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Which Rookie QB should we draft to replace Fields?


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Trade the house. Stockpile picks. Build the OL. Add a WR.

And then draft Nix.

He’s got an above average ability in every passing category. Great arm and pocket presence, excellent at reading the defense, has a pedigree, pretty mobile, short delivery, and great footwork.

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6 hours ago, adam said:

The only issue is he has done it every year, not just one, and it's also not like it is 3.0X: 3.16 in 2023, 3.24 in 2022 (Heisman year), and holy crap 3.51 in 2021 (OK). So it's not like he had one year where it jumps out. As far as I can tell, Williams is the only QB that I could find with 3+ years with a TTT above 3.0. 

Mahomes: 2.77, 2.85
Fields: 3.11, 3.18
 

Last QBs above 3.0 for 2 or more seasons:

Tune, Willis, Pickett, Fields, Hurts, Ehlinger, and Jackson


Only Ehlinger and Williams had 3 seasons above 3.0 since the stat was recorded.

Williams is the only QB to ever throw for 4K yards while having a TTT over 3.2. So he either is a unicorn, or things are going to come crashing down for him in the NFL when you have less than 2.5 to actually throw the ball.

 

That’s basically what I see when watching the Williams highlights. Everyone raves on the results but ignores the fact that he has time to tie his shoes every other play. Easy to look great under those conditions, which has basically been my stance for the past 30yrs as a Bears fan. Give a QB more time and any of them that make the NFL are good enough to put up good to great stats.

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31 minutes ago, jason said:

Trade the house. Stockpile picks. Build the OL. Add a WR.

And then draft Nix.

He’s got an above average ability in every passing category. Great arm and pocket presence, excellent at reading the defense, has a pedigree, pretty mobile, short delivery, and great footwork.

I forgot about him.  He's an intriguing prospect.  I'm still good with the trade down scenario and grabbing an insurance policy at QB.  

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3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Why are there so many restrictions?  Why couldn't Daniels be there at 9, his film isn't all that good?  Penix is likely to be around into the 20s in this draft, he has a lot of limitations to his game plus a bad injury history.  He might even go like Levis did early in the 2nd Rd.  Who's to say some team doesn't prefer Maye for their system vs. Williams and take Maye #1?   Teams do crazy stuff like trade up for Trey Lance.

youre right on all accounts. The (restrictive) rules were just to get a discussion going. For all we know Daniels will slide to 9, but if you NEED him at QB, you probably wouldnt want to chance it?

Anyway, there are lots of scenarios outside of the ones I listed, I just wanted to focus the discussion for a couple reasons - one is to separate this discussion from the keep Fields or not discussion, and two was to see how people value the rookie QBs?

I also agree that it is not certain that Williams will go #1. And anyone who says theyd take Maye at #2, my next question is whether they would take him at #1 if there were no trade partners, so youre right about all of that. This wasnt meant to say these are the only options, but just to focus the discussion on a certain slice of those options.

For all I know, we will keep Fields, but now Im breaking my own rule LOL

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1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

If Fields was putting up Allen numbers and putting his team in the back and carrying them to wins, I could give two rips about not making on time this and that. But watch Allen - he has some warts but they are like on his toes and everywhere else he’s beautiful as a qb. Dude makes plays all over the field and throws guys open when he is. 
 

But I will say - I think on the field, Caleb is a one in 5 to 7 year qb prospect. As a leader - no idea. I don’t think his issue is Jalen Carter / George Pickens but as a qb he may have a my shit don’t stink attitude that rubs people hard. Kind of like Rodgers later in his career. 

Williams is the only one carrying the ( generational) tag, so when you talk about other draftees it's a little bit of a different conversation. Maye is the only other QB that all these great experts say could start right away in the league. That means everyone else will need a bridge QB to get to a point that they could start. So if Poles drafts one of them you may well have our starting QB still here. 

I seen 3 games of Maye and he has all the measurables but didn't look great in those games. So I would say he will not start early as a rookie. Depending on where he goes, he may not get to the field in his first year. 

I think in Poles mind , if Williams survives the deep dive, he's the only day one starter. So it's Williams or bust. 

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2 hours ago, jason said:

Trade the house. Stockpile picks. Build the OL. Add a WR.

And then draft Nix.

He’s got an above average ability in every passing category. Great arm and pocket presence, excellent at reading the defense, has a pedigree, pretty mobile, short delivery, and great footwork.

Forgot to add we should draft his receiver Franklin too.  

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5 hours ago, jason said:

Trade the house. Stockpile picks. Build the OL. Add a WR.

And then draft Nix.

He’s got an above average ability in every passing category. Great arm and pocket presence, excellent at reading the defense, has a pedigree, pretty mobile, short delivery, and great footwork.

Word.  😎👍

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On 1/20/2024 at 11:41 AM, jason said:

Trade the house. Stockpile picks. Build the OL. Add a WR.

And then draft Nix.

