The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[adam]

Kerry Joseph hired as QB Coach, he is coaching at the Senior Bowl too. 

[Stinger226]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

Kerry Joseph hired as QB Coach, he is coaching at the Senior Bowl too. 

We don't know how anyone will perform until it happens but this is the best time to be optimistic because they aren't playing games .

[Stinger226]

We need to listen to the experts because their always right.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

We need to listen to the experts because their always right.

Whenever I see Mel Kiper I can’t help but think:   

[BearFan PHX]

When I'm driving to a doctor's appointment, and the cabbie tells me Deshaun Watson is the best QB, but the doctor tells me Trubisky is the best one, I just listen to whatever the doctor says.

And neither one of them got it right.

[Stinger226]

29 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

When I'm driving to a doctor's appointment, and the cabbie tells me Deshaun Watson is the best QB, but the doctor tells me Trubisky is the best one, I just listen to whatever the doctor says.

And neither on of them got it right.

The whole point of an analogy is about percentages, something you like to use, Doctor gets it right on a higher percentage than the cabbie. No one is right all the time. Clearly only KC thought Mahomes was special. Its simply a crap shoot. 

[BearFan PHX]

just use your own eyes. watch the all 22. watch each play three times so you know what the play is supposed ot be and then see how people executed.

It doesnt take a genius, it's actually pretty easy, you just have to do the work. And when you do, you end up with opinions that you know where they came from and that you can believe in. Anyone can do it. It's not like you need to be a football genius to see it  - you just need to actually spend a few hours and do it.

The only problem is that when you think for yourself, you often find yourself out of sync with common media narratives, and then people who only read those things think I'm dumb, or angry, or hate the team or something.

But if you do just a little actual work, you'd be surprised how fast you stop believing the narratives. Doctors can be swayed by narratives too, as we've all recently seen.

And nothing is ever all good or all bad either when you do that. You see the positives and the negatives, and you see when a player isnt getting it done, and on any particular play who's fault it is. It's easy to say that a team has no open receivers or poor pass protection for example, but then when you see it on tape, that breaks the narrative. It can be true sometimes, but not on every play.

This is for judging non rookie players in the league. Projecting college players before the draft is a lot harder to do. You can still see the tape, and what they can't do. But it's hard to know if the things they can do will still be working at the next level, for any QB.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

The only thing I will state is: 

Trubisky / Mahomes / Watson / Field wasn't the same as say Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck.  In some cases - guys were clearly at the top - there was no waver and it lasted for multiple years.  Now I'm not saying either of them panned out as high as one might think - but they were clearly there.

Caleb Williams from a hype perspective - is more like Trevor and Andrew in the sense that they have been talked about by media and NFL people alike for basically 2 seasons. A year ago it was already being talked about to tank for Caleb (even though he was a full year away).  That is very different than the - we have no clear #1 and when you look at film teams are going to argue amongst the field for who is where.

The Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson year was very clearly one of those years - but in fairness - everyone thought that group had immense talent.  They weren't wrong - 2 of the 3 were on probowl trajectories 4 years into their career (Watson's has since crashed and burned). 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

just use your own eyes. watch the all 22. watch each play three times so you know what the play is supposed ot be and then see how people executed.

It doesnt take a genius, it's actually pretty easy, you just have to do the work. And when you do, you end up with opinions that you know where they came from and that you can believe in. Anyone can do it. It's not like you need to be a football genius to see it  - you just need to actually spend a few hours and do it.

The only problem is that when you think for yourself, you often find yourself out of sync with common media narratives, and then people who only read those things think I'm dumb, or angry, or hate the team or something.

But if you do just a little actual work, you'd be surprised how fast you stop believing the narratives. Doctors can be swayed by narratives too, as we've all recently seen.

And nothing is ever all good or all bad either when you do that. You see the positives and the negatives, and you see when a player isnt getting it done, and on any particular play who's fault it is. It's easy to say that a team has no open receivers or poor pass protection for example, but then when you see it on tape, that breaks the narrative. It can be true sometimes, but not on every play.

