts 1st round pick, 2nd, and 4th this year plus a 1st and 3rd next year and Buckner.  
 

Cardinals trade down at 3 to somebody looking to get last QB. 
 

Bears draft Anderson at 4. 
 

Note: Total wet dream scenario is the original Texans trade is 1 for 2 and 12. Colts trade still happens as is. 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Levis actually is a top five prospect. His arm is likely the best in the draft and reminiscent of Josh Allen. We need to hope Stroud is thought to be a top five talent too

7 teams vying for 3 prospects still works for us, and all being in top 10.  Actually it's even better as it increases the likelihood of DBDB's proposed double trade down. 

However, I think AZ is going to take a QB.  They are not enamored with Murray's work ethic.  There is a reason his new contract has stipulations about how many hours he has to be engaged on his "iPad" reviewing plays/game plans.  I doubt they'd trade him this year unless the new guy wins the job outright, but more likely wait a year and then see who wins the job in year 2.   Unless their new staff falls in love with one, with 3 good prospects they'll get one by staying put.  Having this high of a pick and good QB prospects on the board, it would be foolish for their new GM not to take advantage of the opportunity and hedge his bet at QB.  However, as the Bears have proven too often, there is always at least one fool in every draft.  

I believe Indy is our most likely trading partner.  If the Cards select a QB then we have our entire draft board available for us at #4.  

 

[Connorbear]

17 hours ago, jason said:

He wasn't the scapegoat. He was the source of most problems. He was horrible at game management, horrible at clock management, ignored offense, ignored offensive line even more, subpar at drafting (we all know he was involved), thought he was smarter defensively compared to his DC, made nearly no game time adjustments, and only succeeded because he walked into a defensive roster that had a perfect-fit-once-a-generation-talent HOF'er (Urlacher) playing alongside another defensive stud who is a fringe HOF candidates (Briggs) and a uniquely skilled DB (Tillman) perfectly suited for the bend-don't-break-emphasize-turnover philosophy.

And if it weren't for the fluky 2006 season (Devin Hester selection & 5 return TDs, the "crown their ass"-game, etc.) then Lovie likely would have been fired even earlier. 

Agreed with most everything you said. I don't want to drag him here, however, I just don't want him back in the organization. 

Peace

[Connorbear]

18 hours ago, jason said:

😄 Likewise. It finally happened. Although, that's only part of my dream:

• Tankathon
• GM trades down and stockpiles picks like the '90s Cowboys
• GM drafts 99% from dominant programs in major conferences (i.e. no Trubisky types)
• GM focuses draft/FA strategy on OL/DL. The cornerstone of the team. It's time to pick/acquire these positions until there are zero holes.
• GM deprioritizes LB & RB in draft. Those dudes can be found later way more often. **Cough** Kwiatkowski **Cough** Sanborn
• GM tells HC to join the 21st Century and prioritize passing & pass blocking. I love watching Fields take off, but I'd rather see him around for 15 years throwing for 4K a year.

Agreed with all of this. 

Peace

[adam]

22 hours ago, jason said:

😄 Likewise. It finally happened. Although, that's only part of my dream:

• Tankathon
• GM trades down and stockpiles picks like the '90s Cowboys
• GM drafts 99% from dominant programs in major conferences (i.e. no Trubisky types)
• GM focuses draft/FA strategy on OL/DL. The cornerstone of the team. It's time to pick/acquire these positions until there are zero holes.
• GM deprioritizes LB & RB in draft. Those dudes can be found later way more often. **Cough** Kwiatkowski **Cough** Sanborn
• GM tells HC to join the 21st Century and prioritize passing & pass blocking. I love watching Fields take off, but I'd rather see him around for 15 years throwing for 4K a year.

So don't pay an off ball LB $20M a year for the next 5 years?

[adam]

I am seeing a lot of chatter about Indy. Some scenarios have Quenton Nelson being offered up as part of the package. 

That would be crazy to end up with Nelson and Anderson/Carter in the same offseason after signing Payne. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Connorbear said:

Agreed with most everything you said. I don't want to drag him here, however, I just don't want him back in the organization. 

Peace

And I should add, as much a supporter of Lovie as I am, I think the game has passed him by.  Sorta like how Fox suddenly appeared to be in over his head.  Lovie might be a good consultant, especially for this version of defense we have now but that’s about it.

Id love more than anything to see Vic Fangio back but he’s more a 3-4 defense than this.  Heard rumors GB maybe looking at him for DC.  

