2024 Draft Board

[ChileBear]

27 minutes ago, jason said:

At best, John Doe got help from his wingmen to get two fat Girl’s’ phone numbers. 

The Bears sucked during his 5-game stretch, only won two games, one of which was a squeaker versus the lowly Panthers, and Bagent averaged less than 200yds per game. 

I love the story like anyone else, but let’s not get it confused with revisionist history. Bagent sucked. But he did a few things differently than Fields, one of which is getting rid of the ball quickly. That was clearly by design to make up for Bagent’s glaring weaknesses. (Gee, imagine if they game-planned specifically for the things Fields does well.)

Comparing the two with any stat is laughable at best given how much the team had to change just so Bagent could look professional.

Wow, did Bagent piss in your cereal? imDo he showed he is at least a competent backup and perhaps could be developed with the right coach/coordinator. Do I think he's our franchise guy? Of course not, but he showed confidence and moxy for how he came into the league.

[ChileBear]

I now hope Jerry Jones has a melt down and trades the farm to move up for Caleb at no. 1.

[Stinger226]

30 minutes ago, jason said:

At best, John Doe got help from his wingmen to get two fat Girl’s’ phone numbers. 

The Bears sucked during his 5-game stretch, only won two games, one of which was a squeaker versus the lowly Panthers, and Bagent averaged less than 200yds per game. 

I love the story like anyone else, but let’s not get it confused with revisionist history. Bagent sucked. But he did a few things differently than Fields, one of which is getting rid of the ball quickly. That was clearly by design to make up for Bagent’s glaring weaknesses. (Gee, imagine if they game-planned specifically for the things Fields does well.)

Comparing the two with any stat is laughable at best given how much the team had to change just so Bagent could look professional.

One time a guy in a band told me, if you ask 10 women to f***, 9 will slap you , one will say hell yeah. I agree comparing the two states nothing. The  Bagent scenario does make one statement, if you taylor the calls to your QB, you will notice better results.

[Stinger226]

Just now, ChileBear said:

I now hope Jerry Jones has a melt down and trades the farm to move up for Caleb at no. 1.

Thinking that myself. He's flamboyant enough to react emotionally and do that.

[Pixote]

23 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Thinking that myself. He's flamboyant enough to react emotionally and do that.

My guess is Jones still believes in Dak but will fire his HC and sign Billy boy hoping he can bring the success he had in NE with him. IMO, Billy is fools gold. 

[Stinger226]

33 minutes ago, Pixote said:

My guess is Jones still believes in Dak but will fire his HC and sign Billy boy hoping he can bring the success he had in NE with him. IMO, Billy is fools gold. 

Clearly Zak  is a good QB but not great. Belichick may be there and tell him who he wants.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, jason said:

At best, John Doe got help from his wingmen to get two fat Girl’s’ phone numbers. 

The Bears sucked during his 5-game stretch, only won two games, one of which was a squeaker versus the lowly Panthers, and Bagent averaged less than 200yds per game. 

I love the story like anyone else, but let’s not get it confused with revisionist history. Bagent sucked. But he did a few things differently than Fields, one of which is getting rid of the ball quickly. That was clearly by design to make up for Bagent’s glaring weaknesses. (Gee, imagine if they game-planned specifically for the things Fields does well.)

Comparing the two with any stat is laughable at best given how much the team had to change just so Bagent could look professional.

I wasn't necessarily doing an endorsement of Bagent over Fields.  It was an endorsement of the guy that gets rid of the ball.  When you have Thayer yelling in the mic to throw it, that means something.  You've seen the receivers running un-checked, while he's looking at them, and he doesn't pull the trigger.  I'm not satisfied with the rate of improvement. 

Let's talk about tailoring an offense for Justin.  You can't do it!  He can't hit the slant. He almost never reads the read option correctly.  Since he can't do that, you can't run the screen game.  It also affects your running game because there is always an extra man in the box.  Those are all staples of the running quarterback.  Scream for the rollout everybody!  Now, we've taken half the field out of the play.  Who ya gonna burn when the safetys' job got exponentially easier?  Don't forget the SPY that's in the box.  His job got easier too.  The key to everyone's thinking in tailoring an offense is just a phalicy.  Why does it no longer work for Hurts, when he has weapons and a great OL?  Why does it work for Lamar?  He throws the slant and is great at the read option.

They write songs about them "Fat Bottom Girls".  I love me some badonkadonk!

[jason]

1 hour ago, ChileBear said:

Wow, did Bagent piss in your cereal? imDo he showed he is at least a competent backup and perhaps could be developed with the right coach/coordinator. Do I think he's our franchise guy? Of course not, but he showed confidence and moxy for how he came into the league.

