Lucky Luciano Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, adam said: The best part, which some people are missing is, this really is a no-lose situation. Poles has had 2x get out of jail free cards, last year and this year. If they run it back with Fields, he will have a mountain of draft capital to play with (I would even expect a trade up at some point). If they go with Williams, his floor makes it fairly low risk and the QB clock is reset, allowing them to sign some bigger names and retain more of their guys as they hit FA. i CERTAINLY hope this is the year to pick the franchise qb. the first overall pick is a gift that we just can't use to stock up on filling the roster. look at it this way, we would have been happy getting a top 10 pick (#9). that we have two is just gravy and we have to pull the trigger on it to go for the franchise high end qb. is he guaranteed to become a franchise player? of course not but if you use that as a yardstick as to how to approach this they you would NEVER pick a top 10 qb. you go for broke. even loading up on first round picks if we traded down is going to cause a lot of cap troubles that will all come due at the same time. how would we pay for them in 4 years from now? it's doubtful we could even KEEP what we drafted this year if they all turn out good+ players. so stocking up with first and second round talent has serious drawbacks in our future team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said: i CERTAINLY hope this is the year to pick the franchise qb. the first overall pick is a gift that we just can't use to stock up on filling the roster. look at it this way, we would have been happy getting a top 10 pick (#9). that we have two is just gravy and we have to pull the trigger on it to go for the franchise high end qb. is he guaranteed to become a franchise player? of course not but if you use that as a yardstick as to how to approach this they you would NEVER pick a top 10 qb. you go for broke. even loading up on first round picks if we traded down is going to cause a lot of cap troubles that will all come due at the same time. how would we pay for them in 4 years from now? it's doubtful we could even KEEP what we drafted this year if they all turn out good+ players. so stocking up with first and second round talent has serious drawbacks in our future team. That's exactly right. This is the year to take that difference making franchise QB. It's OK if they think it's Maye or whatever, but whoever you identify as the best QB in the draft this year, you gotta take him. If you identify it is Maye would you consider moving down one slot with Washington? Sure. But youve got to take the #1 guy youve identified this year, and in all likelihood, it's the obvious choice - Caleb Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 34 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: That's exactly right. This is the year to take that difference making franchise QB. It's OK if they think it's Maye or whatever, but whoever you identify as the best QB in the draft this year, you gotta take him. If you identify it is Maye would you consider moving down one slot with Washington? Sure. But youve got to take the #1 guy youve identified this year, and in all likelihood, it's the obvious choice - Caleb Williams. they absolutely CAN'T trade down further than #2 and then ONLY if washington tells you who the pick is and it's not the one you were going to pick at #1 as your top choice. any further down and you risk your target qb (no matter who he is) will be picked before you get a chance to grab him. that's dumb management. if he is good enough to pick in the top 5 and considered the best qb in the draft then there is no way you gamble he will be there when you pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Lucky Luciano said: even loading up on first round picks if we traded down is going to cause a lot of cap troubles that will all come due at the same time. how would we pay for them in 4 years from now? it's doubtful we could even KEEP what we drafted this year if they all turn out good+ players. But if everything goes as planned and a higher percentage of your 1st and 2nd round draftees do well, and your team does well some of those players become trade bait for future 1st - 2nd round picks (ala Patriot-way) and thus “resetting the contract clock” on a bunch of players. IE: Justin himself a former 1st round pick could theoretically net at least one 2nd round pick and some even think 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 By far the most important thing in having a superbowl contending team is the QB. There are only a small handful of QBs who you can consider likely to take your team to the superbowl and win it. Everything else is secondary. Therefore, if you believe there is a QB of that caliber in the draft, you take him whatever the cost. Teams often trade future first rounders to move up to get a guy like that - that's how valuable they are. If someone offers us a haul of picks for the #1 pick that's because they think it's WORTH it. And they are right. Now it's true that you never know what a draft pick will become, but if you don't try then you'll never have a QB worthy of taking you to the big game and winning it. Justin Fields is so far from that it's silly we even discuss it. We need someone to stand toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes. Every team does. Most years there isn't someone like that available in the draft at all. This year there is at least one. If Poles doesn't take a QB with a top pick, he will get fired and deserve it. And we will suffer through another decade of awful teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 28 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said: they absolutely CAN'T trade down further than #2 and then ONLY if washington tells you