Week 3 Official Loss Thread - CHI @ KC, 9/24, 3:25PM CDT, Bears -50, O/U 72

[adam]

If the Bears allowed 38 to Love/GB and 27 to Mayfield/TB, this has a 50 burger all over it.

KC also held JAX to 9 points. 

KC 52-3

Fields by the numbers:

177 - Yards passing
23 - Yards rushing
12  - Screen passes
10 - Screen passes with terrible perimeter blocking
9 - Plays where Fields holds onto the ball too long on passes, missing open receivers who are clapping for the ball
8 - Sacks taken by Fields when he could either throw it away or evade the sack
3 - INT
2 - fumbles lost
1 - Pick-6

This will not be pretty, KC is a legit Super Bowl contender, and neither TB or GB are even playoff teams. 

I am not watching this one as we already know the result.

[adam]

There is no spread large enough that would have me bet against KC. I am putting money down on this one. Also going prop bets with Mahomes over 300, over 3 TDs. Easy money. 

[AZ54]

Seems about right and we've got to deal with Chris Jones coming straight up the middle.  We have no answer for that.  

[adam]

Early line is -12.5. There is no way the Bears are staying within 2 TDs of KC in KC. At best this is a 30-10 game, but I have a feeling it will be much worse, Mahomes with no pass rush is virtually unstoppable. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Would be hilarious if they won this game when nobody is picking them. I'm not betting on it.

Assuming they start 0-3, that'll mean the Bears will have lost 13 games in a row. At that point, you have to start asking the question of how many consecutive losses can Eberflus withstand before you have to fire him? Will Ryan Poles even be allowed to make that decision because of how bad it's gotten?

[Mongo3451]

I already bet the line before it goes up...

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Would be hilarious if they won this game when nobody is picking them. I'm not betting on it.

Assuming they start 0-3, that'll mean the Bears will have lost 13 games in a row. At that point, you have to start asking the question of how many consecutive losses can Eberflus withstand before you have to fire him? Will Ryan Poles even be allowed to make that decision because of how bad it's gotten?

With Poles, he stays unless the draft class looks horrible and other moves look like a disaster. If the draft picks look fine and Moore looks good and it’s more Fields is crap and defense lacks pass rushers - I think he can and should survive that. 
 

Flus on the other hand better start turning things around. I guess we shall see. Will be interesting. It’s a tough situation because Fields looks awful. I saw some clips and it looked like Bears had open guys all over the field on some of those sacks. 

[BearFan PHX]

The problem with Eberflus, is he preaches HITS, but then in the press conferences, he's not angry. Hes conciliatory. He looks for the positive things.

That's great in a grade school art teacher. But it is absolutely 100% in opposition to HITS.

Imagine what Deion Sanders, Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, Mike Ditka or any number of famous coaches from disciplined teams would say.

And I still think Eberflus unmasked himself with that 4th and 1 call last week. That was fire-able in and of itself.

Its OK to lose. Its not great to suck, but OK. You can fail and learn. But when you make basic errors that any high school coach would know not to to make - that says something.

There must be thousands of competent coaches, but only a handful can give you an edge. Eberflu may be competent in general, but he will never give us an edge. We can possibly win with him, but we will not win because of him.

I say Poles should clean house. But in reality, they probably wont fire a HC after 2 years.

So we draft a Caleb Williams. You want this guy developing him? Can we get out of this Groundhogs day repeating loop, and bring in the right guy for the new QB?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

The problem with Eberflus, is he preaches HITS, but then in the press conferences, he's not angry. Hes conciliatory. He looks for the positive things.

That's great in a grade school art teacher. But it is absolutely 100% in opposition to HITS.

Imagine what Deion Sanders, Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, Mike Ditka or any number of famous coaches from disciplined teams would say.

And I still think Eberflus unmasked himself with that 4th and 1 call last week. That was fire-able in and of itself.

Its OK to lose. Its not great to suck, but OK. You can fail and learn. But when you make basic errors that any high school coach would know not to to make - that says something.

There must be thousands of competent coaches, but only a handful can give you an edge. Eberflu may be competent in general, but he will never give us an edge. We can possibly win with him, but we will not win because of him.