This is for judging non rookie players in the league. Projecting college players before the draft is a lot harder to do. You can still see the tape, and what they can't do. But it's hard to know if the things they can do will still be working at the next level, for any QB.

What we read, what we see is how we form our own opinions. Expects go all over the place with their opinions. So when you assess a player, you find people that think like you so you expand on their posture. Tape matters of course, can you see a persons character on tape? Can you see a persons work ethic on tape? You rarely see practices and how they get along  with other players. All of that would be NO. 

PFF is all about stats, do they get it right every time. Most on here don't hold high regard for them. As far as games you see breakdowns by players, did the QB make the wrong throw or did the WR run the wrong route? It's such a complex problem diagnosing players.  Some former players opinions go beyond just watching tape, interviews , talking to coaches, other players on the team. They have more insight in their opinions than fans. You can't measure how much they love football on tape. If you see all of those things watching ALL 22 tape, I think you need quit your job and get a scouting job immediately because you've special.

[BearFan PHX]

25 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The only thing I will state is: 

Trubisky / Mahomes / Watson / Field wasn't the same as say Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck.  In some cases - guys were clearly at the top - there was no waver and it lasted for multiple years.  Now I'm not saying either of them panned out as high as one might think - but they were clearly there.

Caleb Williams from a hype perspective - is more like Trevor and Andrew in the sense that they have been talked about by media and NFL people alike for basically 2 seasons. A year ago it was already being talked about to tank for Caleb (even though he was a full year away).  That is very different than the - we have no clear #1 and when you look at film teams are going to argue amongst the field for who is where.

The Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson year was very clearly one of those years - but in fairness - everyone thought that group had immense talent.  They weren't wrong - 2 of the 3 were on probowl trajectories 4 years into their career (Watson's has since crashed and burned). 

No doubt. Picking rookie QBs is a very difficult thing to do.

You can see if theie negatives, and those are real. You wonder if you can straighten them out with coaching, but you can probably predict with pretty good certainty who is going to suck based on how they already suck.

But when you see them do great things on film, you still wonder if it will translate against NFL defenses. No college defense looks like an NFL defense, and ALL rookie QBs HAVE to grow in the league to survive, and predicting future growth at a new higher level is really hard.

I do think you can critique non-rookie NFL QBs though. The film is there, and it's not rocket science.

So I feel very comfortable saying Fields has to go, but I can only hope the Bears do a good job of picking the right rookie to replace him.

Also, like you've said, some years the QBs are in a group, and sometimes you get players who are universally thought to be sure things. Now there is some failure rate among that group, but logically, they will go #1 overall.

We know that #1 pick QBs have an 80% success rate over time, and that includes the years where there is no "sure thing" candidate. So it stands to reason that "sure thing" candidates taken #1 overall have a better than 80% chance to work out.

Unless they find some personality issues that are really worrisome, I'd buy a lottery ticket with a better than 80% chance to pay off.

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

What we read, what we see is how we form our own opinions. Expects go all over the place with their opinions. So when you assess a player, you find people that think like you so you expand on their posture. Tape matters of course, can you see a persons character on tape? Can you see a persons work ethic on tape? You rarely see practices and how they get along  with other players. All of that would be NO. 

PFF is all about stats, do they get it right every time. Most on here don't hold high regard for them. As far as games you see breakdowns by players, did the QB make the wrong throw or did the WR run the wrong route? It's such a complex problem diagnosing players.  Some former players opinions go beyond just watching tape, interviews , talking to coaches, other players on the team. They have more insight in their opinions than fans. You can't measure how much they love football on tape. If you see all of those things watching ALL 22 tape, I think you need quit your job and get a scouting job immediately because you've special.

do the pundits see character issues either? That's the problem.

and the way you explained how you watch the pundits that agree with you more is exactly how someone gets trapped in a narrative.

[Stinger226]

20 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

do the pundits see character issues either? That's the problem.

and the way you explained how you watch the pundits that agree with you more is exactly how someone gets trapped in a narrative.

