Fields-O-Meter

[BearFan PHX]

Given that weve outsourced our tankathon to Carolina, it is easy to root for Justin to do well. We will know a lot more on Monday.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah I have no crystal ball - Im trying to lay out all the scenarios, not even to pick which one is best. That's someone elses job at this point. But thats the next question - who will our coaches be next year? Their thoughts go into this strongly.

If they change coaching, then it is time for a mini re-build QB and schemes. Getsy looked good last week having the offense ready, plays with receivers open, and Fields able to read what the defense was giving and didn't really good.  He had some hiccups with ball misplacement or hesitation a few times but also made some spectacular throws. Minnesota will be a great test to see if the Bears can put 3 good offensive performances together.  If so, we might see or hear how the queens have a poor db group, but we need to see the progress grow weekly.

[adam]

There are 3 independent variables, how Fields performs, how Williams performs, and if the Bears get the #1 pick or not. Now obviously there are additional ones like where their first pick is if not 1st, and where the 2nd first ends up. However, it seems to be 8 basic combinations of outcomes, so I tried to attach my best guess to what the Bears would do with the attached image.

Williams is drafted if he is the consensus #1 by a long shot and the Bears have the #1 pick, regardless of what Fields does. I think the Bears would attempt to trade for Williams even if they don't have the #1 if the team with the 1st pick is willing to trade (doubtful). Fields is traded in half the outcomes, in the other half, he is only kept long-term in 2 of them, and in the other 2, the Bears draft another QB high (#1 pick not available), keep Fields for one more year, then more than likely move on. So generically, 50% chance that Fields is traded, 25% chance he is retained long-term, and 25% he is kept only as a bridge QB.

The scary ones are if Fields struggles and Williams looks shaky and is not the consensus. Then it becomes a Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky draft all over again.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Caleb also has some question marks like Fields with waiting longer for plays to develop and getting happy feet to vacate the pocket.  Fields listed at 6-3 and Williams at 6-1 brings some size issues but better than Bryce Young 5'11.  He will be facing some tough opponents in the next few weeks to gauge how he plays.  This is his make or break moment.  Either way, both guys playing lights out should be good for the beloved.

Notre Dame 21, Utah 16, California, Washington 7, Oregon 8, and UCLA 18.  

 

Not only the shorter stature he has a bit of a sidearm throwing motion which means the ball is coming out low.  I know he goes flat out sidearm intentionally on some throws but there are many quick releases where the arm drops.  IMO he's a better prospect than any QB was in 2022.   

However, if Justin continues to develop toward top 10 QB performance there is no way I'm drafting Williams.  At that point Fields has enough talent to win with and because of (meaning he'll win you some games on his own).  Cap space means nothing, I want wins, playoff wins, and I'm not taking a chance on another rookie if I don't have to.  I also like Fields' leadership in the locker room and his work ethic.   I think those are very important traits to have in a QB.   That can make a team where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  

If Fields struggles or is inconsistent then bring on Williams.  I agree this game against Minn will tell us quite a bit.  

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Not only the shorter stature he has a bit of a sidearm throwing motion which means the ball is coming out low.  I know he goes flat out sidearm intentionally on some throws but there are many quick releases where the arm drops.  IMO he's a better prospect than any QB was in 2022.   

However, if Justin continues to develop toward top 10 QB performance there is no way I'm drafting Williams.  At that point Fields has enough talent to win with and because of (meaning he'll win you some games on his own).  Cap space means nothing, I want wins, playoff wins, and I'm not taking a chance on another rookie if I don't have to.  I also like Fields' leadership in the locker room and his work ethic.   I think those are very important traits to have in a QB.   That can make a team where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  

If Fields struggles or is inconsistent then bring on Williams.  I agree this game against Minn will tell us quite a bit.  

 

I would hate to miss out on a Mahomes but I remember the Brady Quinn or Jimmy Clausen hype too thinking they would be Joe Montana.  

Drafting a rookie will mean at least one maybe two years with no expectations.  Most likely new coaches and some turnover in players to get the right scheme fits. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

There are 3 independent variables, how Fields performs, how Williams performs, and if the Bears get the #1 pick or not. Now obviously there are additional ones like where their first pick is if not 1st, and where the 2nd first ends up. However, it seems to be 8 basic combinations of outcomes, so I tried to attach my best guess to what the Bears would do with the attached image.