I say Poles should clean house. But in reality, they probably wont fire a HC after 2 years.

So we draft a Caleb Williams. You want this guy developing him? Can we get out of this Groundhogs day repeating loop, and bring in the right guy for the new QB?

If they end up with Caleb Williams because Bears were trash - zero chance flus is coaching him. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

38 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

 

The problem with Eberflus, is he preaches HITS, but then in the press conferences, he's not angry. Hes conciliatory. He looks for the positive things.

 

Yeah considering how big a fan he is of Rod Marinelli’s, you’d think he’d have more fire in his belly.  

[BearFan PHX]

34 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

If they end up with Caleb Williams because Bears were trash - zero chance flus is coaching him. 

But what if we win 6 games, and use Carolina's #1 overall? And then get a pass rusher with our #7 pick?

I really dont think Eberflus is a positive difference maker. he might be "fine" or "professional" but like I said, there are probably thousands of coaches like that at all different levels.

We need to find winners, difference makers, people who add to our winningness. I dont think Eberflus is that guy. If we tank, youre probably right, but i dont want him hanging around after 6 or 7 wins.

[Stinger226]

I don't remember it was so long ago but were we in both games until   TOs turned into points for the other team? It may not, be as bad as the final score showed. 

Does anyone think we played better  in this game than the first? I realize it was still a loss but can you lose and still play a little better? I think so. 

If we go 0-3 and then go 6-8 or get a lucky 7-7, are we growing as a team?

As Adam said Justin is on a pace to get over3600 yards passing and DJ Moore is on pace to be a  around a 1000 yard WR. Are we a better team?

[Mongo3451]

15 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If we go 0-3 and then go 6-8 or get a lucky 7-7, are we growing as a team?

Yes.  If we hit 7-7, the hard read will still be Justin and how he is trending.  Obviously, any QB will be able to succeed better next year, due to us having a great cap situation and an arsenal of picks.  

Imagine if Justin fails, Bagent thrives, Carolina finishes last and we get a top ten pick.  That Carolina pick would being a monster haul.

[AZ54]

22 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

The problem with Eberflus, is he preaches HITS, but then in the press conferences, he's not angry. Hes conciliatory. He looks for the positive things.

That's great in a grade school art teacher. But it is absolutely 100% in opposition to HITS.

Imagine what Deion Sanders, Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, Mike Ditka or any number of famous coaches from disciplined teams would say.

And I still think Eberflus unmasked himself with that 4th and 1 call last week. That was fire-able in and of itself.

Its OK to lose. Its not great to suck, but OK. You can fail and learn. But when you make basic errors that any high school coach would know not to to make - that says something.

There must be thousands of competent coaches, but only a handful can give you an edge. Eberflu may be competent in general, but he will never give us an edge. We can possibly win with him, but we will not win because of him.

I say Poles should clean house. But in reality, they probably wont fire a HC after 2 years.

So we draft a Caleb Williams. You want this guy developing him? Can we get out of this Groundhogs day repeating loop, and bring in the right guy for the new QB?

I don't agree with that at all.  Flus' body language is an easy read and you know when he's upset and not happy.   He took over play calling, likely for the rest of the season from Alan Williams.  I wouldn't expect him to be calling out players or coaches in a press conference.  if you have class and are willing to tell people to their face in private that their performance is bad then you don't ever need to do it in public.   

[Stinger226]

Good coaches don't call their players  out in  public, like AZ said you do that in private. A good way to lose your team is call them out to the press.

[BearFan PHX]

I dunno, I think of famous press conferecnes of high motivational coaches and they are angry after a loss like that - especially in week one.

Your point about not airing dirty laundry is a fair one, but i sure hope he is angry with them in the locker room. Cuz this effort is not "HITS"

[AZ54]

IF... big IF... we are going to win this game we must run the ball all game long.   That won't be happening up the middle with Chris Jones back but we're actually better working the edges of the Dline.    We need to keep the pressure off Fields and have a good enough run game for play action to help him with more time in the pocket.   We need TDs on every trip into the redzone.   We need to win time of possession as that is the best way to minimize Mahomes' damage.   

Somebody needs to find a way to get enough pressure on Mahomes to keep them around 25pts.   I'm not saying we'll score 26pts but as thresholds go anything beyond that is likely getting into 6 sigma territory for our offense.   

