Week 8 Official Game Thread - CHI @ BAL, Oct 26th, 12PM CDT, CBS, CHI +6.5

[adam]

Looks like the Bears will come in at 6.5 underdogs to the 1-5 Ravens.  The LBs and Gordon are going to have to spy Jackson and stop Henry. 

This will be a tough one, but Baltimore's defense has been bad and that won't change much out of their bye.

If the refs call this game fair (unlikely), I could see the Bears winning this in a close game. However, the refs have shown they don't call games fairly, so I am thinking this will be close loss, both teams in the mid-20s.

[BearFan PHX]

30 minutes ago, adam said:

Looks like the Bears will come in at 6.5 underdogs to the 1-5 Ravens.  The LBs and Gordon are going to have to spy Jackson and stop Henry. 

This will be a tough one, but Baltimore's defense has been bad and that won't change much out of their bye.

If the refs call this game fair (unlikely), I could see the Bears winning this in a close game. However, the refs have shown they don't call games fairly, so I am thinking this will be close loss, both teams in the mid-20s.

I think we have the speed at LB to (mostly) contain Jackson.

We win or lose these games coming up purely on our own. It all depends on how consistent we can be that week. We are in all these games, even to win convincingly, but we can flame out too if we dont play with more discipline. Luckily, that seems to be coming in big supply each week from the coaches. This week were were good on the ground and on defense, and controlled the game the whole way. Next week, lets hope its Calebs turn. In time, all phases will show up together on a regular basis, and thats the contender we are looking for.

[Mongo3451]

I've been looking at the roughing the passer rules, because I truly don't understand how that penalty was called on Brisker.  He hit the  QB's arm while the ball was being thrown and the follow through brushed the QB's head.  Isn't there a provision in there where you are making a play on the ball?  Kinda like blocking a punt and blowing up the punter in the process...

Jason, can you elaborate?

[adam]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I've been looking at the roughing the passer rules, because I truly don't understand how that penalty was called on Brisker.  He hit the  QB's arm while the ball was being thrown and the follow through brushed the QB's head.  Isn't there a provision in there where you are making a play on the ball?  Kinda like blocking a punt and blowing up the punter in the process...

Jason, can you elaborate?

I think any time you hit the QB in the head they will call it, even though I thought that one was weak. Check out the play where Caleb avoids the sack and gets the pass to Swift. The DT takes an extra step after the ball came out to then land all his body weight on the QB. That is always a penalty. No call.

Loveland's OPI call (now in back to back weeks). Saints RT false start on first TD, would've basically forced a FG.

[BearFan PHX]

The OPI penalty today on Loveland was crazy. He was standing there in ready to catch position for quite a while before the defender ran into him. In basketball that would be a charge on the defensive back. Crazy.

Im not a conspiracy theorist, so Ill just say i hope the bad calls get evened out over time with calls to our advantage. But i can see why some people might think it was on purpose, because they really are awful calls.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I would be shocked if the Bears are within 2 touchdowns of BAL. Going to have to get better quarterback play to beat a team desperate for a win with their MVP quarterback coming back to play. This is a mega important game for Caleb to get back on track, because things have been trending in a negative direction for him for 3 weeks now.

This is supposed to be the soft part of the Bears schedule with all these bad defenses. If he can't put up numbers now, I think we're going to start having some harsher conversations about him in the not so distant future.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I would be shocked if the Bears are within 2 touchdowns of BAL. Going to have to get better quarterback play to beat a team desperate for a win with their MVP quarterback coming back to play. This is a mega important game for Caleb to get back on track, because things have been trending in a negative direction for him for 3 weeks now.

This is supposed to be the soft part of the Bears schedule with all these bad defenses. If he can't put up numbers now, I think we're going to start having some harsher conversations about him in the not so distant future.

I disagree, I think if we get less penalties and Caleb improves his % to his average 62% we will stay close. After two losses, people were saying we have no identity and that was true. Now after the bye week we found it. Run the ball and play the run defense better. The TOs are huge and as much as we struggle to get sacks we are putting enough pressure to force some of those TOs. I think most games are going to go down to the wire because whether we great play from the QB or not, we are reliant on the run game to set the tempo. The play action is the key to improve the QB play. 

Caleb is still making bad choices, he is honing in on one target and missing other open players. When he holds the ball he is great at avoiding the sack but needs to get in position to see the dump off target. Several times he could have run and moved to buy time to throw down field. When he holds the ball to long, it allows the coverage to catch up to his target. I remember one throw to DJ over the middle, the announcers said DJ took to long to look at the ball. The ball was 3 ft behind him. Had Caleb led the WR, the ball would have been where the WR eyes were fixed. 

I find it interesting that our hope for the future is a high end QB, yet in Doug Buffone speak, run the ball and stop the run is what has got us to 4 wins. 

[adam]

12 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I would be shocked if the Bears are within 2 touchdowns of BAL. Going to have to get better quarterback play to beat a team desperate for a win with their MVP quarterback coming back to play. This is a mega important game for Caleb to get back on track, because things have been trending in a negative direction for him for 3 weeks now.

This is supposed to be the soft part of the Bears schedule with all these bad defenses. If he can't put up numbers now, I think we're going to start having some harsher conversations about him in the not so distant future.

I think it will be close, maybe a team scores late to make it look worse, but I think the game will be back and forth all game within a score.