He’s got an above average ability in every passing category. Great arm and pocket presence, excellent at reading the defense, has a pedigree, pretty mobile, short delivery, and great footwork.

I’m glad you brought up Nix because I don’t watch hardly any College football and was wondering about him. Bo Nix’s stats are incredible but read a few draft reports stating he doesn’t have a good arm?  He also seems to be very mobile.

He seems like a perfect prospect to grab this year to push Fields to become great or next QB we BEARS Fans used to know!

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This is an unlikely scenario but I’m an out of the box thinker!

We know that teams are getting more and more impatient every year.  Oakland fired Hurricane Josh McDaniels less than 2 years in but they should have never hired him in the first place as he was a disaster in Denver; then jilted the Colts.  I never understood why Aaron Rodgers chose to go to the AFC which is an absolute Gauntlet to make it to the SB having to go through all those talented teams with stud QBs Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Burrow et ol!

With this stated premise could a team like the LA Charges decide to do a reset now knowing that they are pretty far behind KC, Buffalo, Cincy, Baltimore etc that they would consider trading Justin Herbert to the Bears for the number 1 pick in this years Draft?  The Rams and Lions kinda of did this a few years ago and it seemed to be a win win for both organizations. Rams won the superbowl two years ago and the Lions are advancing to the NFC championship game this year.

If I’m Ryan Poles I’m leaving no stone unturned.  Imagine pulling off a trade like this then flipping Fields to a team like Pittsburgh or Atlanta?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We all look at highlights films and think we can tell what a great QB looks like but GMs do interviews, review in-depth reports we never get privy to. It's take .more than a great arm to lead a team . If Poles think one of them can be a tier 1 QB , he will draft him, be ready if he doesn't because its possible, none of them are and he's not JUST drafting anyone. He said he had to be blown away.

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7 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

This is an unlikely scenario but I’m an out of the box thinker!

We know that teams are getting more and more impatient every year.  Oakland fired Hurricane Josh McDaniels less than 2 years in but they should have never hired him in the first place as he was a disaster in Denver; then jilted the Colts.  I never understood why Aaron Rodgers chose to go to the AFC which is an absolute Gauntlet to make it to the SB having to go through all those talented teams with stud QBs Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Burrow et ol!

With this stated premise could a team like the LA Charges decide to do a reset now knowing that they are pretty far behind KC, Buffalo, Cincy, Baltimore etc that they would consider trading Justin Herbert to the Bears for the number 1 pick in this years Draft?  The Rams and Lions kinda of did this a few years ago and it seemed to be a win win for both organizations. Rams won the superbowl two years ago and the Lions are advancing to the NFC championship game this year.

If I’m Ryan Poles I’m leaving no stone unturned.  Imagine pulling off a trade like this then flipping Fields to a team like Pittsburgh or Atlanta?

Parker, I have seen this scenario discussed on the socials. I would say the thought of it has legs, but in reality, it would be impossible from a cap perspective. A Herbert trade would cost the Chargers $108M on this year's cap when they are already $46M OVER the cap right now. So that move would make them $136M over the cap lol. They would have to cut and trade about 8 starters and only sign vet minimum guys for 3/4 of their roster. The rookie QB would end up like David Carr and have CTE by Week 3.  

The only QBs that might work in that type of scenario would be someone with a contract thru 25 or 26: Tua, Lawrence, Prescott, Geno, Purdy, or Jimmy G. Would you trade the #1 for any of those guys? I don't think so. However, do you want another crazy one? Trade Fields for Geno, trade down from #1, add a future 1st or two, and draft a top flight WR. 

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7 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

This is an unlikely scenario but I’m an out of the box thinker!

We know that teams are getting more and more impatient every year.  Oakland fired Hurricane Josh McDaniels less than 2 years in but they should have never hired him in the first place as he was a disaster in Denver; then jilted the Colts.  I never understood why Aaron Rodgers chose to go to the AFC which is an absolute Gauntlet to make it to the SB having to go through all those talented teams with stud QBs Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Burrow et ol!

With this stated premise could a team like the LA Charges decide to do a reset now knowing that they are pretty far behind KC, Buffalo, Cincy, Baltimore etc that they would consider trading Justin Herbert to the Bears for the number 1 pick in this years Draft?  The Rams and Lions kinda of did this a few years ago and it seemed to be a win win for both organizations. Rams won the superbowl two years ago and the Lions are advancing to the NFC championship game this year.

If I’m Ryan Poles I’m leaving no stone unturned.  Imagine pulling off a trade like this then flipping Fields to a team like Pittsburgh or Atlanta?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's always fun to look at getting a particular player but as Adam presented it, if finances doesn't work out it, it's just fantasy.

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10 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

I’m glad you brought up Nix because I don’t watch hardly any College football and was wondering about him. Bo Nix’s stats are incredible but read a few draft reports stating he doesn’t have a good arm?  He also seems to be very mobile.

He seems like a perfect prospect to grab this year to push Fields to become great or next QB we BEARS Fans used to know!