He looked like a bad backup with potential to be a competent NFL journeyman. I also liked his confidence. And, yeah, he surprised everyone by not being 100% terrible. But when people start saying he should start over Fields because of stat A or stat B, it gets a little ridiculous.

[jason]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I wasn't necessarily doing an endorsement of Bagent over Fields.  It was an endorsement of the guy that gets rid of the ball.  When you have Thayer yelling in the mic to throw it, that means something.  You've seen the receivers running un-checked, while he's looking at them, and he doesn't pull the trigger.  I'm not satisfied with the rate of improvement. 

Let's talk about tailoring an offense for Justin.  You can't do it!  He can't hit the slant. He almost never reads the read option correctly.  Since he can't do that, you can't run the screen game.  It also affects your running game because there is always an extra man in the box.  Those are all staples of the running quarterback.  Scream for the rollout everybody!  Now, we've taken half the field out of the play.  Who ya gonna burn when the safetys' job got exponentially easier?  Don't forget the SPY that's in the box.  His job got easier too.  The key to everyone's thinking in tailoring an offense is just a phalicy.  Why does it no longer work for Hurts, when he has weapons and a great OL?  Why does it work for Lamar?  He throws the slant and is great at the read option.

You make some solid points, but it's not that simple IMO. Fields lacks confidence, which impacts the slant, etc. You mentioned rollouts, which is odd because that doesn't appear to even be in the playbook. Maybe if it were run a few times then the Bears could actually take advantage of misdirection. There is virtually no misdirection or surprise on the 2023 Chicago Bears' offense. 

Look at Stroud yesterday.

TD #1 - Fake toss right, WR screen left for 

TD #2 - Fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, dump off and the receiver gets 60yds YAC.

TD #3 - Gee, whattaya know? Another fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, bomb to a wide open WR who had a ton of time to run a slow-developing double move.

Everyone's blowing Stroud like he didn't make three easy throws. Put Fields in just some of those situations and maybe he looks a bit different.

[adam]

27 minutes ago, jason said:

You make some solid points, but it's not that simple IMO. Fields lacks confidence, which impacts the slant, etc. You mentioned rollouts, which is odd because that doesn't appear to even be in the playbook. Maybe if it were run a few times then the Bears could actually take advantage of misdirection. There is virtually no misdirection or surprise on the 2023 Chicago Bears' offense. 

Look at Stroud yesterday.

TD #1 - Fake toss right, WR screen left for 

TD #2 - Fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, dump off and the receiver gets 60yds YAC.

TD #3 - Gee, whattaya know? Another fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, bomb to a wide open WR who had a ton of time to run a slow-developing double move.

Everyone's blowing Stroud like he didn't make three easy throws. Put Fields in just some of those situations and maybe he looks a bit different.

Yeah, it's not rocket science either. If you can put guys in motion you stress the defense. Misdirection then makes them a half step slow because they can't commit 100% one way. So even on plays that are not misdirection later, the LBs are a step slow to the hole because they have to ensure the play is not going in the other direction. 

Getsy's play design was worse than just taking plays out of Madden. 

Nowadays, you can have analytics and AI build you undefendable plays against various defenses. I honestly don't know how the Bears offense could look that bad two years in a row. At least under Nagy, it was serviceable. Since Getsy it has turned into a pile of dung.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, jason said:

You make some solid points, but it's not that simple IMO. Fields lacks confidence, which impacts the slant, etc. You mentioned rollouts, which is odd because that doesn't appear to even be in the playbook. Maybe if it were run a few times then the Bears could actually take advantage of misdirection. There is virtually no misdirection or surprise on the 2023 Chicago Bears' offense. 

Look at Stroud yesterday.

TD #1 - Fake toss right, WR screen left for 

TD #2 - Fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, dump off and the receiver gets 60yds YAC.

TD #3 - Gee, whattaya know? Another fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, bomb to a wide open WR who had a ton of time to run a slow-developing double move.

Everyone's blowing Stroud like he didn't make three easy throws. Put Fields in just some of those situations and maybe he looks a bit different.

He can't throw the slant because of his slow throwing motion.  He either gets his guy killed or throws the ball into a defenders helmet.  Justin can't process fast enough.

TD 1 happens because the defense does not have a loaded box or SPY.  Fails with Justin.  It's just numbers plus geometry.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, jason said:

He looked like a bad backup with potential to be a competent NFL journeyman. I also liked his confidence. And, yeah, he surprised everyone by not being 100% terrible. But when people start saying he should start over Fields because of stat A or stat B, it gets a little ridiculous.