who the pick is and it's not the one you were going to pick at #1 as your top choice. any further down and you risk your target qb (no matter who he is) will be picked before you get a chance to grab him. that's dumb management. if he is good enough to pick in the top 5 and considered the best qb in the draft then there is no way you gamble he will be there when you pick. I agree except of course Washington wouldnt be bound by whatever they said, so youd have to have two QBs that you value similarly. I suspect after all the analysis they will do and we will do, we will think Williams is the only one, and therefore no trade. But I need to watch a lot more film to be sure. But after i do, I wont be at all surprised if Williams is the guy all alone on the top of the pile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, adam said: The best part, which some people are missing is, this really is a no-lose situation. Poles has had 2x get out of jail free cards, last year and this year. If they run it back with Fields, he will have a mountain of draft capital to play with (I would even expect a trade up at some point). If they go with Williams, his floor makes it fairly low risk and the QB clock is reset, allowing them to sign some bigger names and retain more of their guys as they hit FA. If I remember correctly didn't NE, always keep moving back in the draft and got multiple picks in 2, 3, and 4th rounds and when someone earned a big contract, would trade him and keep the cycle going forward with lots of picks? I think Poles is in the position to do the same with multi high picks in the future. A team can handle several players with big contracts but can't handle lots. EJAC is a perfect example that should have been moved on from instead of paying big money to. His best years were before he was paid. He may view a better value at taking a JJ McCarthy later in the first round by moving back from picks one and nine. Load up and allow McCarthy to develop a year or two. Poles passed on Carter because of character issues, he nay choose to move on from Williams for similar reasons. The medical and personal interviews are huge for Williams getting drafted at one, it's the key to this complete off-season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 17 Author Report Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: If I remember correctly didn't NE, always keep moving back in the draft and got multiple picks in 2, 3, and 4th rounds and when someone earned a big contract, would trade him and keep the cycle going forward with lots of picks? I think Poles is in the position to do the same with multi high picks in the future. A team can handle several players with big contracts but can't handle lots. EJAC is a perfect example that should have been moved on from instead of paying big money to. His best years were before he was paid. He may view a better value at taking a JJ McCarthy later in the first round by moving back from picks one and nine. Load up and allow McCarthy to develop a year or two. Poles passed on Carter because of character issues, he nay choose to move on from Williams for similar reasons. The medical and personal interviews are huge for Williams getting drafted at one, it's the key to this complete off-season. NE drafted Mac Jones. I think they were able to do that when they had Brady, which allowed them to continually turn over the roster without having to sign guys to second contracts (Chandler Jones, etc). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 Just now, adam said: NE drafted Mac Jones. I think they were able to do that when they had Brady, which allowed them to continually turn over the roster without having to sign guys to second contracts (Chandler Jones, etc). Correct, having Brady allowed them to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 Heard Dave Wannsted on the SCORE and he suggested Tyrek Stevenson play the FS spot and slide Terrell Smith into the other CB spot. Backups Jaylon Jones and Blackwell play well in spot starts. Worth thinking about. If they can get a competent vet FS at a reasonable price, you won't need to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 19 hours ago, Daventry said: One can always find a statistic or opinion to suit their narrative, but consensus is that Williams is special and a generational player . How many more chances will we have to get a player like that? I didn’t really use any stats to “suit my narrative”. I simply shared the same stats for Fields as Adam posted for Williams (while both were playing in college) and found both to have very similar results. In fact if there was a consensus to be made, some would say Fields regressed after coming into the NFL…and probably because of the aforementioned shite situation he faced in Chicago. Be that as it may, I disagree that there is a “consensus” on how special and can’t miss that Williams is. For every Williams supporter there is at least one Merril Hoge who will say he “isn’t special”. So far most of what I’ve seen whether it be former and current players and execs, the so-called “experts” and those of us keyboard GMs (social media etc), it’s been pretty 50/50 on whether Justin will stay or go. If anything I’d say there is a consensus among the Fields’ supporters he stay and a consensus among the Williams supporters he won’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 44 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: I didn’t really use any stats to “suit my narrative”. I simply shared the same stats for Fields as Adam posted for Williams (while both were playing in college) and found both to have very similar results. In fact if there was a consensus to be made, some would say Fields regressed after coming into the NFL…and probably because of the aforementioned shite situation he faced in Chicago. Be that as it may, I disagree