So you're saying listen to no one , if you were lucky to pick one that was right , then you  can claim to be smart. For example, I watch all of Greg Gabriel s podcasts. He was in the NFL for 20 some years. He has a large network that is still in the league, in college football. He's talks to people that are in on mettings, train players, coach players. He has more insight than a general fan does is he trapping me when he says Williams is a great passer but he has a few issues that need to be addressed to be selected number 1. He didn't mention the issues but said it will come out in the draft process. We will see as it develops. I trust him over your opinion.

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

So you're saying listen to no one , if you were lucky to pick one that was right , then you  can claim to be smart. For example, I watch all of Greg Gabriel s podcasts. He was in the NFL for 20 some years. He has a large network that is still in the league, in college football. He's talks to people that are in on mettings, train players, coach players. He has more insight than a general fan does is he trapping me when he says Williams is a great passer but he has a few issues that need to be addressed to be selected number 1. He didn't mention the issues but said it will come out in the draft process. We will see as it develops. I trust him over your opinion.

Im not asking you to trust my opinion. We share very little in our points of view. If this is your process, and it results in the conclusions you regularly come to, then i dont trust it either.

If you dont want to do your own work and just constantly say that some pundit say XY and Z, then Id say you are a consumer of narratives, and i dont trust that opinion.

If you watch the actual film, you might find that you have your own thoughts, and maybe we'd even agree.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

50 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

We know that #1 pick QBs have an 80% success rate over time, and that includes the years where there is no "sure thing" candidate. So it stands to reason that "sure thing" candidates taken #1 overall have a better than 80% chance to work out.

Something about this seems off.  I know Adam presented this or something similar not all that long ago and it included information to support ‘all QBs picked 1st overall in the last 30 years were 70% successful (to include at least one 4,000 yard season, one PB appearance AND at least one playoff win)’.  Thats not a direct quote but close. So I’m curious where the ‘80% success rate’ figures in. And was there data that supported this somewhere?  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Something about this seems off.  I know Adam presented this or something similar not all that long ago and it included information to support ‘all QBs picked 1st overall in the last 30 years were 70% successful (to include at least one 4,000 yard season, one PB appearance AND at least one playoff win)’.  Thats not a direct quote but close. So I’m curious where the ‘80% success rate’ figures in. And was there data that supported this somewhere?  

there were two studies, both long term studies, adam's 20 year study, and the 30 year one from Harvard that ended in 2011 or something. So they covered two different time periods, but they overlapped.

I had thought that adam's number was 80% too or close to it, if Im mis-remembering, then fair enough and I stand corrected. I'm pretty sure the Harvard study was at 80%? (EDIT, it says only 20% bust, not all 80% will be elite)

I just googled and found this third study, and it claims 83% of #1 pick QBs are successful

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

of course the thresholds for successful, elite, franchise etc are arbitrary, and people could adjust them to increase or decrease the numbers, but a few facts remain no matter how you crunch the numbers:

Fact 1) #1 overall pick QBs are more likely to meet any given thresholds of greatness than picks #2 thru #10. There is no pick range, including #2 thru #5 that perform as well as #1 pick QBs.

Fact 2) whether it be 70% or 83% or somewhere in between, it is better than 2 to 1 that a #1 pick QB will be successful, elite whatever

Fact 3) Some years have QBs that are touted as generational and some don't, and yet all those years figure into the 70% or 83% figures above, so it stands to reason that #1 pick QBs thought of as generational before the draft will have an even higher chance of being elite, successful etc.

(I numbered them so if you disagree, you can tell me which link in the chain we're talking about)

So that says to me that Caleb Williams, barring some bad info that isnt currently known to the people who call him generational, has a better chance at being elite or successful than the average #1 pick QB.

It's probably somewhere like a 90%+ chance to be great.

And a 90%+ lottery ticket on winning a great franchise elite (etc) QB is worth more than 5 good players you can get trading out of #1.

[BearFan PHX]

and here's another study / chart - this one really shows the difference of a #1 pick overall, and again remember my point is not every year has a great QB who is expected to be generational, so it stands to reason that the numbers will be even higher when that #1 pick is expected to be generational.