Oh for sure - I dont think anyone is saying Bagent should have started over Fields - just using Bagent as a baseline to show that Fields being sacked so much isnt just the OL and WRs, but Fields holding on to the ball too long - compared to Bagent who didnt hold it too long, but threw more interceptions.

[AZ54]

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/caleb-williams-draft-scouting-2024/

 

[adam]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/caleb-williams-draft-scouting-2024/

 

Not a bad read. I found a few comments interesting, first, this was the first weakness "Is vulnerable to shouldering too much of the offense’s responsibilities" - I lol'd at that.

The true weakness that you can't develop is height. If he really is under 6'1", it is going to be scary, because if he only 6' and 1/2 an inch, he would be shorter than Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts. Fields and Stroud are 6'3" and Fields even gets a lot of balls batted down.

[adam]

My bet is he skips the combine and gets measured at his pro day. A big red flag if he skips the combine.

[AZ54]

You can't watch this and not think we're taking Williams #1 overall.   I still question his leadership and that's a huge red flag at the moment for me.  He is just 21 and most people grow over time but I don't want a selfish Kyler Murray type on the roster regardless of physical talent.  Just like Jalen Carter last year how Williams handles the draft process will determine a lot for me.  I also need to see the measurables just for validation.  6' and under starts getting tricky to play QB in the NFL, that's another issue Murray has to deal with. 

If things don't go his way early can Williams handle the negative press coverage?  Boos in the stadium?  Plus in Chicago he'd have to win over the locker room and that won't be easy.  Can he handle a 4 game losing streak where he played poorly and continue to put the work in and lead the team?     

This is a weird situation for me because I still think Fields is a top 15 QB in the league and will easily grow into a top 10 QB with the right talent around him.  The options are Fields plus a bounty for trading down which could easily net the Bears a few more Pro Bowl caliber players.   Assuming Poles continues to draft well, then the trade down scenario gets so much future talent it almost certainly sets this team up long term to be a perennial playoff contender.   

Draft Williams and trade Fields also gets something but not nearly as high, plus carries risk of Williams flaming out.  Williams has to be good enough to offset the talent gap of what we'd lose over the next 2 drafts.  Some might say the rookie contract is enough to offset that with FAs.   

Williams is almost certainly headed to Chicago for a pre-draft visit.  

 

[ChileBear]

11 hours ago, AZ54 said:

     This is a weird situation for me because I still think Fields is a top 15 QB in the league and will easily grow into a top 10 QB with the right talent around him.  The options are Fields plus a bounty for trading down which could easily net the Bears a few more Pro Bowl caliber players.   Assuming Poles continues to draft well, then the trade down scenario gets so much future talent it almost certainly sets this team up long term to be a perennial playoff contender.   

Draft Williams and trade Fields also gets something but not nearly as high, plus carries risk of Williams flaming out.  Williams has to be good enough to offset the talent gap of what we'd lose over the next 2 drafts.  Some might say the rookie contract is enough to offset that with FAs.   

Williams is almost certainly headed to Chicago for a pre-draft visit.  

 

And that's the conundrum for Poles. Great problem to have, but gonna be nay-sayers either way. I just hope this offseason gets us over the hump and I can look forward to a solid winning team for a change.

[Stinger226]

On 1/17/2024 at 11:29 AM, ChileBear said:

And that's the conundrum for Poles. Great problem to have, but gonna be nay-sayers either way. I just hope this offseason gets us over the hump and I can look forward to a solid winning team for a change.

It only matters that he gets it right no matter what he decides. 

[jason]

On 1/15/2024 at 1:12 PM, adam said:

Yeah, it's not rocket science either. If you can put guys in motion you stress the defense. Misdirection then makes them a half step slow because they can't commit 100% one way. So even on plays that are not misdirection later, the LBs are a step slow to the hole because they have to ensure the play is not going in the other direction. 

Getsy's play design was worse than just taking plays out of Madden. 

Nowadays, you can have analytics and AI build you undefendable plays against various defenses. I honestly don't know how the Bears offense could look that bad two years in a row. At least under Nagy, it was serviceable. Since Getsy it has turned into a pile of dung.

Pretty much my exact POV. I don't see how we have at worst the second most mobile QB in the NFL and barely ever have him out of the pocket. Barely ever have misdirection. It's like Getsy played Madden with Peyton Manning, saw things work, and thought it naturally translated to Fields. Mind-boggling.

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, jason said:

Pretty much my exact POV. I don't see how we have at worst the second most mobile QB in the NFL and barely ever have him out of the pocket. Barely ever have misdirection. It's like Getsy played Madden with Peyton Manning, saw things work, and thought it naturally translated to Fields. Mind-boggling.