that there is a “consensus” on how special and can’t miss that Williams is. For every Williams supporter there is at least one Merril Hoge who will say he “isn’t special”. So far most of what I’ve seen whether it be former and current players and execs, the so-called “experts” and those of us keyboard GMs (social media etc), it’s been pretty 50/50 on whether Justin will stay or go. If anything I’d say there is a consensus among the Fields’ supporters he stay and a consensus among the Williams supporters he won’t. That's fair, both sides view their argument bigger. Truth is it's very divided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 https://youtu.be/O-CSXx1bpvA?si=rgHEG2nxRtAR19Du Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: But if everything goes as planned and a higher percentage of your 1st and 2nd round draftees do well, and your team does well some of those players become trade bait for future 1st - 2nd round picks (ala Patriot-way) and thus “resetting the contract clock” on a bunch of players. IE: Justin himself a former 1st round pick could theoretically net at least one 2nd round pick and some even think 1st round. Exactly. I hate that we haven’t learned as a franchise yet. First Trubisky, now Fields, and yet some still want to go all in on a single guy for the third time. It baffles the mind. Why? So a new guy can come in and fail? The Super Bowl is won by teams. Not individuals. Great teams make superstars. Mahomes goes from good to great because he has a very solid OL, an incredible offensive mind running the show, one of the best TEs in NFL history as a weapon, and a solid WR corp. The Bears need to focus on becoming a team, and right now they have a long way to go offensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, jason said: Exactly. I hate that we haven’t learned as a franchise yet. First Trubisky, now Fields, and yet some still want to go all in on a single guy for the third time. It baffles the mind. Why? So a new guy can come in and fail? The Super Bowl is won by teams. Not individuals. Great teams make superstars. Mahomes goes from good to great because he has a very solid OL, an incredible offensive mind running the show, one of the best TEs in NFL history as a weapon, and a solid WR corp. The Bears need to focus on becoming a team, and right now they have a long way to go offensively. Seen where last year, Fields was second in the league with pressure rate. 2022 he was first. No QB is going play well with constant pressure. I think this year he finally finishes building the OL, gets us one more weapon and a edge. That will be his theme this off-season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said: If Poles doesn't take a QB with a top pick, he will get fired and deserve it. And we will suffer through another decade of awful teams. If Poles picks a QB, Williams to be exact, with the #1, that rookie will flounder with a below average OL, a below average RB, and a poor offensive scheme. DJ will want to leave. Kmet will want to leave. Williams will show himself to be an eccentric prima donna. The rookie QB will then be a bust. And Poles will be fired for following the previous Bears’ flaws of hitching a wagon to yet another horse that’s walking into a minefield. Clear the minefield first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: Seen where last year, Fields was second in the league with pressure rate. 2022 he was first. No QB is going play well with constant pressure. I think this year he finally finishes building the OL, gets us one more weapon and an edge. That will be his theme this off-season. Didn’t know that!! Not surprising. It’s the same thing every Bears QB since Cutler has had to deal with. When will this franchise ever learn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, jason said: Exactly. I hate that we haven’t learned as a franchise yet. First Trubisky, now Fields, and yet some still want to go all in on a single guy for the third time. It baffles the mind. Why? So a new guy can come in and fail? The Super Bowl is won by teams. Not individuals. Great teams make superstars. Mahomes goes from good to great because he has a very solid OL, an incredible offensive mind running the show, one of the best TEs in NFL history as a weapon, and a solid WR corp. The Bears need to focus on becoming a team, and right now they have a long way to go offensively. Trubisky, Fields, franchise history with QBs is about to change. Poles, with the Panthers' pick, hass set us up with a once-in-a-franchise opportunity. He has the first pick in a QB heavy draft, and he has the 9th pick as well. If poles thinks one of the QBs is even a smidge bit better than Fields, its a done deal and he'll take him. THAT is how you change the course of a team that struggles for mediocrity at the position. Tom Waddle said today that great QBs make the surrounding players better, but surrounding a so-so QB with more talent doesn't improve the team. I think Poles has the right plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, ChileBear said: Trubisky, Fields, franchise history with QBs is about to change. Poles, with the Panthers' pick, hass set us up with a once-in-a-franchise opportunity. He has the first pick in a QB heavy draft, and he has the 9th pick as well. If poles thinks one of the QBs is even a smidge bit better than Fields, its a done deal and he'll take him. THAT is how you change the course of a team that struggles for mediocrity at the position. Tom Waddle said today that great QBs make the surrounding players better, but surrounding a so-so QB with more talent doesn't improve the team. I think Poles has the right plan. I love Waddle, but that’s nonsense. We’ve seen countless teams make players look better than when they get to another team, whether that be offensive weapons, offensive scheme, coaching, or other. Look