Williams is drafted if he is the consensus #1 by a long shot and the Bears have the #1 pick, regardless of what Fields does. I think the Bears would attempt to trade for Williams even if they don't have the #1 if the team with the 1st pick is willing to trade (doubtful). Fields is traded in half the outcomes, in the other half, he is only kept long-term in 2 of them, and in the other 2, the Bears draft another QB high (#1 pick not available), keep Fields for one more year, then more than likely move on. So generically, 50% chance that Fields is traded, 25% chance he is retained long-term, and 25% he is kept only as a bridge QB.

The scary ones are if Fields struggles and Williams looks shaky and is not the consensus. Then it becomes a Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky draft all over again.

OK, that is just plain awesome.

[adam]

Thru 5 weeks, there is one QB in the NFL with 1,000+ yards passing, 10+ Passing TDs, 150+ yards rushing, and 1+ Rushing TD. 

[AZ54]

15 minutes ago, adam said:

Thru 5 weeks, there is one QB in the NFL with 1,000+ yards passing, 10+ Passing TDs, 150+ yards rushing, and 1+ Rushing TD. 

And yet they shall remain nameless.  I have a sneaky suspicion it’s not Russell Wilson.     

[AZ54]

Over at Pro Football Reference they have Field with the highest TD% in the league.   On the flip side he’s bottom 10 on INT%. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

And yet they shall remain nameless.  I have a sneaky suspicion it’s not Russell Wilson.     

I honestly thought Wilson was doing terrible based on the last few weeks, however, he has 12 TDs and 4 INTs, a 99.0 QB Rating, and a 65.9 Comp% on the season. All values better than Fields (though he has played 1 more game so TDs are not really a fair comp). Nonetheless, if you only watched Wilson the last two weeks, you would think he is a bottom 5 QB, but due to a few good games earlier in the season, he is still up there for TDs, QB Rating, INTs, and Comp% somehow. It also feels like he has taken a billion sacks, yet only has 19 thru 6 games, and Fields has 20 thru 5, so go figure. 

[adam]

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, that is just plain awesome.

Thanks, that's how I was looking at it in my brain. Easier to see in a table. Things get really interesting on the extremes. Within the picks variable, there are 2 other variables, Bears and Panthers. #1 and #2 doesn't seem realistic anymore. However, something like #1 and #11 do, or #2 and #8. I guess I will have to break down each draft pick combo with CAR getting 1-3, and Bears getting 6-12 and figure out the likelihood of each. I will do that after this weekend as the Bears outcome will sway things due to them playing MIN. CAR are 13.5 underdogs to MIA and it probably should be more. They should be 0-6 in 2 days. 

[BearFan PHX]

51 minutes ago, adam said:

Thanks, that's how I was looking at it in my brain. Easier to see in a table. Things get really interesting on the extremes. Within the picks variable, there are 2 other variables, Bears and Panthers. #1 and #2 doesn't seem realistic anymore. However, something like #1 and #11 do, or #2 and #8. I guess I will have to break down each draft pick combo with CAR getting 1-3, and Bears getting 6-12 and figure out the likelihood of each. I will do that after this weekend as the Bears outcome will sway things due to them playing MIN. CAR are 13.5 underdogs to MIA and it probably should be more. They should be 0-6 in 2 days. 

theres one more scenario, which is if we have the #1 pick, Williams is balling out and Fields takes us to one or two playoff wins. not saying thats gonna happen! but if it does, that changes everything too.

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, adam said:

I honestly thought Wilson was doing terrible based on the last few weeks, however, he has 12 TDs and 4 INTs, a 99.0 QB Rating, and a 65.9 Comp% on the season. All values better than Fields (though he has played 1 more game so TDs are not really a fair comp). Nonetheless, if you only watched Wilson the last two weeks, you would think he is a bottom 5 QB, but due to a few good games earlier in the season, he is still up there for TDs, QB Rating, INTs, and Comp% somehow. It also feels like he has taken a billion sacks, yet only has 19 thru 6 games, and Fields has 20 thru 5, so go figure. 

Yeah, after I mentioned him I went and looked him up out of curiosity.   I was also surprissed to see his numbers were good.   A game against a bad Bears defense certainly helped.  

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Thanks, that's how I was looking at it in my brain. Easier to see in a table. Things get really interesting on the extremes. Within the picks variable, there are 2 other variables, Bears and Panthers. #1 and #2 doesn't seem realistic anymore. However, something like #1 and #11 do, or #2 and #8. I guess I will have to break down each draft pick combo with CAR getting 1-3, and Bears getting 6-12 and figure out the likelihood of each. I will do that after this weekend as the Bears outcome will sway things due to them playing MIN. CAR are 13.5 underdogs to MIA and it probably should be more. They should be 0-6 in 2 days. 

