BearFan PHX

hope so! Its something I saw a lot of in his college tape too. But I look at Tom Brady, and contrast his early tape, looking Montana-esque, spreading the ball around, making quick reads, but not particularly known as a long ball guy, vs Moss era Brady, where he was throwing dimes 65 yards downfield. So there is hope!

I would love to agree with this, but Lambert mostly repackages what other people say in tweets and interviews. I havent seen him claim anonymous inside sources in a while. But the overall point is well taken, you hear everything but Banks out there in the twittersphere - maybe because if youre gonna say something the narrative behind Campbell and Momebou is strongest, or maybe because people are being tight lipped.

yes that's it exactly. How many teams passed on Randy Moss, or Warren Sapp. I mean you gotta do your homework. You dont need angels, but you want to be sure youre getting Randy Moss and not Antonio Brown of course.

both. he needs coaching. he needs to see the play in rhythm, and he needs to be confident about when he should be looking long, and when he should be moving the chains. there are also a lot of plays where he did see the field, and got the ball out fast. so he has shown examples, bt I think on some plays, he wasnt confident in how the whole thing works. Johnson will be a great teacher for him in that way. And also, one real complaint I have about Williams, is that his long ball accuracy sucks. Fields threw a much better long ball, and so does Jaden Daniels. I'm not sure it's a big problem, and QBs like Tom Brady have increased their distance and accuracy quite a bit over time. So it is something you can improve, but I think it's Caleb's biggest weakness.

Green is a BEAST btw. We all don't talk enough about him I think.

Yeah, I dont think this time of year anyone has any clear view of what Poles will do. I believe stories that leak out 3 months after the draft possibly, but not now here weeks before the draft. Poles himself must have a pretty good idea, but still doesnt know, and cant control who gets picked ahead of us anyway. Some small facts might leak out; if they went to dinner with a player, or a player tweets something etc But Lamberts page right now is all rumors, and they are fun, but taken all together, we are absolutely drafting 15 different players at pick 10 LOL And Lambert NEVER says Banks LOL It's always Campbell or Membou. So screw him! LOL

Yeah, I get it too. I've fooled around with a few mock drafts, with the assumption that we dont need an OT, and there are a LOT of great players out there at 10 that could really help us. Jeanty would be amazing to have. There are DTs, WRs, Edge rushers, that could really make us hard to beat. Imagine Jeanty in a Bears uniform. I get the seduction of it. My buzzkill inner voice says "Dude, be disciplined and take Banks if he is there" and that makes sense to me, but its a little boring, I get it. Imagine drafting WR Golden, or the DT from Michigan, or many of the other top 15 players - it's hard not to see what Jeanty could do for this team. So I see the attraction, even for the Bears coaching and personnel staffs. I am sure Poles has had that warm feeling of Jeanty being the next great back for Chicago. Hard not to. But for me, I take Banks (if hes there) and then try to get Iowa HB Kaleb Johnson with one of our 2nds, and then the other one goes to help on defense, or a pass catcher be it WR or TE. It sure would be nice to see Jeanty, or Golden, or a monster on defense, and if you believe in Jones and Amagadje, you get to add that stud to our team. Then again, check out Kaleb Johnson's tape. He's really good. He's my HB2. And he could well be there at pick 39.

Yeah, you did the ONE thing I've found that I can live with to get Jeanty. Ersery in the 2nd. That makes this work for me. Nice! The edge from Ohio St would help us a lot too.

I agree he did hold the ball too long a bunch of times last year. Im not sure Caleb was holding on too much because of some slow internal clock, since there are also examples of him getting the ball out fast. I think it was more a matter of the game being a little too big for him to digest. I think we can Blame Waldron and Flus for this. As we all already know, they never watched film with him!! wtf?! There is every reason to believe that Williams will mature a lot this season. He'll get good coaching, good plays, and just an overall plan for success that he will understand his role in. I can't imagine how it was for him last year with no coaching support and a plan that made no sense. It's criminal. But it also means the sky is the limit, it HAS to be a lot better this year, just because of all the bad crap eliminated before you even add in this staff, the new OL, his brand new LT Kelvin Banks... LOL

100% right. For fun I had a conversation with Grok the other day who told me that Membou would make a great LT LOL - I asked it not for an answer, but to gain insight into how it would answer the question. Of course it looked at a bunch of websites and comments and repeated the narrative. I read an article once that had a really interesting point. The author said that one of the ways we judge intelligence in animals is whether they recognize themselves in a mirror, or do they continue to think it is another animal. And given that AI LLMs are trained on human data, when we have a human experience conversing with them, and some people are convinced that they are conscious, it's just an example of us failing to notice ourselves in the mirror, or in this case in the LLM repeating our own patterns back to us.