And to be clear, even if it's 90%, that still means 1 in 10 is a miss, so nothing is assured. But still the numbers are hard to deny.

https://twitter.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397144204472367/photo/1

[Stinger226]

Here's a scouts take in Justin Fields

 

[ChileBear]

38 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Here's a scouts take in Justin Fields

 

God, I hate indecision. Keep him, trade him, I guess, with our draft situation, there's really only win-win in any decision, unless. . . . You all know. LOL Gonna be fun/unnerving to wait till April to find out.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I just googled and found this third study, and it claims 83% of #1 pick QBs are successful

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

I’ll have to take a deeper look at this sometime later.  First read is sorta conflicting. On the one hand the author shows a graph where the more isolated the pick (1st round picks vs 1st round overall picks) trend to the positive for the 1st overall choices.   But then he writes supporting commentary that’s less than complementary.  Even starting off the paragraph with “So those success rates are pretty atrocious”.  🤷🏻‍♂️Je n’comprende pas.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’ll have to take a deeper look at this sometime later.  First read is sorta conflicting. On the one hand the author shows a graph where the more isolated the pick (1st round picks vs 1st round overall picks) trend to the positive for the 1st overall choices.   But then he writes supporting commentary that’s less than complementary.  Even starting off the paragraph with “So those success rates are pretty atrocious”.  🤷🏻‍♂️Je n’comprende pas.  

I didnt even read the article, I just found the link as I was researching various studies on first round QBs. I just saw the number and thats all I saw.

The link I pasted on the next reply from twitter, that chart is very eye opening to me.

And also, way to class up the place with French

[BearFan PHX]

that scout worked for the Jets, and wrote a book about a fan making it into the NFL. We dont know how high ranking a scout he was, just some guy. And his own judgement is that Justin is inconsistent. He says he barely leans to keeping Justin. Barely is his word.

But I think the best way to put what he said into perspective was this comment someone in the thread made:

"Your first positive is Justin running. Bad for a QB. Your 2nd positive is "Downfield minded" but only had 4 plays of 40+yards. 3rd "positive" is he's inconsistent in 11-19 yards throws. And you want to keep him? Those aren't positives."

and he later clarified that he didnt mean running is bad for QBs, but for it to be the FIRST positive is a bad sign.

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Im not asking you to trust my opinion. We share very little in our points of view. If this is your process, and it results in the conclusions you regularly come to, then i dont trust it either.

If you dont want to do your own work and just constantly say that some pundit say XY and Z, then Id say you are a consumer of narratives, and i dont trust that opinion.

If you watch the actual film, you might find that you have your own thoughts, and maybe we'd even agree.

I have seen 5 full games of Williams and. 3 of Drake Maye. How many did you watch?  I'm retired I have lots time to vent everything. You assume because I watch 10 QB analysis videos, that   I don't watch tape myself .   I have NFL+, i can watch replay of  all games ,   You always assume things and keep getting it wrong. 

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I have seen 5 full games of Williams and. 3 of Drake Maye. How many did you watch?  I'm retired I have lots time to vent everything. You assume because I watch 10 QB analysis videos, that   I don't watch tape myself .   I have NFL+, i can watch replay of  all games ,   You always assume things and keep getting it wrong. 

You keep saying you get your opinions from other people, I am encouraging you to have your own opinions.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

You keep saying you get your opinions from other people, I am encouraging you to have your own opinions.Seriously? 

Seriously? You form an opinion by absorbing information from outside sources. Things you read, thinks you watch. If you form your opinion by only looking at tape or reading a stat line, I'm totally done reading your posts.

[adam]

Just a friendly reminder to keep it civil and if you don't agree, that's fine, but stick to the topic. No one is right or wrong in the way they think or in their opinion. They can form that opinion however they want. It's all good. 

We all want the same thing, and there is no one right answer or path to get there. This is arguably the best and most impactful offseason in franchise history, let's enjoy it, agree to disagree, and just Bear Down. 50% of the time, I am right 100% of the time!