Those reports are BS. His arm is very strong.

I personally witnessed him throw a 60ish yd bomb in HS - from about the 10 to past opposite 40 - as I ran as fast as I could to keep up with the eventual 90yd TD.

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10 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

This is an unlikely scenario but I’m an out of the box thinker!

We know that teams are getting more and more impatient every year.  Oakland fired Hurricane Josh McDaniels less than 2 years in but they should have never hired him in the first place as he was a disaster in Denver; then jilted the Colts.  I never understood why Aaron Rodgers chose to go to the AFC which is an absolute Gauntlet to make it to the SB having to go through all those talented teams with stud QBs Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Burrow et ol!

With this stated premise could a team like the LA Charges decide to do a reset now knowing that they are pretty far behind KC, Buffalo, Cincy, Baltimore etc that they would consider trading Justin Herbert to the Bears for the number 1 pick in this years Draft?  The Rams and Lions kinda of did this a few years ago and it seemed to be a win win for both organizations. Rams won the superbowl two years ago and the Lions are advancing to the NFC championship game this year.

If I’m Ryan Poles I’m leaving no stone unturned.  Imagine pulling off a trade like this then flipping Fields to a team like Pittsburgh or Atlanta?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m glad others have made that impossible from a cap perspective, because I would hate it for two reasons.

1. It would put Herbert in a less than envious position with multiple glaring holes on offense, same as Fields.

2. It would neuter trade potential for Fields.

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18 minutes ago, jason said:

I’m glad others have made that impossible from a cap perspective, because I would hate it for two reasons.

1. It would put Herbert in a less than envious position with multiple glaring holes on offense, same as Fields.

2. It would neuter trade potential for Fields.

Not only is not possible for them.  It's dumb as hell for us.  Revisionist history tells us trading away picks is not beneficial.  We would have to trade them three number ones for Herbert, not just THE number one.  Then yes, you are on it.  How do you protect the new guy?  We already ruined every QB we've had the last thirty years by NOT providing them the protection to do their damn job!  Why would we trade for another guy, just to ruin him by trading away capitol?

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32 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Not only is not possible for them.  It's dumb as hell for us.  Revisionist history tells us trading away picks is not beneficial.  We would have to trade them three number ones for Herbert, not just THE number one.  Then yes, you are on it.  How do you protect the new guy?  We already ruined every QB we've had the last thirty years by NOT providing them the protection to do their damn job!  Why would we trade for another guy, just to ruin him by trading away capitol?

Plus Poles is building thru the draft , not trading boat load of picks for anyone. His trades he has made are one pick for one player.

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1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Not only is not possible for them.  It's dumb as hell for us.  Revisionist history tells us trading away picks is not beneficial.  We would have to trade them three number ones for Herbert, not just THE number one.  Then yes, you are on it.  How do you protect the new guy?  We already ruined every QB we've had the last thirty years by NOT providing them the protection to do their damn job!  Why would we trade for another guy, just to ruin him by trading away capitol?

❤️❤️❤️

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17 hours ago, adam said:

Parker, I have seen this scenario discussed on the socials. I would say the thought of it has legs, but in reality, it would be impossible from a cap perspective. A Herbert trade would cost the Chargers $108M on this year's cap when they are already $46M OVER the cap right now. So that move would make them $136M over the cap lol. They would have to cut and trade about 8 starters and only sign vet minimum guys for 3/4 of their roster. The rookie QB would end up like David Carr and have CTE by Week 3.  

The only QBs that might work in that type of scenario would be someone with a contract thru 25 or 26: Tua, Lawrence, Prescott, Geno, Purdy, or Jimmy G. Would you trade the #1 for any of those guys? I don't think so. However, do you want another crazy one? Trade Fields for Geno, trade down from #1, add a future 1st or two, and draft a top flight WR. 

Thanks Adam, I didn’t even consider the Salary Cap in that scenari.  I guess trades are more complicated then doing them on Madden ‘94 😆 

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12 hours ago, jason said:

❤️❤️❤️

I don’t disagree and you’re absolutely right.  Remember when Muhsin Mohammed said about the Bears’ “ it’s where receivers go to die.” Well he was wrong; it’s literally where QB’s go to die!

Like I said to Adam’s reply; I didn’t even consider the salary cap when thinking about that scenario.  

When Jerry Angelo traded for Cutler; they never addressed the OL and eventually got him BMarsh which didn’t matter as Jay was running for his life when he wasn’t being sacked. 

This organization is also responsible for Rex Grossman becoming bad Rex”

When Rex began with the Bears he seemed decisive, accurate and was pretty solid.  Then as the sacks started piling up he was mentally and physically done.  I bet he still has nightmares after being retired for so long.

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

Thanks Adam, I didn’t even consider the Salary Cap in that scenari.  I guess trades are more complicated then doing them on Madden ‘94 😆 

I am sure there are ways around it but from the LAC perspective, it would be tough to do unless they were purposely tanking in 2024.

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