BearFan PHX

theres one more scenario, which is if we have the #1 pick, Williams is balling out and Fields takes us to one or two playoff wins. not saying thats gonna happen! but if it does, that changes everything too.

OK, that is just plain awesome.

Given that weve outsourced our tankathon to Carolina, it is easy to root for Justin to do well. We will know a lot more on Monday.

Yeah I have no crystal ball - Im trying to lay out all the scenarios, not even to pick which one is best. That's someone elses job at this point. But thats the next question - who will our coaches be next year? Their thoughts go into this strongly.

You're not wrong. But there are a bunch of scenarios even if JF balls out. I dont think it can just be a statistical threshold. First off, the only way you really even have this decision is if you have that #1 pick. If Carolina's pick is #3, this is a whole different question. Williams is gone. Then you almost have to sign Fields. There is also a scenario where we trade both our first rounders to get the #1 for Williams, but without having the #1 to start off, it's probably Fields if he has played well for the rest of this season. And Poles has to know this could happen to our picks, so Poles definitely has a map for the future that he's ready to put in place with a Fields extension. And he's spent hours planning that particular path too, and with high picks to spend on non QBs, it's got to be a good lookin path with a bunch of high picks, possibly from a trade down. We've seen the mock drafts here. They look Madden-like, but they are possible. On the flip side, a lot of it depends on who you think Williams is. If you're 100% certain that he is a future hall of famer and multiple super bowl winner, you have to think about grabbing him whatever the price. That could mean trading both our first round picks, no matter how well Justin has played. So these two scenarios, (not having #1, believing Williams is a god) both hugely affect the decision regardless of how well Justin has played. That's why it's tough to put a threshold on Fields that would force you to keep him. In terms of numbers anyway. If Fields takes this team to 2 playoff wins this year, then everything I just said doesnt matter of course. But in terms of passing yards and all that, it might not even matter that much to whether he is our QB next year. Hat tip to rookie contract windows etc too. However, one really interesting thing, is that if we do take Williams at #1, and even have to trade two first round picks to do it, if Justin HAS played decently or well this year, then his trade value would be huge too. And then you get those picks back anyway. For example you could trade a GOOD Justin Fields for two first rounders, and then package two of the FOUR we'd have to go up to #1 and get Williams and then STILL have two MORE first round picks. If Carolina's has the number one pick, we could draft Williams, trade Fields for two firsts and have THREE more first rounders after taking Williams. And of course you can trade those down to get more picks, or afford to package two to get a Marvin Harrison Jr at #3 and have Williams, MHJr and another first rounder too. Ironically, these dream scenarios are predicated on Fields playing really well the rest of this year. So if he exceeds the thresholds we've outlined above, that might even hasten his departure from Chicago in a trade! But in all cases, that no matter what anyone thinks we should do about Justin, we should be rooting for him to win games and get better. We outsourced our tankathon to Carolina! If Fields is bad, then this is all much easier, but we end up with less value. If we keep Fields then both top picks go to other players. If we trade him, or cut him, then we can get a rookie QB. Poles has us set up pretty well for whatever happens. A real question that parallels this is do we keep Eberflus? Do we keep Getsy? Does keeping them make Williams not want to play for us? If we get new guys, which QB do THEY want to work with? It's a multifaceted problem, but no matter how you split it up, keep him or trade him, the total draft + player value is the same. The better Fields plays, the more that is. And we are in a VERY good situation right now thanks to Poles. Especially if Justin plays well.

I love to see the development of our offensive line. We are flirting with having the best line we've had in many many years. At the same time, with the task of evaluating Fields, it will be good to see him handle blitzes too. Not just being tough and standing in there, but making adjustments with receivers on the fly and punishing the Vikings for blitzing him. The great QBs quickly diagnose what you're doing, and then punish you for it, whatever you choice was. Beating blitzes is definitely a skill and I wanna see JF and the WRs do it consistently. JF has no better way to make his case than to win in the face of a tough foe. Good. Let's see it! This will be a good game to watch.

who knows? its a VERY difficult question, and it'll be up to the GM and coaches. The thing Im saying is that unlike last year, where we were rooting to tank after the slow start, that because of Carolina's pick this year, Justin playing well helps us even if we still intend to take Williams because Justin's trade value increases OR we keep him and use those picks on other impact players.

