adam

Jackson posted several cryptic messages on social media, but all allude to him being gone from Chicago. So there is the first domino and Whitehair is probably next. Those moves will open up a ton of cap space and now we can project the need for a new FS in free agency or in the draft. Eddie started out hot, got paid and hurt. Unfortunately, he was a different player after the injury. He shied away from contact too much, and at times just seemed like the 11th guy on the field running around away from the play.

Based on contract values, it feels like getting the higher priced positions in the draft is better budgeting. Assuming the Bears have around $30M in cap space for FA spending (subtracting rookie pool, JJ extension at $20M, operating money $5M, cut Whitehair/Jackson), I think they could target some very solid starters in key positions without breaking the bank on one guy. I don't think they are there yet to drop $20-25M on a vet and go all in that year. That feels like 2025-2026. This year it would be DT or Edge but I think Poles targets the Edwards-type deals. Something like this: Using OTCs player valuation: 1. C - Brown for $4M 2. TE2 - Fant for $6M 3. FS - Dugger for $6M (or restructure Jackson's cap down to $11-12M) 4. WR3 - Samuel for $5.5M 5. Edge2/3 - Epenesa for $5M 6. DT - Jefferson or Jones for $6M With the cap only being the top 51, the Bears can obviously bring in a bunch of $1M guys without impacting the cap. You can also expect 1 or 2 other guys at 2-3M per as well on one-year deals, probably WR4/5, KR/PR, Safety depth, DL rotation, and maybe even RB (Ekeler's OTC Valuation is only $5M per year). Thoughts?

Yeah that was sort of a filler position for the extra 1st rounder in 2025, it could be DT or Edge.

Those are not the final stats. Here they are: Sanders: 298-430, 69.3%, 3230 yds, 8.5 Y/A, 27 TD, 3 INT; Rushing 111- (-77) yds, 4 TD Williams: 266-388, 68.6%, 3633 yds, 9.4 Y/A, 30 TD, 5 INT; Rushing 97-142 yds, 11 TD QBR does factor in rushing and sacks. Williams ended up with an extra TD per game, which is a pretty big deal. Sanders is an intriguing prospect, but that was his only year at QB, so he only has 430 pass attempts, which would have an extremely high bust rate. He went back to school to pad his stats and he should be one of the top picks in 2025. He is sort of overshadowed by his coach.

Oh yeah, I was trying to keep it simple for comparison sake. As you move down, you are going to accumulate a ton more draft capital.

As Mongo said, 1 slot in this top 10 is huge. It might be the difference between getting Odunze or Bowers or missing out on both by one pick.

Yeah, you are spot on, for Option 2 and 3, I added #38 from TEN for Fields as a ballpark draft slot: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams + #38 -> (#1) (Williams + Center) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #38 + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + WR2 + Center + New OT)

Is it me, or are these the main 3 options for Poles? Obviously there can be more trades but with just a single trade down with WAS, these seem like the paths Poles can go. Pick #9 is in play for all options so it is omitted, these are the differences in each route: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams (#1) (Williams) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + Center + New OT)

I am not saying money is a problem, but it is a huge consideration, and in order to have sustained success, you have to look out and plan 3-5 years out. If every contract was a one year deal, sure no problem, but some contracts are 4-5 years. Poles obviously has a road map and the entire path is predicated on players and their contracts. I honestly think Poles never envisioned being in this position. He was planning on going into Year 3 with Fields as QB in his 4th season with 2x new 1st round draft picks on the roster. Getting the #1 overall pick has changed things. Now he has two of the best options a GM can have. Keep rolling with the current QB and load up on picks or roll the dice, draft a new QB and reset the QB timeline. Drafting a rookie QB does buy him 3 years of a small QB cap hit. If he goes with Fields, he knows that he has to pay that big money 3 years sooner (in 2026) but would have more players on rookie deals. He can make it work either way.

What if ATL was willing to do something along these lines: 1. CHI gets #8, #43, #79 2. ATL gets #9, Justin Fields The difference in the picks and slot would equal Pick #29 (late first rounder) So the Bears move up one slot to #8, then get ATL's 2nd rounder and their 2nd 3rd Rounder. Atlanta moves down one slot in the first and gets Justin Fields. They got #79 for Calvin Ridley, so basically that plus their 2nd rounder (#43) and one slot in the first round for Fields. That would gives the Bears #1, #8, #43, #75, and #79 in the first 3 rounds. Atlanta would have #9, Fields, and #74

I think Fields situation is going to come down to financials, that will be the trigger. If the Bears tag or resign JJ, even with cuts of Whitehair and Jackson, they would be up against the cap with a Fields pay raise. So basically the Bears would have to run this back with no new FAs other than vet minimum roster fillers and new rookies. It is doable, but you need to stock up on early picks to replace your expensive vets. The Chiefs cap is comical next year. Mahomes is $57M, Thuney is $26M, Taylor is $24M, Kelce is $15M, Reid is $14M, MVS is $14M, and Omenihu is $11M. No other player is over $5M. So basically, the new framework with the outrageous QB salaries is $50M QB, 2x players in the $20M range, then 4-5 in the $10M range, then every other player on a rookie deal or making under $5M. The Bears ironically have a similar structure already, just without the QB salary, Sweat and Edmunds - $20M, Moore, Kmet, and Davis - $10M, and we are assuming JJ comes in under Edmunds but over Moore. That would be 6 non-QBs making over $10M just like the Chiefs. SF has low QB contract structure with 10 over $10M (1 even over $30M), but don't have to pay a QB right now. That is the other model. If the Bears don't make a trade before FA opens, but start signing 2-3 guys to $10M deals, we sort of know which way they are going because they can't afford those guys if Fields is going to get paid. 6-7 guys $10M or more = big QB contract 10-11 guys $10M or more = small QB contract

I doubt he would command anything beyond a late first, so it looks like the only two realistic options would be: ARZ - 27th, it's their 2nd first rounder, and they pick again at 35. PIT - 20th, could decide to move off Pickett/Rudolph/Trubisky, already a playoff team, just need a better QB.