I think it was as simple as he thought he could make Justin into Rodgers. 

[jason]

On 1/17/2024 at 12:06 AM, AZ54 said:

You can't watch this and not think we're taking Williams #1 overall.   I still question his leadership and that's a huge red flag at the moment for me.  He is just 21 and most people grow over time but I don't want a selfish Kyler Murray type on the roster regardless of physical talent.  Just like Jalen Carter last year how Williams handles the draft process will determine a lot for me.  I also need to see the measurables just for validation.  6' and under starts getting tricky to play QB in the NFL, that's another issue Murray has to deal with. 

If things don't go his way early can Williams handle the negative press coverage?  Boos in the stadium?  Plus in Chicago he'd have to win over the locker room and that won't be easy.  Can he handle a 4 game losing streak where he played poorly and continue to put the work in and lead the team?     

This is a weird situation for me because I still think Fields is a top 15 QB in the league and will easily grow into a top 10 QB with the right talent around him.  The options are Fields plus a bounty for trading down which could easily net the Bears a few more Pro Bowl caliber players.   Assuming Poles continues to draft well, then the trade down scenario gets so much future talent it almost certainly sets this team up long term to be a perennial playoff contender.   

Draft Williams and trade Fields also gets something but not nearly as high, plus carries risk of Williams flaming out.  Williams has to be good enough to offset the talent gap of what we'd lose over the next 2 drafts.  Some might say the rookie contract is enough to offset that with FAs.   

Williams is almost certainly headed to Chicago for a pre-draft visit.  

 

I guess I'll be the one who says I watched it and wouldn't take him #1 for the Bears.

1. Arm Strength - Great. He will make some throws others can't. But he won't have the time to load up and throw the varying routes. Shown in this video.

2. Pocket Presence - I watched the highlights, and in one play he had a full ten seconds from snap to throw. Hilarious. Justin Fields has likely NEVER had ten seconds in a single play with the Bears. He'll need pocket presence if he comes to the Bears.

3. Playing in Rhythm - Wow, this one sounds just like Fields coming out of college. Everything is different with timing and plays when under pressure and the window collapses. Watch the highlight, and just about all the "doesn't play on time"-plays are when pressured. Imagine that. The guy even says Williams passes up the throw/play he should make, hunting for the bigger play while going through progressions.

The Bears would be better off trading down, stock-piling picks, and building a team like the Cowboys did with the Herschel Walker trade.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, jason said:

I guess I'll be the one who says I watched it and wouldn't take him #1 for the Bears.

1. Arm Strength - Great. He will make some throws others can't. But he won't have the time to load up and throw the varying routes. Shown in this video.

2. Pocket Presence - I watched the highlights, and in one play he had a full ten seconds from snap to throw. Hilarious. Justin Fields has likely NEVER had ten seconds in a single play with the Bears. He'll need pocket presence if he comes to the Bears.

3. Playing in Rhythm - Wow, this one sounds just like Fields coming out of college. Everything is different with timing and plays when under pressure and the window collapses. Watch the highlight, and just about all the "doesn't play on time"-plays are when pressured. Imagine that. The guy even says Williams passes up the throw/play he should make, hunting for the bigger play while going through progressions.

The Bears would be better off trading down, stock-piling picks, and building a team like the Cowboys did with the Herschel Walker trade.

And you have to ask is he a product of the system or???  His backup threw six TDs in their last bowl game. 

[adam]

Here is the consensus Big Board where they take all the popular big boards and compile them into a consensus list:

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024?pos=ALL

Interesting that #1 is Williams and #9 is Odunze. This is not mock draft positions, but BPA rankings.

[adam]

I know there is a lot of concern about the Bears not having a 2nd round pick, but technically their #9 pick is their 2nd pick, just 23+ picks early (like a free trade up). 

If they go QB at #1, they have to go WR if Nabers or Odunze are on the board at #9. If not, I think you trade down with that pick.

If they keep Fields and trade down from #1, then I would still apply the same theory. Get one WR, then consider trading down from #9 as well. So something like 1 to 3, then select MHJ, gain a 2nd, move from 9 to the teens and gain another 2nd rounder. That would be sweet. 4 picks in the top 60.

[jason]

14 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And you have to ask is he a product of the system or???  His backup threw six TDs in their last bowl game. 

THANK YOU! I remember thinking that when I watched the game, but I already let that slip in memory.

I can't tell you how many friends of mine have called or texted to tell me they hope the Bears screw up, pick Williams, restart the cycle, and stay the perpetually bad Chicago Bears team. That's exactly how it feels. Starting over and over and over again. We may as well have kept Lovie Smith and accepted 9-7 every year.