I think the low blitz percentage was last season for the Vikings https://purpleptsd.com/2023/vikings/vikings-analysis/vikings-defenders-bli/

I think if you have the number one pick, you have to seriously consider drafting Caleb Williams, no matter how JF does. If JF has been balling out, then that's just MORE top draft picks or impact players for us in trading Fields. I said earlier that id try to consider a scenario where we'd keep Fields even if we had the first overall pick. it's hard to do, because even if Fields balls out, Williams is generational, and you can get picks for JF. Whatever happens, Fields playing better is good for us, especially when our most likely shot to the #1 pick is Carolina's pick. I'll also say that with a new coaching staff, or specifically a new OC, their opinion about Fields and Williams is gonna go a long way toward that decision.

yeah, and we can get a pass rusher in free agency.

I call it PFFt lol

it's like liking a coin flip when you call heads and it comes up heads LOL But AZ has it right - you watch the film and that tells you everything that stats cant.

of course this is ancient, but I hadnt heard that the players felt it too before.

Just saw this - Id never heard anything so direct about the McCaskeys before. We surely suffered as a result for many decades, I hope Warren is strong enough to keep them at bay.

absolutely!

I think it's telling that win or lose, when we do well, the other team is able to adjust at halftime and we cant overcome that and keep scoring.

he IS killing it. he's 28, so he has some left in the tank, but I dunno if he has 4 years of big money left. Being an NFL GM is NOT easy.

for sure thats gonna be part of it. But if you think Fields or Williams is the guy, that's gonna be a big factor too of course.

or a rotation with a Billings type for run heavy downs and teams, and Pickens could be that hybrid. youre right too about the offseason in the weight room. Both Dexter and Darnell Wright are "country strong" like you said, so next year they will truly be specimens.

Of course this is true. You never get enough good competition tape from college players. There are lots of things that Williams is doing better in college than most QBs did, but youre right you never know how it projects into the NFL. You made an interesting point earlier of what would Fields have to do for us to want to keep him. The hour is so late, but I'll try to think about what that could be. I'll try to set a threshold for my own decision. The biggest problem is that it will be probably be too small of a sample. And even if Fields is really good, I guess it really matters what your scouts say about Williams, even if Fields is doing well. Rookie deal, generational talent yada yada

agree on pad level, but his get off is on time 85% of the time now. yes!

and if they draft a first round QB, they cant keep Fields around. So all of this could end up being counter productive. Unless of course it just raises Fields trade value i suppose. it'll be hard to trade him if he's doing well, but if he becomes a decent pro QB, do we miss Williams? OR does Williams refuse to come here because Eberflus kept his job? Mixed and limited success here makes it all so foggy it could hurt us.

LOL just posted this exact same video and a description to the same effect on a new thread!

I saw this short YouTube video with every one of Dexter's snaps this week and no commentary - and best of all, it's less than 4 minutes long You can easily see that he's only late getting out of his stance on about 15% of his snaps now, and when he's late it's by a much shorter interval. It's clear progress from week one. You can also see that most of the slower starts happened early in the game. He got more comfortable as the day went on, and then as he was in purer pass rush mode, he was right in rhythm with the whole line getting off the ball. And the one time he was late out of his stance in the 2nd half, he ends up two gapping the run for a tackle at the line of scrimmage. That may have something to do with it, schemewise, I dunno. All in all, this is massive improvement. As far as his impact and play, he collapsed the pocket quite a few times. He was never moved backward. he got a few pressures, and knocked the QB down too. I would say he is already playing at a decent average pro starter level now. And if he can improve that dramatically that quickly, there is no reason to predict any particular ceiling on him. I was convinced that he was a nose tackle playing out of position. Now I see what Poles must have. He has nose tackle strength and great size, but he's got still huge untapped potential to be a real impact player at 3T. I wonder if we won't start seeing some notable flashes in the weeks to come from him.

Youre right, I was conflating the two games statistically. My bad! Im just saying, we shouldnt be crowning Fields yet. He still has a long way to go. And it's late. We need to make a decision on him after this year, and Im not comfortable keeping him and signing him to a long term deal for big money on the basis of a few games and the idea that he's still growing. In fact, Im not even comfortable not picking a high first round draft pick QB this year based on incremental growth either. He needs to prove it, and it's getting late.