Hey Stinger, you might get a laugh out of this. Erik Lambert has back to back articles today saying the Bears will draft Jeanty, and the other saying they will draft Henderson. All within an hour of eachother. LOL My prediction is that the Bears will take one of 35 guys with the 10th pick if they dont trade down LOL

Right, that's what Im saying. You dont draft depth early as a rule, you draft early for starters, but because the DL rotates, you can have more than 4 "starters" so a crowded room isnt a reason not to take a highly talented player. You can always use more on the DL.

of course he isnt, Im just saying while you dont draft a bunch of positions early if you already have good starters, you can always find room for talent on the defensive line, even if you have an already crowded room. The Eagles gave us all a master class in that this past year. Someone mentioned above that we already have a bunch of names on the DL, and we've probably all thought that too, but if you believe in a guy, theres always room for one more. Thats all I mean.

Right, and you'd ditch any of them for Aaron Donald, so you're always looking for more until you have that all time great. Dexter is good, and ascending, but if you see that guy available to you int he draft, theres no reason not to take him. You can always add to the D Line if the talent is high enough.

Sanborn has a great work ethic. Hes tough, plays downhill, makes tackles. He's a "Rudy." Reminds me of Hunter Hillenmeyer or Nick Kwiatkowski. Great effort players, but too slow to play coverage. I think Allen requires that all his LBers be able to play coverage.

Yes. I agree. I think that Ersery and Conerly are both better than Membou. Simmons is injured, so who knows where someone will pick him. I worry that the best name at OT by pick 39 will be Grant from W&M and he does not deserve to be a high 2nd round pick. *IF* youre someone who thinks we need a LT this year, it drops off fast.

Just to make the point - the oddsmakers set the odds to reflect what the crowd thinks about each player. They want to get even money all around so they win no matter what happens. And the crowd of bettors does usually know something, but in this bet, media narratives are figured in because they affect the bettors' points of view.

so interesting. I dont love Campbell but id take him over Membou any day. membou is an athlete, but he doesnt finish, hearts not in it etc to my eye. I can understand the love for Campbell more than for Membou, at least at OT. I would take Ersery over Membou any day. Everyone sees it differently I guess.

right. every snap they take is one where Kyler Gordon isn't on the field.

I'm a little confused by this. I personally agree with you and don't think we will take Jeanty at 10, but how is a player taken at 10 a "load back," but if you take them at 12, then they can share carries with another player? Aren't 10 and 12 pretty much the same thing?

It is interest for sure, even if the scenario I described is what's happening. There have been years where the Bears drafted a player they didn't visit with, even as they visited other big names at the same position. We agree that they meet with players to gain information on them as possible picks. Thats for sure. They dont just waste the visits on nothing, we are agreed. But it doesnt follow that the pick is more likely to come from the list of visits? They may have their eye on a big name player they hope to get in the first round, and if things fall another way, the player is gone, or some amazing talent drops that cant be overlooked, then they want to know their options in later rounds, and these visits help that a lot. Also, they can be looking at depth pieces. So yes, a 30 visit absolutely shows interest, but not visiting with someone doesnt imply no interest, and if they are taken at pick 10, then the same position is much less likely to go in the 2nd round, rendering the visit moot. So the value of the visit is to scout guys you might take, but not necessarily will take. And of course, in a few years when they become free agents, if they were guys you liked for a reason, they might still be on your list and the extra info from the visit comes into play again too.

This is a really good question for going forward. Obviously a lot of players with high RAS scores do end up as high picks, even from teams that dont care about RAS scores but do care about productivity, since there is overlap there. But guys like Velus Jones in the 3rd round is a pure RAS or speed move. It will be interesting to see how the new staff, and prior experience, affect whether Poles stays as connected to RAS scores as he has. Great post.

Yeah i think all the Warren talk is to shine him up so we have possible trade down options.

same here if they pick Campbell with Banks still on the board. This is precisely what has led me to believe we are taking Banks or an OT - that position drops off faster than HB or DT in this draft to my eye. Taken alone, there could be lots of good options at pick 10. DE, DT, HB, TE, WR - all have players that could help us, and look good. But there is a barren wasteland at OT if youre not SURE Ersery will drop to pick 39. That's a huge part of why Ive been on the OT at 10 train. Its not that OT Banks can help us so much more than HB Jeanty, but that HB Kaleb Johnson for example or HB TreVeyon Henderson can help us more than OT Charles Grant?

Or it means they know they want an OL, and they wanna know scenarios in case their guy is gone in the first, trade down offers occur etc. And they could be looking at depth pieces too. Its hard to tell what they are actually up to this year more than most i think.