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

I am seeing a lot of chatter about Indy. Some scenarios have Quenton Nelson being offered up as part of the package. 

That would be crazy to end up with Nelson and Anderson/Carter in the same offseason after signing Payne. 

Not sure he trades for any player with that kind of contract that Nelson has. 12, 25,22,24 over the next 4 years. That's LT money for a RG  with Jenkins looming as a the long term starter. Like AZ suggested, ask for Alec Pierce, young and cheap with potential.

I think there is only a few positions he pays big money for, QBs , LT , pass rushers. 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Not sure he trades for any player with that kind of contract that Nelson has. 12, 25,22,24 over the next 4 years. That's LT money for a RG  with Jenkins looming as a the long term starter. Like AZ suggested, ask for Alec Pierce, young and cheap with potential.

I think there is only a few positions he pays big money for, QBs , LT , pass rushers. 

Poles was very clear in today's press conference that he still wants to be conservative with the contracts.  However, I agree with others that he'd pay premium money for a premium player at a premium position.   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

12 hours ago, adam said:

I am seeing a lot of chatter about Indy. Some scenarios have Quenton Nelson being offered up as part of the package. 

That would be crazy to end up with Nelson and Anderson/Carter in the same offseason after signing Payne. 

Nelson is a beast. His contract is massive though. 

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Nelson is a beast. His contract is massive though. 

His production is not commensurate to his contract anymore.  It's said that he is aging early.  If you look at him, the frame is not huge, but the dude is packed in there.

[adam]

Here is an awesome list of the 1st round trades involving QBs since 2002. Crazy that Washington used so much to get RG3 and still drafted Cousins later in the draft.

The #1 pick was involved only once, in the Goff trade.  I assume that is the blueprint for Poles. It was a nice haul (#15, 43, 45, 76, next year 1st round pick, next year 3rd round pick). The 1st rounder was a bigger drop than I would want, but if it netted 2 additional 2nds, an additional 3rd AND a 1st and 3rd in 2024, I would not be too upset.

Using the trade value chart (assuming the following year picks are 16th in the round): 2180 in current year value + 1200 in future year value vs #1 = 3000. So 3380 pts gained for 3000+88/3088 lost. Almost +300 which is the equivalent to a late 2nd rounder in premium. If you also account for the move from 2 to 1, Poles could have gained the equivalent draft capital of approximately 700pts (a late 1st rounder) as long as he can get a similar trade as the Titans did.

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

right, in modern times that first round QB is worth more than the old Jimmy Johnson pick #1 = 3000 points model.

This guy, Rich Hill, attempted to math out the real modern draft chart using information gained in trades. When teams thought a set of picks for another set of picks was a deal they'd both do (and then made the trade), that equivalence was put into the formula, and you jockey it around until it fits the most trades.

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

Hill's chart says that the #1 pick is worth a lot more relative to the other picks in the draft by FAR, than Johnson's old school chart implied. And the recent trades at the top of the draft after Hill made his chart in 2017 all tend to confirm this.

A lot of the difference between #1 and #2 or #4 has to do with the QB talent at the top of the draft each year. The forthcoming combine hype machine will increase the value of our pick consistently from Johnson's chart value today, until it more closely resembles Hill's by late April.

What I'm saying is, in running trade scenarios, when we've been referencing recent trades as models, we've been predicting the Bears to get a lot more than when we use to Johnson chart to make the same predictions.

For example, when we trade with Indianapolis, we fall to the 4th pick, and what we get in return varies wildly using the Johnson chart or recent trades and the Hill chart.

The Johnson chart says moving from #1 to #4 is equal to the the #12 pick overall.

The Hill chart says moving from #1 to #4 is equal to the #3 pick! You'd need to package both #3 and #4 overall to get #1. That's how valuable that pick is.

Or said another way, moving from #1 to #4 is equal to #16 and #29. The #1 pick is worth THREE first rounders! Especially if one of them is a 2024 first rounder!

You can see why people are starting to include players in these scenarios. Its hard to make up that massive value with just other picks without doing a Herschel Walker type deal.

Here's one interesting idea: Eberflus needs to stock his defense. He knows the players at Indi really well in his system. We've seen the thought that Indi would pay this years first (#4), next years first and Quentin Nelson, but we worry about the player and the huge deal.

What if, instead, we got this years #4, Next year's number one (which is likely to be a high pick). an extra 3rd or 4th this year, and a handful of defensive players that Eberflus thinks are about to take the next step?

I love reading all these scenarios you guys come up with. Check out the Hill chart, and see if it changes any of your predictions?