I did add some of that for the first few picks, but not as much from 6->

Honestly, Nate Tice is pretty good. He has been critical of Fields too, and by this mock, thinks Maye is the way to go. I don't necessarily agree going Maye at #1 when the entire metaverse knows WAS would love Williams. Make them work for it. This could be the whole smoke screen they are doing right now with Williams, who knows. I am just not counting out Maye as I don't want to have the same feeling I had when I heard Trubisky's name, that was such a disappointment. The good thing is Maye had a lot more reps than both Trubisky and Fields in college and is only a RS Sophomore, is only 21 and would be just turning 22 before the start of the season. This is pretty cool to read about Maye: "Maye’s arm talent gives his offense access to the entire field. His work in the quick passing game provides his receiving options the opportunity to gain yards after the catch. Maye’s touch and arc on passes are impressive. He does a good job layering passes over the middle of the field underneath defenders." Well crap, these sites has him as QB1: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10089376-drake-maye-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-unc-qb https://www.profootballnetwork.com/drake-maye-draft-scouting-2024/

Just another data point, Nate Tice (son of Mike Tice) does a lot of player analysis, and last year he like Stroud going #1 as his #1 rated QB. This year, he says Maye is the clearcut #1. In his latest mock, he has the Bears taking Drake Maye at #1: https://sports.yahoo.com/2024-nfl-draft-top-10-mock-has-jayden-daniels-going-to-patriots-and-3-other-qbs-make-big-board-of-40-prospects-including-jj-mccarthy-153609292.html This is going to instantly bring up Trubisky comparisons, which as a fan, are hard for me to separate.

1 = 2+2nd+late 3rd or early 4th+future 1st 1 = 3+2nd+ early 3rd+future 1st 1 = 4+2nd+ future 2nd+future 1st 1 = 5+2nd+ future 2nd+future 1st+4th rounder 1 = 6+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st and blue chip vet 1 = 7+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st + blue chip vet + 4th rounder 1 = 8+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st + blue chip vet + 3rd rounder Last year Bears went 1 = 9 +2nd (61) + future 1st + blue chip vet (Moore) + future 2nd rounder

Atlanta at 2? Washington at 2 or Atlanta at 8? OK, I am assuming WAS, just a typo. Going off the more current trade value chart, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #40 is worth 149, and #94 is worth 41 = 907 + 2025 1st (121 = lose 1 round of value, average pick value) So 1000 (CHI) < 1028 (WAS) So I would say that would make sense. Where are you getting #94 from? That would be the 3rd to last pick in the 3rd round before comp picks. I think WAS has #101 in the 3rd from SF for Chase Young. That would knock the trade above down to 1021.

SEA FAs of interest: 1. Evan Brown, C, 28, played 91.3% of snaps 2. Noah Fant, TE, 54.6% 3. Leonard Williams, DL, 30, 76.2% 4. Damien Lewis, G, 27, 88.6% CAR FAs of interest: 1. Brian Burns, Edge, 26, played 77.2% of snaps 2. DJ Chark, WR, 28, 67.1% 3. Jeremy Chinn, S, 26, 27.1%

It depends if the Bears want to use draft capital or cap on that position. With both Herbert and Johnson still on rookie deals, they may go FA. Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler could be options. Now that the Bears have Waldron and Brown, I am going to look for FAs from Seattle and Carolina as those two would be intimately knowledgeable about guys from those teams.

Absolutely, just posting as they come in, there will be a lot of flip flopping. Here is George Kittle giving a vote of confidence towards Fields:

I think bringing in Warren was the game changer, there is a different level of separation than previously existed.

Kizer had 695 passing attempts and only played football for 2 seasons. That was all hype because of Notre Dame. For college he even had a pedestrian TD:INT ratio of 47-19 and averaged only 232 yds/g. That translates to 180 some yards per game in the NFL and fringe NFL backup, especially with so few reps in college. He had bust written all over him.

Lol, you know you are there when you are trying to determine what alcohol or drink "did it to you".

That's the thing. Aikman should've never been a HoFer, he never was an All-Pro, never won the MVP, and led only 1 4QC in 15 playoff games. His career stats are terrible, in 165 starts: 199 Y/G, 165 TD, 141 INT and a QB Rating of 81.6. He was on one of the most stacked teams of all time. He started his career 0-11 his rookie year. Even in his best season, he would fall 300+ yards short of the Bears Franchise record in a season. What is kind of funny is, he had Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Emmitt and Aikman never passed for over 3,500 yards. That Dallas team was so odd. They had double digit wins for 6 years straight from 1991 to 1996, yet their best record was 13-3. Having the best O-Line in football, one of the top 5 RBs of all-time and a top 10 Receiving Corps sure helps.

and on Flus lol.