All long shots but this is the way.  

 

[adam]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

IF... big IF... we are going to win this game we must run the ball all game long.   That won't be happening up the middle with Chris Jones back but we're actually better working the edges of the Dline.    We need to keep the pressure off Fields and have a good enough run game for play action to help him with more time in the pocket.   We need TDs on every trip into the redzone.   We need to win time of possession as that is the best way to minimize Mahomes' damage.   

Somebody needs to find a way to get enough pressure on Mahomes to keep them around 25pts.   I'm not saying we'll score 26pts but as thresholds go anything beyond that is likely getting into 6 sigma territory for our offense.   

All long shots but this is the way.  

 

They also need to stretch the defense out. Against TB, I saw 8 to 9 players in the box, sometimes 10, but some of that was due to the Bears formations. Spread them out, go 4-wide even if it is with a RB or TE that goes in motion to the outside. Leave the remaining RB or TE in to chip then become a check down. This gives Fields more room to run if needed and forces the defense into a predictable defensive formation. 

This would also help the run game with some draws or wide zone. I haven't seen any of this. 

After watching a bunch of other games, the Bears rarely throw any short quick passes (stick, dig, curl, etc) where the receiver runs 5-7 yards then just faces and the QB shielding the ball from the defender. If they sell a deep route and the defender starts turning their hips, this is an easy pitch and catch scenario that I see 10+ times a game in every other offense but the Bears. 

[Mongo3451]

It's a combo of what AZ and Adam said.  If we can run 30 and pass 30, that is the ticket.  I want to see 8 pass attempts over twenty yards. It would nice to hit three of them and fantastic if it's more.  Gotta throw deep to get the defense outta the box.

[Stinger226]

Everyone here  is making good points, prey they see what we see.

[adam]

My original projection was 52-3, but if Fields does play looser, I can see them putting up a few scores. So I will adjust my projection to 45-17 Chiefs.

[Stinger226]

41 minutes ago, adam said:

My original projection was 52-3, but if Fields does play looser, I can see them putting up a few scores. So I will adjust my projection to 45-17 Chiefs.

You know I hope you're wrong but you probably are spot on. Mahomes is the bomb but they dont have any difference makers in the WR room. Also they dont have a good running game. Crossing my fingers.

[BearFan PHX]

I dont know how much the Chiefs will win by, but I do know that if they needed to beat us by 24 points to win, they would.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

You know I hope you're wrong but you probably are spot on. Mahomes is the bomb but they dont have any difference makers in the WR room. Also they dont have a good running game. Crossing my fingers.

If Kelce is healthy, he will have over 10 receptions for over 100 yards, all first down catches and 2 TDs. Mahomes will at least run one in and throw for 4. 

Against GB, our defense showed that you don't need good receivers to beat the Bears.

On defense, Jones dominates good opponents, he is going to make the interior of the line look like a turnstile. 

 

I would almost expect the Bears to get the ball first, drive down and score a TD. We will all get our hopes up, then KC will smash them for 3.5 quarters and then the Bears will get a late score to pad the score.  In the same losing streak, the Bears have allowed 25+ in EVERY game. Before that they held 4 out of 6 to 20 or less (Roquan and Quinn). It is wild to think that they traded away Roquan and Quinn and since that point they have not won or allowed less than 25 pts per game. 

The offense also has 9 straight with 24 or less. 

[adam]

Some milestones:

1. Mooney needs 46 yards to pass Earl Bennett for 26th all-time for the Bears.
2. Moore is tied with Garrett Wolfe with 129 receiving yards, 243rd in franchise history.
3. Fields needs 58 yards rushing yds to pass Rashaan Salaam for 25th all-time for the Bears.
4. Kmet needs 42 yards to pass Ryan Wetnight for 50th on the Bears All-time Receiving Yards.
5. Santos needs 8 FGs to pass George Blanda for 6th on the Bears All-time FG list. 
6. Jackson's next INT will tie him with Doug Plank with 15 INTs (T-33rd)
7. Edmunds is tied for 220th on the Bears all-time tackles list, he needs only 1,032 to pass Brian Urlacher for 1st all-time.