Ton of work, lots of permutations.  Toss in the variables of college football injuries and it gets crazier.  For me after we play Carolina in Wk 10 we'll have an idea of just how bad they are and what is realistic for them in the draft.  By then we'll also have a sense if we pick top 10, or top 20.   

[adam]

Doing Jordan Love comps is hilarious:

Under 10 starts thru Year 4 w/ 200 attempts, 10 TDs, and less than 10 INTs, he best comps to the following QBs:

Jeff Driskel 202-345, 58.6%, 2120 yds, 13 TD, 8 INT, 6.1 Y/A, 79.4 Rating
Jordan Love 140-245, 57.1%, 1689 yds, 11 TD, 9 INT, 6.9 Y/A, 78.1 Rating
Brandon Allen 149-263, 56.7%, 1611 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT, 6.1 Y/A, 78.0 Rating

Love has played almost identical to Brandon Allen into his 4th year in the NFL. The biggest difference is Allen had 1/3 fewer INTs.

 

Here are the QBs just above and below that group:

Mason Rudolph
Brock Osweiler
------------
Driskel, Love, Allen
------------
Matt McGloin
Zach Mettenberger

So if Love improves, he can move into Osweiler and Rudolph territory. If he gets worse, he would drop into McGloin/Mettenberger range. GB has to know this, right?

[adam]

QBs in their first 3 seasons, over 5K passing yards, 35 TDs, less than 30 INTs, rating over 80, closest comps to Fields:

Brady (30 GS) 638-1017, 62.7%, 6613 yds, 46 TD, 26 INT, 6.5 Y/A, 85.9 Rating, 78-153 yds, 1 TD (Total: 6768 yds, 47 TD)
Fields (30 GS) 445-740, 60.1%, 5255 yds, 35 TD, 26 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 82.9 Rating, 271-1754 yds, 11 TD (Total: 7009 yds, 46 TD)
McNabb (32 GS) 447-1062, 57.9%, 6598 yds, 46 TD, 25 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 80.9 Rating, 168-1111 yds, 8 TD (Total: 7708 tds, 54 TD)

The Brady passing comp is crazy, but it is there, Fields just has rushing attempts vs passing attempts. Now he just needs the volume and sample size to grow.

If I up the rushing yards to 1K it's McNabb then the next two:

Jalen Hurts (34 GS) 392-1040, 62.3%, 7906 yds, 44 TD, 19 INT, 7.6 Y/A, 92.2 Rating, 367-1898 yds, 26 TD (9804 yds, 70 TD)

Lamar Jackson (37 GS) 606-947, 64.0%, 7085 yds, 68 TD, 18 INT, 7.5 Y/A, 102.6 Rating, 482-2906 yds, 19 TD (9991 yds, 87 TD) 

Obviously a few thing stand out. Jackson's passing TDs are insane, Hurts rushing TDs are crazy, and Jackson's rushing yards. However, even with all the crappy games under Nagy, and last year, if Fields has a solid 7 games, he has a chance to have the same amount of passing yards as Jackson after 37 starts and would be very close to Hurts' passing TDs and rushing yards. This would almost seem unimaginable before the season started.  

 

[BearFan PHX]

What site did you use to create those 3 year rankings? Id love to play with it too.

[BearFan PHX]

By the stats, after the last two weeks, Justin is about the 12th or 13th best passer in the league.

It's such a small sample size, two good games, and it included a loss. So it could just as easily be a bubble that will get averaged into 15 other games as fade as the season goes on.

But if he can sustain it, it will be something completely different. The coming weeks will tell us a lot.

Oh, and just to say it again, DJ Moore is a monster.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

QBs in their first 3 seasons, over 5K passing yards, 35 TDs, less than 30 INTs, rating over 80, closest comps to Fields:

Brady (30 GS) 638-1017, 62.7%, 6613 yds, 46 TD, 26 INT, 6.5 Y/A, 85.9 Rating, 78-153 yds, 1 TD (Total: 6768 yds, 47 TD)
Fields (30 GS) 445-740, 60.1%, 5255 yds, 35 TD, 26 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 82.9 Rating, 271-1754 yds, 11 TD (Total: 7009 yds, 46 TD)
McNabb (32 GS) 447-1062, 57.9%, 6598 yds, 46 TD, 25 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 80.9 Rating, 168-1111 yds, 8 TD (Total: 7708 tds, 54 TD)

You have a formula readily available to show how Vick might compare here?  If not I’ll do the slow math.  I’m curious s because I see a lot of Vick when I see Fields play.  He’s almost a McNabb / Vick hybrid prototype it would seem .