no further than Cutler: well over 4K, traded to Chicago, gets destroyed in year one, never the same again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, jason said: If Poles picks a QB, Williams to be exact, with the #1, that rookie will flounder with a below average OL, a below average RB, and a poor offensive scheme. DJ will want to leave. Kmet will want to leave. Williams will show himself to be an eccentric prima donna. The rookie QB will then be a bust. And Poles will be fired for following the previous Bears’ flaws of hitching a wagon to yet another horse that’s walking into a minefield. Clear the minefield first. Hold it, we've got two young and improving Tackles, cap space for free agents and draft capital. The OL will be better and I'd rather see a new QB with better skills than more of the same with Fields. And if what you say is true, then Fields was a lost cause two years ago, so why keep him longer, based on your arguement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 27 minutes ago, jason said: If Poles picks a QB, Williams to be exact, with the #1, that rookie will flounder with a below average OL, a below average RB, and a poor offensive scheme. DJ will want to leave. Kmet will want to leave. Williams will show himself to be an eccentric prima donna. The rookie QB will then be a bust. And Poles will be fired for following the previous Bears’ flaws of hitching a wagon to yet another horse that’s walking into a minefield. Clear the minefield first. Well I cant argue against the importance of the offensive line, you're right that it's extremely important. It's the only reason Walter isn't still the career rushing yards leader. We put a first round draft pick at OT in Wright, and we are going to address the center position this offseason one way or another for sure. So what's left is Jenkins, Davis and Jones. I think Jenkins and Davis can both be excellent, but Jenkins has injury issues, and Davis was really spotty last year. I figure we are getting an interior OL this offseason too. Between the three of them, hopefully we can field two good ones. It would be really great to spend the #9 pick on LT too. WR and DE are other strong options. I suppose free agency will make that clearer. But all this to say, I think we can take a QB and still boost up the OL this offseason both. I do happen to agree with you about how important the OL is. Im just not sure this is an either or question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, jason said: I love Waddle, but that’s nonsense. We’ve seen countless teams make players look better than when they get to another team, whether that be offensive weapons, offensive scheme, coaching, or other. Look no further than Cutler: well over 4K, traded to Chicago, gets destroyed in year one, never the same again. So we're hopeless, why follow the Bears as your team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, jason said: I love Waddle, but that’s nonsense. We’ve seen countless teams make players look better than when they get to another team, whether that be offensive weapons, offensive scheme, coaching, or other. Look no further than Cutler: well over 4K, traded to Chicago, gets destroyed in year one, never the same again. If we don't see the OL and weapons improve, Williams will more likely have a Bryce Young season than Stroud. We all said the OL is playing better that was more run blocking than pass blocking. The free agent period is very important and will lend to clues in the draft. The defense is almost done, one more DL performer and we're top 5. We need to add a top OC, maybe get lucky and draft Johnson but also a vet that can play both Center and Guard. Add at least a swing T with potential to start and another potential guard starter from the draft. Jenkins has constant injury issues and Davis should be back to normal this year but he will only be here one more year. Depth is also important. Then another weapon early in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 the truth is in the middle, I think. You absolutely need that top QB to really compete, and you need a good team around him too. the Bears have not given their QBs very good opportunities, across the board weve been a pretty bad team for a while. Protection has been a problem for, and ruined the confidence of, more than one QB for us. But which is rarer to find? Every year has good offensive linemen in the draft, but not every year has a true future top 5 QB. If you want a gunslinger to go against Mahomes, many years there just isn't one in the draft at all. The good news is, that even as Poles is not finished with his roster build, there are some pieces in place on this team for a rookie QB to come into, and I predict jason will be happy with changes the Bears will make this offseason to the OL. Im cant predicting youre gonna like whichever players we get, I couldnt possibly know any of that, but I predict youll see several new faces, and a real concerted effort to upgrade the line, even as we take a rookie QB too. It's nice to finally be back to a team where we can see the holes in the roster so clearly now. It used to be everything was shaky, but now there are holes we can identify, and areas that are covered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 As we travel down the road will get to see what holes he plugs in FAgency. Then it will be more obvious what he will do in the draft. If he drafts Williams and Odunze , we will have no second round pick, limits improving the OL and edge. Now if he trades Fields for a second that could get us a DE or center/guard. If he trades down easily fills all our needs and still could get us a QB to develop. It's never just one or the other, both are in play. Very incredibly few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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