The Ravens haven't scored much with Jackson out, but that doesn't discount the fact that their defense has allowed 37, 38, 41, and 44 pts in 4 of their 5 losses.

I think the Bears will be in the mid-20s again, maybe hit 30, while the Ravens will be in that same range. Either team can win 31-21 and I would not be surprised.

 

Would it have made a difference if the Bears scored on the last drive instead of running the clock out to make it 33-14?

[adam]

As much as the passing game and Caleb need to improve, they have scored 21 or more in every game. I think there was so much emphasis put on the run game over the bye that it may have impacted the passing game a little bit. Again, no excuses, Caleb has to be more accurate. Odunze needs to catch the ball, and the Bears need to get some calls go there way or at least not have bogus calls against them.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The TOs are huge and as much as we struggle to get sacks we are putting enough pressure to force some of those TOs.

We're going to see a lot of difference in QB play between Rattler and a returning Jackson...after a bye.  Add in they are 1-5 and they're looking for a strong and convincing bounce back game.

Right now the Bears rank 26th total defense and 31st in Rushing defense - a strong concern when you have players like Jackson and Henry on the slate.  The Ravens offense (without Jackson) is ranked 29th in Passing and 23rd in total offense.  They are 10th when measuring their rushing production.  

Sure the Bears leading the NFL in takeaways is great but the offense needs to be able to do something with it when given the chance.  

Conversely (and as Adam pointed out) the Ravens defense ranks 29th in total defense, 28th in pass defense and 26th in rush defense.  There is the chance the Bears can go go back and forth with them throughout the game but they'd have to start scoring from the minute they step out of the tunnel to do it...Or so I think. 

[adam]

Lamar has not practiced yet, so this is something to watch. If he is out, this becomes much easier.

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

If you're looking for reasons for optimism, I think this run game could be legit. If I'm not mistaken, wasn't there some analytic after the first few games that showed Swift was 31st in EPA/rush or maybe it was just YPC, but the Bears OL ranked in the top 2-3 in yards before contact? If I have that correct, that means the run blocking has been good all year, it just took Swift a few games to figure out his timing in order to get in sync with the blocks.

There's an old saying that a good run game travels, and I agree. The Bears were 31st in the NFL in rushing before the bye, and now they're 7th. If that trend continues, along with their newfound ability to (maybe?) stop the run on defense, that's going to keep them in a lot of games. They just need to get more consistent play from the quarterback.

[adam]

39 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

If you're looking for reasons for optimism, I think this run game could be legit. If I'm not mistaken, wasn't there some analytic after the first few games that showed Swift was 31st in EPA/rush or maybe it was just YPC, but the Bears OL ranked in the top 2-3 in yards before contact? If I have that correct, that means the run blocking has been good all year, it just took Swift a few games to figure out his timing in order to get in sync with the blocks.

There's an old saying that a good run game travels, and I agree. The Bears were 31st in the NFL in rushing before the bye, and now they're 7th. If that trend continues, along with their newfound ability to (maybe?) stop the run on defense, that's going to keep them in a lot of games. They just need to get more consistent play from the quarterback.

I know it is asking a lot, but I want to see it for at least one more game. Why? Because Swift never had 3 great games in a row. It is really baffling. Here are his games before and after 100 yard rushing games in his career:

2020 - 22, 116, 27
2021 - 27, 130, 136, 0
2022 - 144*, 56  *-Week 1
2023 - 3, 175, 130, 56
2024 - 91, 129, 51
2025 - 38, 108, 124, ?

His highest total in any of the 3 games that follows a 100-yd game is 71. 

The most likely yardage for him following a 2nd 100-yd game is 53.

He has never had 3 straight games with 75+ rushing yards in his career.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I know it is asking a lot, but I want to see it for at least one more game. Why? Because Swift never had 3 great games in a row. It is really baffling. Here are his games before and after 100 yard rushing games in his career:

2020 - 22, 116, 27
2021 - 27, 130, 136, 0
2022 - 144*, 56  *-Week 1
2023 - 3, 175, 130, 56
2024 - 91, 129, 51
2025 - 38, 108, 124, ?

His highest total in any of the 3 games that follows a 100-yd game is 71. 

The most likely yardage for him following a 2nd 100-yd game is 53.

He has never had 3 straight games with 75+ rushing yards in his career.

He hasnt all of a sudden turned into Barkley or Robinson. He is an above average NFL back that has a OL that is jelling. BJ and Beiniemy has lit a fire under him and he is productive. With the threat of a good passing game, the other teams arent loading the box to stop the run. Now if Monangai takes off, we have the two back game DJ is looking for. Caleb gets his act together and we have the offense BJ wants to see. We are scoring over 21 points in every game. I cant wait to see where that goes once the offense goes into cruise mode. 

Every game takes on its own script. Balt is dangerous because they are 1-5, had the bye week and getting some injured players back. I expect it to be a close game and we have a chance to win, but this is a must win for the Ravens . That may be the edge they need. IF we stay physical and can run the ball, we will stay in every game from here out. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Why? Because Swift never had 3 great games in a row.

Well if Baltimore is as putrid as you think they are then it should go to reason.  Unless somehow Monangai supplants him and does better with his opportunities.

The only things I see changing the running game from its current domination are Caleb doing better at passing (overall) and the involving of Kmet and Loveland more than they have so far.