[adam]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

What site did you use to create those 3 year rankings? Id love to play with it too.

I used https://stathead.com/ it is an extension of Pro Football Reference. It is by subscription for some of the data. It's $60 a year for full access or $8 a month. Some may only want to use it during the season, so pay for 4-5 months for $32-$40 instead of the $60. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

You have a formula readily available to show how Vick might compare here?  If not I’ll do the slow math.  I’m curious s because I see a lot of Vick when I see Fields play.  He’s almost a McNabb / Vick hybrid prototype it would seem .

Let me look him up.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

You have a formula readily available to show how Vick might compare here?  If not I’ll do the slow math.  I’m curious s because I see a lot of Vick when I see Fields play.  He’s almost a McNabb / Vick hybrid prototype it would seem .

Interestingly enough, since Vick played sparingly in his first 3 seasons, and Fields has 30 starts and counting. Fields still has some work to do on his yards per game, but comp%, TD%, Y/A are really solid.
 

1. Fields (30 GS) 445-740, 60.1%, 5255 yds, 35 TD, 26 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 82.9 Rating, 271-1754 yds, 11 TD (Total: 7009 yds, 46 TD)

2. Vick (21 GS) 303-634, 52.2%, 4306 yds, 22 TD, 14 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 76.3 Rating, 184-1321 yds, 10 TD (Total: 5627 yds, 32 TD)

3. Cunningham (21 GS) 368-696, 52.9%, 4725 yds, 32 TD, 27 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 73.6 Rating, 171-1250 yds, 8 TD (Total: 5975 yds, 40 TD)

Kinda wild how close Vick and Cunningham were, both with 21 starts thru 3 seasons.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Interestingly enough, since Vick played sparingly in his first 3 seasons, and Fields has 30 starts and counting. Fields still has some work to do on his yards per game, but comp%, TD%, Y/A are really solid.
 

1. Fields (30 GS) 445-740, 60.1%, 5255 yds, 35 TD, 26 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 82.9 Rating, 271-1754 yds, 11 TD (Total: 7009 yds, 46 TD)

2. Vick (21 GS) 303-634, 52.2%, 4306 yds, 22 TD, 14 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 76.3 Rating, 184-1321 yds, 10 TD (Total: 5627 yds, 32 TD)

3. Cunningham (21 GS) 368-696, 52.9%, 4725 yds, 32 TD, 27 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 73.6 Rating, 171-1250 yds, 8 TD (Total: 5975 yds, 40 TD)

Kinda wild how close Vick and Cunningham were, both with 21 starts thru 3 seasons.

Thank you sir. Justin appears to be doing better than even I thought.  

You know Vick (part 2) seemed like a better player than the original version.  Maybe the maturity aspect?  He sure could sling it.  

[adam]

10 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Thank you sir. Justin appears to be doing better than even I thought.  

You know Vick (part 2) seemed like a better player than the original version.  Maybe the maturity aspect?  He sure could sling it.  

I thought so too, he felt like a highlight reel. However, if you just look at his stats, you would not think that at all.

Here are some wild numbers from Vick:

1. Most passing yards in a season: 3303
1a. 3K yard passing seasons: 2 (out of 13)
1b. 300 yd passing games: 13 (of 115 starts)
2. Most TD passes in a season: 21
2a. 20+ Passing TD seasons: 2 (out of 13)
3. Highest QB Rating in a season: 100.2 (only season over 95.0)
4. Most total TDs in a season: 30
5. Most games started in one season for PHI: 13
6a. Playoff games started in PHI: 1
7. MVPs: 0
8. Record with PHI: 20-20
9. # of 1K rushing seasons: 1
9a. Most rushing yards in a season: 1039
9b. # of 100 yd rushing games: 10 (out of 115 starts)
10. Fumbles: 98 (in 143 games)
11. #1 Pick was traded by SD to ATL. SD selected some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson at #5.
11a. LT made the AP Team 6 times and was MVP in 2006. Vick finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2004.
 

Let me know what you think of some of those. I was surprised at how low most of them were. 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Let me know what you think of some of those. I was surprised at how low most of them were. 

No running quarterback has ever won a Superbowl.  What you illustrated completely supports why they are trying to force Justin to be able to work the entire field through the pocket.  That's what opens the field for everything.